log☇︎
12500+ entries in 0.946s
assbot: BitBet - Brazil will win FIFA World Cup 2014 :: 0.49 B (26%) on Yes, 1.41 B (74%) on No | closing in 1 day 6 hours | weight: 486 (100`000 to 1)
mircea_popescu: in exchange for which they don't mind -50% EV
assbot: BitBet - Spurs to win 2014 NBA Finals :: 0.8 B (41%) on Yes, 1.13 B (59%) on No | closed 1 week 17 hours ago
assbot: BitBet - An Eastern Conference team will win the NBA Finals :: 0.97 B (43%) on Yes, 1.28 B (57%) on No | closed 1 week 5 days ago
assbot: BitBet - Joel Embiid to be #1 NBA Draft Pick :: 0.22 B (71%) on Yes, 0.09 B (29%) on No | closing in 1 week 5 days | weight: 90`156 (100`000 to 75`000)
assbot: BitBet - OKC Thunder to top NBA regular season rankings :: 0.03 B (30%) on Yes, 0.07 B (70%) on No | closed 2 months 1 day ago
assbot: BitBet - A golfer from USA will win the 2014 Masters :: 0.06 B (47%) on Yes, 0.07 B (53%) on No | closed 2 months 2 days ago
assbot: BitBet - Nadal to win French Open :: 0.13 B (59%) on Yes, 0.09 B (41%) on No | closed 1 week 1 day ago
assbot: BitBet - Dee Gordon, Most Stolen Bases 2014 :: 0.07 B (70%) on Yes, 0.03 B (30%) on No | closing in 3 months 4 days | weight: 92`205 (100`000 to 1)
assbot: BitBet - Billy Hamilton Rookie of the Year :: 0.08 B (45%) on Yes, 0.09 B (55%) on No | closing in 4 months 3 weeks | weight: 96`230 (100`000 to 1)
assbot: BitBet - Yankees to get most all-star selections :: 0.03 B (25%) on Yes, 0.09 B (75%) on No | closing in 3 weeks 5 days | weight: 94`494 (100`000 to 1)
mircea_popescu: anyway, in 1994 a good affiliate could send you even 100k clicks which'd convert upwards of 10%
[]bot: Bet created: "Difficulty change to block 308448 13% or more" http://bitbet.us/bet/907/
assbot: BitBet - Difficulty over 21Bn by Summer's end 2014 :: 0.6 B (55%) on Yes, 0.48 B (45%) on No | closing in 2 months 1 week| weight: 90`314 (100`000 to 3)
mircea_popescu: fluffypony they finally figured out that 60% return rate isn't really such a good number ?
fluffypony: 19% APR return for lenders
mircea_popescu: "Ideally, I prefer to have the entire 1,132 BTC, sans the 400 BTC bounty amount, paid in full to me, but knowing that sometimes arbitration takes place, I'm willing to settle for a minimal amount, with anybody acting as liaison to broker their reward up to 100% of what I may finally recognize. The minimum I'm welling to settle for is $50K USD via BTC or fiat to compensate for my initial investment and the mega hours I
mircea_popescu: decimation: waiting around and doing nothing while you hope a magic "process" or "committee" or "standarization" will do your job constitutes at least 50% of western officeworker employment << the best part is that this used to actually work, a century or so ago.
decimation: waiting around and doing nothing while you hope a magic "process" or "committee" or "standarization" will do your job constitutes at least 50% of western officeworker employment
BingoBoingo: %book
mircea_popescu: in spite of all the pretense as to "exchanges" and tips and whatnot, it'd seem 99%+ of all doges are actually held by the admin group
mircea_popescu: <kakobrekla> and dropping << nah was -80% a coupla days ago
atcbot: [ATC Diff] Current Diff: 715369.85 Est. Next Diff: 502280.32 in 1204 blocks (#36288) Est. % Change: -29.79
BingoBoingo: %diff
BingoBoingo: %ticker
TheNewDeal: 1K4Fs has virtually 60% of the no
assbot: BitBet - May I suggest 9B difficulty? :: 6.44 B (8%) on Yes, 72.03 B (92%) on No | closed 1 month 2 weeks ago
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin difficulty over 5.6B before April :: 9.83 B (5%) on Yes, 180.55 B (95%) on No | closed 2 months 3 weeks ago
jurov: how many % actm has?
mircea_popescu: about the same 80%
mircea_popescu: the only reason "renewables" seem economical atm is because govt picks up 80% of the tab.
