mircea_popescu: "here's this thing i have no idea about. let me tell you how it goes"
mircea_popescu: you know where all this gets started ? i bet you it's the insane habit of teaching kids to "guess" words based on context
error4733: after 100$ i guess we start to talk in cents ? Cbtc
Bowjob: i happened to do well in english classes back in the day
Bowjob: well shit happens when you go out of school lol
mod6: mircea_popescu: yeah i dunno what that guy is on
Bowjob: "Well, congress uses imaginary money, so why not?"
Bowjob: ""digital currency"? What's backing it? Ok, boom, I just made-up 6,000 bitcoins... keep the change!"
mpexbot: jurov because a. its much easier to parse and b. because the bot
mod6: (15:02) < mircea_popescu> "o no, too busy yakking" << yeah like wt
jurov: mpexbot is repeating itself
jurov: i remember he generated exactly the same text once
smickles: jurov: i think it's stopped adding new data for some reason
Bowjob: "digital currency"? What's backing it? Ok, boom, I just made-up 6,000 bitcoins... keep the change!
smickles: it's not a priority for me to figure it out
mod6: that pete earle guy has it figured ou though
jurov: i guess [\\\] borkt it... cause of the backlashes
smickles: jurov: heh, that would be funny actually
jurov: little imsa tables we call him
Bowjob: I dreamt that I got an asic, and I found a block
smickles: mpoebot is widening margins by leaps and bounds
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 70.30000, Best ask: 70.40000, Bid-ask spread: 0.10000, Last trade: 70.30000, 24 hour volume: 75252.45726239, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74999, 24 hour vwap: 70.77809
benkay: deadweasel u still at work?
benkay: come hang out at bailey's, cuz
deadweasel: no, the woman is on the phone with her mother.
Bowjob: yeah, bears got trampled upon once again
deadweasel: how can you talkto your mother for that long?~?!
benkay: is there a channel for humans writing bitcoin software?
benkay: i don't mean bitcoin-dev
benkay: the pedants in this area
Bowjob: i believe proudhon saved us from the crash.. he called BTC dropping
Bowjob: guys.. does anyone recall bfl josh saying he will commit seppuku if bfl asics dont get delivered by april?
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.00443 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 10 @ 0.00444 = 0.0444 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BITVPS] 100 @ 0.006 = 0.6 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8098 = 1.6196 BTC [-]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 69.50001, Best ask: 69.76622, Bid-ask spread: 0.26621, Last trade: 69.50000, 24 hour volume: 76705.51077553, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74999, 24 hour vwap: 70.74349
error4733: haha " You wouldn't have to commit Seppeku. You'd have an angry mob with pitchforks and flaming torches at the door....."
Bowjob: so basically we need to have him take a bath,
Bowjob: and we feed him his favourite food
Bowjob: then after that he performs hara kiri
Bowjob: we need a skilled swordsman as his second though...
error4733: i thinks a rafle for this joob is good idea
Bowjob: well, they need to perform it correctly. basically you want to cut his head, but with a little bit of flash left so that his head wont roll
Bowjob: since apparently heads rolling is unsightly in front of spectators and not graceful
Bowjob: he has to stab himself from left, dragging the knife to his right,.. and pulling up his abdomen. after which, the pain would be so unbearable, that he would naturally elongate his neck for the swordsman
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 3 @ 0.545088 = 1.6353 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 3 @ 0.545099 = 1.6353 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 2 @ 0.5451 = 1.0902 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 3 @ 0.8 = 2.4 BTC [-]
benkay: wow a 700 dollar reward?
ThickAsThieves: lol at your wife checking your history and seeing "rape picz"
benkay: lol at anyone who has women in their life who are privileged to review history
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 68.71999, Best ask: 68.72000, Bid-ask spread: 0.00001, Last trade: 68.72000, 24 hour volume: 77413.54084361, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74999, 24 hour vwap: 70.70434
assbot: [BTCTC] [CRYPTO-TRADE] 1 @ 0.199999 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.C310T] 2 @ 0.56246444 = 1.1249 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 3 @ 0.34 = 1.02 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 35 @ 0.00448 = 0.1568 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.00449 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 5 @ 0.004587 = 0.0229 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.004636 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6700 @ 0.00068477 = 4.588 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7662 @ 0.0006825 = 5.2293 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 788 @ 0.00068249 = 0.5378 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [CRYPTO-TRADE] 5 @ 0.2 = 1 BTC [+]
gribble: Current Blocks: 227471 | Current Difficulty: 4847647.152065606 | Next Difficulty At Block: 227807 | Next Difficulty In: 336 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 1 day, 10 hours, 54 minutes, and 32 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 6569364.63317 | Estimated Percent Change: 35.51656
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8097 BTC [+]
ThickAsThieves: so do you guys think the trend of btc rising with mining diff will hold as we spike higher on diff?
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8097 = 1.6194 BTC [+]
smickles: if anything price lags behind diff as the miners try to sell at profitable rates, but for a while, i think most miners have not been cashing out. so it's not a good metric
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8097 = 1.6194 BTC [+]
ThickAsThieves: that sorta means it goes up either way, no? of course that's been the best guess for a while now...
assbot: [BTCTC] [COGNITIVE] 7 @ 0.16 = 1.12 BTC [+]
smickles: well, everytime since ~jul 2011, when it gets this profitable to mine, it begins to be a lot less profitable to mine. caused by eithr diff increase or price drop. since we expect the diff to increase, the price may stabilize
smickles: maybe it works like this because large mine-ops want to exptect and force a given profit leve once they startup
smickles: maybe 65-75 will be the range for a while
MJR__: what's new mircea_popescu
mpexbot: mod6: 1 day: average: 0.00069382 high: 0.00072101 low: 0.00068249 volume: 79772 btc: 55.34760872 7 day: average: 0.00071976 high: 0.00077505 low: 0.00066743 volume: 3194689 btc: 2299.41829871 30 day: average: 0.00071193 high: 0.00078628 low: 0.00061614 volume: 35374137 btc: 25183.935095
mircea_popescu: "1. The entity may have discovered a method for increasing mining ROI, and essentially, is earning its 50 bitcoins per block"
benkay: what's the deal with the empty txns tho
ThickAsThieves: couldnt they just further develop the stabdard bitcoin client to mine again, except take it further than cgminer, make it even easier to use and autodetect GPU/CPU power etc
benkay: not entirely a bad idea
mod6: that guy is smoking crack
mod6: because its not all bots, i know for sure, because im not a bot - at least I don't think i am...
mircea_popescu: mod6 he's talking about the 15% miner that used to make empty blocks
ThickAsThieves: It essentially was warning that one of my computers may have been compromised and is exhibiting bot activity
mod6: oh we're talkin bout different things -- im talking about that twitter dillhole
ThickAsThieves: also the idea of giving every bitcoiner mining power, ties in well with the idea of letting people mine to expedite their own transactions
benkay_: and zero battery instantly
smickles: ThickAsThieves: it would would probably have a very small impact
smickles: it would waste people's electricity and longevity of their computers
smickles: they would, and it would still be a waste ;)
ThickAsThieves: i do think this kind of thinking can help mitigate the problem
ThickAsThieves: but maybe every cell phone gets a couple 5th gen asic chips
MJR__: I had a great talk last night with Yifu
MJR__: there will be a next wave of more optimized
MJR__: someone will do it
mircea_popescu: "Later update : The article originally used the word “photochop”. This is wrong, because the more photoshop is consistently used the closer Adobe gets to losing that trademark through it becoming generic. Please help the effort of stripping Adobe of its assets by always referring to altered images as “photoshops” rather than anything else. Thanks."
benkay: wow and how the fuck am i supposed to know from the bitfunder website what this so-called "asset" actually is?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 18728 @ 0.0007121 = 13.3362 BTC [+]
Ukto: benkay: details tab
Ukto: apparently he took the sell down to fix it
benkay: using Bitcoins to talk about bitcoins
benkay: "we will also be buying shares of asic miner as they become reasonably priced"
benkay: i herd u liked gambling
Ukto: heh, its their choice
Ukto: most things in bitcoin world are gambling
Ukto: of some form or another
benkay: bitcoins have inherent value tho bro
Ukto: yeah, sell it one day
Ukto: the next day its double value
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 5 @ 0.4940001 = 2.47 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 20 @ 0.49400001 = 9.88 BTC [-]
benkay: you can't gamble with a thing's inherent value
benkay: that was going to take too much energy.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 69.75500, Best ask: 69.99999, Bid-ask spread: 0.24499, Last trade: 69.99999, 24 hour volume: 73192.71947822, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74999, 24 hour vwap: 70.64505
gribble: A market order to sell 15000 bitcoins right now would net 974132.1233 USD and would take the last price down to 62.0000 USD, resulting in an average price of 64.9421 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 0.0018 seconds
gribble: There are currently 0 bitcoins demanded at or over 75.0 USD, worth 0.0 USD in total. | Data vintage: 28.0741 seconds
gribble: There are currently 18428.25 bitcoins offered at or under 75.0 USD, worth 1356900.05522 USD in total. | Data vintage: 35.7716 seconds
benkay: jurov, you expect AMC to keel over?
jurov: just waiting for some reaction
jurov: but they indeed have some right ingredients
assbot: [BTCTC] [PAJKA.BOND] 20 @ 0.09 = 1.8 BTC [-]
benkay: right ingredients for what?
benkay: what ingredients tripped your filters?
jurov: "The team has been involved with the Bitcoin project since 2009"
jurov: but no url, website, project, anything
jurov: benkay such things really needs explanation?
mircea_popescu: two years later it's "we've been lurking since two years ago"
benkay: i'm always interested in hearing about others' filters
benkay: but the cool thing about mental immune systems is that they peer-bootstrap
jurov: AMC stands above all others as the most trusted ASIC Bitcoin Mining Cooperative and ASIC Developer.
jurov: all scammers are full of trust
jurov: i think the word "trust" isn't even mentioned on coinbr website for example, quite the opposite
benkay: not calling your shop bullshit, jurov. describing actions of actors in community.
jurov: no, i was not implying that
mircea_popescu: he has a point tho. narcissism, niceness and all the rest of the social proof stuff correlates with social engineers.
benkay: the close on that quote is "gangsters walk"
smickles: anytime anyone says 'thank you' they are just trying to get you to do more shit for them in the future :P
benkay: why do you think I thank everyone for the things they do for me?
mircea_popescu: today waitress gave me check, made change, i refused it and instead of thank you
benkay: it's just manners, man
benkay: you probably tipped something absurd
smickles: oh, it's manners? so you are trying to put yourself in a seperate class :<
mircea_popescu: (also i've been there miltiple times but this iirc was the first time when i was alone)
benkay: there are already separate classes, smickles
benkay: some are born into them,
smickles: above me! ha! i has no manners
benkay: it's all just signaling
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1013 @ 0.0007121 = 0.7214 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 25685 @ 0.00070622 = 18.1393 BTC [-]
smickles: in all srsness, manipulating people that way is almost always benificial and should be done
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11900 @ 0.00068941 = 8.204 BTC [-]
smickles: it might even be such a good thing that it's why our species has done well
mircea_popescu: incidentally, why do people say "let's do it again sometime" instead of "thank you" :D
smickles: mircea_popescu: they probably just mean the same thing
smickles: or they are just letting the matrix slip out a little
mircea_popescu: see, kako is manipulating me into having sex with his gf.
smickles: mircea_popescu: my wife declined your invitation to romania for sex dungeon activities
mircea_popescu: wait. i forgot all about this. when was she scheduled to appear ?
smickles: well, considering it was a joke, i don't think we made solid arrangements
mircea_popescu: Mar 22 19:44:50 <benkay> 99% of the time you're serious
mircea_popescu: now im gonna have to call my berber connection, kidnam moar circassian chix
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-BOND] 3 @ 0.009899 = 0.0297 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01989 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.0199 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10794 @ 0.00068613 = 7.4061 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 6 @ 0.8096 = 4.8576 BTC [-]
jurov: AMC CEO/CTO, Kenneth(Ken) E. Slaughter - that's true name?
assbot: [BTCTC] [COGNITIVE] 1 @ 0.15 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 10 @ 0.00404 = 0.0404 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 1 @ 0.00403 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 20 @ 0.00402 = 0.0804 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-BOND] 1 @ 0.009899 BTC [+]
benkay: "no salaries will be paid as an expense"
mircea_popescu: don't trust anyone from Argentina or Brazil; or Russia or Ukraine, etc.
mircea_popescu: "a good deal is rarely time sensitive." that's plain untrue.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 7 @ 0.8096 = 5.6672 BTC [-]
benkay: homie has 3 linkedin connections
benkay: a self-described "experienced software executive"
benkay: he may actually have some cloud experience
mircea_popescu: you know they have "Executive toilets" in the states now ?
benkay: "I have people for that"
benkay: they bring a new level of professionalism to executing your movements
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8096 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: "For this type of service (and most others) #bitcoin-otc is old and completely irrelevant."
