sundun_: anyway i was thinking of investing in neo&bee
sundun_: but not sure if i should do it via havelock
sundun_: or via the lmbholdings site
jurov: so you aren't thinking about that anymore
sundun_: haha you're saying it's good that ive already decided to invest
mircea_popescu: at this point you'd have to be off your rocker to do anything involving havelock.
sundun_: what's wrong with havelock
ozbot: #bitcoin-assets log
sundun_: you want me to read that long chat?
jurov: virtex, havelocks biggest asset, went into trouble
fiat500: is the situation in cyprus really this dire?
jurov: sundun_: if you're srs with the inestment, prefer full infor over tldr
sundun_: azoo sure. they reorganised as a entity run by "no one", recently. after which they allowed their largest company (virtex) to simply walk away from the investors 12:57:29mircea_popescu:collected >4k btc this year, paid no dividends, is now gone.
jurov: they frame it as "exchange for real shares registered in alberta"
Duffer1: dundun_ if you're unsure of the offering or the exchange then just hold onto your btc for dear life, do not let go
jurov: but since it's CAD-denominated, it's as good as scam
sundun_: but i want to invest in btc buesinesss
sundun_: but alot of people have funds in havelock
mircea_popescu: Duffer1 has a point, and so does jurov. don't rush it.
sundun_: sigh i just sent half a bitcoin to havelock
fiat500: 4:04 PM <sundun_> but i want to invest in btc buesinesss
fiat500: 4:05 PM <sundun_> just not sure how
mircea_popescu: ll be very sorry after you lose your btc, better hold on to it.
fiat500: this is not the right way to look at it
fiat500: unless you are an amazing philanthropist :P
sundun_: sorry i'm super nooby i want to learn more >_<
sundun_: this chat's ai is kind of confusing
sundun_: or aesthetically unappearling
Duffer1: assbot has tourettes (amazing)
mircea_popescu: "i got no time and i gotta invest". H. Ellison's sequel.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 7 @ 0.24077142 = 1.6854 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 7 @ 0.2405 = 1.6835 BTC [-] {2}
sundun_: so duffer1 you invested in losing bitcoin stocks?
sundun_: and that's why you don't advise it?
sundun_: and the guys that you ivnested in
Duffer1: btc is almost certainly a better investment then X
sundun_: so everyone here does not want to invest in bitcoin securities?
mircea_popescu: <Duffer1> btc is almost certainly a better investment then X << ESPECIALLY if you don't really read/know what X does.
Duffer1: there are always going to be projects worth supporting
pankkake: if you don't really know or understand what the thing is about, if ANYTHING is unclear, don't invest
Duffer1: even if you do know what it's about, it's very unlikely to outperform btc itself as an investment
fiat500: dont just invest in btc "business" for the sake of doing it
sundun_: so are you guys not invested in btc securities :/
sundun_: you're saying that i shouldn't invest cuz i'm not completely knowledgable
mircea_popescu: they are, they just try to conspire to keep you away from the really good stuff see ?
fiat500: sundun_: why do companies list themselves on the stock market in general?
twizt: for initial capital
sundun_: financial support that they need to run business
pankkake: mircea_popescu: I've been accused to do that. same as mining
twizt: having facebook followers is support ;)
Duffer1: pankkake there is hope still, he did find his way here
fiat500: (also lets not consider cases where they are forced to because they've reached a threshold of stakeholders)
sundun_: i didn't think it would be a big deal to invest in neo&bee
twizt: everything is a risk sundun_
sundun_: don't invest anything you're unable to lose
twizt: just gotta make sure u if you should take certain ones or not
pankkake: the "can't afford to lose" is certainly tired, and highly incomplete. you have to judge what is the risk and the potential reward
pankkake: if you can get 10% if it works, but it has a 50% chance to work, it's way too risky
sundun_: mircea thinks havelock is a scam
sundun_: bc of all the failed securities
Duffer1: even if they aren't a scam just look at the track record of their offerings
Duffer1: they might as well be a scam
pankkake: I believe they don't have the best interests of shareholders anymore
fiat500: mircea_popescu: curious, say btcusd is at $40k, just to pluck a number out of thin air
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10400 @ 0.00090081 = 9.3684 BTC [+]
sundun_: i know it's been seriously failing
fiat500: do you still see mpex registration staying at 30BTC?
mircea_popescu: 30 btc will still be 0.00000003% of btc in circulation. it's not a high barrier by any means.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 115 @ 0.00289 = 0.3324 BTC [+]
pizzaman1337: I wonder if someday I'd ever consider selling my MPEX registration...
fiat500: thats a nice way to look at it
mircea_popescu: and if 40k is too high, then people should pay less per btc
fiat500: the accepted theory on deflation is it causes prices to drop, looks like you're having none of that (or dont care about USD exchange rate)
mircea_popescu: you're not buying something from me, you're proving something to me.
fiat500: the 30btc is your version of accreditation then
mircea_popescu: the financial half. you also gotta be able to talk to the exchange.
pizzaman1337: will you ever stop allowing new registrations?
pankkake: I already thought registrations were discretionary
jurov: pizzaman1337: only if you can find a provable way to forget your gpg key
fiat500: has the average investor done well on mpex?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8850 @ 0.00089936 = 7.9593 BTC [-] {2}
jurov: there were some amends for unlucky people who had expiration date set, but afaik not anymore
jurov: then it's 30b for new acct.
fiat500: "on average the MPEx investor buying discontinued assets exclusively made a net loss of about two percent over the course of a little more than a year and a half"
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 2000 @ 0.001 = 2 BTC
mircea_popescu: overall s.dice broke even on price and made bank on dividends, s.mpoe paid a little dividends and went up about 30x or so since listing
ozbot: MPOE bonds historical data, Dec 2012 - Nov 2013 pe Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
pizzaman1337: I'm curious to see what/if any affect X.EUR might have on things outside mpex/b-c
Vexual: the mention of suitcases in this channel will propagate to a web article on bitcoin>bin ladens
mircea_popescu: meanwhile : 84 cases of the plague w/ 40% mortality in Madagascar -- it has morphed from the original bubonic plague to pneumonic plague, easily transmissable...
Vexual: i told them not to open the vial
fiat500: i laughed my ass off at the thought of jurov having to shuttle briefcases of cash for coinbr uses
kakobrekla: its not suppose to be aesthetically appearling
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 22962 @ 0.00090319 = 20.739 BTC [+] {3}
jurov: pizzaman1337: if you used a cardano for mpex trade, then it would be feasible to sell the acct
mircea_popescu: now this is true. course is risky, if your key falls in the fucking pit and dies, you're sol
jurov: but no it would not. you could have PUSH prepared for later execution
mircea_popescu: if you know what your shit will be like atg the time of demise.
mircea_popescu: (trivial to code into your pympex or w/e you use, obviously)
jurov: i can just sign PUSH|addr|9999999 for all assets?
jurov: hmmmmmmm.... so a bunch of smaller then
jurov: no need to extract the keys, prepared in advance PUSH will do
jurov: Vexual: asciilifeform posted a paper exactly about that yest
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform so suppose i want to extract the key so i can make a mpex acct and sell it ands then later steal the guy's shit. how do i do it ?
