log☇︎
522000+ entries in 0.354s
assbot: Logged on 05-03-2015 16:51:02; ben_vulpes: http://www.jwz.org/blog/2015/03/google-seems-to-have-broken-email-forwarding/ << moar on google breaking the internet
adlai: it just changes the order of the letters
pete_dushenski: " the scytale, consisted of a tapered baton around which was spirally wrapped a piece of parchment inscribed with the message. When unwrapped the parchment bore an incomprehensible set of letters, but when wrapped around another baton of identical proportions, the original text reappeared. "
adlai: pete_dushenski: could be. scytales just rearrange the 'packets' of a message, whereas modern crypto jumbles the data within
cazalla: the other leftie type being.. amir/hippy types living in a hovel engaging in drug fuelled orgies?
cazalla: mircea_popescu, aren't the us lefties the type of lefties behind bitcoin wimminz day anyway
mircea_popescu: but otherwise, a lefty commune more likely to be nude than otherwise.
assbot: ECCHacks - A gentle introduction to elliptic-curve cryptography [31c3] - YouTube ... ( http://bit.ly/1aOq8Yt )
adlai: what's this about graphing curves?
scoopbot: New post on Trilema by Mircea Popescu: http://trilema.com/2015/mpif-fmpif-february-2015-statement/
cazalla: of course, i'm working on the assumption these are lefties who would be grossly offended at such an idea but you never know..
cazalla: got another retweet for the bits for tits trilema post.. this time by a bitcoin magazine for women.. ah ha, they don't even read, just retweet
pete_dushenski: "The aeolipile was a hollow sphere mounted so that it could turn on a pair of hollow tubes that provided steam to the sphere from a cauldron. The steam escaped from the sphere from one or more bent tubes projecting from its equator, causing the sphere to revolve. The aeolipile is the first known device to transform steam into rotary motion."
pete_dushenski: they had philosophers, but that's a different thing
pete_dushenski: and the romans were empire builders, not philosophers
pete_dushenski: atomic theory i knew, but steam engine ?!
mircea_popescu: they had the atomic theory, they had the steam engine, they had the works.
mircea_popescu: greeks, way ahead of romans and their spawn ONCE AGAIN
pete_dushenski: mircea_popescu aha you're quite right about the scytales. a variable diameter stick is really a fascinating way of graphing cryptographic curves.
mircea_popescu: the sooner they lose all hope the sooner their children can begin tearing up redditardamerica and building a livable space north of rio grande.
mircea_popescu: i think it's unseemly that they should be further encouraged.
assbot: Logged on 05-03-2015 12:47:00; punkman: flooding a nice forest probably not the best idea, but their argument rests on lousewort?!
mircea_popescu: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=05-03-2015#1042955 << their argument rests on some random schmuck who went in the field to "Study" it, introduced some seeds, claimed to have discovered the resulting plants and woe and behold, a redditard mattered! ☝︎
mircea_popescu: who is this, zhirinovsky ?
assbot: Harrison Ford -- Plane Crashes ... Actor Seriously Injured | TMZ.com ... ( http://bit.ly/1aOovK8 )
cazalla: i hate to link to it, but.. http://www.tmz.com/2015/03/05/harrison-ford-plane-crash-landing-golf-course-santa-monica/
BingoBoingo: Oh, is Harrison Ford kicking the bucket soon?
mircea_popescu: what's that mean ?
adlai: asciilifeform: 'x % kills' << this would be a totally meaningless epsilon for any 'perfect information bot' that actually acts on that information
adlai: gathering and interpreting actual information is a totally different story, and there's a huge amount of information that most/all human traders totally *ignore*, and that's as mike_c said - past order book movements
adlai: more personally, if perfect information exists, scalpl is truly a wild goose chase; i'm betting my time on perfect information not existing, and there being room for patience to profit off information fuzzyness
adlai: "market will go up" is different from "joe impulse trader will press the button once he sees N flashing numbers", and 'perfect information' requires the latter, which is for all practical purposes, random
adlai: the information isn't just hard to attain, it doesn't exist
adlai: calling this 'np-complete' is like calling ftl drive research 'expensive'
[]bot: Bet placed: 5 BTC for No on "BTC to top $500 before 1st May" http://bitbet.us/bet/1120/ Odds: 19(Y):81(N) by coin, 18(Y):82(N) by weight. Total bet: 89.8305122 BTC. Current weight: 72,075.
punkman: I don't think carnot cycle is a good analogy here
asciilifeform: sorta like the 'x % kills' (what fraction of the monsters you dealt with) shown at the end of a 'doom' level
asciilifeform: against which to measure the actuality.
asciilifeform: it tells you (or would, if could be written, but the most you can hope for is an approximation, as the problem - even with all the necessary data - is np-complete) the theoretical maximum that could have been achieved
asciilifeform: any more than carnot cycle is
adlai: there's a lot of interesting knowledge in the distribution of expected liquidity events given all other data on the market, but it's far from 'perfect', because it gives you, at best, a precisely calculated distribution of 'past performance'
adlai: because that is pure masturbation
adlai: the 'perfect knowledge' bot - are you using the word 'perfect' to suggest that it knows what _will_ happen?