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.5499 BTC [+]
benkay: bitcoin-otc is currently involved in a biblical discussion
tiberiusiv: mircea: romania needs to be added to that list
benkay: given the state of the crap that is otc
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5400 @ 0.00068249 = 3.6854 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.528999 = 1.058 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 69.12739, Best ask: 69.48999, Bid-ask spread: 0.36260, Last trade: 69.12740, 24 hour volume: 71874.62529399, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74999, 24 hour vwap: 70.57386
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 2 @ 0.34 = 0.68 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 5 @ 0.5289 = 2.6445 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 5 @ 0.5499 = 2.7495 BTC [+]
jurov: ThickAsThieves i'm here.. thanks to psu failure
jurov: hopefully nobody noticed
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14850 @ 0.00068249 = 10.135 BTC [-]
jurov: wish you good luck but i think it doesn't work that way xD
jurov: better to lurk till someone comes and asks
jurov: here, on -otc, on reddit, and else
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.528999 = 1.058 BTC [+]
jurov: is he around ? or i can look up deprived's code for you?
jurov: his refcode is: 86wnxLBgte
jurov: hope he won't be angry that referral credits will mess with his neat accounting :)
benkay: all the money in the world
benkay: and mircea_popescu spends his time browsing prole food review sites
benkay: a new kind of slumming.
benkay: apologies for blacktape noise, all
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.5289 BTC [-]
benkay: but in the grand tradition of bitcoin-assets
benkay: today we test in production
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8883 @ 0.00068326 = 6.0694 BTC [+]
jurov: yea. and replugging PSU's on live servers.
jurov: well, all seems fine now, any other coinbr-related requests?
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8095 BTC [-]
jurov: so, goodnight then
Namworld: About the AMC thing, I like the name on the invoice for their ASIC miners.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11421 @ 0.00068249 = 7.7947 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7414 @ 0.000675 = 5.0045 BTC [-]
Namworld: The name is promising for investors.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8095 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01401 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.MPOE-PT] 3 @ 0.000678 = 0.002 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 6 @ 0.78211 = 4.6927 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2900 @ 0.00068326 = 1.9815 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BITVPS] 100 @ 0.005 = 0.5 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BITVPS] 1 @ 0.0048 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BITVPS] 100 @ 0.004 = 0.4 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BITVPS] 100 @ 0.003 = 0.3 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 3 @ 0.5499 = 1.6497 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 68.54301, Best ask: 68.99999, Bid-ask spread: 0.45698, Last trade: 68.99999, 24 hour volume: 68403.53313381, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.74998, 24 hour vwap: 70.35406
assbot: [MPEX:^OIX] 1D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 51.16975919 / 66.68063398 / 67.41250707 (39315 shares, 9,083.51 BTC), 30D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC)
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4978 @ 0.00068102 = 3.3901 BTC [-]
Namworld: next month 1000, two month from then, 1 000 000
Namworld: exponential growth and whatnot
Namworld: I wonder where it would actually be if we calculated the exponential curve's formula and determined the expected price in 2 months based on that...
Namworld: then on month 3, 0.01 per BTC, the month after 666 per BTC
Namworld: at which point humanity gets diagnosed with insanity and gets locked away on a rock floating in space.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 15 @ 0.78211 = 11.7317 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 5 @ 0.78211 = 3.9106 BTC [-]
Namworld: (clarification notes: I'm getting tired of the price going wild)
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 18622 @ 0.00068102 = 12.682 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 778 @ 0.000675 = 0.5252 BTC [-]
cads: hey guys, I'd like to learn about the leading thinkers in the BTC assets realm, and learn about the current state of the art
cads: I have a couple professors as school which I am prepared to bug about how we may build options valuation on top of BTC options
cads: but I'm actually pretty ignorant about the topic and would love to talk to someone that could help me sketch out the expected phases if a research project intending to produce option valuation model
cads: I think it may be difficult to do this absent a risk free interest rate, but I'd love to hear someone's enlightened thoughts on that
Namworld: Could you give some more details about what you'd like to know exactly?
cads: mostly I'd like to hear ideas about how the design of BTC currency Options will likely proceed
cads: and to discover what my best next action should be
Namworld: Well there's already plenty of options for BTC
Namworld: I can't really see much more that what's already available.
cads: hrm, I should make it clear that I want to design valuation methods for BTC options
Namworld: hmm... valuation methods? In what sense?
cads: well, for example, the Black-Scholes formula tries to give a price for European-style options.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.529 = 2.116 BTC [+]
Namworld: hmm... perhaps you could ask mircea. MPEx's bot happens to put bids and asks on options traded at the exchange. I am unsure how it is done.
Namworld: Although it's probably proprietary.
Namworld: and not going to be disclosed.
cads: sounds cool, thanks Namworld
mircea_popescu: cads you can probably start by reading up on mpoe, yea.
mircea_popescu: there's been ~2mn notional traded this month, should count for something.
Namworld: He wants to know how to valuate options tho... not an easy thing to answer
Franktank: Has anyone heard about the new AMC IPO on BitFunder? Curious on other folks thoughts
mircea_popescu: tho what he stated was "the current state of the art". well... the current state of the art is 356`139 option contracts traded this month.
mircea_popescu: Franktank i've seen some not so impressed people comment but i've not looked into it myself.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00067912 = 3.3956 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16808 @ 0.000675 = 11.3454 BTC [-]
Franktank: Just saw it recently, they appear to be banking their initial revenue on incoming Avalon units (batches 2 and 3) and R&D on an ASIC chip
Franktank: Startups appear to be the rage these days
Namworld: I have a hard time believe R&D part.
mircea_popescu: Franktank really, they do ? i've not seen a good start-up in months.
mircea_popescu: or you mean, the rage as to what's a good something to pretend you're doing these days ?
cads: mircea, I am unfamiliar with mpoe. Main point of entry?
mircea_popescu: MPOE has been trading btc/usd options since august 2011, there's published monthly reports etc.
cads: hey mircea, what's BTC like in romania?
cads: if you think we don't have technogypsies you're wrong
gribble: Error: "mtgox" is not a valid command.
gribble: Error: "gox" is not a valid command.
cads: ;;calc 356139 * [mt-gox --last]
gribble: Error: "mt-gox" is not a valid command.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 68.10000, Best ask: 68.24000, Bid-ask spread: 0.14000, Last trade: 68.10000, 24 hour volume: 69191.85990614, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.70000, 24 hour vwap: 70.19614
tiberiusiv: mircea: how safe is supercar ownership in romania?
tiberiusiv: mircea: so what do the girls say about a multi millionaire using 15 year old CRT monitors and staying in littered rooms?
cads: mircea_popescu: thanks for linking me to the charter
jcpham: am i missing eskimobob right now?
tiberiusiv: franktank: i thought avalon was using batch #2 money to pay for batch #1
jcpham: will he show up if i say his name?
tiberiusiv: and hoping profits make up the shortfall
cads: mircea_popescu: are the american romanian girls just all the pretty girls from romania, or are the girls even prettier back home?
tiberiusiv: cads: most romanians immigrate to canada
mircea_popescu: tiberiusiv amusingly, asicminer is using batch 2 chips to make up for blown batch 1 and avalon is using batch 2 money to pay for batch 1. it's like... all the same company.
cads: tiberiusiv: this is why I always thought it strange to find myself in georgia!
cads: aka red neck capital of the world
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2618 @ 0.00067092 = 1.7565 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1582 @ 0.00068326 = 1.0809 BTC [+]
cads: mircea_popescu: oh dear jesus both please!
cads: mircea_popescu: they look like conjoined sisters
cads: both sprouting out of that gorgeous butt
mircea_popescu: i thought im the only one that still remembers that old codger
cads: famous photography. Titled "3 Graces"
cads: they're all undergrads
cads: mircea_popescu: you're correct
cads: the correct answer is "I"m sorry, none of them have PhDs"
cads: mircea_popescu: I only know a little lore about him - I'm not a student of MIT
mircea_popescu: ah. right, you said school earlier, what school is that ?
cads: mircea_popescu, I think I must have seen your name around the BTC sites and community before today.
cads: that or you've published some paper or something
cads: what's your academic background?
cads: hah, a nice yet tractable jump to BTC :)
cads: hey mircea, Namworld mentions that you run an automatic optinos trading bot. Would you mind attesting to the veracity of that fact?
cads: ah yes, optinos - the quantum unit of financial options.
cads: mircea_popescu: if you do not wish to mention any details about it that is perfectly fine
cads: not before right now
cads: hey mircea_popescu, I just noticed the romanian version of your charter
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 7 @ 0.5499 = 3.8493 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 6 @ 0.5499 = 3.2994 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 9 @ 0.55 = 4.95 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 5 @ 0.55 = 2.75 BTC [+]
Namworld: VTX doing incredibly well I believe
assbot: Yeah. No damn tobacco, that's for sure.
assbot: [HAVELOCK:VTX] 1D: 0.44980000 / 0.52045992 / 0.55000000 (308 shares, 160.30165433 BTC), 7D: 0.38280000 / 0.39820061 / 0.55000000 (10343 shares, 4118.58893151 BTC), 30D: 0.38280000 / 0.39820061 / 0.55000000 (10343 shares, 4118.58893151 BTC)
cads: mircea_popescu: as of this moment what I see when I look at mpex.co is a hellacious mass of legal jargon smattered with quantitative data readouts :)
mircea_popescu: anyway, the O.BTCUSD stuff, those are all option lines
cads: I'm glad I'm not hallucinating, then. :)
mircea_popescu: mpex stands as an insult to the intelligence of the average voter.
cads: mircea_popescu: oh thanks to dogs there is a faq.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 2 @ 0.564555 = 1.1291 BTC [+]
cads: who the fuck coded all this?
cads: I want to shake his hand and punch him at the same time
cads: no offense, if this is you
cads: I may even mean that as a compliment
mircea_popescu: a good section of tools etc were actually developed by community peeps
mircea_popescu: like pympex, coinbr, there's also a windows gui and a phone one in the works
cads: I can generally eventually converge on an understanding of technojargon, even without help
cads: but it usually requires a few in depth readings, and some secondary reference material
cads: right now I'm not reading anything technical with the intention of trying to understand it :)
mircea_popescu: well, you can go through the MPEx category on trilema, there's a lot of stuff there
cads: so mpex is a software framework for deploying exchanges
cads: mircea_popescu: do we still have to pay 30 BTC in fees for account registration?
cads: and the investors can justify this cost in expected revenue?
mircea_popescu: average investors are not expected to buy themselves a seat at the exchange
mircea_popescu: and most wouldn't know what to do with it if they had it.
mircea_popescu: but, for high volume or sophisticated peeps it's a nice perk.
cads: can I learn what investors at the exchange do?