Vexual: nintendo has that exopy that will cunt up a chip if you try to get it off
dub: so, we need a new wot btw
pizzaman1337: mircea_popescu: you could pre-sign push commands for 1 satoshi a few billion times (or withdraw commands, or whatever)
ozbot: Rating Details for User 'stamit'
dub: story is this guy has some kind of personality issue where he can
dub: 't get over one person (gmaxwell) being a fuckwit
dub: so he rants a little bit, makes a nuisance of himself in a couple of channels
dub: gmax and shilltown negrate him
dub: rules say if your trust web with nanotube is <0 you can't use the system
dub: mircea_popescu: gmax shil, 12 year old operator in 0otc
dub: its spilled out of -otc but basically
mircea_popescu: so the argument that wot is broken says that you can't rate unless you're above 0 and idiots can get you below 0 ?
dub: key is that nanotube has a Trust Cabal effect
mircea_popescu: the counter to this is that if you don't do this, anyone can end up -infinity by the effect of endless socks
mircea_popescu: "I haven't traded with this guy, but I've heard from people I trust that he has used legal intimidation to force censorship of people's ratings of him. "
mircea_popescu: since when is retardtown preoccupied with censorship lol
dub: 'derp derp derp doing this will make gmaxwell like me'
mircea_popescu: or is it one of those, "we can't stand censorship that's not directed at the enemy"
dub: stamit is weird and has entitlement issues in that he thinks being a bag of air breathing meat entitles him to some basic rights
mircea_popescu: dub the funny thing is, gmaxwell himself is like 3 angry people away from oblivion
nubbins`: thing about the wot is that most of the ratings are less than useless
mircea_popescu: nubbins` thing about this world is that most of everything in it is less than useless.
mircea_popescu: same is true of houses, women, puppies, clouds, wjhat have you
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform nobody reallty uses the global totals that's sane
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: even the puppies? D;
mircea_popescu: well it used to be a 0 total, apparently nanotube improved it so it's 0 to him
mircea_popescu: since he runs gribble there's some sense to this (as grible could reasonably use his rating to see the world)
mircea_popescu: i suppose a decent solution for this is for an interested 3rd party to make dubble, which looks from dub's perspective
nanotube: all the code is foss. wanna spin up your own bot, nobody's stopping you.
nanotube: it was just an expedient method to stop rating spam/shilling in its tracks.
mircea_popescu: no matter what you do you'll end up with this tradeoff.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.00090275 = 1.1736 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: you know exopy is much cuter than epoxy. i wonder why they didn't call it exopy.
assbot: [MPEX:S.MG] 1D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 0.000115 / 0.00011508 / 0.000155 (3000 shares, 0.35 BTC), 30D: 0.0001 / 0.00014023 / 0.00016 (98322 shares, 13.79 BTC)
assbot: [HAVELOCK:SMG] 1D: / 0 / (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 0.00010025 / 0.00013905 / 0.00020000 (19055 shares, 2.64967247 BTC), 30D: 0.00005778 / 0.00011754 / 0.00020000 (74621 shares, 8.77068209 BTC)
nubbins`: exopy describes how complicated it is to find the exits
nubbins`: fire marshals use it when inspecting buildings
nubbins`: "i'm rating this guy -10 because he scammed wrinklemonster"
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: speaking of ratings, how about giving me some love one of these days?
gribble: You have not yet rated user nubbins`
ozbot: Rating Details for User 'tim-tams'
mircea_popescu: ;;rate nubbins` 2 One of the first Stock Warrant holders.
gribble: Rating entry successful. Your rating of 2 for user nubbins` has been recorded.
nubbins`: "ident with gribble or you're getting banned in 60 seconds"
mircea_popescu: fucking historical too, like some guy goiing "o yeah, and then i bought the 3rd share printed in the us"
nubbins`: you have any idea how fucking hard it is to auth in 60 seconds? D;
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: i still have plans to make a nice print of it some day
nubbins`: cutting my teeth on a related project right now
mircea_popescu: depending how your offline stuff is set up you might not even be able to log in 60 seconds.
mircea_popescu: dub definitely sockies, 2 days after he negged a scammer.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIF] 701 @ 0.00049999 = 0.3505 BTC [+]
nubbins`: just kind of odd to see people selling metals for btc these days
benkay: almost as odd as physical bitcoins, eh?
nubbins`: ah, i guess i'm just making the assumption that he initially bought these metals with btc
nubbins`: well, the alternative (that he's buying btc with fiat via PMs) makes a lot more sense
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 9 @ 0.02316222 = 0.2085 BTC [+] {4}
nubbins`: i guess never really occurred to me, as i've only done the opposite
mircea_popescu: the uppitty tortilla character supposedly got into btc by trading his silver stash
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5900 @ 0.00090275 = 5.3262 BTC [-]
nubbins`: i had bought about $2000 worth of btc before i realized that it made far more sense to sell goods and services for btc
nubbins`: i think the first thing i sold was a btc logo t-shirt
kakobrekla: "get me some sushi and some raw usagi! And bring a spoon, cant put my eyes out with these sticks even if i wanted"
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1615 @ 0.00090364 = 1.4594 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12100 @ 0.00090366 = 10.9343 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: apparently google imaging "site:trilema.com tits" and other dirty words yields a bevy of cool stuff.
mircea_popescu: i guess now i know what i'll be doing when i'll be a dried up geezer.
diametric: mircea_popescu: yeah i don't know if you realized, but you left directory indexes on
diametric: mircea_popescu: so i take it you've been informed of my digital fabrication abilities?