asciilifeform: it's simply an elementary fact that you can't +ev your way 'from rags to riches' unless you know something other folks don't
adlai: nope, but it's a problem that individuals can tackle for themselves
jurov: (parametrizable) risk tolerance << and this is solved problem in finance?
assbot: Logged on 05-03-2015 21:02:54; mike_c: seems there ought to be some reasonable blockchain evidence one way or the other. don't we know the ulbricht address in question?
adlai: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=05-03-2015#1043164 << coins have moved on the blockchain, although it's trivial to fake this - if you control the coins. ☝︎
assbot: Logged on 05-03-2015 22:10:23; asciilifeform: incidentally, anyone ever try the exercise of writing a 'pefect knowledge' bot that tells you 'what could have been' ?
asciilifeform: adlai: http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=05-03-2015#1043325 << thread starting here ☝︎
asciilifeform: but trying to compare to the well-known thermodynamic optimum for an engine
asciilifeform: adlai: see earlier discussion about what 'carnot efficiency', if you'll allow the analogy, is for scalpl (or any similar machine)
adlai: specifically, scalpl's purpose is to produce the fastest possible escape rocket for a given (parametrizable) risk tolerance; once that technology is in place, it's just a matter of finding a market for which the maximum speed at your risk tolerance exceeds escape velocity
asciilifeform: jurov: i think i get what you mean
adlai notes to self to offer asciilifeform a seat on the escape rocket, should the clue ever be proven
asciilifeform: jurov: would you say that the 'thousands of chumps' are using your gizmo instead ?
jurov: having thousands of chumps pounding on on mpex accounts is just unthinkable, hence the fees.
asciilifeform: but i don't know who the users are and what motivates them
asciilifeform: i think i understand how coinbr works, and why
jurov: i'm trying to make do under some constraints, which i explained several time here ☟︎
[]bot: Bet placed: 2 BTC for No on "Bitcoin to drop under $150 before April" http://bitbet.us/bet/1123/ Odds: 9(Y):91(N) by coin, 10(Y):90(N) by weight. Total bet: 28.65000237 BTC. Current weight: 68,632.
[]bot: Bet placed: 1.5 BTC for No on "BTC to top $500 before 1st May" http://bitbet.us/bet/1120/ Odds: 20(Y):80(N) by coin, 19(Y):81(N) by weight. Total bet: 84.8305122 BTC. Current weight: 72,110.
asciilifeform: i just cannot know what they are.
asciilifeform: no issue, just the fact that i personally don't have any jobs for which coinbr is the right tool
jurov: can you pls explain the issue?
asciilifeform: or that jurov's gizmo doesn't function exactly as printed on crate.
asciilifeform: didn't mean to imply that it was.
jurov: well, that's not my business
asciilifeform: (but i know that it isn't happening with trading, because i'm not an idiot, so i don't trade)
asciilifeform: takes away what little point there is, no?
asciilifeform: jurov: nope. i'm not the least bit interested in low-frequency trading
jurov: nad you'd be fine with 90day delay to access them, too?
asciilifeform: gravity works this way, and so do other things.
asciilifeform: 'The Third Rock From The Sun can hold an atmosphere and your piece of cosmic flotsam can’t.' (from my article)
jurov: ^ this many shares you need to stay even
ben_vulpes: more effective to not do it and just buy btc.
asciilifeform: calculate, how much coin would i need to have on hand for it to be worth the effort in getting a coinbr account and making the gears go correctly
mike_c: well, plus he is incorrect. monthly volume is over 1% of total shares.
asciilifeform: jurov: bitbet is certain to make 7% dividend next month.. to buy it does not need any perfect bot.. but nobody does << this is because time is worth something
asciilifeform: (unlike 'redditicus' the impossibility doesn't irritate me in the slightest, i have other things in life to play with)
jurov: and they want to have" perfect bots"
asciilifeform: (unless someone noticed that he's a god, and gave him a bag of coin for lulz. but that's outside the rules of the gedankenexperiment!)
mike_c: jurov: just a poke at the frequency of dividend mistakes on that asset :)
jurov: so, nobody even reads the fkn reports
danielpbarron: sure feels that way
jurov: mike_c: have you read the last report?
asciilifeform: i merely suspect that no one, not even a god, could 'get rich' at 'investing' pocket change at mpex
jurov: bitbet is certain to make 7% dividend next month
mike_c: i'll leave it at this - you will come up with a number that is just as useful with public info as you would with non-public info.
asciilifeform can already picture how - if the 0.01 were enough to 'move between equivalence classes' in the orderbook
mike_c: ok, but that's what i'm saying. the god needs non-public info
asciilifeform: 'perfect info bot' is this abstract thing. a god.
asciilifeform: you would have done better than 'perfect info' bot << impossible by definition ☟︎
mike_c: bid climbs up, then down, then sale happens. if you had sold at higher bid you would have done better than 'perfect info' bot
mike_c: mm, not quite. because order book could have been better than price history at times ☟︎
mike_c: infinitesimal, no. but then you're 'perfect knowledge' bot isn't going to make so much anyway
asciilifeform: for small enough x, market has full depth at all times, no?
mike_c: well, I not only have a clue, i have the order book history :) ☟︎
mike_c: depends on liquidity.. maybe for mpoe. even there, not really
asciilifeform: folks with a clue - comment, would the result have any useful connection with reality ? ☟︎