Namworld: I already paid the cost of the seat plenty
mircea_popescu: but anyway, since option stuff was your main interest, read up on the oix
gribble: Error: "g" is not a valid command.
cads: and what must they do, from a decision making standpoint - average investors make decisions based on gut. Do these investors use quant as well?
mircea_popescu: they mustn't do anything. they do what they please,. buy, sell , whatever
cads: I mean only that it seems they must guarantee that their decisions are of high quality
cads: or else they risk wasting the sizeable initial fee
cads: and am wondering what additional decision making measures these investors generally adopt, above and beyond basic investment strategies
mircea_popescu: there was a 10k btc buy of S.DICE in one go at some point.
cads: do investors in mpex generally pay their own analysts, for example?
cads: since I'm most interested in options, and since these traditionally have theory, I'm now wondering if any of these guys have paid analysts to derive appropriatate new pricing models for these options
cads: mircea_popescu: what type of option is traded on the mpex?
cads: mircea_popescu: how much money is good enough to play?
cads: "if you have to ask...."
mircea_popescu: last calculation i recall something like 2k btc total trade volume justifies the fee
mircea_popescu: you know it occurs to me... when new person takes an hour just to gaze at the edges of this thing...
cads: mircea_popescu: so I could work with a 500 BTC base an recoup the entry cost over a handful of months?
cads: mircea_popescu: haha, what a very romanian sentiment :)
mircea_popescu: anyway, mpex charges .2% seller only. if you make .5 round trip then .3 difference will yiueld 30 btc over 10k traded.
mircea_popescu: but this is just a sidepoint. if you're looking to invest btc what are you going to do ?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 67.11000, Best ask: 67.29998, Bid-ask spread: 0.18998, Last trade: 67.29998, 24 hour volume: 67513.96570233, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.98189
cads: mircea_popescu: at this point I'd like only to understand how to imagine, visualize, and refine an mpex investment strategy
cads: mircea_popescu: do you play chess?
mircea_popescu: anyway, btc investment strategies are an intellectual contribution
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.571002 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: the thing is new, price data extends little in the past, there's a lot of weirdness in the market
mircea_popescu: so the more people thinking about it the better, a fertile field as it's called.
mircea_popescu: certainly the best phds of the future will b done on bitcoin/mpex/whatever
cads: mircea_popescu: I see it as a low entry cost into a promising finance research field
cads: mircea_popescu: yeah, even if mpex and btc are superseded, what agents learn about this market will be valuable in the future
mircea_popescu: with the current run up i'm not sure i'd call it low cost, but it IS moderate
mircea_popescu: especially considering what training traders costs on the fiat markets.
cads: mircea_popescu: at least I will not be competing with well established finance phds already working in the field :)
cads: I can turn this into a virtual finance university in time
cads: using BTC and its derivatives as the lesson ground and the tournament ground for the students
mircea_popescu: i would guess about a third of the best minds of this generation are more or less discreetly circling the matter.
mircea_popescu: even leaving aside the conference trail clowns, the ideological types and all the geek weirdoes,
cads: well I'd better know how to speak bitcoin before the hiring managers at large hedge funds realize it :)
mircea_popescu: even tiny minute things done in five minutes today will be a career down the road.
mircea_popescu: and mpex is all about creating a market and bulding an ecosystem, so.
cads: I think it will determine the long term fate of the btc
cads: in the sense that derivatives is what will give BTC the depth and complexity needed to take on the real world
mircea_popescu: {mircea_popescu} people don’t understand many things, chief among which that the world is at war, and finance is the means of that war.
mircea_popescu: {mircea_popescu} mpex is here to arm bitcoin with all the high impact high efficiency weapons fiat currencies have.
Bowjob: hey mp, some people are bitching that they bet on the Avalon bet
Bowjob: because they thought it includes batch 2
Bowjob: they think they;ll win by technicality since at the time, batch 2 was included
mircea_popescu: yeah well, people thinking they'll leech everyone else don't historically do so well on bitbet
mircea_popescu: there were people who waited for btc/usd to be 49.99 before betting
cads: some plan to design a building for someone
mircea_popescu: only to discover that no, bitcoin is not instantaneous
KRS1: Am I wrong by saying it looks like the market has peaked and is now heading downward?
cads: KRS1: not even wrong :)
mircea_popescu: what's that virtual reality game ? not second life, the other one
Bowjob: i have 1800 hrs clocked in that game
cads: yeah, games are nice, but trade center plans are nicer
Bowjob: well, half of it is probably done through trading
cads: despite not being... entirely needed at the time
Bowjob: and avalon released batch 3 already
cads: KRS1: aww that's cute how you treat mircea_popescu as the BTC godfather
Namworld: Is it really peaking tho? It's weekend and price seems to be holding
Namworld: I'd really like to see the 100 breached.
KRS1: I treaded mircea_popescu how?
Namworld: Yeah, well it's got to be losing steam by now
KRS1: Avalon seemed to have raied their prices?
cads: KRS1: hehe, no worries, it was just some meaningless teasing
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8150 @ 0.00067526 = 5.5034 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: tbh, from a macro perspective 100+ is prolly too much.
mircea_popescu: there's such a thing as too much attention, and so forth
Bowjob: You are showing your outward anger because you know you make close to no sense. If anything, this statement is worded vaguely enough that it should be considered a bad bet. The bottom line is that if you go by the betting statement wording and the dates, there are two batches under pre-order. Good attempt to sway betting action by writing a ridiculously vague statement, though. Read the betting statement word for word as it's
Bowjob: Bah, idk about those butthurt trolls
KRS1: cads: thats cool idk what you meant ..its all good..just came in for some mt gox market wisdom wanted to sell btc before the market dips as all markets do
mircea_popescu: me helping out "coding entrepreneurs", whatever the fuck that is now.
KRS1: im still waiting for my BFL SC I ordered in Aug. anyone know anything about that?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 66.66000, Best ask: 66.99995, Bid-ask spread: 0.33995, Last trade: 66.99997, 24 hour volume: 65609.91092104, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.91589
TradeFortress_: wonder if it's because it's real hard to buy btc right now
Bowjob: this sucks for people who bought in at 75
KRS1: my friend has some actual BFL hardware but not ASIC
mircea_popescu: TradeFortress_ i think it's safe to blame the entire coin* fiasco for it.
KRS1: Wow thanks for sharing
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5400 @ 0.00068407 = 3.694 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: the truely funny thing here, and this is a shoutout for all my conspiracy dawgs,
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 66.00001, Best ask: 66.30000, Bid-ask spread: 0.29999, Last trade: 66.30000, 24 hour volume: 66468.13921981, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.81931
Namworld: The day is not completed however. It may still be green by the end of the day.
Namworld: The previous dip on the 12th before the 50 wall was broken was more massive for a lower value.
Namworld: Proportionally it was much bigger.
Namworld: and the graph shows a lot of fluctuation. It even shows lower some time ago
Namworld: We were slighlty under 65 some time ago on coinlab and it popped back to 70...
Bowjob: i bet lucif is partying right now, saying he called this from 3 months ago
Namworld: We might fluctuate back and forth at the 75 wall until it breaks or buyers get tired.
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 1 @ 0.33002 BTC [-]
cads: Wow, this is a rush.
cads: How low can she go?
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.80946 BTC [+]
cads: so what w're seeing right now is essentially a random walk
cads: but we might attempt to compute its derivative to see in which direction it's walking?
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.80946 = 1.6189 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 63.59807, Best ask: 64.46880, Bid-ask spread: 0.87073, Last trade: 62.28200, 24 hour volume: 68148.80678210, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.72187
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 8 @ 0.0046 = 0.0368 BTC [-]
Bowjob: anyone watching coinlab? It's hurting
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.P750T] 10 @ 0.15298694 = 1.5299 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 52 @ 0.004639 = 0.2412 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: "Also, I am considering an increase in the price of the remaining IPO shares upon receipt of the company's batch 2 Avalon. Given the diminishing yield current shareholders have experienced while we await our first ASIC hardware I think it's fair to reward those that have held fast."
Bowjob: bull to the rescue i see some buying
KRS1: some decent buying?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 65.00150, Best ask: 65.02193, Bid-ask spread: 0.02043, Last trade: 65.00000, 24 hour volume: 76669.42587939, 24 hour low: 62.02310, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.02867
Bowjob: honestly, i dont see the ppoint to switching btc for fiat
mircea_popescu: who was saying options aren't high enough ? :D jurov ^
mircea_popescu: being the smartest person at nasa is probably softer competition
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4108 @ 0.00068613 = 2.8186 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00068821 = 3.4411 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7292 @ 0.00068991 = 5.0308 BTC [+]
Namworld: [03:28] <TradeFortress_> just bet 10 btc on bfl not shipping before apr 1st
Namworld: [03:28] <TradeFortress_> free coins
Namworld: well you could bet 100 BTC at current weight and get 1/20th of 60 so 3 BTC
Bowjob: Also, I am considering an increase in the price of the remaining IPO shares upon receipt of the company's batch 2 Avalon. Given the diminishing yield current shareholders have experienced while we await our first ASIC hardware I think it's fair to reward those that have held fast.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.7821 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.782 BTC [-]
Bowjob: where did this quote came from
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.7811 = 1.5622 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 26 @ 0.78102 = 20.3065 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.77002 = 3.0801 BTC [-]
Bowjob: didnt bitcoin drop when batch 2 released
Bowjob: my old account didnt work for batch 3 shipment, i guess i have to register again
Namworld: buy bitcoins is pretty much the same tho
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 64.05000, Best ask: 64.30000, Bid-ask spread: 0.25000, Last trade: 64.30000, 24 hour volume: 79479.64260130, 24 hour low: 62.02310, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 68.77207
Bowjob: I went to SR today, just to check things out.. You could actually buy candies with it
Bowjob: They had interestig stuff.. a cellphone jammer, a gps tracker, hacking ebooks, wireless camera detector.. shit that can get me in trouble
Bowjob: ah, didnt check. the site was too slow for me
Bowjob: they had banned books, guides on how to make meth, guides about hiding things,
Bowjob: even a guide about picking up chicks.. and some porn links.
cads: Bowjob: surely nothing that's not also available via the torrent sites?
Bowjob: yeap, ive recognized one ive watched before, actually
cads: mircea_popescu: do you believe that blockchain datamining will at some point begin revealing the identities of the SR early adopters?
cads: To quote my baby brother, 'why not?'
Namworld: SR is a free market really... I guess anyone can peddle just about anything
Namworld: My pockets farm is producing lots of extra lint this year...
mircea_popescu: cads well, how much do you understand about the blockchain ?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.03000, Best ask: 62.20000, Bid-ask spread: 0.17000, Last trade: 62.03000, 24 hour volume: 83830.41415795, 24 hour low: 62.02310, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 68.41685
Bowjob: that knife.. i can feel it
cads: mircea_popescu: I've read shamir's paper where shamir tracks cashflows from originator to recipient, even through large networks of obfuscation
mircea_popescu: cads shamir is an idiot and his paper is about 80% nonsense.
cads: mircea_popescu: he handwaves his treatment of the block chain
cads: so I don't know how much to believe
mircea_popescu: ok, let's see here. do you understand public key criptography ?
cads: I definitely do need to read the hashcash papers and the original satoshi paper
cads: mircea_popescu: yes, I understand those reasonably well
mircea_popescu: given an arbitrary set of public keys and an arbitrary set of encrypted messages
mircea_popescu: what chances do you give yourself to identify which messages were addressed to which keys ?
cads: mircea_popescu: a naive search should scale exponentially :P
mircea_popescu: you're presuming key information is included as plaintext.