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo "Well this is somewhat embarrassing, isn’t it?"
pankkake: I wget -r trilema but besides a few old blog headers nothing much interesting
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: No doubt, but embarassement is a force of education
BingoBoingo: I usually just left click links. I forget that there's 800 different ways to move them from the IRC client to the browser.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3500 @ 0.00090444 = 3.1655 BTC [+]
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: No, It's a scrypt altcoin, roughly 100 billion coins if I counted the zeros right glancing at it.
jurov: and someone is actually pumping it
nubbins`: "what is with the digger built into the QT. I never got it running, always said no dig such fail."
mircea_popescu: actually block rewards equal to say the 5th digit of the nonce are an interesting idea
pankkake: stupider coins have been created
pankkake: coins made to be bad got traded
mircea_popescu: basically, the longer a block interval, the lower the reward
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11350 @ 0.00090444 = 10.2654 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 500 @ 0.00295017 = 1.4751 BTC [+] {6}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9847 @ 0.00090366 = 8.8983 BTC [-]
pankkake: haha nice. even the username is funny
ozbot: Coined Up - The FREE Crypto-Only Currency Exchange
frb: a coin whose only redeeming feature is that it is named after an internet meme
frb: what could go wrong?
the20year1: Is it possible to tie a new altcoin to btc addresses?
the20year1: It'd be pretty cool to spawn off an altcoin backed by real estate through our bitcoin realestate business, but i don't know of any viable way to do it
BingoBoingo: benkay: That has to be the saddest site on the internet
BingoBoingo: benkay: There is a distinct difference between badness and sadness as a question of being different kinds of properties.
benkay: BingoBoingo: i don't know that i buy asciilifeform's ball-o-mud argument on urbit yet. given enough traction wouldn't it make sense to rewrite the important bits for fpgas or what have we?
benkay: granted i don't know anything about anything, and there's the whole keyboard and display thing to deal with
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3050 @ 0.00090366 = 2.7562 BTC [-]
BingoBoingo: benkay: Well You can spec a Turing complete language on a napkin in the bar. What takes time is building an implementation that runs on something. For most applications now, the various *nix's are going to be the best things available. If you want to write a new future of computing though instead of inventing Urbit someone could have just as well made a *nix that only offered as a Userland GNU Guile. It seems to me the Closest thi
BingoBoingo: ng to Urbit and the thing that highlights its futility is Clojure.
benkay: the20year1: what on earth do you mean by 'tie a new altcoin to btc addresses'?
BingoBoingo: nubbins`: Why not, give me some time to set up the board
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Bootstrap could make it sadder.
nubbins`: great, we'll get gribble to flip
BingoBoingo: I'll take tails since you know the flippage
gribble: Error: "flip" is not a valid command.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9100 @ 0.00090444 = 8.2304 BTC [+]
nubbins`: many flip, so dispute resolution
benkay: BingoBoingo: babes have arrived, i'll grill ya later
pankkake: what year was the worst thing that happened to the U.S. dollar?
nubbins`: i can recall trading cad:usd at like 1.4:1 before going on vacation as a kid
benkay: asciilifeform: why is that? do forgive my complete ignorance of the domain...
randomcloud: Something-something you can play chess here?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 20850 @ 0.0009032 = 18.8317 BTC [-] {4}
benkay: asciilifeform: doesn't immutability also help averagely-talented software teams operate in highly threaded environments?
nubbins`: asciilifeform: quitting something and giving it up are two different things, i guess ;D
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2800 @ 0.00090275 = 2.5277 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6900 @ 0.00090196 = 6.2235 BTC [-]
benkay: asciilifeform: doesn't shitty code that gets hardware deployed against its performance problems carry more responsibility for that?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7250 @ 0.00090444 = 6.5572 BTC [+]
benkay: ah so you object to urbit's low-level immutability
nubbins`: thought i'd try stirring up the pot early
nubbins`: really it was that whole bishop/knight/queen trade that did me in, i think
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6900 @ 0.00090444 = 6.2406 BTC [+]
nubbins`: i'd play again if you're up for it
nubbins`: yeah, go ahead. i'll call heads
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 120 @ 0.001 = 0.12 BTC
ozbot: JPMorgan's "Bitcoin-Alternative" Patent Rejected (175 Times) | Zero Hedge
benkay: is this the layer on top of the credit card processing system thing?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4700 @ 0.00090196 = 4.2392 BTC [-]
nubbins`: i think you already have N on f6
nubbins`: yeah, just after 2nd last assbot
nubbins`: they have this vodka that comes in a glass skull here
nubbins`: well i guess 3-0 all total at this point
BingoBoingo: For the night. Career I believe it is 4-0, someone else played a game at a point
BingoBoingo: I lose a bunch IRL though. And back when CoinChat was a thing I lost quite a few games there
BingoBoingo: I don't know that Castling through check is legal...
BingoBoingo: I believe that would be actively castling into check...
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00090196 = 4.5098 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5200 @ 0.00090444 = 4.7031 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 20350 @ 0.00090469 = 18.4104 BTC [+] {2}
BingoBoingo: nubbins`: Pretty sure moving that Bishop opens you to check...
ozbot: Loper OS » The Alert Reader.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16250 @ 0.00090551 = 14.7145 BTC [+] {2}
BingoBoingo: I completely forgot the King could take pieces when I went Qd1
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 41900 @ 0.00090113 = 37.7573 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 16 @ 0.24075319 = 3.8521 BTC [+] {5}
nubbins`: yeah, i'm officially done with chess for the night
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 20 @ 0.05 = 1 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 26 @ 0.24946149 = 6.486 BTC [+] {5}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 100 @ 0.05 = 5 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 8 @ 0.24999998 = 2 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 4 @ 0.25 = 1 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4435 @ 0.00089935 = 3.9886 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 5 @ 0.25 = 1.25 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 31450 @ 0.0008992 = 28.2798 BTC [-] {3}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5100 @ 0.0009027 = 4.6038 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 8 @ 0.08302499 = 0.6642 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 13 @ 0.05 = 0.65 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10600 @ 0.0008987 = 9.5262 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7950 @ 0.0009027 = 7.1765 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 10 @ 0.05 = 0.5 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 250 @ 0.00230002 = 0.575 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 26 @ 0.0228 = 0.5928 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 340 @ 0.00296899 = 1.0095 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 258 @ 0.00296996 = 0.7662 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 24840 @ 0.00089845 = 22.3175 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 675 @ 0.00297781 = 2.01 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 300 @ 0.00297861 = 0.8936 BTC [+] {4}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 107 @ 0.00298 = 0.3189 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 70 @ 0.00238998 = 0.1673 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 21350 @ 0.00090223 = 19.2626 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 17200 @ 0.00090311 = 15.5335 BTC [+] {4}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11752 @ 0.00089777 = 10.5506 BTC [-] {2}
komododragon: running the late shift tonight again you fucking mut
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 210 @ 0.00230381 = 0.4838 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12400 @ 0.00089756 = 11.1297 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 100 @ 0.05 = 5 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 10 @ 0.02375 = 0.2375 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 10 @ 0.02429898 = 0.243 BTC [+] {4}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10625 @ 0.00089883 = 9.5501 BTC [+]
gribble: Request successful for user newguy, hostmask newguy!~truerelig@180.191.169.190. Your challenge string is: freenode:#bitcoin-otc:801499a6e823efeda47d85dcc68470a283c226f35d4597682b2c2414
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5319 @ 0.0009029 = 4.8025 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12617 @ 0.00089994 = 11.3545 BTC [-] {2}
ASAPCA: i swear to fucking god
ASAPCA: you better stay up with me
ASAPCA: now that I got my hands on you
ASAPCA: you never got in our way
toronto: MAYBE NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6895 @ 0.00090361 = 6.2304 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3255 @ 0.00090392 = 2.9423 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2124 @ 0.00089881 = 1.9091 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9250 @ 0.00090184 = 8.342 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10516 @ 0.00089747 = 9.4378 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3534 @ 0.00089584 = 3.1659 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5782 @ 0.00090063 = 5.2074 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6850 @ 0.00089974 = 6.1632 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14250 @ 0.00089584 = 12.7657 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15718 @ 0.00090128 = 14.1663 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5732 @ 0.00090185 = 5.1694 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9050 @ 0.00090238 = 8.1665 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 13200 @ 0.00089643 = 11.8329 BTC [-] {3}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7500 @ 0.00089863 = 6.7397 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7800 @ 0.00089489 = 6.9801 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6900 @ 0.00089863 = 6.2005 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11700 @ 0.00089476 = 10.4687 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9351 @ 0.00089476 = 8.3669 BTC [-]
Apocalyptic: i call him out, he's our usual scammer in -otc
Apocalyptic: and started creating fake accounts to negrate me
gribble: Error: "other" is not a valid command.
