log☇︎
17800+ entries in 1.259s
mircea_popescu: the good news is that based on 24 jhour data mtgox is down under 50% of volume
Bugpowder: better to go for a big spread on your bid/ask, and not get filled, then to go for a narrow spread and get stuck in a losing position having scalped 10%
Bugpowder: it's very tempting to shoot off about specific $ figures, but also stupid to.. Also, whether you are trading $1,000,000 or $100, your emotions are probably more coupled to what % of your net worth is on the line, rather than a specific dollar value
Bugpowder: 20% of my stack
Bugpowder: 5% of total stack in each
taub: nNotice how btc-e has been running on 50% gox volume the last couple hours without having "success"?
guruvan: tough if you need easy usd in or out, but you're trading for btc you can do well with trade fees only .2%
jcpham: the winklevii own 1% of bitcoin
ThickAsThieves: this is also conveniently when price was dropping this morning, bot was off, yet bitcoincharts was working fine, then bot comes back at 1000000% higher prices
taub: tiberiusiv> btce did 50% of mtgox volume today
Scrat: 1%, bah
Scrat: btce did today almost 10% of their total volume
Bugpowder_: 90% sure this guy is just confused
ThickAsThieves: nope 80%
mircea_popescu: o look! mtgox is doing 70% of all bitcoin trades!
Doffx: I was more trying to point out alternatives to just forking the chain with a 51% attack.
bgupta: So how much fiat would it take for a professional organization (think corp/gov) to develop an inexpensive mining ASIC, mass produce it, and run enough to get 51%? (Guessing the biggest issue would be time.) And what real defense does our network have against such an attack?
mjr_: do they not realize how easy it would have been to limit trades to 1 btc units? poof there goes prob OVER 90% of your volume, maybe you could handle that
taub: i want a 0% exchange that isn't exploitable >:D
joecool: lippoper: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?p0=1440&iso=20130412T02&year=2013&month=4&day=12&hour=2&min=0&sec=0&msg=MtGox%20Starts%20Trading&csz=1
Namworld: 90% accuracy. So much for generic statements
taub: 112, 10% spread
unbalanced: MP, other assembled Brainiacs... Is the only alternative to Mt. Gox to switching to other traditional (centralized) exchanges, one of which will swell to 80% eventually? Or is decentralized exchange somehow possible?
gesell: curl -s https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/BTCUSD/money/depth/full | python -c 'import sys,json;data=json.loads(sys.stdin.read()); print data["data"]["bids"]' | awk -v RS='{' '{print}' | tr -d '[]{}' | egrep "price_int': u'[1-9][0-9][0-9]{6}'," | egrep "amount': [1-9][0-9]{3}\." | awk '{print $2 $5 $6 $9 $10}' | sed "s/u'/ /g" | sed "s/[',]//g" | sort -n | cut -b 2-11 -b 18- && date +%s
MJR_: we were directly responsible for a panic that resulted in a drop of over 50%...we are just that good
ezdiy: punkman: sure the chargeback dont get through, the fraud rate is like 0.1-3% tops
punkman: perhaps you mean 20% attempted frauds
ezdiy: mircea_popescu: in average, its supposedly about 20% (cant find the source atm, but i assume you'll get similiar number if you google hard)
mircea_popescu: or you're fucked, in which they're closer to 100%
mircea_popescu: there is no system in this world with 20% chargeback rates. either you have a working system and chargebacks are a fraction of a percent
punkman: you can't have 20% chargeback rate, they shut you down
mircea_popescu: where exactly are chargeback rates 20% ?
ezdiy: simply, people being anonymous means that 20% of them will turn out to be scumbags
punkman: why 20%?
ezdiy: its 20% tax on fiat in/out
mircea_popescu: for 99% of people involved, their involvement is less than a decent meal.
mircea_popescu: but the thing is, to 99.99% of people "involved, their involvement is just saying the name
Scrat: we are the 1%
rikur: Bowjob: hehe, I'll wait a day or two to get hot dogs for -50% :p
Bowjob: 50% wednesday todaaaaaaaay
bgupta: should be interesting to graph the bottoms of all 30%+ drops..
mircea_popescu: this was more like +150% and back down 50%
mircea_popescu: so +60% then and -30%
mircea_popescu: and bitcoinica was a 20% selloff iirc
bgupta: so quesiton for old time traders.. other than the big selloff in 11 (and the "fork flashcrash") have we ever seen such a dramatic downward price move? Basically 50% as fast as gox could handle it
kakobrekla: http://jezus.si:81/render/?title=Bitstamp+and+Mtgox+market+values+-+1+hour&vtitle=Dollars&from=-1hour&width=500&height=250&until=now&areaMode=none&lineMode=connected&target=alias%28bitcoin.mtgox.transactions%2C%22Mtgox%22%29&target=alias%28bitcoin.bitstamp.transactions%2C%22Bitstamp%22%29
pgp: 105% chance it goes past 200
Bugpowdurr: 90% chance it bounces hard by 200.