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.P730T] 9 @ 0.15137648 = 1.3624 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.P750T] 8 @ 0.17605726 = 1.4085 BTC [+]
cads: right, bruteforce is exponentialish
mircea_popescu: yeah, well, the particular hashing scheme used by the bitcoin addresses is calculated to be unbruteforceable
mircea_popescu: so it's exponential outside of the real of the physically possible.
Bowjob: well, we may be dropping
cads: anyways, that seems like a red herring because the has tree has more structure than the two sets of messages and keys
Bowjob: but the fundamentals are exceedingly strong
mircea_popescu: you can run bitcoin in such a manner as to not include more structure than unrelated pairs, ever.
cads: mircea_popescu: even the devs claim that bitcoin transactions can be tracked if they're not intractably mixed via a mixer.
mircea_popescu: if you make one wallet per inbound payment, there's no tracing possible.
tiberiusiv: that guy offering his house for BTC marked the top
mircea_popescu: as no two addresses are ever going to be joined in inputs
cads: mircea_popescu: it sounds like your account is not much better. I will have to read the paper for myself and faithfully learn the scheme.
cads: enough second guessing for me :)
mircea_popescu: well, it's not practical to run 100% security, as is always the case
mircea_popescu: which conversely means you can never be certain you'll get analytical results worth a crap.
cads: I need to see a theoretical paper on the function of anonymization mixers too
cads: unless these things give us provable cryptographic guarantees of anonymity, I don't trust it
cads: so they work on what is essentially wishful thinking
mircea_popescu: maybe there's parts of that i don't understand, but afaik...
mircea_popescu: anyway, as best i can determine the only workable mixer paradigm is what mpex employs :
cads: mircea_popescu: I guess I have my new research questions
tiberiusiv: no other asset class loses 20-30% in the span of 2hrs
mircea_popescu: if you are the reading sort, the old crypto mail list discussions with satoshi et all are quite informative on many topics
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.529 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: no other asset class is plagued with such a concentrartion of high powered idiots.
Namworld: You should see OTC... real panic...
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.P730T] 6 @ 0.1588357 = 0.953 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.P750T] 5 @ 0.18424999 = 0.9212 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.57099998 BTC [-]
cads: <maji> ITS NOT GOING TO STOP
Namworld: bids remain strong tho yet asks...
assbot: Ah, your hair. Your hair is soft. It's like a girl's. Now how do you get it that way?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 58.22000, Best ask: 58.80000, Bid-ask spread: 0.58000, Last trade: 58.22000, 24 hour volume: 92634.92542725, 24 hour low: 57.80000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 67.57447
Bowjob: hey, its a good opportunity to buy now
Bowjob: for Avalon 3 if yo want
cads: Namworld: the yay part is that I panic sold back when things were at my favorite number, 69
tiberiusiv: guy offering his house for BTC marked the top
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 57.78000, Best ask: 57.85000, Bid-ask spread: 0.07000, Last trade: 57.85000, 24 hour volume: 94019.67462292, 24 hour low: 57.78000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 67.43441
tiberiusiv: BTC can go to single digits in the span of 4hrs
tiberiusiv: theres no bids relative to BTC outstanding
tiberiusiv: you only need 1-2% of bitcoins being sold at a given time to crash the price
Namworld: [04:49] <manosyd> if it goes near 45, it wiill stabilize there for atleast a month or so
Namworld: [04:49] <manosyd> then when the bounce comes, no stopping it till 120
Namworld: more excellent quotes from OTC
Bowjob: im strangely calm amids all this chaos
Bowjob: amidst. fuck i cant spell
Bowjob: panic selling is a bad bad baahd idea
Namworld: I have shares earning in USD... I have stocks in BTC...
Namworld: Really, to me, both way is fine
Bowjob: no changes in fundamentals, we'll have bear meat soon
Namworld: Goes to a low price, I get cheap bitcoins
Namworld: Goes high, I get lots of value out into bitcoin stuff
Bowjob: seems like LTC goes up when btc goes down
Bowjob: and the other way around too
Namworld: My favorite way of cashing out is through funding some businesses I like I Bitcoinland.
Bowjob: LTC keeps 50 cents mhm
Bowjob: those two numbers were switched the other way
Bowjob: we lost about 1/3rd of BTC's purchasing strength
cads: but I want to follow the market down so I can buy back in when it's done
Bowjob: maybe ianbakewell will go legit..
Bowjob: saying.. he got into an accident
tiberiusiv: you wont be able to buy when its done because theres barely any coins offered until 65
Bowjob: and pays everyone at this point
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 53.01000, Best ask: 53.55000, Bid-ask spread: 0.54000, Last trade: 53.01000, 24 hour volume: 107782.51352993, 24 hour low: 53.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 65.83923
tiberiusiv: at the end of the day BTC is nothing more then a confidence game
cads: This drop feels good. Like being overdrunk, and finally vomiting the extra poison out.
Bowjob: and... I'm down $4000 in unrealized profit
Bowjob: might as well play dice to get those unrealized profits back
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 55.00000, Best ask: 55.71460, Bid-ask spread: 0.71460, Last trade: 55.71460, 24 hour volume: 108334.59487058, 24 hour low: 53.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 65.77385
tiberiusiv: mpex loses close to 40% of market cap in under 2 hours
mircea_popescu: it probably gained a lot in zimbabwe dollars or w/e other fake currency out there nobody cares about.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 56.87473, Best ask: 59.49000, Bid-ask spread: 2.61527, Last trade: 59.49000, 24 hour volume: 108334.59487058, 24 hour low: 53.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 65.77385
Bowjob: all right you stupid bears. You will eat the knife. and like it too
gribble: Error: "ask" is not a valid command.
mpexbot: mircea_popescu: 0.0966739654541 seconds
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 60.70000, Best ask: 61.23400, Bid-ask spread: 0.53400, Last trade: 61.23400, 24 hour volume: 115184.27493444, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.81793
Bowjob: arent you always negative
Bowjob: it bothers me that gox fucks up their trades
Bowjob: will coinlab be like this too?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.00000, Best ask: 62.80000, Bid-ask spread: 0.80000, Last trade: 62.80000, 24 hour volume: 116073.49685910, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.74844
Namworld: notice the warning in red over the ticker
mircea_popescu: o hey, their site doesn't load in my browser. so much win.
Namworld: the warning says: "Mt. Gox sockets are down. Trade data will not update until they come back online, and depth data will only update once every 15 minutes. Sorry! "
mircea_popescu: this is reminiscent of tradehill's "the old tradehill site is to blame" response to defrauded customers complaining on tyheir failed relaunch attempt
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.90000, Best ask: 63.16668, Bid-ask spread: 0.26668, Last trade: 62.90000, 24 hour volume: 116073.49685910, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.74844
Bowjob: it went 53, someone reported getting an order filled for 51
Bowjob: that must hurt for the bear
mircea_popescu: next time anyone wants to trust the conference trail scum with a toy worth half a billion dollars,
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.48999, Best ask: 62.49000, Bid-ask spread: 0.00001, Last trade: 62.49000, 24 hour volume: 116073.49685910, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.74844
gribble: There are currently 0 bitcoins offered at or under 55.0 USD, worth 0.0 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0023 seconds
gribble: There are currently 17190.312 bitcoins demanded at or over 52.0 USD, worth 937427.107527 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.3785 seconds
gribble: There are currently 8854.509 bitcoins demanded at or over 55.0 USD, worth 494777.013854 USD in total. | Data vintage: 25.2820 seconds
gribble: There are currently 831.89671 bitcoins demanded at or over 58.0 USD, worth 48595.2207021 USD in total. | Data vintage: 31.6176 seconds
Bowjob: 30 seconds is too late in bitcoinland
Bowjob: canadianbitcoins used to be pretty cheap, sometimes even lower than gox prices
Bowjob: you could buy from canadianbtc and make profit arbitraging it to fastcash4bitcoins
Bowjob: cadbtc selling for 13.5, fastcas paying 14
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 61.95000, Best ask: 62.48999, Bid-ask spread: 0.53999, Last trade: 61.95000, 24 hour volume: 126755.91316438, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.42759
Namworld: Actually, fees on cavirtex are 3% to .5% depending on volume...
Namworld: Assuming an average of 2% and daily trading of 1500 BTC
Namworld: Divided by 100 000 shares (10k IPOed for 10%), that's 0.0003 BTC per day
Namworld: So 0.1095 BTC per year or 25% per year
Namworld: Been around since 2011 and actually legitly registered.
Bowjob: they trade btc higher than gox
error4733: why they need money ? what they wanna do with IPO money ?
Bowjob: but the 3% is killing me
Bowjob: they are registered legitly
Bowjob: "lol, party is over. Years long downtrend in place now. " -proudhon
error4733: "24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900" a trader fantasy
Bowjob: i didnt move my position. i just watched the action
Bowjob: *yawn, im getting desensitized to this
Namworld: AMC is valuating themselves at 1 million BTC?!?
TradeFortress: for those who wish they bought avalons / asicminer
Namworld: anonymous dude with zero info whatsoever except bold claims in the text on bitfunder... no website, no info, no nothing
Namworld: AMC's offering is comprised of 100,000,000 shares in total.
Namworld: 1 share of AMC on BitFunder represents 1/100,000,000th of 100% of the monthly profits after all expenses.
Bowjob: Active Mining Cooperative
Namworld: If they sell for like 1000 BTC (100 000 shares)
TradeFortress: mircea_popescu, wasn't actually listed on the homepage for a while
Namworld: They get to keep 99.9% of everything
Bowjob: it's not like bears went unscathed. bears got gored at 52.
TradeFortress: Net Estimated ROI/Year @ .01 BTC/share 2,847.47208%/Year*
mircea_popescu: a well, as long as people are willing to put btc in that people deserve to.
Bowjob: holy fuck bitfunder if im trying to copy and paste dont close it up
Namworld: Don't people research/read contract/look at past history before putting some coins in?
Namworld: Est Gross(less power) Revenue 12 Months 2,847,472.08 BTC
Namworld: THERE'S NOT EVEN THAT MUCH MINING GOING TO HAPPEN! >.<
Namworld: I hope that 10 BTC was traded by the issuer to stimulate trading...
Namworld: How did Ukto let that go through?
Namworld: probably was meant to be 1500 USD but they screwed that
Bowjob: how come its 63 gigahash
Bowjob: thats slower than.. batch 1 and 2
unbalanced: bowjob re: "cadbtc selling for 13.5, fastcas paying 14" -- thanks I had to change my pants before realizing you were talking about the good old days
Bowjob: I actually pointed it out to topace, seems like he didn't care at the time
Bowjob: but cadbtc is so OP now
Bowjob: i never did arb from cadbtc to fastcash, seemed like a dick move
Bowjob: it was 65 gigahash guaranteed
Bowjob: but now 63 gigahash guaranteed
Bowjob: that doesnt make sense
Bowjob: why would they lower the guarantee rate
MJR__: I mean, for each batch
Bowjob: at this point you'd still make your investment back, though longer
unbalanced: cadbtc pegs to virtex recent history, not Mt. Gox, AFAIK
MJR__: you lose some chips that don't work
kakobrekla: you know how it goes with chiniese, each batch more btc, each batch less hash
MJR__: maybe the number that did between 63 and 65 was very significant
Bowjob: we actually didnt know that they were the first asic one
Bowjob: well, at this point provided bfl doesnt ship
Bowjob: batch 3 is gonna be a good deal
unbalanced: Virtex used to trade higher than Mt. Gox during uptrends, now seems to all the time. Supply/demand I figure.