lyspooner: and do i understand the specifications correctly that davout will be responsible for defining delivery details?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4055 @ 0.00089476 = 3.6283 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15512 @ 0.00089469 = 13.8784 BTC [-]
jurov: he prolly means the lot
mircea_popescu: Apocalyptic you getting a lot of that in -otc these days huh ? i see Azelphur negging people, that's a rarity.
mircea_popescu: <lyspooner> and do i understand the specifications correctly that davout will be responsible for defining delivery details? << within reason and in advance.
lyspooner: so i buy 1 x.eur, hold it to expiration, and then davout gives me 1 eur
jurov: and MKFUT does work on x.eur with 1.8 EUR collateral equivalent?
mircea_popescu: at expiration you can either take 1 euro in cash if you go through the delivery process or have it rolled to next month's x.eur
mircea_popescu: but you can contact davout, and deliver euros to him on bc, which arrangement he may accept
lyspooner: i could bankrupt davout by buying several instances of 1 euro from davout, holding them to expiration and having him wire me 1 eur at as many bank accounts as i have contracts
mircea_popescu: this obviously being a mm feature, don't expect it to happen for 7.8 eur or some bs
mircea_popescu: anyway, the phys delivery is mostly there to keep things honest. unlike all the bucket shops running a soft-settled only "future"
lyspooner: because delivery specifications are made by a single-market maker, this contract will always guaranteed to have a single seller?
lyspooner: but davout is responsible for his delivery specs, which might differ from, say, mine
lyspooner: how will a buyer know whome he is facing ?
jurov: we'll have to wait for official announcement with the specs.. or was it done already?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14475 @ 0.00089656 = 12.9777 BTC [+] {3}
lyspooner: so mpex will not take responsibility for davout or anyone else's failure to deliver?
mircea_popescu: (c) The Market Maker will make a deposit of BTC with the Exchange, on the basis of which the Exchange will create a number of X.EUR contracts in the Market Maker's account, by the criterion of the weighted spot price rounded to the lowest 10.
lyspooner: so if you choose 5 market makers for the product, each with their own delivery specification, the buyer of the contract faces all of the different mm's
mircea_popescu: (a) The Market Maker will immediately notify the Exchange should observance of the terms of this contract become impossible for the future. Should such notification be received, the Exchange will distribute the Market Maker's deposit to contract holders, in proportion of the number of contracts they hold but not in excess of the implied spot value rounded to the lowest 10. This distribution will constitute the sole rem
mircea_popescu: edy for contract holders from the part of the Exchange.
mircea_popescu: lyspooner that is one way to run it. there's no guarantee it'll be the way it's run.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 3 @ 0.05 = 0.15 BTC
lyspooner: so if i buy 1000 contracts at .0015 and the future expires at 10,000,000 eur on the final settlement day, and the short can't give me 10 billion euros, what do i get?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 65 @ 0.00298 = 0.1937 BTC [+]
lyspooner: ah ok, i've been look at icbit too long
lyspooner: there's still something gross about the delivery specs being different from mm to mm
mircea_popescu: no there isn't. you've been looking at eurodollars too long.
lyspooner: imagine i buy 100 contracts while there is a single market-maker, davout, because i am comfortable with his terms of delivery
mircea_popescu: anyway, the mm deposit could have been in either of the pair, but btc seems safer.
mircea_popescu: admittedly there could still exist an edge case where the mm splits and the holders book a loss
mircea_popescu: lyspooner certainly all changes are announced before the contract trades. this is sacred.
lyspooner: you couldn't allow a second market-maker
lyspooner: in the case where the mm splits or dies or forgets everything or worse, then the longs eat the crap
mircea_popescu: well suppose the mm gets 1mn contracts, by depositing 1560 btc.
mircea_popescu: that COULD be worthless, obviously. and it'll have to be accounted for.
mircea_popescu: still, on one hand it's a much better liquidation event than either the best or the most recent non-mpex liquidation event, on one hand
mircea_popescu: and it's practically better than the alternative (hold 1mn euros which also COULD be worthless)
lyspooner: he would sell 1mn contracts, and in the case that bitcoins were worth less than 1 eur and he didn't hedge himself, he would owe 1mn EUR. he would run off and people would get near worthless bitcoins
mircea_popescu: of course, what he says is that he's not going directional, and it makes sense for him not to, if he knows his business,
mircea_popescu: and moreover he has the means to go delta neutral as he has ready access to a spot market.
lyspooner: nonsense in what way? it prevents the situation i just described
mircea_popescu: i tell you euro will turn worthless in the next ten years a degree of magnitude more often than btc will
lyspooner: shorts post euros, longs post bitcoins
lyspooner: the good exchange will pick that format
lyspooner: until then you have recreated icbit's downside problems
mircea_popescu: looky, economy is built on trust and people doing their job. it's not really built on "making it impossible" for people to default.