Bugpowdurr: 60% of IPO now
deadweasel: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=gmail&attid=0.1&thid=13df4482057b77fd&mt=application/pdf&url=http://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui%3D2%26ik%3D1f86642556%26view%3Datt%26th%3D13df4482057b77fd%26attid%3D0.1%26disp%3Dsafe%26zw&sig=AHIEtbQVm6lPWHiUH0um9oxaFZF_KoRCog
MJR_: return over last 3 months...1000%
taub: As I predicted: BTC would hit $250 (+/- 1%) and then pull back (as we've seen to $211). This is very healthy bull market action.
bowjob: 500% apr thats like.. a
MJR_: 6.5408% that is the percent on Bitcoin loans
ThickAsThieves: I'm thinking price might not move more than +/- 5% today
MJR_: so, the credit market for margin trading is approx 1.75 million and people pay between 500% and 667%...
MJR_: 743840.76 at 667.165%
MJR_: almost a million dollars at 500% interest
MJR_: $960619.34 in loan demand at weighted average of 499.37%
ThickAsThieves: but you can look at the %
Bugpowder: Thus, if a few strikes are priced 8% cheaper than others, I should buy those
Bugpowder: in terms of % losses
Bugpowder: your options were 8% under the bot price
OgNasty: it's hard not to be making a killing when the price is going up 20% per day.
mircea_popescu: you know, s.dice loses every fgucking month about 50% of the bets made
mircea_popescu: taub we can settle on half of 10% :p
deadweasel: don't, i will hold minus 5% profit leak at intervals
MJR_: "IRL" 90% of options expire worthless
ThickAsThieves: i guess we need to start thinking % increase
Bugpowder: 15% of net in calls.
bowjob: and 3% fee, going down if you trade more
Bugpowder: Insaneatyou: 90% of the trades on exchanges are bots trading with each other.
jurov: although, even 1000% profit from such bet would be moot
rikur: I know, but since the weight was given against the Last of April, even last minute better get 50% weighted
ThickAsThieves: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q
bgupta: crash to me would be price drop of >50%.
deadweasel: .2% of people reply to nigerian scammers
gribble: Estimated percent change in difficulty this period | 16.76214 % based on data since last change | 13.877 % based on data for last three days
lippoper: a 98% chance of winning 1.004x return seems like a good bet
kakobrekla: goxlag http://jezus.si:81/render/?title=Mtgox+Lag+-+1+hour&vtitle=Seconds&from=-1hour&width=500&height=250&until=now&areaMode=none&lineMode=connected&target=alias%28bitcoin.mtgox.lag%2C%22Mtgox_lag%22%29
jurov: plus, ukto asks 10% fee on them
ThickAsThieves: i said fuck that i can make 8% in a day
ThickAsThieves: my wife was talking about investing in this new restaurant, they want $3000, 36month, 8%APR
Namworld: It's slow right? Not raising 10% every 15 minutes
ThickAsThieves: value is up 35% from 140, coins available is down 35%
BitHub: i need to get 100% confirmation
ThickAsThieves: 37% is roughly how much the price has risen i bet too
ThickAsThieves: there are roughly 37% less bitcoins for sale today than last week
MJR_: japan makes it super easy to see what happens...yen multi-year low, nikkei up 2%
mircea_popescu: seriously : it's a vanishinghly small irrelevant %.
mircea_popescu: as in, a 1 in 1000 shot at making 10% on your investment, and a 999 in 1000 shot at 90% loss of cvapital.
thestringpuller: for every call you own you get 100% additional leverage as the peice rises
MJR__: 100% agree
thestringpuller: i think that made 250% but only because it was so close to expiration
taub: it goes like this 99% of the time
deadweasel: 90% of the time tne best and hardrst decision is to hold and wait.
taub: its' less than another 50% move to 200
MJR__: but he may get +10%
Scrat: Diablo-D3: is the gain 10%? because you're adding quite a few jumps
mircea_popescu: the fact that asicvendors can optimise towards 50%