Bowjob: even if bfl ships, i doubt they'd be able to ship all pre orders
MJR__: bitfloor ask is $69
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 64.46000, Best ask: 64.48000, Bid-ask spread: 0.02000, Last trade: 64.48000, 24 hour volume: 133914.42658800, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 64.05389
MJR__: I exercised my 41 calls at 71
unbalanced: At this rate I'll catch up to you guys and start asking q's about avalon in another hour or so.
Bowjob: anyways, anyone know how to run an avalon?
MJR__: lol, my friend was shorting
Bowjob: i haven't done any mining, at all. this is my first time mining
MJR__: so when he was happy about the 5 drop
MJR__: Bowjob: you would install the firmware I guess
MJR__: and hook it up to a computer...
Bowjob: I have not seen a video of avalon from start to finish
MJR__: or I think you could even just program it directly
MJR__: since it runs a Linux os
Bowjob: suppose i get the box, i open it. gloves and shit
MJR__: attach a monitor and a keyboard
Bowjob: "Setup your laptop IP address 192.168.0.101 "
MJR__: huh? are both devices on the same network?
MJR__: you directly attach your laptop to the Avalon
MJR__: and then you use a static IP on that port
MJR__: then you use a web browser to get to the config page
MJR__: similar to setting up a wifi router
Bowjob: If I can't figure this shit out by the time I get my avalon, 2 BTC pot to help me get it running
Bowjob: I was able to set up GGPO, so avalon shouldn't be too hard
Bowjob: i have a decend idea on how to do it, the webgui reminds me of my router
MJR__: my friend and I are working on an fpga design
Bowjob: anyone else got avalon 2?
Bowjob: I camped out on both days avalon 2s were for sale
MJR__: my friend has some very interesting ideas about latency vs throughput
MJR__: lol, I wish I had an Avalon
gribble: Current Blocks: 227574 | Current Difficulty: 4847647.152065606 | Next Difficulty At Block: 227807 | Next Difficulty In: 233 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 1 day, 1 hour, 32 minutes, and 3 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 6608097.13894 | Estimated Percent Change: 36.31556
MJR__: wow going to be a big jump...
MJR__: even with that new difficulty jump an Avalon more than pays for itself in a week
MJR__: don't know what the diff will be in 3 months...
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 60 @ 0.01301 = 0.7806 BTC [-]
MJR__: Next Difficulty Estimate: 6608097.13894 |
MJR__: at that level still 1 week
MJR__: so those receiving their avalons now should prob be good
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 6 @ 0.01101 = 0.0661 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 9 @ 0.01 = 0.09 BTC [-]
Bowjob: its nice of him though
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9386 @ 0.00068991 = 6.4755 BTC [+]
jurov: but the last comment "OKPAY should be refunded, too" may cause quite a shitstorm
jurov: why only miners, srsly?
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-TRADING-PT] 100 @ 0.1697 = 16.97 BTC [+]
jurov: avoorhees should ask for refunds, too if he lost anything.. wanna see what would the reply to *that* lol
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 786 @ 0.00069904 = 0.5494 BTC [+]
Bowjob: So who here will buy avalon3
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 65.85829, Best ask: 65.90000, Bid-ask spread: 0.04171, Last trade: 65.90000, 24 hour volume: 138785.79606428, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.49500, 24 hour vwap: 64.08160
leotreasure: i lol'd at your bfl vs avalon comparison Bowjob
MJR__: any news on the bfl front?
Bowjob: Actually, I had half a mind to plot all of BFL's delays on a chart
mircea_popescu: it's gotten to the point where "omg bfl shipping" => instatroll
MJR__: lol...in other news the sky is still blue
damientrog: any idea when avalon batch 3 will go on sale?
Bowjob: damien, very soon. like 1-2 day soon
Bowjob: I haven't made the chart yet.
Bowjob: MNW asked me about avalon 3 too
Anduck: Bowjob: i dont understand that pic =I
Anduck: mnw hasnt replied me :((
Bowjob: The first picture is box of fans
Bowjob: second picture is the avalon asic
Bowjob: At this point I believe batch 3 will still be profitable
Bowjob: since, having >20k pre orders.. is a nightmare
Anduck: i still dont get it xD
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 10 @ 0.00151 = 0.0151 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 10 @ 0.0015 = 0.015 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 1 @ 0.00142 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 12 @ 0.0014 = 0.0168 BTC [-]
MJR__: they are projecting that when you get it the difficulty will be a lot higher
MJR__: 10 million you still pay it off in a month
Bowjob: its stilla good buy, it will just put off many people
mircea_popescu: i wouldn't pay them 3x if it brought about the end of the world.
Bowjob: I considered ordering 5 more avalons if it was 5x
Bowjob: we should all ask bfl_josh about his seppuku ritual on april 1st
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 64.00000, Best ask: 64.10172, Bid-ask spread: 0.10172, Last trade: 64.10172, 24 hour volume: 140056.39573591, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 73.49500, 24 hour vwap: 64.07680
MJR__: well, the price is in some way tied to the difficulty
MJR__: I don't know the exact formula
MJR__: the price is a function of the difficulty
MJR__: that is by design I think
MJR__: but I know that that is the case
deadweasel: price whatever someone is willing to give you for it.
MJR__: not when I put 90 BTC on my website
Namworld: One really prices based on difficulty?
MJR__: that is what that one manufacturer is choosing to do
MJR__: you have to realize the motives of Avalon
MJR__: and it isn't purely profit
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.51 BTC [-]
gribble: You are identified as user Josh_Rossi, with GPG key id C286BB96FE9B6CD3, key fingerprint 3812AFD43A6B8A057F37D858C286BB96FE9B6CD3, and bitcoin address 1LokQrHj14NU93tC6pZfTZyyRHhAVakQmX
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 1 @ 0.00402 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.DICE] 100 @ 0.0044444 = 0.4444 BTC [+]
error4733: mjr you shoukd stop try stupid challenge
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 2 @ 0.00402 = 0.008 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 38 @ 0.004099 = 0.1558 BTC [+]
mjr_: trying to reinitialize the script that auto-challenges
assbot: [BTCTC] [COGNITIVE] 1 @ 0.16 BTC [+]
mjr_: thats just great...of all the people who could have had my name
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5136 @ 0.00070068 = 3.5987 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4268 @ 0.00070069 = 2.9905 BTC [+]
kakobrekla: lol bitinstant > The shitty thing is that the last time I sent Shrem an e-mail it bounced. And I got the message: Could wait no longer, mailbox full.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 6 @ 0.51 = 3.06 BTC [-]
smickles: it's like he just came out of nowhere asking for mpex to be made, and the chan was like "/me points to mpex"
FabianB: indeed, just finished backlog
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 14 @ 0.004639 = 0.0649 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.MPOE-PT] 2 @ 0.000677 = 0.0014 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 2 @ 0.0014 = 0.0028 BTC [-]
kakobrekla: Coinbase uses MongoDB for their primary datastore for their web app, api requests, etc. Coinbase is a decentralized, digital currency that is changing the world of payments.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.5840001 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 29 @ 0.584 = 16.936 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.5979999 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 23 @ 0.598 = 13.754 BTC [+]
gribble: Error: Failure to retrieve ticker. Try again later.
tiberiusiv: bitinstant has like a 25% chance your transfer fails
tiberiusiv: and it takes them up to 5 days to "push the coins through"
mod6: (02:10) < tiberiusiv> zyphus you should exit (02:10) < tiberiusiv> single digits are not that far
assbot: [BTCTC] [RSM] 1 @ 0.005 BTC [-]
mod6: trolled these d00dz hard lastnight 'eh
assbot: [BTCTC] [RSM] 1 @ 0.0044 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [RSM] 8 @ 0.00311 = 0.0249 BTC [-]
mod6: i guess those guys were losing their minds
tiberiusiv: one of them almost sold me their coins for 25
smickles: "electronic harmonic variance" sounds like shit spewed from a powerband salesman
gribble: Time since last block: 51 minutes and 39 seconds
gribble: Current Blocks: 227618 | Current Difficulty: 4847647.152065606 | Next Difficulty At Block: 227807 | Next Difficulty In: 189 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 21 hours, 17 minutes, and 44 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 6606350.12053 | Estimated Percent Change: 36.27952
smickles: maybe their client is just borkd
mod6: my client is so far behind....
mod6: it's on the .7 though
smickles: ofc, i havn't sync'd in about 16 hours
mod6: i hate starting it up cause it send my HD to 0 response time damn near
mod6: mine is 70 days behind still
smickles: it's most likely blockchain.info's client getting stuck
gribble: Time since last block: 33 seconds
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 18 @ 0.5998888 = 10.798 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 7 @ 0.51 = 3.57 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 13 @ 0.6 = 7.8 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.51 = 2.04 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 62 @ 0.004099 = 0.2541 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 3 @ 0.4855 = 1.4565 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 67 @ 0.00361 = 0.2419 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.485 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.485 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.48000002 = 1.92 BTC [-]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 65.10000, Best ask: 65.41901, Bid-ask spread: 0.31901, Last trade: 65.10000, 24 hour volume: 155857.54158041, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.86999, 24 hour vwap: 63.91405
gribble: There are currently 9000.1244 bitcoins offered at or under 70.0 USD, worth 618708.528579 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0021 seconds
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.6 BTC [+]
gribble: There are currently 10059.132 bitcoins demanded at or over 60.0 USD, worth 624598.081772 USD in total. | Data vintage: 19.2737 seconds
mpexbot: mod6: 1 day: no data 7 day: average: 67.50931133 high: 70.0111051 low: 51.26011131 volume: 14605 btc: 3123.57547556 30 day: no data
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.6 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 5 @ 0.6 = 3 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 19 @ 0.65 = 12.35 BTC [+]
mod6: this might be one of the more idiot posts in a while
mod6: We have a world to conquer out there, and we don't want to end up like Unix.
mod6: WRONG you want to end up exactly like unix
mod6: the path of least resistance is where the river will follow and flow through, to meet his own anaology
assbot: Last trade for S.DICE on MPEX was at 0.0044444 BTC [+]
mod6: and with UNIX, it's tried and true, open and tested. and loved by the best compsci people in the world for a /reason/
mod6: mircea_popescu & MPOE-PR are right, the btctalk people are turbo-idiots
mod6: well, i guess he's only had 3 posts.
mod6: still, what a toolbox
mod6: and I think since gox is all fuxd all the time with its price signals
mod6: the OIX is simply getting to be a better ave
mod6: i dunno, it seems pretty accurate, i guess because the price signals from gox fuel which strikes are most active..
mod6: but you can trade on MPEx evne through the heaviest and most coordinated DDoS attacks and it's solid
mod6: the fact we hang on gox data so much needs to change imho
mod6: ThickAsThieves: exactly
mod6: it would be awesome if it was "just one signal for price"
mod6: but its /the/ signal for price
ThickAsThieves: i really believe that when their suggested price gets stuck, it pulls down the whole market
mod6: everyone else wants to sell their BTC to tiberiusiv for $25 if there is too low of vol and the price collapses
mod6: i don't think anyone should choose anything per-se
mod6: i mean, think of how they do gas-station pricing on price per gallon?
mod6: 3 stations, three corners of the intersection.