mircea_popescu: making it obvious when someone defaults and making responsibility stick for defaults is good enough.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15600 @ 0.00090117 = 14.0583 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 104 @ 0.00238994 = 0.2486 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 196 @ 0.00239751 = 0.4699 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.25275 = 0.5055 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 2500 @ 0.00284938 = 7.1235 BTC [-] {11}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.251 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 24716 @ 0.00090256 = 22.3077 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 30 @ 0.05 = 1.5 BTC {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9043 @ 0.00090334 = 8.1689 BTC [+] {3}
gribble: Current Blocks: 275236 | Current Difficulty: 9.08350862437022E8 | Next Difficulty At Block: 276191 | Next Difficulty In: 955 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 5 days, 1 hour, 54 minutes, and 53 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1116079088.26 | Estimated Percent Change: 22.86872
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14773 @ 0.00090383 = 13.3523 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 500 @ 0.001 = 0.5 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.25 = 0.5 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 25 @ 0.05 = 1.25 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12200 @ 0.00090354 = 11.0232 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [COG.F2] 1 @ 0.50000001 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12250 @ 0.00089975 = 11.0219 BTC [-]
gribble: Next difficulty estimate | 1115862283.67 based on data since last change | 1184576457.35 based on data for last three days
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00089951 = 4.4976 BTC [-] {2}
jurov: TAT you made out on idiffs like a pig, don't cry now :D
ThickAsThieves: actually the amount lost here is probly very close to amount gained on idiffs
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 301 @ 0.002845 = 0.8563 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 415 @ 0.00279697 = 1.1607 BTC [-] {5}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [NEOBEE] 49 @ 0.00265123 = 0.1299 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3300 @ 0.00089803 = 2.9635 BTC [-]
ozbot: Twitter / Heineken: Our vision of the future? Drink ...
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.255 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [COG] 10 @ 0.04199999 = 0.42 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 5 @ 0.25 = 1.25 BTC [-] {4}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 24700 @ 0.00090163 = 22.2703 BTC [+] {4}
taub_: hehe surprise guys let me raise the fees on my super active traedign platform to 0.3%
taub_: without giving you any warning
taub_: because i'm chinese
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 20 @ 0.05 = 1 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5750 @ 0.0008986 = 5.167 BTC [-]
gribble: mircea_popescu was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 2 hours, 26 minutes, and 29 seconds ago: <mircea_popescu> ;;bcstats
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1000 @ 0.00089803 = 0.898 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16000 @ 0.00089791 = 14.3666 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2291 @ 0.00089806 = 2.0575 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [COG] 3 @ 0.042 = 0.126 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 473 @ 0.05 = 23.65 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 12 @ 0.02489999 = 0.2988 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3359 @ 0.00090108 = 3.0267 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 1000 @ 0.001 = 1 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 13893 @ 0.00090047 = 12.5102 BTC [-]
mike_c: coinbase is 1% too, although they aren't really an exchange.
gesell: whats the reason for the current crash?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 5132 @ 0.00009079 = 0.4659 BTC [+] {4}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 14654 @ 0.0000871 = 1.2764 BTC [-] {5}
jcpham: you would crash too if it happened to you
gribble: Current Blocks: 275265 | Current Difficulty: 9.08350862437022E8 | Next Difficulty At Block: 276191 | Next Difficulty In: 926 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 4 days, 20 hours, 21 minutes, and 21 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1115703052.32 | Estimated Percent Change: 22.82732
pankkake: it's 1002 if nothing gets added
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10231 @ 0.00090013 = 9.2092 BTC [-] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5900 @ 0.000896 = 5.2864 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 10 @ 0.0499 = 0.499 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4950 @ 0.00089763 = 4.4433 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SFI] 500 @ 0.001 = 0.5 BTC
diametric: seems like the market is in full panic sell mode right now.
mike_c: buffet says this is a good time to be greedy
pankkake: is there a non-panic mode in bitcoin?
diametric: ahh also btc china has enacted a trading fee now
Duffer1: btcchina not allowing fiat withdraw (rumor)
mike_c: well, its posted on their site that they are requiring identification now
pankkake: well then it shouldn't crash at all
mike_c: heh, right. the gox effect.
mike_c: but now you get to enjoy the anticipation of being a billionaire again.
mircea_popescu: now you're in... now you're out. back in... back out...
mircea_popescu: was supposed to start today. i guess davout is having some tech trouble ?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1150 @ 0.00089763 = 1.0323 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 128 @ 0.00241498 = 0.3091 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 200 @ 0.00241609 = 0.4832 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 2 @ 0.251 = 0.502 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15400 @ 0.00089763 = 13.8235 BTC [+]
benkay: asciilifeform: i dreamt about a dataflow soup (using biocomputing elements) last night and then read your Alert Reader post this morning.
benkay: first i'd ever encountered the notion of dataflow stuff
benkay: i'm a near total neophyte to the execution of code and the things upon which they execute, so your grumpy old man attitude is fascinating to keep in mind while coming up to speed on the rest of the stack.
benkay: your prose does have the vitriol of not-totally-bleached youth ;)
kakobreklaa: fun fact, clark moody refused to advertise my service cause it was suspeicious of it being scammy. he does have a mcxnow banner on site, still.
mike_c: tell him your code is C++, and therefore can't be a scam.
jcpham: mircea_popescu facedesk
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6000 @ 0.0008976 = 5.3856 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 13 @ 0.07062697 = 0.9182 BTC [-] {8}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2836 @ 0.000896 = 2.5411 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: seems the usual overreaction. no such thing happened as far as anyone knows
Duffer1: couple of reddit rumor threads so far, that's all i've been able to find
FabianB_: they love loosing money by panicking it seems
FabianB_: the only third party 'payment provider' they mention in the article is Tenpay
FabianB_: didn't know any of them had anything directly to do with bitcoin
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 22213 @ 0.00089553 = 19.8924 BTC [-] {4}
ThickAsThieves: they pulled similar shit with tencent rumors in the past
azoo: what about the just recent news about china banning withdrawals btc to fiat?
gribble: Error: I am not seeing this user on IRC. If you want information about a registered gpg user, try the 'gpg info' command instead.
