log☇︎
14600+ entries in 1.166s
mircea_popescu: anyway, in the case there : at the time the difficulty had gone up maybe 50% over 3 months, the dividends were mostly absent and the thing still traded "At price"
benkay: not epic at all. barely 4% of the way through known assets.
mircea_popescu: just by looking at them i can tell you they're at least 0.1% off
mircea_popescu: there was also a 400% and some 3xxish%
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids: 20% was the lowest ROC i found << unless you normalized to some absurd time interval (month ?) 20% is not the lowest.
mircea_popescu: well, if you model the same way it's 50% vs 100%
herbijudlestoids: maybe 0.5% is too much, thats 30 million people, you took me literally sir
herbijudlestoids: well the target audience is slightly larger mp, between 50% of the romanian population who are potentially interested (+ gay guys) versus what...0.5% of global pop interested in bitcoin?
ozbot: 2621404453.06462 | Next Diff in 1487 blocks | Estimated Change: 15.5173% in 8d 17h 20m 35s
herbijudlestoids: i.e. over any given 30 day window, 20% was the lowest amount difficulty grew and 100% was the largest amount
herbijudlestoids: 20% was the lowest ROC i found
herbijudlestoids: lets say i invest $100,000 into trading BTC assets like MPOE, and i make 10% in a year, am i supposed do $10k cash in hand?
herbijudlestoids: ah, as in difficulty rising faster than expected will mean it cant ROI? i guess so, the calculation i used assumed 50% increase/month in difficulty
jurov: and what' worse, ukyo hasn't paid out 92% of btc, again due to undisclosed problems
the20year: Especially when the F22 can do the same crap it does, with 10 year older technology for a unit cost that's 30% lower
theo__: ok, and is each share = to 1 vote in the company? so at the end of the day with you retaining 60% stock you always have the winning vote? or will you have your's as a vote of absence and decided only in deadlock?
mircea_popescu: nubbins` according to the onion, 80% of us adults get their news from the onion.
theo__: And you will have first dividend out on the 15th? Which if i look at it right will be averaging a ~3% yield because of the new IPO purchasing power not being included. This would be about right?
the20year: last time we had a vote to ask the direction of what shareholders wanted to do , it came back as 40/60 in terms of distribution (Re-investing 40%, distributing the rest)
the20year: Well, lower than many, we're only looking at around an average of 60% LTV
the20year: Some markets increased by say 500% in the US and then promptly crashed 450%
the20year: From the 2006-2011 collapse we decreased by around 25%
the20year: Well , during the 2001-2005 run up in prices, we increased maybe 30%
the20year: Additionally we're not overloaning properties, or going for absurdly low incomes, we could theoretically lower rents by 30% or more and still provide somewhat decent yields to invesors
the20year: theo__: Range of 13.44%-65% or so
mircea_popescu: can't fire people. can't evict people. the tax burden is like... 80% ?
mircea_popescu: for that token, maybe they got them 15% over spot.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder they deployed 6mn in capital, took it in the teeth for 10% the next day. sounds kinda chump-y.
mircea_popescu: yeah, only about 60% of all kids want to be the other kind. sites like that are fucking abuse.
asciilifeform: wonder if anybody's built one of those foolish 100%-premined alts, and passed out the coin via 'captcha' or somesuch.
asciilifeform: re: hallucinogen: http://img0.joyreactor.cc/pics/post/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%B0-quotes-786200.jpeg (translation: most often, the words 'you ought to try everything in life' refer to dope and porn acting, but much more rarely to quantum physics and chemistry' ☟︎☟︎
punkman1: it certainly can't continue going up 20% on each adjustment forever
herbijudlestoids: i must admit, in nov of last year when i randomly read a thread on bitcointalk where someone was asking for projections of how fast difficulty would grow into 2014, i scoffed at someone suggesting it would simply continue at 30%/month
ThickAsThieves: soon everyone may get their 6% payout
jurov: about 16% profit for mpex if they exercise now
herbijudlestoids: if the price goes to 500 but IV when puts were purchased was at 50% and goes down to 20% then the puts might still be worthless
asciilifeform: pankkake: printf("%x", foo)
ThickAsThieves: is keiser promoting maxcoin legal? i mean it's like 99% ponzi no?
mircea_popescu: i'll bet you an altcoin this thing isn't growing 1000% in three months.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: if i didnt think the company was about to grow by about 1000% i wouldnt be working here :)
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo %s vs last year ?
Mats_cd03: hes 99% incoherent usually
ozbot: New Survey: 79% Of Consumers Would Never Consider Using Alternative Currency Like Bitcoin (NASDAQ:TS
pLambert: mircea_popescu: if mtgox had suddenly shut down when they had 90% of the market the price would tank, now the price might slip a bit but not much
mircea_popescu: currently they're adding a few %s to the avg.