tiberiusiv: theres nothing wrong with the gox price
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 3 @ 0.4792 = 1.4376 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: its the within the same range as all the other exchanges
tiberiusiv: whats the difference whose price you use? gox at the moment simply is the most liquid
tiberiusiv: mod6: gasoline is one of the most competitive markets around
ThickAsThieves: but arent 'all of the other sxchanges" basing decsisions on gox?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.47915 = 0.9583 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: gox does NOT set bitcoin prices for everyone
tiberiusiv: they simply have the most participants
tiberiusiv: they dont trail gox, they just have less activity
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 8 @ 0.479101 = 3.8328 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.00070068 = 0.9109 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00070069 = 3.5035 BTC [+]
mod6: there needs to be a few more exchanges with just as much or more liquidity and volume which don't race eachother to "a bottom" but just find a happy stable price amongst themselfs
mod6: like gas station pricing
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.4791005 = 1.9164 BTC [-]
mod6: you know what I mean?
tiberiusiv: they arent racing each other to a bottom
tiberiusiv: exchanges are simply forums for people to gather and through the auction style set prices
mod6: ;;gpg info tiberiusiv
tiberiusiv: you have 0 clue what you are talking about mod6 so be quiet :)
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves: campbx is extremely *illiquid*, that is why it seems it lags mtgox
tiberiusiv: there isnt enough participants on campbx
ThickAsThieves: but you dont think their bots influence price based on gox?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 5 @ 0.478999 = 2.395 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: participants needed US dollars for whatever reason so they sold bitcoins
ThickAsThieves: so the whole market coincidently drops $5 when gox does, with no relation?
tiberiusiv: its simple as that, and there were no willing buyers to pickup that size
tiberiusiv: so the price declines until buyers are willing to eat up the size offered
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 10 @ 0.468999 = 4.69 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves: the WHOLE market is 1 place.
mod6: you fucking dipshit
mod6: thats what i've been trying to say
mod6: what in the world are you doing her
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.44 BTC [-]
splnkr: the market is fragmented. that's the issue.
tiberiusiv: quit thinking exchanges are seperate markets
gribble: There are currently 37048263 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 6222641.70973 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0152 seconds
splnkr: mt gox is the biggest so it gets the attention
splnkr: without a liquid means of exchanging non-BTC funds among exchanges, i don't see how they're one market
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: THey are the same market but there is friction in the links. Very similar to the natural gas market
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.43000001 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: Europe will pay much more than US if russia turns off the taps, but the effects are still felt globally
tiberiusiv: there is 1 BTC market with many venues where to meet buyers or sellers
ThickAsThieves: i think its absurd to say that gox doesnt have influence on MANY fronts that influence price
tiberiusiv: gox itself is just the most liquid of those venues
splnkr: tiberiusiv: this is a semantic argument
Bugpowder: the gox market definitely sets the price
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.43 BTC [-]
splnkr: my understanding of "market" is a place where buyers and sellers can exchange
Bugpowder: plot the prices of various exchanges vs. gox
splnkr: not just a specific type of asset
tiberiusiv: the others only seem like that lag, because of lack of activity
ThickAsThieves: they lead thru buyer using it as spot, thru bots using it, thru asset exchanges using, thru chart reports using it
mod6: and how is that fucking different than what i was trying to say before you called me an idiot you faggot
mod6: im using it as a simple example dickweed
mod6: i expected someone as smart as yourself to know the differnce
Bugpowder: gox users do not pay attention to the price on any other exchange
tiberiusiv: you didnt know the difference between the 2
Bugpowder: all other exchages pay attention to the gox price
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.42000001 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: bots arbitrage all the exchanges
Bugpowder: my local bitcoins sale price is based on gox.
mod6: you make me almost want to rage quit this shit
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: too much transfer friction
Bugpowder: this point seems fairly academic though
tiberiusiv: on a street corner driving prices down
tiberiusiv: competing exchanges only drive down trading fees
Bugpowder: and there are other exchanges that trade pigs and steers and frozen concentrate OJ futures. But CME dominates them
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 63.25112, Best ask: 63.97999, Bid-ask spread: 0.72887, Last trade: 63.97999, 24 hour volume: 159365.08473773, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.86999, 24 hour vwap: 63.87592
ThickAsThieves: like i said when Gox data freezes, like their socket, or more importantly, their suggested price in the Buybox, it effectively changes the price to that until it stops
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: I disagree. There price just becomes unknown.
Bugpowder: traders with enough capital to move the market understand what is happening
ThickAsThieves: it just gets stuck at suggesting you pay 66 for 5 minutes
Bugpowder: maybe joe reddit with his 5 bitcoins gets confused
tiberiusiv: thats not the suggested price in the buy box
Bugpowder: their post volume vs BTC volume is all out of whack
tiberiusiv: the 2 prices most important are BIDS and ASKS
Bugpowder: yeah but the bid and ask are stale under high trading volume
ThickAsThieves: SR buyers, people who just buy when wthey get their deposits, people cashing out
ThickAsThieves: gox buybox says, pay this price and you get your coins
tiberiusiv: if you are cashing out you are paying attention to BIDS
Bugpowder: so just place your limit orders where you what to buy or sell and hope fulr the best
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 57 @ 0.004159 = 0.2371 BTC [+]
tiberiusiv: a seller looks for the bid, and a buyer looks for the ask
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.64 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: Gox website price is horribly inaccurate.
tiberiusiv: gox website could be a blank page and it would make 0 difference
smickles: oh you guys and your semantical differences
ThickAsThieves: and you really want to underestimate the population's neglect of orderbooks when buying bitcoin?
Bugpowder: I'm just annoyed that I had a 100BTC buy order at 52.139 that didn't quite get hit on the dip
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 63.00001, Best ask: 63.12648, Bid-ask spread: 0.12647, Last trade: 63.00001, 24 hour volume: 159630.25515694, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.86999, 24 hour vwap: 63.87384
tiberiusiv: when you buy BTC you can only buy what is offered at X price
tiberiusiv: it doesnt mean jackshit what the last price was
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: people that ignore it are n00bs that don't move the market
chmod755: erryone trades on gox - chmod doesnt - is getting rich faster
tiberiusiv: if i want to buy 10k BTC right now, i cant get it at the LAST porice
Bugpowder: What moves the market are people trading 100-10000 BTC. All of them know the game... At least after the first time they get goxraped.
tiberiusiv: i have to buy it at whats being offered
ThickAsThieves: hard to say on one day that Cyprus or other good news causes btc to go up, yet the market isnt easily influenced on bid price
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves you are clueless to markets.
tiberiusiv: BTC was already in an uptrend long before any cyprus news
smickles: my bot used the mtgox order book to a given depth to determin spot
tiberiusiv: 2012 had huge positive btc news, yet the price was still LOWER then 2011.
tiberiusiv: by the time something is news, its already OLD
smickles: also, i feel most -otc trades go something like "i'll sell 1 btc", "at what rate?", "let me check gox, ;;ticker"
ThickAsThieves: so you think all this uptake to the current price is mostly big players, and not amatuer speculators?
smickles: so in both those senses, gox sets the price
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: almost always other then unexpected events
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: the current price is mostly big speculators
smickles: not the company, mind you, the users
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: notice how no one wanted to trade their house for BTC at $2, but now at 70 everyone wants BTC?
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: yes, in an efficent market. Cyprus was big news and unexpected.
tiberiusiv: cyprus has been expected for over 2 years.
smickles: tiberiusiv: i was trying to sell a house when btc was at 2
Bugpowder: Deposit haircut was not anticipated
smickles: i even put it in the -otc order book
chmod755: cyprus is 0.1% of the eurozone
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: sure it was, all the major players already removed $ out of cyprus
splnkr: cyprus + mtgox--->USA + ASIC mining
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: it wasnt expected by the idiots who stayed
splnkr: lots of external factors affecting price right now besides trading
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: majority of russian funds were converted into german bonds over a year ago.
tiberiusiv: hence why german paper had negative interest rates
ThickAsThieves: in summary, gox influences price heavily, i have not heard a sound argument otherwise
tiberiusiv: considering gox is 80% of participants
tiberiusiv: of course its the most important venue.
splnkr: that figure is from 2 years ago isn't it
smickles: long story short, with the house i was trying to sell for btc, i ended up getting a qualified renter who declined to use btc to pay rent
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: I agree there has been a move to bunds.
chmod755: big news about cyprus.... a country with 300,000 citizens.... as a EU citizen nothing has changed for me during the last 5 years
mjr_: i would love to see what percentage of gox trades make up daily blockchain transactions
smickles: mjr_: watch bitcoin-monitor.com
benkay: do gox trades even hit the chain?
mjr_: not sure, but gox is definitely the worst
benkay: i thought their system traded internally until you pulled funds
mjr_: it exacerbates any price movements
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-BOND] 10 @ 0.009898 = 0.099 BTC [-]
mjr_: when people see price moves...they get in line for 10-120 seconds
tiberiusiv: mjr mtgox doesnt make up a big % of the blockchain transactions
chmod755: i don't understand why people use mtgox
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.0006928 = 0.9006 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1000 @ 0.00069279 = 0.6928 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: that is why the gox hack was reversible
smickles: chmod755: at one point, i made a full switch to bitfloor, then they got robbed
mjr_: pretty much exclusively
Bugpowder: and I suspect gox lag does contribute to instability
mjr_: well...i bought coins there
mjr_: and moved them around
tiberiusiv: so one guy thinks mtgox is a gas station, another that mt gox trades occur on the blockchain and a third who thinks gribble sets the price.
mjr_: so solvent enough for my needs
ThickAsThieves: <ThickAsThieves> but arent 'all of the other exchanges" basing decsisions on gox?
ThickAsThieves: <tiberiusiv> gox does NOT set bitcoin prices for everyone
tiberiusiv: mjr: sure your needs, what 0.2btc ? lol
ThickAsThieves: [14:12] <tiberiusiv> of course its the most important venue.
chmod755: smickles, it's your choice to trust a web service with your coins.....