Duffer1: ya i was lookin in wrong chan >.<
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5550 @ 0.0008976 = 4.9817 BTC [+]
ozbot: BitBet - Bitcoin value will drop back to $450 or below before Christmas
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6250 @ 0.0008976 = 5.61 BTC [+] {2}
mpexbot: jurov: An error has occurred and has been logged. Please contact this bot's administrator for more information.
jurov: ;;ticker --average
gribble: (ticker [--bid|--ask|--last|--high|--low|--avg|--vol] [--currency XXX] [--market <market>|all]) -- Return pretty-printed ticker. Default market is Mtgox. If one of the result options is given, returns only that numeric result (useful for nesting in calculations). If '--currency XXX' option is given, returns ticker for that three-letter currency code. It is up to you to make sure the code is (1 more message)
sois: TAT, Did Friedcat respond on what the issue is with the direct transfer shares from last week?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 3000 @ 0.000094 = 0.282 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 13400 @ 0.00089763 = 12.0282 BTC [+]
the20year2: jurov: the prevailing theory is that the heart shape is specifically that
sois: Okay, guess nothing we can do but wait till next dividend or his response
sois: i sent him a proposal that would automate the process, i'm guessing he is just using excel and manually doing it which must be a hassle
jurov: i'll add it on coinbr, but it needs scary warning you need b-c account to settle it
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: X.EUR Bids: ['2000 @ 0.0016129', '100 @ 0.00153846', '350 @ 0.00147']
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: Asks: ['2000 @ 0.00227272']
ozbot: Bitcoin is so 2013: Dogecoin is new crypto currency on the block | The Verge
mircea_popescu: jurov well you don't HAVE to settle, you can just sell it back later
Duffer1: more than they'll ever actually mine
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: O.USD.C110T Bids: ['1000 @ 1e-08', '1000 @ 1e-08']
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: Asks: ['1000 @ 0.00627926', '1000 @ 0.00627947', '5 @ 0.025']
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6559 @ 0.00089573 = 5.8751 BTC [-]
gribble: 1 BTC = 749.9 USD = 544.80235 eur
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: O.USD.C065T Bids: ['1000 @ 0.01591501', '1000 @ 0.01591501']
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: Asks: ['1000 @ 0.02752279', '1000 @ 0.02752286']
mircea_popescu: ;;calc 0.01591501 / 0.02752279 - 0.0016129 / 0.00227272
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4370 @ 0.00089622 = 3.9165 BTC [+] {2}
ozbot: PETA-MINE | CryptX
Duffer1: wow they really have raised 3400 btc
Duffer1: i can't imagine that will ever rio
the20year2: And it's a sweet deal for the mining company......the cost to provide those GH goes down every day
the20year2: I always laugh at how these companies are set up, i've gone overboard with mine, and no one cares
Duffer1: those assholes have gone overboard with that one
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 19800 @ 0.00090107 = 17.8412 BTC [+] {2}
Duffer1: they retain 35% of divs because..
the20year2: If you were the issuer , why not? Investors typically don't read the T &C , and if they do, few understand it
mircea_popescu: the20year2 and then you list the crap and get called a scam and don't understand why.
the20year2: I retain 35% of my divs too, but then I ponied up $30k+ into the fund :D
the20year2: Who cares if they get called a scam? They've already pocketed 2.8m in investments
the20year2: makes me wish i'd of asked for 5k bitcoins instead of the 700
Duffer1: what's your project the20?
the20year2: buying income producing real estate with bitcoins
mircea_popescu: stealing 2.8mn from idiots does not make the stolen funds investments.
the20year2: is it theft if they willingly hand it over?
Duffer1: fleecing the ignorant is little better than theft imo
Vexual: courts oft call it theft
Duffer1: it's not intended to benefit the investor so i'd call that a scam, maybe not "theft"
ThickAsThieves: last i checked, taking candy from babies wasn't good for the rep
the20year2: *Hopefully* the end result will be smarter investors
Duffer1: smarter, broke, investors hehe
gribble: The expected generation output, at 240000000.0 Mhps, given difficulty of 908350862.437, is 132.875487804 BTC per day and 5.5364786585 BTC per hour.
mircea_popescu: 240 th they say they're deploying, selling the lot for 50k btc.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11330 @ 0.00089857 = 10.1808 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: will hit even in 300 days of constant difficulty. also known as never.
the20year2: I wonder what kind of facility they're in
the20year2: My brother's looking at local warehouses/factories to deploy in, and the cost for setup and time involved is immense
the20year2: It's not like you can just find a datacenter and say "hey let me put my stuff in there"
Duffer1: a bunch of spam mail to my inbox but that's about it
Duffer1: no i'm not sure if they've actually shipped though
mircea_popescu: so basically this is a 25% actual rigs (from cointerra) and 75% vaporware.
ozbot: Official Avalon mining rig clones thread from bitmine.ch (NOW SHIPPING)
mircea_popescu: ok so basically they mostly delivered an avalon clone on a 9 month schedule, and announced a 28nm process on a 3 month schedule late sept.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3800 @ 0.00089815 = 3.413 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: "Even with weights, allowing a diff bet to be open to bets till so close to the resolution date, enormously reduces the incentive to bet until it is an obvious call and thus limits the size of the bets to a few eager early beters plus roughly double the late skimmers. No money in between an thus smaller overall rollers."
mircea_popescu: so then what dio you do, have all these bets you can't bet on ?
jurov: no, all the bets i can bet, but have weight like 50k or 30k
kakobrekla: [21:49:25] <ThickAsThieves> more curvy weight loss
jurov: yes, updating the curve could help
kakobrekla: you need more fat for more cuvers you know
mike_c: not sure that's any different than just closing early
mircea_popescu: not only what mike_c said, but also... then how do you specify the curve.
ThickAsThieves: of course then you run into the other issue of letting people make losing winning bers
ozbot: BitBet - Bitcoin difficulty at or above 2B before Feb 2014
mircea_popescu: what has materially changed in that bet since a month ago ?
jurov: hm, there should exist some curve how the prediction accuracy increases over time for natural phenomena
jurov: and weight would be inverse of it
jurov: and i strongly dount that curve is linear
mike_c: i'm warming up to the 'spend weight' idea
jurov: can't black-scholes be applied?
mike_c: it puts something of a cap on the bets, but whatever.
mike_c: like, you bet 50btc, the weight drops 50k
Vexual: science? is 100% science
mircea_popescu: jurov a nonlinear curve would, of course, have to somehow be communicated to the bettors, which may take 16 months of scam accusations in the btctalk.
ThickAsThieves: then each bet get 10% of that weight, but new bet's weight is offset
mircea_popescu: i can follow mike_c proposal but not yours, and moreover they seem quite distinct
mike_c: if you "buy" weight, it encourages you to 1) wait for more info, but 2) get in before someone else gets all the good weight
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves basically he proposes to not use a time function, but a bet function
mike_c: only marginally. but if you auction off weight, it changes the dynamic a lot
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5255 @ 0.00089815 = 4.7198 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: mike_c how is your idea different from just splitting the pool according to a polynomial (bet sum) ?
mike_c: thinking it through. i believe it is different because the guy who bets the first 10btc gets more than the guy who bets the last 10btc
mike_c: yeah, i'll think it through.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16600 @ 0.00090127 = 14.9611 BTC [+]
Vexual: you're only talking about difficulty bets?
mircea_popescu: Vexual it's where people seem to think they do a lot better at predicting outcomes as time goes by
ThickAsThieves: if it's not on the agenda for the gov by a certain date
mircea_popescu: i mean to be clear, im not proposing linear timeweight is the absolutely correct solution. it's obviously wrong, life isn't linear.
mircea_popescu: however, it may be the best approximation, depending how the problem is actually defined
ThickAsThieves: what if it's a fixed amount of weight that can be given, then the 'price' of weight is determined by the amount of coins bet prior.