ThickAsThieves: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23whoisneo&src=hash
Namworld: Would anyone be interested in loaning me 290 BTC @ 10% per year, with collateral?
gribble: Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.: <http://trilema.com/>; Trilemma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trilemma>; Münchhausen trilemma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCnchhausen_trilemma>
Dimsler__: 1988-1990 had mortgages rates up to 16%
nubbins`: imagine, 18% interest on a mortgage
nubbins`: dad: "7.25% locked in for 35 years. a real bargain at the time, as rates soared to 18% at one point"
mircea_popescu: problem is... no. canada economy can't support rates over 5% , and won't. possibly ever in the history of canada.
mircea_popescu: i've like a 98% success rate so far.
nubbins`: seriously, $6 for non-organic cotton and $15 for 6.25% organic
nubbins`: i can buy a 100% cotton tee
nubbins`: still shrinks 3-5%
nubbins`: punkman1: for some reason, you can't buy 100% organic cotton tank tops.
nubbins`: 6.25% organic cotton and 6.25% recycled polyester
punkman1: so it only contains 6.25% organic cotton?
the20year1: 6.25% organic cotton because....?
nubbins`: who would rather fly 6.25% organic cotton tank tops in from the exact opposite end of the north american continent
ThickAsThieves: something like, 85% of bitcointalk thinks A is the right choice, thus B is more likely to be correct
Diablo-D3: https://plus.google.com/+UrsH%C3%B6lzle/posts/UseinB6wvmh
herbijudlestoids: because i have to explain to the tax office where the money in my account is coming from? and if i just say "selling bitcoins" then i have to pay 50% capital gains tax?
herbijudlestoids: these are models where the goal is to generate a ~10%CAGR over ~10y with low/no correlation to regular asset classes
herbijudlestoids: well, i guess all i can say is i hope you never experience a 1% adverse move when youve got a 100:1 open trade :)
ozbot: 2193847870.17428 | Next Diff in 0 blocks | Estimated Change: 19.4628% in -1d 23h 39m 51s
benkay: http://explo.yt/post/2014/01/21/MPEx%3A-The-Missing-Manual-6-Options
gribble: MPEx: The Missing Manual 5 - Account statements and transfers ...: <http://explo.yt/post/2014/01/07/MPEx%3A-The-Missing-Manual-5-(Account-statements-and-transfers)>; MPEx: The Missing Manual 1 - History and Registration - serialized ...: <http://explo.yt/post/2014/01/13/MPEx%3A-The-Missing-Manual>; serialized delusions: <http://explo.yt/>
herbijudlestoids: err <20%
herbijudlestoids: so the inflation rate went from >40% to <10%
ThickAsThieves: your % of worth in the world
mircea_popescu: if tomorrow i invent a new way to make cakes, and cake prices drop 95%
mircea_popescu: dub i bet you 90% of the ppl who read it because it's about doge never heard of dump and dillute.
nubbins`: more badass than 90% of rap videos
pankkake: 2% what?
mircea_popescu: 2% ? fucking hell, they cost money and do nothing.
mircea_popescu: -2.5% ?
herbijudlestoids: i think world GDP forecast <2.5%
chipug: i'm sorry guys but i see the forum like a daily soap or something. i can only find 8% serious
jurov: and if it will be ~ 1400 it will be ~50% loss
kakobrekla: 22:33.28 ( kingofsports ) I'd sell that option anyday. 400% gain in price in 30 days. VERY doubtful. < never happend in btc, ever.
kingofsports: I'd sell that option anyday. 400% gain in price in 30 days. VERY doubtful.
mike_c: http://explo.yt/post/2014/01/21/MPEx%3A-The-Missing-Manual-6-Options
jurov: http://explo.yt/post/2014/01/21/MPEx%3A-The-Missing-Manual-6-Options <<kingofsports
jcpham: here i am. I'm approximately 72% up the chain right now
Diablo-D3: er 50%
mircea_popescu: in the end, same story as their mother : -50% in half a year.
ThickAsThieves: you may take 6%?
ThickAsThieves: for how long can we keep up 15%-20% diff increases?
nubbins`: and were 100% turned on preserved foods by the time the big grocery chains moved in
nubbins`: plus newfoundland produces only about 10% of its own food supply, so farmer's markets aren't a general solution
herbijud1estoids: like i said, if i borrow a million for the endeavour of trading mean reversion model on MPOE at 3%, then my returns are only dependent on MPBOR in the sense that MPOE is the business handling MPBOR
herbijud1estoids: ThickAsThieves: i would check the model to make sure its not broken and if not probly trade on a volatility adjusted level...i like ~15%/pa STDDEV
mircea_popescu: accorfding to the largest stock in the marketplace it's more like 0.5 - 0.2% a year
mircea_popescu: according to discounted future cash flow approach it's maybe 0.01% a year.
mircea_popescu: according to mpbor it's something crazy like 1k% a year.
herbijud1estoids: if you think you have an edge and borrow a million dollars at 3% to implement an algo that trades this, then obviously your cost of capital is 3%+R&D
kakobrekla: the refunded the broken txes but now the success rate of making a withdrawal is even lower, down to 25%
Mats_cd03: when 99% of your revenue is from ads, you can do wutever you want