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves the exchanges do not base their decisions on gox lol.
mjr_: i use them to buy coins not hold coins
mjr_: which last i checked is what exchanges were for
ThickAsThieves: when i say 'exchange' you know i mean in the abstract right?
smickles: tiberiusiv: you may have misunderstood me
tiberiusiv: thickasthives just be quiet. you are stupid
mjr_: if you can't see the gas station analogy as price advertising
mjr_: then you are retarded
chmod755: tiberiusiv, gribble sets the price. << that's true. he's one of the richest bots on the entire internet
mjr_: no gas station would say $20 a gallon, when across the street it says $5 a gallon
mjr_: competing markets drive everyone to a certain price set by the market
mjr_: its called price discovery and we are undertaking that right now
mjr_: btc-e has cheaper prices than gox...
mjr_: bitfloor has higher
mjr_: but that is only because of market inefficiencies
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 61.70568, Best ask: 61.70569, Bid-ask spread: 0.00001, Last trade: 61.70569, 24 hour volume: 161828.11644717, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.35000, 24 hour vwap: 63.81619
ThickAsThieves: gox is a standard because a standard was needed to let the market work better
smickles: tiberiusiv: what's your point about price discovery and gox? I think i missed it and i don't want to read the log
chmod755: errr well the majority of coins are not on gox
splnkr: coming soon: 24 hour low: 5.234560, 24 hour high: 723.5000
mjr_: splnkr: oh i hope so
mjr_: gets ready to buy at 5 before it hits $700
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, so what would happen if gox had a huge security issue....
chmod755: like even big services like FB and Google are not 100% secure
splnkr: yay roller coaster rides
mjr_: day traders boggle me...all you do is make the exchanges rich
mjr_: is bitcoin valuable as an idea? yes
Bugpowder: bitcoin is valuable in my bank account too
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, i think if more people traded on other exchanges it would allow them to make their services more secure and stuff (with fees, etc)
mjr_: its the network effect
mjr_: every user at gox gives a positive externality
ThickAsThieves: sadly when you try supporting other exchanges, all they do is fuck it up
Bugpowder: 1) make your exchange secure. then 2) I will trade on it
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, bitcoin central never had a problem
Bugpowder: gox probably has the best security right now, due to their previous issues and their capitalization.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 60.60000, Best ask: 61.30162, Bid-ask spread: 0.70162, Last trade: 60.60000, 24 hour volume: 162492.76340264, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.35000, 24 hour vwap: 63.80453
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, mtgox is not in the US
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, i think they also do USD
mjr_: coinlab? gox's partners?
chmod755: and they're almost as old as mtgox
Bugpowder: coinlab has no experience in the big leagues
mjr_: while we are talking about this...someone said that you could place multiple orders on gox ie. with $1000 i can place $1000 orders at multiple price points
splnkr: i believe that was late-breaking news yesterday
Bugpowder: splnkr: This is just a speculative pullback. Not related to WSJ
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-BOND] 26 @ 0.009898 = 0.2573 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: mjr_: yes, but only what you have will get filled
ThickAsThieves: the irony is that lesser exchanges must match gox price to have a fair chance of getting enough users to not rely on gox
Bugpowder: I'm not sure if all will display on the order chart if you don't have the funds
assbot: [BTCTC] [BTC-BOND] 44 @ 0.009899 = 0.4356 BTC [+]
ThickAsThieves: cant use bitcoincentral when they wasnt such a premium in USD
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: first mover advantage. S.DICE will never be beaten by a clone either
jurov: ThickAsThieves it is NOT bitcoincentral's premium
mjr_: yeah, so you are sending manipulative signals into the market
mjr_: i can make the order book look really really thick
mjr_: and then pull the plug
jurov: it's just cause there are more buyers and less sellers there, so to speak
mjr_: if i can place an order...i can cancel that order
chmod755: Bugpowder, game idea: bernankeDICE - bloat bank databases with small bank transactions!
mjr_: chmod755: great idea!
Bugpowder: wow. The gox bid ask are soooo far off right now
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 61.51000, Best ask: 61.99000, Bid-ask spread: 0.48000, Last trade: 62.00001, 24 hour volume: 164600.00323438, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 72.35000, 24 hour vwap: 63.77672
jurov: ThickAsThieves, i think even $5 difference in exchange rate is insignificant in the long run
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, just make a minimum on the bets
mjr_: what that is called, by the way, is Soft Buying Power
chmod755: i don't have a bank account in the US tho
mjr_: that is the limit to how many orders you can place
mjr_: Hard buying power is the limit to how many orders you can have filled
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, i could do something like that in Europe
mjr_: usually those numbers should be the same or maybe soft bp slightly higher
chmod755: lol 1000 transactions of 1EUR?
chmod755: ya, but if it changes from like a few tx per month
mjr_: anyways, my point is that gox is probably a horrible signal to listen to
mjr_: at least from a depth perspective
chmod755: mjr_, i prefer listening to music
mjr_: that is the obvious solution...
chmod755: ThickAsThieves, did you try exchanges?
chmod755: on a small exchange my money is more powerful!
assbot: [MPEX] [O.BTCUSD.C610T] 10 @ 0.0807819 = 0.8078 BTC [-]
mjr_: yes, it is more accurate...but still subjective somewhat
mjr_: because you basically choose what to include
mjr_: otc is a good price signal i think
mjr_: Bugpowder: can you place more orders than you have BP for?
mjr_: if i had my choice i would buy on btc-e and sell on bitfloor
Bugpowder: You can place more bids than you have funds for
mjr_: the suspense is killing me
Bugpowder: The bids you don't have funds for are not listed on the order book, starting from the lowest price down.
mjr_: on a buy order or sell?
mjr_: do they put the orders closest to top of the book or furthest
Bugpowder: So I placed a set of bids at 45-50, and by bids at 30 and 35 that I no longer have funds for disappear from the order bood
Bugpowder: but they are still listed on my own page as existing but unfunded.
mjr_: does that include api?
mjr_: ie. goxlive charts etc
mjr_: there site is slow too
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.0006928 = 0.9006 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5771 @ 0.00069279 = 3.9981 BTC [-]
mjr_: not sure where the complete book is
mjr_: not sure if they show it, but the end result is that there will be changes in the book that may not be expected
mjr_: especially if someone is running a bot and market making
Bugpowder: and the partially funded one shows up as 92.39 BTC instead of 100 BTC
mjr_: same with asks i am assuming
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.52000, Best ask: 63.64999, Bid-ask spread: 1.12999, Last trade: 63.64999, 24 hour volume: 165216.67676446, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 71.99000, 24 hour vwap: 63.76409
mpexbot: smickles: 1 day: no data 7 day: average: 67.50549924 high: 70.00595985 low: 51.26011131 volume: 14615 btc: 3124.38329456 30 day: no data
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.00463 BTC [-]
mpexbot: smickles: O.BTCUSD.C750T Bids: ['11 @ 0.03308446', '1000 @ 0.00823144']
mpexbot: smickles: Asks: ['13 @ 0.04908448', '1000 @ 0.05281501']
mpexbot: smickles: ^OIX 1 day: no data 7 day: average: 67.50549924 high: 70.00595985 low: 51.26011131 volume: 14615 btc: 3124.38329456 30 day: no data
mjr_: and we find 120 seconds lag frustrating
gribble: Current Blocks: 227645 | Current Difficulty: 4847647.152065606 | Next Difficulty At Block: 227807 | Next Difficulty In: 162 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 18 hours, 25 minutes, and 35 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 6615572.09208 | Estimated Percent Change: 36.46975
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 8 @ 0.509 = 4.072 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 9 @ 0.509 = 4.581 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 6 @ 0.509 = 3.054 BTC [+]
smickles: heh, goat is asking me about my offer to help people short s.mpoe
mpexbot: smickles: S.MPOE Bids: ['8990 @ 0.00069279', '5000 @ 0.00068222', '10000 @ 0.00068141', '4062 @ 0.00068033', '13500 @ 0.00067591']
mpexbot: smickles: Asks: ['1300 @ 0.00070068', '732 @ 0.00070069', '1300 @ 0.00070069', '22678 @ 0.0007007', '26444 @ 0.00070184']
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 56 @ 0.509 = 28.504 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.80698 = 1.614 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.80755 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.80769 = 3.2308 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 10 @ 0.8077 = 8.077 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 5 @ 0.8077 = 4.0385 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 20 @ 0.80945 = 16.189 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 10 @ 0.80947 = 8.0947 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.83 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.835 = 3.34 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.84 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.845 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 8 @ 0.8517 = 6.8136 BTC [+]
Bugpowder: mjr_: Joe Reddit mad at coin base. No sympathy here.
kakobrekla: regarding coinbase, what can you expect from mactards
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.00070068 = 0.9109 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 732 @ 0.00070069 = 0.5129 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.00070069 = 0.9109 BTC [+]
Namworld: producing nice design and poor code?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7668 @ 0.0007007 = 5.373 BTC [+]
kakobrekla: hackers should do code, finance people should do finance and mactards can go play in the sandbox
chmod755: and kakobrekla should do kakobrekla!
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15010 @ 0.0007007 = 10.5175 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 26444 @ 0.00070184 = 18.5595 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5646 @ 0.00070741 = 3.994 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 61.40136, Best ask: 61.50110, Bid-ask spread: 0.09974, Last trade: 61.50109, 24 hour volume: 167094.40968927, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 71.79900, 24 hour vwap: 63.67427
gribble: There are currently 8894.1816 bitcoins offered at or under 70.0 USD, worth 602226.070138 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0026 seconds
Bugpowder: sunday night, when the wires start clearing
tiberiusiv: bugpowder: wires clearing has nothing to do with anything.
tiberiusiv: first off bidders would already have been buying BTC, just to flip them to the new buyers if "wires clearing" bs. was true
tiberiusiv: amazing the level of ignorance of users.
ThickAsThieves: my name is tiberius and everything you say has nothing to do with anything
tiberiusiv: any new demand that is held up by technicalities is already priced in
tiberiusiv: people love to rationalize and explain away why something is at X price
tiberiusiv: yes and theres a reason 99% of them lose
tiberiusiv: 1% of traders are profitable in the long term
tiberiusiv: for example majority of fund managers cannot even beat the Sp500
tiberiusiv: trading is 0 sum, for someone to make money there has to be a loser
tiberiusiv: theres a reason why its the same people making the $ over and over
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.0007074 = 0.9196 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 203 @ 0.00070741 = 0.1436 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6755 @ 0.00070741 = 4.7786 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8142 @ 0.00071369 = 5.8109 BTC [+]
tiberiusiv: look at the bitcoin crowd for example, less then 1% of thetotal "community" contributes anything
tiberiusiv: its like what 20-30 individuals running services?
tiberiusiv: so it will be a natural tendancy even in bitcoin for 1% to have all the wealth
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: you are confusing an efficient market with the mtgox market.
Bugpowder: The tendency for downward moves during the weekend is real.
tiberiusiv: in bitcoin at the moment, about 20% of the users control 80% of the coins
ThickAsThieves: the events of the week can probably amplify or dampen that effect as well
Bugpowder: tiberiusiv: that is true in all things
awkorama: at least in bitcoin the tail won't be too long
tiberiusiv: since bitcoin has no bailout mechanism, alot of idiotic users ie those that use their coins wrecklessly drop out
tiberiusiv: lending bitcoins for example to people who sell them for fiat, you will lose
tiberiusiv: in the end i would say 1-2% of bitcoiners will control 80%+ of BTC
tiberiusiv: with the remaining 20% being fought over by the 99% percenters
ThickAsThieves: i will concede that generally buying and holding has been the safest way to invest in bitcoin and make profit
tiberiusiv: you havent made a profit until youve realized it.
tiberiusiv: its mathematically impossible for even 5% of total bitcoiners to all cashout
tiberiusiv: 100k which is 1% of bitcoins in circulation would collapse the price temporarily into the 30's
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves: the reality is that there are barely any viable bitcoin derived income producers
tiberiusiv: the only 2 currently are miners and gambling/speculative business's
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.84 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.771 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 9 @ 0.771 = 6.939 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.77 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.763 = 3.052 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.76201 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: because all other business's are not viable
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 9 @ 0.761102 = 6.8499 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 11 @ 0.761102 = 8.3721 BTC [-]
Namworld: mining doesn't seem viable to me anymore
Namworld: Most of minings thing end up being a losing proposition it seems.
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.63 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.64 BTC [+]
tiberiusiv: out of the tens of thousands of metal miners, not even a handful are profitable
Namworld: It's also a Bitcoin derived income.