[]bot: Bet created: "FIFA World Cup 2014: penalty kick success rate over 60%" http://bitbet.us/bet/902/
BingoBoingo: %book
TheNewDeal: April 29 - May 12 the difficulty increased 10.66 %. Blocks came through on average 542 seconds. To get 3 changes, we need to find blocks at an average of 554 seconds
dignork: benkay: http://www.bluecoat.com/company-blog/2013-05-09/what%E2%80%99s-your-ssl-traffic-trying-hide // i've seen similar hardware deployed by companies to monitor their employees traffic. Single point of failure. Awesome point to hack.
benkay: http://www.bluecoat.com/company-blog/2013-05-09/what%E2%80%99s-your-ssl-traffic-trying-hide // waaaaaaaaaaaaat is this
TheNewDeal: would be interested to see what % of bitbet is made into private bets
TheNewDeal: updating the diff change estimate to 6.8%
pankkake: why not remove the "fsdfdf" bets? they make up 80% of the page
assbot: BitBet - S.MG profitable in 2014 :: 0.06 B (60%) on Yes, 0.04 B (40%) on No | closing in 4 months 4 weeks | weight: 99`823 (100`000 to 1)
assbot: BitBet - S.MG profitable in 2014 :: 0.06 B (60%) on Yes, 0.04 B (40%) on No | closing in 4 months 4 weeks | weight: 99`875 (100`000 to 1)
BingoBoingo: %ticker
asciilifeform: http://usaspending.gov/search?form_fields=%7B%22search_term%22%3A%22SYMBOLICS+TECHNOLOGY+INCORPORATED%22%2C%22recipient_duns%22%3A%5B%22966978090%22%5D%7D&sort_by=dollars&per_page=25
asciilifeform: i.e. 100% of users are paying out of someone else's pocket
BingoBoingo: Nah, hanging, because blocking itself in a controlled way. One core is at 100% the other lazing like usual.
mircea_popescu: about 4% of the monetary mass in circulation sold out, bitcoin dropped from 5.3 to 4.5, and people were in agreeemnt that it's prolly the end
mike_c: aapl is under $100 now! totally a good reason for the stock to shoot up 20%!
mircea_popescu: http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3APTR&fstype=ii&ei=c4mXU4ipKcea6AGPz4DgCQ <<
jurov: http://worldtracker.org/media/library/English%20Literature/M/Mccarthy,%20Wil/Wil%20McCarthy%20-%20The%20Technetium%20Rush.pdf
BingoBoingo: %book
assbot: Current MPIF account balance on Just-Dice: 170.62354623 BTC; +0.05388901 BTC (+0.0316%) since last check 3h 59m 57s ago.
mircea_popescu: Low Management Fee 0.6%
mircea_popescu: wow almost a full % huh
assbot: Current MPIF account balance on Just-Dice: 170.56965722 BTC; +0.09045396 BTC (+0.0531%) since last check 22h 25m 29s ago.
asciilifeform: the only reason no one would even try this crap is the point mentioned earlier (100% of present-day use is industrial, mostly as GaAs semiconductor, fluctuating demand)
davout: it just has a 0,3% floor
fluffypony: davout: apparently even their Enterprise packages for > $100k daily are flat fee and not %
davout: gambling & porn is usually > 6% i hear
thestringpuller: I guess I'm just bitter since back in the day I could buy BTC pretty much at market price with 0.5% in fees.
pankkake: I don't know many who have only 1% for CC
davout: "1% which is pretty much what most niggas pay for CC processing" <<< it really depends
fluffypony: thestringpuller: Bitpay is 1% on starter, else $30/month no fees
thestringpuller: Coinbase wants 1% which is pretty much what most niggas pay for CC processing
assbot: BitBet - Simona Halep to win Roland Garros :: 1.03 B (14%) on Yes, 6.22 B (86%) on No | closed 2 weeks 1 day ago
assbot: BitBet - ATC to reach block 50000 on time :: 2.25 B (24%) on Yes, 7.05 B (76%) on No | closing in 1 month 2 weeks | weight: 51`392 (100`000 to 1)
TheNewDeal: the last time there was a 6% change was ?