Vexual: a curve from the difficulty estimate?
Vexual: perhaps the weather curve is plotted from data
Vexual: add some function to the diff estimate to make a sexy curve
jurov: can't find any supporting maths, looks like fully empirical
ThickAsThieves: i mean that in the starting from linear sense, not saying an extreme taper would be better
mircea_popescu: "any woman would be better than the girl next door. except, you know, a really annoying pornstar. or a quadriplegic. or a butch lesbian."
Vexual: u in it for the money or in it for the love?
mircea_popescu: mike_c one major problem of the not-time approach is, what if right before your 10btc bet makes it, someone puts in a 1k btc bet.
mircea_popescu: you basically now live in a cloudy soup of "i can't fucking know wjhat i'm betting on"
jurov: 1+cos(x) in the 0,pi interval? but yes, needs some modelling what would be the effect
jurov: just throw weierstrass function in
mike_c: mircea_popescu: yeah, i was thinking about that. but its not like its not a cloudy soup right now.
ozbot: Blancmange curve - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
mike_c: which is still only a piece of it. because if someone drops that 1k bet down on my side my odds still tank
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6600 @ 0.00090128 = 5.9484 BTC [+] {2}
mike_c: yes. not unsolvable though.
ThickAsThieves: what if you just offer 4 curve pictures when making bet, maybe in a Edit Curve button, one tapers early, one late, one linear, one like Franks Weather
ThickAsThieves: then you can overlay the curve chosen on the graph pic for each bet
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.257 BTC [+]
mike_c: steep curves late are the same as early closing imo
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves this discussion mostly started because users can't be arsed to use the fine tuning implem,ents already available
mircea_popescu: not like i won't let you make a bet that expires early or that ends with w/e weight etc
Vexual: you'll end up with a flat line
jurov: nope, i dont give root :)
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 100 @ 0.00243999 = 0.244 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 1 @ 0.257 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: besides, btc makes us about 5000x as powerful as fiat ever was
mircea_popescu: im kinda looking forward to the day when the old world starts actually paying lawyers to troll irc.
mircea_popescu: i don't think there's possible substitution for reputation generally.
mircea_popescu: this was "news" in 200 bc too. i dunno why it's so counterintuitive
Vexual: can we have drones with cameras reading keystrokes in the arena?
Vexual: you propose to make it more sporting by making it less sporting
ozbot: ASRock > H81 Pro BTC
Vexual: i still prefer the physical areana with drones, paid for by discorvey channel
Vexual: then sell your 0 days to market with the advertising
Vexual: no thats the beauty of it, by removing that special part of the whole game, you reintroduce it again
BingoBoingo: kakobrekla: I take that to mean they'll randomly power up the computer when you aren't using to to see if you found any bitcoins yet.
mike_c: "A Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation"
Vexual: thats what i mean ascii, the area is fake
mircea_popescu: mike_c did the academia folks invent something again ?
mike_c: it's got some good proposals for how to do it. i'm working on the tl;dr.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7850 @ 0.00090279 = 7.0869 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9450 @ 0.00090295 = 8.5329 BTC [+] {2}
mike_c: how could i possibly open a pdf from someone i know could hack the shit out of me if he wanted to?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9414 @ 0.00090012 = 8.4737 BTC [-] {2}
ll: or use pdf2jpg.com or similar
pankkake: multipage jpeg is called tar :)
BingoBoingo: Whatever is wrong with TeX for passing documents?
pankkake: unless you do black and white with high contrast filter
mike_c: ok.. i think i understand enough to design bitbet v2.
mike_c: i'll ask havelock. probably tomorrow.
mike_c: basically you buy shares in the outcome (this is not tradesports). share price is based on the current proportion of bets. so buying one share costs 0.1, but buying two shares cost 0.22, etc.
mike_c: price of shares will be driven to whatever probability is currently expected.
mike_c: so early bettors get better prices
mike_c: and when an event is basically decided, share prices go through the roof on that side
mike_c: can't be done. it's like an order book
mike_c: but the order book is filled with the algorithmically determined prices
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10000 @ 0.00090097 = 9.0097 BTC [+]
mike_c: so everyone knows its fair
mike_c: bettor would basically put in a limit order
Vexual: then it starts sounding like something else
mike_c: but not, because it's not just an open market
mike_c: and there is no market-maker
mike_c: except, there is always buy-liquidity from the opposing side
mike_c: it does, however, allow you to sell your shares if you want
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 754 @ 0.00241562 = 1.8214 BTC [-] {4}
mike_c: if there is sufficient interest from people i can work up a simulation.
mike_c: the nice thing about is that you don't need a time weight. early bettors get better odds, and it will naturally get squeezed off when the market knows the event is decided.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6900 @ 0.00090317 = 6.2319 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 5 @ 0.09304399 = 0.4652 BTC [+] {5}
mircea_popescu: so let's run through this. bet is gribble's coin toss comes out heads.
mike_c: well, i think parimutuel wagering on mathematical things is silly :)
mike_c: let's say the democrats when the next US pres election
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 5 @ 0.09975999 = 0.4988 BTC [+] {4}
mike_c: BB seeds with 0.6, 0.4
mike_c: now there will be a share price for each one (there are a variety of pricing functions) to buy a share in each outcome
mike_c: but that share price is an integral
mircea_popescu: i got 10 btc on the dems right here. i send it to your site. what happens ?
mike_c: you get x shares of 'dems winning'
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CBTC] 11113 @ 0.00009487 = 1.0543 BTC [+] {2}
mike_c: you will be able to see when you place your bet. it will say "1 share: 0.1 btc, 1 more share: 0.2 btc, 1 more share: 0.5 btc"
Duffer1: it sounds like you're trying to dumb it down for noobs by overcomplicating it
mircea_popescu: so if i spend 10 btc i get a number of shares you can't specify. wjhat happens next ?
mike_c: it's basically an algorithmically generated order book for shares in 'dems win'
mike_c: i can specify, just can't do the integral off the top of my head.