Namworld: It's a currency exchange CAD <-> BTC
Namworld: Well that's not really speculation to me if it's for cashing out/buying some BTC
tiberiusiv: 90% of exchange volume is speculation, only 10% is for someone who actually needs BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.509 BTC [+]
tiberiusiv: you realize its maybe 10% who are cashing in and out?
tiberiusiv: cashing in to buy BTC to trade for something else is not
tiberiusiv: theres only 2 things you really need BTC for if you want to spend, silkroad and gambling
Namworld: I think most of the current price is speculation
Namworld: Which is what makes me think the whole current price is mostly speculation
Namworld: Merchants accepting Bitcoins don't get good results it seems
tiberiusiv: all markets in the world are speculative in nature
Namworld: and there's not legit BTC spenders
tiberiusiv: are you aware 95% of oil contracts are speculators?
tiberiusiv: theres no reason to spend BTC on anything other then SK or gambling
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.0006928 = 0.9006 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8990 @ 0.00069279 = 6.2282 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: theres nothing wrong with speculation.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00068222 = 3.4111 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2510 @ 0.00068141 = 1.7103 BTC [-]
tiberiusiv: suppose you want to purchase a $1k laptop
tiberiusiv: are you going to want to get rid of your BTC or your Fiat first?
tiberiusiv: you want to get rid of the "bad" money first
tiberiusiv: thats why any business selling goods that can be obtained with fiat will not be successful.
tiberiusiv: hence why illegal activites work so well with BTC
smickles: wouldn't ya know it. I go to spend some bitcoins, and the product is on backorder :|
Namworld: I tried lending and it burned. I tried buying/flipping/holding stocks and it's a huge success. I tried options but I'm kind of failing at that.
Namworld: Good selection of BTC stocks seems to be the way to go.
tiberiusiv: namworld: you can only lend BTC to people/entities that have BTC derived income
Namworld: There's less than 25% of what's available that's actually good/interesting at all tho.
tiberiusiv: which is not even 5 people at this point
jurov: not even 5 people???
jurov: me, kakobrekla, mircea_popescu, ukto
Namworld: Gigavps paid, amazingrando defaulted.
jurov: yea evoorhees, burnside
Namworld: They were the two largest public miners.
jurov: at least one of them gets salary from btc foundation
tiberiusiv: as i said, we are at 0.001% of total users?
jurov: okay but not "less than 5"
ThickAsThieves: i'm playing a drinking game, every time tiberius quotes a % with authority
tiberiusiv: which is a statistical 0 when compared to the 100k+ BTC users
jurov: archive.org employees (they didn't disclose how much it's yet)
tiberiusiv: thats why there is so many scammers, most borrowers are short selling BTC and posting nothing as collateral
jurov: plus i'm sure there were other tens of people who mined in 2009-2011 and now their income is nicely boosted
tiberiusiv: and then they cannot cover their shorts, ie come up with the fiat to buy BTC at 10x the price to repay a loan
jurov: um, and what are we arguing about? i agree that 1% btc users control over 90% of everything
tiberiusiv: and 1% will end up with 90% of the coins
jurov: and thet most of volume is gambling and speculation (often indistinguishable from each other)
jurov: no, 90%. if i have btcs on blockchain.info, who controls them?
jurov: i'd say they are under their control practically
tiberiusiv: we arent argueing, i was simply explaining its impossible for a business that accepts BTC only to be viable against a fiat competitor
tiberiusiv: people will always spend their bad money(fiat) first
jurov: not if btc prices are cheaper
gwillen: tiberiusiv: that's now how gresham's law works
ThickAsThieves: what if they run off loaned money and then achieve dominance
jurov: we have plenty of externalities here
tiberiusiv: jurov: nope in a fixed monetary system the prices will never be cheaper then fiat.
jurov: such as credit card taxes and regulatory bs in many areas
jurov: if they are elided, btc prices can be lower there
tiberiusiv: if you spent your bitcoins 3months ago on a new television, you just paid 300% more for it then paying with fiat
jurov: won't happend with groceries, ofc
tiberiusiv: the only way BTC is cheaper is if the business is completely BTC based
tiberiusiv: meaning input costs are fully paid in BTC
jurov: what about people getting "short" fiat and converting everything to btc?
tiberiusiv: selling electronics and accepting BTC to sell for USD to pay suppliers, will NEVER be cheaper then just using fiat
jurov: there it's much simpler to pay btc than to convert back to fiat
tiberiusiv: but you still are overpaying in the long run
tiberiusiv: btc sales will always be low or none existant
tiberiusiv: other then people who cant obtain the fiat
tiberiusiv: bitcoinstore is a prime example, it wont be around in its present form in 6months
tiberiusiv: they are resorting to begging tactics for sales
jurov: and alpaca socks croaked long ago, yea?
tiberiusiv: no that seller probably sells 10x in fiat
tiberiusiv: but there suppliers have to be paid in fiat
jurov: what about the externalities? you didn't reply to that
tiberiusiv: so youve introduced exchange rate fees as well
tiberiusiv: the only externality is someone who doesnt have access to fiat and obtains BTC somehow
jurov: for example in whole eastern europe it often happens that banks are closed
jurov: and deposits frozen
jurov: it isn't reported in media, but in greece it happened several times already in past 5 years
tiberiusiv: and the last thing someone with frozen funds is going to be doing is shopping for laptops on bitcoinstore
gribble: topace_ was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 2 days, 19 hours, 51 minutes, and 43 seconds ago: <topace_> haha
jurov: and even here business cash transactions over 1000 euro are illegal
tiberiusiv: again the customer base for bitcoinstore is too small to be a viable business
tiberiusiv: jurov: that means you cant cash buy BTC without breaking the law
tiberiusiv: bitcoin consumer business's require bitcoin incomes
tiberiusiv: of which nobody has other then a tiny %
jurov: again, why you think one can't convert their fiat income right after payday and then use btc exclusively?
tiberiusiv: its cheaper to use the fiat to buy the goods you need
tiberiusiv: vs being down 5% off the bat just in exchange.
tiberiusiv: that is a critical difference most people do not understand
jurov: i'm talking about BOTH spending and saving
jurov: and added safety that once they convert, no one can freeze it
tiberiusiv: they would only have done well if they saved 100%
tiberiusiv: if they spent it, they missed out on the gains
ThickAsThieves: they woiuld have the maximum amount of their money in btc
jurov: O.o you lose me here
tiberiusiv: thickasthieves: i just said bitcoin is BETTER to save in
jurov: so you're suggesting to forego eating etc. and save bitcoins instead?
tiberiusiv: fiat also offers more guarantee of the product
jurov: look say i get 1000 euro paid. convert them immediately to 25BTC for 40 EURO/BTC
jurov: then later i convert some back to fiat at 45 EUR/BTC when i need groceries/etc.
jurov: say i convert 15BTC back
tiberiusiv: if i saved BTC at $20 in 2011. did i stop eating for an entire year?
jurov: yes that's the risk. but then one has usually only to wait day or two
jurov: for the rate to recover
tiberiusiv: you had to wait 2 years for the rate to recover from 2011
jurov: when it was not true? last time in 2011
jurov: then your saving would be hit, too
tiberiusiv: YOU DONT HOLD BALANCES YOU NEED TO SPEND IN BTC
jurov: that was only 1 month of 12. rest 11 month it would work
jurov: tiberiusiv is funny
ThickAsThieves: tiberius i think youre pretty smart but a lot of your arguments amount to "no suh!"
jurov: when the banks freeze, you starve too
tiberiusiv: any money you need for immediate consumption or consumption purposes
tiberiusiv: jurov you have the option of paper cash
tiberiusiv: you dont need to use the bank for anything otherthen cashing a paycheck
jurov: but then ALL of your money is inaccessible, with btc you still have half
tiberiusiv: even then you can cash it at 3rd parties
ThickAsThieves: people still hold fiat even with credit cards around forever
jurov: yes, you have to get paid in cash
tiberiusiv: BTC should only be used as a savings vehicle, and purchasing equities in viable BTC business's(which are rare)
ThickAsThieves: if the scales tip from fiat to btc, all these dynamics would shift anyway
tiberiusiv: for consumption purposes, especially when liquidity is *immediately* required
tiberiusiv: unless your lanlord accepts btc for food/rent
jurov: tiberiusiv, everyone gets paid to bank acct here and to get cash you have to pay a fee
jurov: so it's better to convert to btc outright
Namworld: I pay groceries by converting BTC -> fiat
jurov: yes, i convert back from btc only to pay for 2 weeks of groceries
tiberiusiv: someone that bought BTC on friday with their entire paycheck, is now down 10%+
Namworld: I actually get 100% of my income in BTC
tiberiusiv: they have to wait for the price to rebound in time, of which there is no guarantee
kakobrekla: look tiberiusiv we understand you are butthurt but calm down, its simple math nothing new to see here, move along
jurov: yes, but i believe on average this strategy will be successful
tiberiusiv: anyone that followed your advice over the last 2-3 years has either starved to death or forced to take losses for immediate consumption needs jurov.
jurov: so you talk so sure
awkorama: jurov: do you have a bitcoin topped debit card or something ?
tiberiusiv: a secret one that hes not telling us about
jurov: no. but i can convert to bitcoins in 2 days with seap transfer
jurov: then i either lend fiat
jurov: because i expect that the rest of my btc investment will make up for that
kakobrekla: you know, to be here, you have to be able to grasp price of btc can go down, is all.
jurov: so then i should be banned, no?
deadweasel: you can grasp it and still risk it all :)
jurov: Church of Gresham's Law
jurov: and well, if indeed the price falls back to $5.. then i'll get a job, i guess :D
jurov: i couldn't be living off coinbr then
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3100 @ 0.00069056 = 2.1407 BTC [+]
jurov: at least not with clear conscience, that is.
Namworld: What happened to tiberius? Was muted by assbot?
Namworld: I still see tiberius in the room
assbot: [MPEX] [S.BBET] 100 @ 0.0018 = 0.18 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16050 @ 0.00069616 = 11.1734 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 61.10002, Best ask: 61.35000, Bid-ask spread: 0.24998, Last trade: 61.10001, 24 hour volume: 165900.25850346, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 70.78800, 24 hour vwap: 63.35623
assbot: [BTCTC] [PAJKA.BOND] 1 @ 0.07 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 1 @ 0.00409 BTC [-]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 62.41109, Best ask: 62.88799, Bid-ask spread: 0.47690, Last trade: 62.84941, 24 hour volume: 159222.47535996, 24 hour low: 52.34560, 24 hour high: 70.78800, 24 hour vwap: 63.16369
gribble: There are currently 9945.1213 bitcoins offered at or under 70.0 USD, worth 678561.252983 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0025 seconds
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.014 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [PAJKA.BOND] 1 @ 0.108 BTC [+]
gribble: There are currently 0 bitcoins offered at or under 60.0 USD, worth 0.0 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0021 seconds
gribble: There are currently 5618.6104 bitcoins demanded at or over 60.0 USD, worth 343256.721569 USD in total. | Data vintage: 9.9809 seconds
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.014 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 2 @ 0.01401 = 0.028 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01401 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.014 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 10 @ 0.01625 = 0.1625 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 59 @ 0.01989 = 1.1735 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01988 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01989 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 99 @ 0.0199 = 1.9701 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 334 @ 0.019929 = 6.6563 BTC [+]
Namworld: I haven't seen Ukto/Topace in a while
ThickAsThieves: i think topace said he was taking a break for the weekend
jurov: and our fellow goat seems to "wonder how shorting a stock on a guys own exchange would work" haha
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 16319 @ 0.00069175 = 11.2887 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1181 @ 0.00069415 = 0.8198 BTC [+]
unbalanced: Namworld, I see you run S.DICE-PT... currently lower than Havelock's SDICE so I wonder could I arb that? I only trade on HI so far but I keep seeing SDICE lower on MPEX and elsewhere so I may need to diversify.
unbalanced: Not sure if arbitrage is the right concept, but at least diversification.
unbalanced: Correct me if I'm wrong, I could only txfr the bitcoins around, not the SDICE shares between passthroughs?
unbalanced: going afk to grab a bite but will swing back later to check logs
ThickAsThieves: you could arb if you owned shares in each location, or if you bought on mpex and trasferred (in some bulk, minimums depends on who youre dealing with, as do fees)