760 entries in 0.545s
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Sure I offered a discount, and I tried offering you the same as well. A discount and a synthetic weight though are very different animals.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Well, it was a simple disagreement in pricing. Particularly how to price these things. We both disagree on how to do it.
moiety:
TheNewDeal: yeah i get a note when manul is mentioned so i just returned a picture.... like a manual manul bot, if you will :D
dignork:
TheNewDeal: dunno who blacked the names, somebody got the full list though
benkay: it's on the list of things to buy,
TheNewDeal .
moiety: i thought so too
TheNewDeal mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal i had something similar in romanian a few years ago
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Looked like a warning shot. I imagine actual violence comes later.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: It wasn't a long thing, seemed like a strong warning.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: You have to realize there is plenty of time for... externalities
BingoBoingo: mike_c: Wanted to purchase exactly what the bet could underwrite.
TheNewDeal wanted something better. Even if mike_c's payment would have been lower it was infinitely more attractive because the bet could underwrite itself.
BingoBoingo: This goes into the distinction between mike_c and
TheNewDeal trying to buy into my no bet against the same hard boundaries and only one of them speaking a language I could agree to.
davout:
TheNewDeal: yeah, that was amazing
mircea_popescu: <
TheNewDeal> I hope the price drops like a rock until that auction then just skyrockets back up << lol
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: That's because your screen plays favorites
BingoBoingo: ;;later tell
TheNewDeal I'm afraid I'm out of 'No' stake to sell without losing my excitement.
kakobrekla:
TheNewDeal you can always ddos some pools
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I'm telling you that Datacenters in the summer aren't pretty. Mix that up with Knc's generally sloppy build quality...
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I'm telling you with the diff bets you have to consider the externalities.
mircea_popescu: hey,
thenewdeal guy was pretty much spot on in theend ?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Maybe we wait a week. At the moment I think it looks like a bit like your side is more likely, but it is close to a coin flip.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I think you might be trying to complicate this thing more than it needs to be complicated.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: The Bitbet.py numbers are a bit off for these new bets because it figures the new sum into the No pile.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I think something about the math you presented for your example is wrong.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: So for 0.5 BTC of my no stake you would pay 0.? BTC
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I'm thinking rather than adjusting time weight which could create a bit of a pickle if a lot of large late betting acticity swoops in we consider the matter of pricing a 0.5 stake in terms of the premium or discount applied to 0.5 BTC to purchase it.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I'd actually be more interested in swapping a fraction of the no for a fraction of the Yes. If we are trading Bitcoin against the position... I'd maybe be interested in offering a bit of extra timeweight.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Assume we are hedgine and trading smaller amounts. Who would we price deciBitcoin portions of each position.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Yeah, but I usually like to survey the whole field at once. Creates a real appreciation of time weight
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: It's a simple tool. You past in the lines from bitbet and get the whole thing laid out.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Do you have a more interesting tool for calculating Bitbet outcomes then?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I'm curious, are you running Bitbet.py?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: It could though which is why the pricing of these things and how to do it is so important.
BingoBoingo: How do we go about pricing No at a weight
TheNewDeal versus yes at a weight?
mircea_popescu: <
TheNewDeal> but if they're bets are going to be a large portion of the gains/losses, it seems like investors would want to know what their history has been on the bets << you know investors can readily revbiew this as they're all published
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Sure. That's about half of the question's answer. What of instead of BTC for positions the trade was positions for positions?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Supposed you did, because we were both looking to hedge. How would this trade work?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: How do these arrangements work? Suppose I wanted to trade some of my no for your yes, how do we price these?
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal:
TheNewDeal Were you trying to trade Bastille Day bet Exposure yesterday?
TheNewDeal: updating
TheNewDeal's prediction to 6.3%
cazalla: don't sweat it
TheNewDeal, it's a lock
benkay:
TheNewDeal: care to take a guess at when the diff will finally reverse?
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal becase back when bitbet was invented we didn't have an0 yet.
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal now model a beting situation where you also have income
mike_c: so,
TheNewDeal: kelly says in the simple case (1:1 bet) to bet your edge.
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal: jeezus mp, there 23 footnotes in this article << I'm the king of the footnotes, the references V.I.P
cazalla:
TheNewDeal: they probably could but none are yet to try
mircea_popescu: <
TheNewDeal> I realize you had some troubles identifying entities that do in fact rent :D << well yeah, about a dozen orso argentine "experts" took two days to derp about with no results.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: You seem to be on the more likely side now.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: I nearly lost my nuts to trauma and infection in May, this is a minor problem by comparison.
BingoBoingo:
TheNewDeal: Not if there is a pending case against you that just won't quit...
Vexual:
TheNewDeal: quick as you like
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal: did I understand this correctly that the namecoin network hashrate is sitting at about half that of the bitcoin network? < it's mergemined
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal: "Mr Kyle lost Kylemax IPO funds, will he be dead or alive in 8 months?" << that ain't gonna work.
mircea_popescu: <
TheNewDeal> does anyone have any intel on who created the WTI bet / why? << intel ?
TheNewDeal: I'm going to put out
TheNewDeal's current prediction of 6.9% increase
peterl:
TheNewDeal: I think it was me you are thinking of with the gpg signed letter
mike_c:
TheNewDeal: true.. but i am seeing the same numbers as you. 45 ph/s
mike_c:
TheNewDeal: mergemining
bitcoinpete:
TheNewDeal: 3g/4g always gives fresh ip addresses me thinks
bitcoinpete:
TheNewDeal: ya and a bunch of hashpower skipped down like 2 hours before the reset
mircea_popescu:
TheNewDeal: are you a bot? <<< ahahaha epic. was waiting for it :D
mircea_popescu: ;;later tell
TheNewDeal if the network hovers at let's say, 1.1 %/day growth, what will be the hash rate on October 1st << what's wrong with 1.0011^x like sane people ?