559100+ entries in 0.382s
mike_c: right after dinner :)
to be continued later.
mircea_popescu: except, of course, as i shown above, if
they bet rationally
they do have a rational incentive
to move
the odds if
they believe
the odds.
mike_c: and OBVIOUSLY nobody is going
to maintain
the 60% because
the
time weighting!
mircea_popescu: well OBVIOUSLY
then it's also
the only way
to lose money. eh ?
mike_c: and obviously market inefficiency is
the only way
to make money at parimutuel wagering..
mircea_popescu: in which case your 1 will have
to be covered
to maintain
the 60%. do
that.
mircea_popescu: but
that's not because of
the system.
that's because of market inefficiency (your bet didn't get covered)
mircea_popescu: (ie, people betting one single side
THINK
they are. but
they aren't.
they should reserve
the other anyway, if playing sanely)
mircea_popescu: it doesn't matter what you bet. i put both wagers down explicitly
to get all
terms on
the
table and leave no stone unturned.
mike_c: yeah, i'm about
to school ya :)
mircea_popescu: and i'd argue it's fair you realise SOME of
the 60-65 difference but not all, inasmuch as well... you're both on
the right side of 50%, just you're 50% closer.
mike_c: ok.. so you meant 4 btc and 6 btc in
the beginning.
mircea_popescu: (if you
throw 1 btc blindly on a 65% odds event you should overall make .65 back)
mike_c: yes, well, first off
that was silly
mike_c: but ok, i'll work with
that.
mike_c: well *that* doesn't happen until late in
the bet
mike_c: but you still can't bet profitably, because
time weighting has progressed and only made it profitable if you
think
the odds are something like 82%
mike_c: you believe
the odds are actually 65%
mike_c: "market", i.e. what
the money says is
that
the odds of yes are 60%
mircea_popescu: in
the sense
that if you figure
the odds
two weeks late and
the market already is stable you're... late ?
mike_c: the beginning of
the bet (high weight) and
the end of a bet (high confidence) are
the best
two
times
to bet
mike_c: It is often not profitable
to bet given your estimation of
the odds and
the current weight.
mike_c: the
time weighting system puts a dead zone in
the middle of
the lifetime of a bet
mircea_popescu: i guess in
the end bitbet will spawn a bit phrasing discussion forum
mircea_popescu: and since kako's reforms,
that's quite universal, nobody can say "if only i had
thought of zeroconfing it"
mike_c: right,
the initial wager
mike_c: there should be a 'bet author' credit. make people famous, and
then i'd know who
to yell at about some of
these
terms.
mike_c: well, we all know by now
that
the
title is not controlling :)
mircea_popescu: "Gavincoin orphan chain
to reach 50 blocks before being abandoned" is kinda not
the same as "Blockchain will increase"
☟︎ mircea_popescu: i'd argue
that bet doesn't actually do what
the
title says.
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin main net block size
to increase in 2015 :: 0.03 B (3%) on Yes, 1.07 B (97%) on No | closing in 10 months 1 week| weight: 98`183 (100`000
to 1) ... (
http://bit.ly/1wyTgXy )
mircea_popescu: i mean, in such a way as partisanship can't hijack
the meaning post facto
thestringpuller: Will likely require someone
to monitor both forks (running both versions) if
the event occurs as a resolution source. (Resolution source still required).
thestringpuller: This bet resolves no if Gavin's proposed hard fork is launched, and in succession achieves 51% consensus of
the network.
This bet resolves yes, if
the current Bitcoin fork keeps 51% consensus of
the network, or if Gavin's proposed hard fork is never launched.
thestringpuller: mircea_popescu: what would be a good resolution source for
this bet:
mircea_popescu: i suppose
this is all moot since anything can read any file as data and
trhen execute it as code anyway
mircea_popescu: no wonder ubuntu and systemd are what's left on
that smoldering pyre.
mircea_popescu: to
think 1991 - 2011 were spent in a "oh linux is better
than windows" nonsense, instead of being spent
to, you know, make a sane environment.
undata: along
those lines having files owned by a single group is brain dead
irdial: Presumably a "default file permission on creation" of any new file would fix it,
then you would be forced
to set
the executable bit every
time.
mircea_popescu: clearly "executing" an archive is not
the same as decompressing it.
mircea_popescu: but really,
the problem is folders=files and execution = opening
mircea_popescu: contrarywise, if your idea is
that one needs
the priviledge
to make files executable,
then
this situation where a file is modified and stays executable makes 0 sense.
mircea_popescu: well if
the idea is
that "he who has
the authority
to modify a file always has
the authority
to also execute it"
then "executable" bit makes 0 sense.
undata: the latter is more aligned with what actually happens,
the file doesn't execute itself, something invokes it
undata: yep,
the former has sane security consequences
mircea_popescu: if your philosophy is
that
the file modification is what you defend against.
mircea_popescu: undata i
think it'd be better
that
the execute bit gets
trashed every
time
the file is modified.
undata: what do you
think would be better, a sort of stream header
that indicates
the nature of
the bits
to come?
mircea_popescu: however, if you > or >> a filename
that exists already, you can run it just fine.
mircea_popescu: so if you > or >> a filename
that doesn't exist and you want
to run it, you have
to set a permission bit separately.
thestringpuller: "You want an irradiated mushroom? Fine." "An unreulated bank
transfer?!? Come with us
to federal prison plz."
TomServo: I'll have
to agree, most my #b-a chuckles and belly laughs are from asciilifeform
thestringpuller: the "what fraction of heat loss is from breathing or will we 'insulate'
that as well." made water come out of my nose
thestringpuller: asciilifeform:
thanks. I remember someone reading a news article on
that in school years ago.
ben_vulpes: i read a permutation
that had him in front of a microwave dish.
thestringpuller: anyone ever read
the story about
the guy who fell asleep next
to a reactor cause he was cold
BingoBoingo: Well... in USSA who but Preet can know what crime is. What I can see
though is
that was order #21874 and #21876 was
the very last entered
jurov: poor dude he just wanted
the uranium
to make some nanowire clothing
to keep him warm
BingoBoingo: One of
the last orders
to hit
the #bitcoin-otc
ticker
BingoBoingo: <gribble> #21874 || darsie || BUY 1.0 1 kg uranium @ 100 EUR || e.g. counterweight, projectile, radiation shield. I'm not sure if
that's a reasonable price since an aircraft company had
trouble finding a dump where
they could get rid of some counterweights. I'm open for other amounts or some
thorium metal/compounds, highly radioactive stuff like mushrooms from Chernobyl and a ~1 kg piece of
tungsten at/near
theoretical density. <<
BingoBoingo: Lemme pull up and order from
the order feed real quick...
assbot: Logged on 08-01-2015 17:32:25; mircea_popescu: but, fair warning
to
the ones still left inside
the beast : nano, prior
to his vacation, was a law abiding economy
teacher, a bright kid and a very loyal and honorable fellow all around.
BingoBoingo: <asciilifeform> aha, he will be 'on vacation' until shows up rolled in a cage
through wash.,d.c streets. << I believe it is
the "Southern District of Manhattan" nao
ben_vulpes: not in portland,
TomServo. here,
they
tax you for runoff.
assbot: postdocs - Whether
to
tell his prospective employer
that a new male post doc opposes affirmative action for women in academia? - Academia Stack Exchange ... (
http://bit.ly/1DqvrZA )
mike_c: betting early on bitbets makes sense and betting late makes sense. you are cutting out 50% of
the
time it makes good sense
to bet.
mike_c: is
this new "1 week buffer from event" copy now standard practice?