log☇︎
476500+ entries in 0.262s
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: i meant, for the prediction of increase
trinque: it's worth noting that anyone making declarations that come true is using his *power* to make them so
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: what is the basis for this prediction ?
pete_dushenski: let's say hashrate increases 3-fold in next 12 months and we see that 200 mn gh/s is...
trinque: as people would like their declarations alone to move reality
trinque: people would like it to be so
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: and what other player will catch up with this, do you suppose, and how ? ☟︎
asciilifeform: trinque: i said precisely this, in '13
trinque: the idea that the whole USG is the decrepit post office is laughable
trinque: and they start using their SSL chewing boxes, or what have you
trinque: asciilifeform: sure "oh this is all from those newfangled crypto boxes"
trinque: well what I'm saying is they do both
asciilifeform: trinque: the elegance is that nothing is kept secret
trinque: who will claim the NSA doesn't already have a metric shitload of potential hashing power to apply to this problem?
asciilifeform: i can even see the cable becoming 'phreee'
asciilifeform: customers will quit tv?
asciilifeform: what, can't add 5W to box ?
asciilifeform: and they can do this as often as they want
asciilifeform: why half? they upgrade codecs, 'new signal is not compatible,' want cable - gotta accept (phree!!111!!) new box.
trinque: they have that plus every computer they already had at their disposal
pete_dushenski: so by this time in 2016 the usg has 10 mn gh/s at its disposal.
asciilifeform: (modem, multiple tv tuner boxen, etc)
pete_dushenski: ok, so half of all subscribers in first year, one box per. aggressive but let's try it out.
asciilifeform: and that's -subscribers-
asciilifeform: according to 'bloomberg', 22 mil. as of feb '15
pete_dushenski: does that change the 10 mn figure ?
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: let's imagine that the only participating firm is comcast
pete_dushenski: and that they manage to deploy 10 mn units within 12 months from today.
pete_dushenski: let's say that these things are hashing at even 1 gh/s
pete_dushenski: asciilifeform: so let's do the math.
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: usg is correctly leveraging its only strengths - subterfuge, on captive audiences, backed by threat of brute force
cazalla: channel ban list is there for all to see anyway so why ask me
asciilifeform: as far as i can tell, he isn't even in the new wot
jurov: asciilifeform yes that's what i'm asking.
asciilifeform: jurov: you could rate him and he could then speak, no ?
trinque: what's done with either, who owns it, is the meat
pete_dushenski: bitcoin, tmsr~
pete_dushenski: asciilifeform: the stupid ones. the govs intent on slitting their own throats, sure.
trinque: pete_dushenski: "bitcoin is bitcoin" has no tactical content
cazalla: now as much as i love the ol' Vexual, i admit he does like to chat a lot and often makes no sense but by banning him, we now get to enjoy it on a more personal level via pm :P
asciilifeform: jurov: he's in your l1 and still can't talk ?
jurov: *what if I do tolerate?
jurov: what if it do tolerate?
cazalla: jurov, because we don't tolerate drunken behaviour around these parts!
pete_dushenski: trinque: depends entirely who it is making the declarative statements.
assbot: Emperor Norton - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ... ( http://bit.ly/1IBZT4p )
assbot: Logged on 13-05-2015 20:58:30; jurov: then maybe he prefers interviewing folks individually
trinque: pete_dushenski: the declaration of a thing is not what makes it so
pete_dushenski: it's equally likely that 'conventional miners' will begin to curry favour with local governments
asciilifeform: after this, the natural thing to do from hitler's point of view is - to go after conventional miners
pete_dushenski: asciilifeform: sure, but this is hardly the way to go about it. even if it's all they've got left.
pete_dushenski: asciilifeform: mattering to hashrate, mattering to bitcoin.