Vexual: u can have an algo gen weighting curve tho, dont even need to update faq
mike_c: in my mind it works. i may not be explaining correctly
mircea_popescu: just guess the value of the integral, it won't kill you .not like it's a binding contract or anything
mike_c: if i guess the bridge will fall down when you drive over it.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 100 @ 0.00239999 = 0.24 BTC [-]
ozbot: Fudda'd by muddafudda
mike_c: wag: you would get about as many shares as 0.7 has (if 0.7 was on dems)
mike_c: so coming in and dropping 10btc on a bet with only 0.3 on the other side, not so great.
mircea_popescu: bbv1 is neutral on thsi score. if someone buys the other side later it lifts you up
mike_c: as would this. you are buying shares in dems. later, money comes in on reps, your intrinsic share value goes up
mircea_popescu: aite, so let's try it. since you're somehow decided it must be 0.1s for some reason, i put 0.5 on dems. what's that do ?
mike_c: you get half as many as the 0.7 has
mircea_popescu: aite. so dems side is now 3 (opresumably) + 3.5 + .95 shares
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [CFIG] 13 @ 0.07012307 = 0.9116 BTC [-] {5}
mike_c: er, heres my math: shares: (7 + 3.5 + 1) = 11.5 shares (0.7 + 0.5 + 0.7) = 1.9 btc on dems
mircea_popescu: so now obama comes and dumps 10 btc on reps. cause he's hedging.
mike_c: with BB having seeded 3 shares
mike_c: company decision. it can be done so that all the money is split, or only the losers money.
mike_c: er, so you said the losers
mike_c: 0.7 early -> 6.26 0.5 mid -> 3.13 0.7 late -> 0.9
mircea_popescu: even if these could be within five minutes of each other ?
mike_c: yes. that's the beauty.
mircea_popescu: so any new bet is basically a landrush to buy the early shares ?
mircea_popescu: basically to extract value out of this scheme all you need to know is your avg volume
mike_c: not exactly. the bet should always, throughout its lifetime, float around its current probability
mike_c: and if you see an imbalance, you are incented to act quickly
mircea_popescu: but if i know that a certain bet will reach say 200 btc total wagered
mike_c: whereas right now an imbalance means nothing
mircea_popescu: then as long as the odds are 10:1 or less i am safe buying 10 btc each side, cheap shares
mike_c: first off, that is currently the situation with BB. betting early on a high volume bet is a guaranteed win.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14550 @ 0.00090244 = 13.1305 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HMF] 40 @ 0.0248 = 0.992 BTC [-]
mike_c: but shares do not devalue with time in this scheme.
mike_c: that is, say the situation went differently.
mike_c: 0.7 on dems, then 10 on reps
mike_c: now i can buy profitable dem shares again
mike_c: and am incented to do so quickly, before someone else does
mike_c: so the right time to bet is when i feel the odds are wrong, which isn't really the case right now
mircea_popescu: suppose i send 1 btc, ion the reps, and discover i didn't get 8 shares but .7 because someone put 10btc in 10 minutes before me.
mircea_popescu: i now go to the forum and open a scam thread, saying you put the 10 btc
mike_c: you basically put in a limit order. "buy up to 10btc of shares at up to 0.2 each"
mike_c: nobody unhappy, because if that whale gets in before you, you just don't get filled
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 21331 @ 0.00090148 = 19.2295 BTC [-] {2}
mike_c: and now you bet the other side.
mike_c: it's right. i feel it. i'll build a simulation.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1000 @ 0.00089511 = 0.8951 BTC [-]
mike_c: unless something seems way off to you. like the idea of putting in a limit order.
mike_c: you have to refund I guess. I'm on bitbet, i say "i want 10btc of dems at up to 0.2 per share". You generate an address and in your DB mark it as a limit order at 0.2. if you can only fill 5btc of it you have to send the other 5 back..
mircea_popescu: say both me and kako send in block 275000. who goes in first ?
mike_c: yes.. well, JD creamed satoshi-dice because having an account has advantages :)
mike_c: lemme think on sorting.
mike_c: same block, sort by bet time?
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: when you retrieve depth stat and matches to json stat, no? So is it possibly to just take current top ask/bid depth value and translate it into market buy or market sell?
mike_c: i meant bet time on BitBet, but you reuse addresses, so you won't always have that.
mircea_popescu: (depending who mines the block the same exact tx can end up with diff timestamps)
mircea_popescu: like say pool x could mine me before kako, and pool y could mine kako before me
mike_c: ah, block time isn't dependable?
mircea_popescu: the blockchain exists in the first place because time isnt reliable.
mike_c: this may not be possible without accounts.. which i guess makes it no good for BB.
mike_c: i mean like having balances on BB
mike_c: then its the same as mpex
mike_c: except the order of magnitude is lower
gribble: MtGox BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 740.0, Best ask: 743.28947, Bid-ask spread: 3.28947, Last trade: 740.0, 24 hour volume: 40151.84292354, 24 hour low: 714.11, 24 hour high: 928.0, 24 hour vwap: 800.48436
mike_c: so it doesn't need to be mpex
mircea_popescu: honestly i dun see myself using it, sounds like a sort of bettrade w/e that thing was called, except with a perhaps very broken auto-mm tacked on
mike_c: the mm is just a help to see what you're getting.
mike_c: similar to the calculator on BB right now
mircea_popescu: if you're gonna do that may as well just make it the thing, let people trade shares.
mircea_popescu: or for that matter invest in zh's darling, i forget what it was called.
Bunnyh: how about sorting bets in the same block by creation time of betting addresses?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8026 @ 0.00089501 = 7.1834 BTC [-] {2}
mike_c: if it can be done without accts, all the better. just sorting incoming bets is the problem.
mike_c: and the fact that you would need to potentially return money.
thestringpuller: mircea_popescu: so for the "average" mpex user they would need to call stat evert "blah" hours and keep a log of all of them to record every trade/transaction they've made on mpex no?
mircea_popescu: and the fact that you will need a very solid api or nobody will mm it.
mircea_popescu: bbet's interface is very simple by design, but your thing would be sort-of like the rpc call of all time
mircea_popescu: yes, if they want to store data they;ll need a filesystem or some other similar implement
thestringpuller: of course, but the user has to record, mpex doesn't have SoR
jurov: thas's why pympex logs by default
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [PETA] 24 @ 0.045 = 1.08 BTC [-]
thestringpuller: yea, but I was seeing how the user could see more of their trades in a gui
thestringpuller: and stat only shows recent, was seeing if the user would be the SoR
mike_c: if this were a simple problem we wouldn't be talking about it. simple designs are great, but limiting.
mike_c: yeah, i just feel like we're talking about tcp KEEP_ALIVE and deciding it's too complicated :) even tcp is complicated.
mike_c: i'll think on it some more. and can maybe explain more clearly.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 3 @ 0.2599 = 0.7797 BTC [+] {2}
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 12700 @ 0.0008963 = 11.383 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM100] 895 @ 0.00240374 = 2.1513 BTC [+] {3}
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [AM1] 9 @ 0.25414444 = 2.2873 BTC [-] {4}