TheNewDeal: 6% over three changes is mincemeat
TheNewDeal: the network has to average around 6% over 3 diff changes
TheNewDeal: my return would be 16.5% on yes, -77% no
TheNewDeal: which would be drastically reduced from the 370%+ you have now
TheNewDeal: return of 84% for you
BingoBoingo: As an example of fresh bet of .33 BTC on No returns the line [ 52] No 30000 0.33000000 1.93420100 1.60420100 covering 32.8% of your 5.9 BTC stake.
TheNewDeal: for me I would be winning 10% on my investment of 5.9 BTC on YES, or returning 27% of that investment on no
TheNewDeal: if I purchased your whole position, I would make 3.78% on yes, or lose 28.8 percent
assbot: BitBet - Bitcoin network difficulty > 14Bn on Bastille day :: 112.84 B (85%) on Yes, 19.55 B (15%) on No | closing in 3 days 20 hours | weight: 2`243 (100`000 to 1)
TheNewDeal: gribble was guessing like 0% when I was guessing around 5
TheNewDeal: Yesterday was 4.8, 6/7 was 6.9%
TheNewDeal: updating TheNewDeal's prediction to 6.3%
assbot: BitBet - Simona Halep to win Roland Garros :: 1.03 B (14%) on Yes, 6.22 B (86%) on No | closed 2 weeks 1 day ago
Namworld: They don't, but assuming a large amount of varied goods, probably rarely more difference than 10%-15% for the same stuff.
gribble: The camel has two humps (working title) - tof: <http://wiki.t-o-f.info/uploads/EDM4600/The%20camel%20has%20two%20humps.pdf>; The camel has two humps (working title) - University of Kent: <https://www.cs.kent.ac.uk/dept_info/seminars/2005_06/paper1.pdf>; Alan Kay on 'The Camel has Two Humps' - secretGeek: <http://secretgeek.net/camel_kay.asp>
mthreat: http://aws.amazon.com/glacier/ claims "average annual durability of 99.999999999%"
BingoBoingo: %book
benkay: pankkake: it pops a modal. maybe one of the designers knows how to make it happen without js, but that's like 0.001% of potential clients.
assbot: Current MPIF account balance on Just-Dice: 170.47920326 BTC; -0.03277293 BTC (-0.0192%) since last check 8h 41m 3s ago.
mircea_popescu: %d
fluffypony: or even worse - they could be 100% genuine and yet still be involved in completely baseless court action that someone has taken against them (pissed off ex-girlfriend or ex-employee or ex-business-partner)
BingoBoingo: %ticker
assbot: Current MPIF account balance on Just-Dice: 170.51197619 BTC; +0.01696697 BTC (+0.0100%) since last check 7h 8m 41s ago.
TheNewDeal: pg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.beautyriot.com%252Fcelebrities%252Fclaire-danes%252Fphoto-claire-danes-straight-blonde-romantic-updo-hairstyle-pid27671%3B400%3B544
TheNewDeal: this one looks a little iffy https://www.google.com/search?q=claire+danes&safe=off&es_sm=122&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=fzuVU8f4MNizyAT6i4HIAw&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAQ&biw=1366&bih=643#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=eojvOvIhxj6grM%253A%3BF43YDPK0VqpqnM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fimages.beautyriot.com%252Fphotos%252Fclaire-danes-straight-blonde-romantic-updo-hairstyle.j
TheNewDeal: totally just updated my prediction to 4.8%
benkay: wowee. 4.8% you say?
TheNewDeal: I'm updating TheNewDeals estimate to 4.8% increase
mircea_popescu: which brings us to the problem : because bitcoin is fixed, a 95% investment situation will be unavoidable statistically. as the value of all paper will much exceed the value of cash btc available, willy-nilly.
mike_c: ok.. perhaps this will bring our lines of thought closer: in my theoretical model, someone with as much bitcoin as you should absolutely not be 95% invested.
mircea_popescu: which 10% could buy about one trillion pizzerias.
mircea_popescu: or, there's benkay's ocean mining conglomerate, which will gain 10% over the same decade
mike_c: why would i expend effort on something that may significantly increase 1% of my base instead of something that will only moderately increase 20% of my base? it would be unprofitable.
mike_c: it is not profitalbe to spend my time making 50% on 2m instead of 2% on 100b.