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: depends on what you think of as 'matters'
pete_dushenski: these things will hash like 500 mh/s
asciilifeform: the added cost, of the hardware, is negligible
pete_dushenski: ok, so mebbe it doesn't burn houses down, and mebbe everyone has a half dozen of these chips wedged into their various appliances...
asciilifeform: for non-u.s. folks - if you subscribe to cable tv, you get the mandatory box. no choice about it.
asciilifeform: every other cost of the plan is externalized to captive idiots
pete_dushenski: trinque: then think it :D
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: the only actual problem they will have is fighting over the coin itself.
trinque: I'd like to think it, of course.
trinque: eh I don't know about that
pete_dushenski: "but if we have ENOUGH slingshots and they're government mandated"
pete_dushenski: by the time they roll these out and get them into any appreciable number of homes, it'll look like trying to fight the nazis by arming every american with slingshots ☟︎
asciilifeform: see the 'halfbakery' link, quite the same idea.
trinque: state-sanctioned crypto chip that happens to be able to mine
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: it'll be in his cable box, and if he doesn't like it, he will have to quit tv
trinque: and if you really need to ram it through, attach it to some "cybersecurity" bill
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: no more than today
pete_dushenski: asciilifeform: burn down from having flammables near cable boxes, toasters, etc ?
asciilifeform: it'll be in his cable box, tv, etc. whether he likes, or not
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: the beauty is that no one will ask the chump if he wants to cover the costs
pete_dushenski: i doubt even 25% of mining profits will cover the electricity costs.
trinque: so you just end up with a cryptoturd chip built into the intel processors, and you can't get other processors
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: burn their houses down how? these won't be packaged as traditional miners, recall. it'll be in cable boxes, etc. that folks get 1 or 2 of
pete_dushenski: because a few 'early adopters' will jump on board, burn their houses down, and the thing'll fizzle out
asciilifeform: it is precisely the kind of scam which has endurance.
asciilifeform: pete_dushenski: why not? classic, grade-a chumpatron. the actual costs (mains power) are 100% externalized to the chumps.
trinque: asciilifeform: I'd expect some broken off appendage of the NSA to accumulate a sizable stash of coin even if the rest of the USG falls apart
pete_dushenski: it's like the smartwatch idea.
assbot: Logged on 13-05-2015 21:47:09; asciilifeform: it'll work, too
asciilifeform: incidentally, this is an ancient idea: http://www.halfbakery.com/idea/broadcast_20cryptanalysis
danielpbarron: i posted a comment to that freedom to tinker thing a couple days ago; it didn't get approved
asciilifeform: but took everything else and ran with it
asciilifeform: trinque: they read the 2013 #b-a log and accepted mircea_popescu's assertion that they will have problems keeping mining secret
trinque: so being a part of the NSA botnet goes from top secret to productized
asciilifeform: it'll work, too ☟︎
asciilifeform: essentially, they wanted to pocket 100% of the miner output while throwing occasional bones to the idiot chumpers
asciilifeform: 'In the example, one user is able to use his BTC to skip 15 minutes of commercials on online video service Hulu.' << this is just too many lulz
trinque: lol, the houses around here are half a million or more
jurov: ah, i forget in murica it's impossible to have own roof in few years
asciilifeform: 'By the time its chips were to be embedded into Internet of Things (IoT) devices, 21 projected its cost to produce 1 BTC could be as low as $7.45.' << somebody does not grasp difficulty factor ? ☟︎
asciilifeform: jurov: that's for folks with choices. at the time i would've taken a job filleting the last remaining pandas with knives made from baby bones
asciilifeform: 'According to the overview, the BitSplit chip's key innovation was intended to be a hardcoded bitcoin wallet address that would give the user 25% of mining proceeds, with the remaining 75% going to 21. Each device would be built with target applications in mind that would then allow consumers to, in theory, spend any bitcoin earned for online content or digital services.'
jurov: they would have hard time to rationalize the money if it was not connected to some do-gooding, moving and shaking
asciilifeform: 'Also included in the overview is an email exchange allegedly taking place between Comcast West Coast strategic development managing director Francisco Varela and 21 CEO Matt Pauker in which the cable giant exec evaluates how its customers could benefit from participating in 21’s bitcoin mining operations.' << aha, cable boxes.
asciilifeform: re: '21' etc >> 'The cornerstone of the strategy as presented would have been the release of consumer products that would turn power from wall sockets into bitcoin through the widespread dissemination of bitcoin mining chips.' << -somebody- clearly reads the 2013 #b-a logs. ☟︎☟︎
asciilifeform once starved long enough that he applied to work at old classic nsa
asciilifeform: jurov: and money (yes, the rotten greenback fiat kind) works wonders.
jurov: well, it's more common than you think. had i myself not been here, i'd be easily swayed for an "opportunity to change things"