furuknap: Someone asked earlier what BASIC maining uses for mining. List is at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130982.0, mostly consisting of older GPUs. They have two Avalons (one #2, one #3) on order.

furuknap: I was out so only saw through remote access so couldn't respond then...

furuknap: 1 day EMA 10/21 on BTC price just crossed again. First time cross since May 3 and first time positive since April 20. Good times ahead.

furuknap: Last time that happened, price went from 126 to 165 in four days.

furuknap: Trending upwards, hence the cross.

furuknap: You're quite welcome.

furuknap: I've decided that rather than publish my numbers on ASICMiner, I'm going to write a guide on how to evaluate mining companies and their shares. This seems more fair because it will not speak directly to AM (which could be argued is an attempt at price manipulation) while at the same time applies to any mining operation, past, present, or future.

furuknap: I'll explain a slightly simplified method of the one I'm using, because it is easier to understand and doesn't require too much speculation.

furuknap: I care.

furuknap: This is a personal thing, but to me, my integrity is extremely important to me. Even the suggestion from someone that I may be 'talking AM down (or up)' is a taint on my perception of that integrity, which is why I've been quiet in the forums the past few days.

furuknap: No, I don't.

furuknap: I don't care about their perception, I care about my perception. If I come about as someone that even in the remotest of possibilities may say something for any other purpose than neutral information, I've failed and thus need to reevaluate my approach.

furuknap: Please explain.

furuknap: That's not what I was saying, but hey, you interpret it the way that makes you comfortable.

furuknap: mp, I am the asshole, just ask anyone in the SharePoint community :-)

furuknap: truffles, I care for myself and myself only. I am a Thelemite, so it is in my nature. I care not for what others think of me, not even what my immediate family thinks of me, much less some random strangers on the interwebs.

furuknap: What is unlikely? That I'm a Thelemite?

furuknap: However, I care about my pride, and I want to be proud of what I do because it is the best I can do. If I do not accomplish that, I have not done my best, which is a strike on my abilities. It's a long, long conversation, though, and whether someone understands that is irrelevant, and I have no need to explain.

furuknap: Because you asked.

furuknap: That is your opinion and like I said, does not affect mine. If you don't understand, I have no problems with that.

furuknap: Your desires are also not very interesting to me. You may want all you like.

furuknap: I'm talking to you because my statements about AM was a matter of discussion and part of that discussion was the analysis I had made that showed AM had no chance in hell to make back investments at these levels. I said I would publish those numbers but decided as a matter of fairness to instead publish a simplified method for determining it yourself.

furuknap: [17:14] <truffles> im viewing it as, u think ur info will be so factual that none will think otherwise > I still do not care what others think. I care about what I think.

furuknap: I know there are many :-)

furuknap: You are quite right. As was I :-)

furuknap: truffles, if my information is biased, I will make it as clear as I possibly can.

furuknap: Some information must be biased.

furuknap: ...or will be perceived as such. Declaration of interests make the reader aware of any bias and can evaluate the information in that light.

furuknap: In some cases, that declaration is implied. 'Everyone' that reads my SharePoint stuff know most of my opinions, and for those that don't, I have made them clear no numerous and public occasions. I don't need to say in every article that "I do not approve of SharePoint Server, I love SharePoint Foundation, I hate certain members of the SharePoint dev team in Redmond, I like certain members of the community" and so on.

furuknap: You're allowed to do whatever you will, but hating seems somewhat counter productive and thus wouldn't make you much of a Thelemite.

furuknap: They do. They talk about me all the time. At times, they have had daily meeting about me.

furuknap: They apparently do :-) I don't.

furuknap: That's a good start.

furuknap: If you will, you can. The entire belief system on Thelemites is "Do what tough wilt". Nothing more, nothing less.

furuknap: * Thou

furuknap: Indeed :-)

furuknap: This isn't a philosophical channel, but if you want to learn, read up on it. It's a pretty fascinating philosphy.

furuknap: There's a difference between "whatever the fuck you please" and "what you will".

furuknap: That's also a good start :-)

furuknap: truffles, by what you probably mean by "believe in a God", no I don't.

furuknap: Morality is relative and thus subjective. What works for you works for you. If you care not for what others think, that is all that matters.

furuknap: Ah, my bad, misread it.

furuknap: Nobody wants to die, really. Whether you allow the fear of dying control or affect your actions is more relevant.

furuknap: truffles, you're catching on! I do care about me, but you're thinking correctly about the issue.

furuknap: TAT, you want to die or you allow the fear of it to control your actions`?

furuknap: To some extent, that is what keeps humans alive, yes, but fear that prevents you from reaching your goals is bad.

furuknap: Paulo Choelly is a Thelemite :-)

furuknap: Choello

furuknap: Damn1

furuknap: Can't even hit the keys...

furuknap: truffles, like I said, this isn't really a philosophy forum. Feel free to PM me, though, unless of course everyone is fine with the conversation.

furuknap: Two monitors, two hands, two eyes, two halves of a brain... I was built for dual-tasking :-)

furuknap: In that case, feel free to ask your questions. I'll answer as best I can.

furuknap: Mostly, you're not really efficient if you multi-task. Task switching, however, can be quite efficient.

furuknap: Magic? I don't do magic. Magick, on the other hand, I do all the time. So do you.

furuknap: Well, consider what most people think of when they think "Magic". It's Harry Potter, right? Some desired outcome, some formula or incantation, and poof, that desired outcome happens (or fizzles).

furuknap: In Magick, it is actually the same thing. You have a desired goal and you perform some ritual to achieve that goal. If the ritual is done correctly and is the correct ritual, your achieve your goal.

furuknap: "The Secret" as far as I've understood, is mostly based on thelemic principles, yes. It's a bastardization as far as my peers have determined it, but I have not read it so I don't know.

furuknap: The "Magick" that most people think about involves mysterious and secret rituals with sacrificing goats and whatnot. However, in reality, Magick is much simpler. You wake up and your breath smells like wet dog. Your desired goal is to have a nice breath. Your ritual is to go to the bathroom, but some potion on a brush and rub on your teeth. If you do, your breath smells nice.

furuknap: That's about as far as you need to go to understand "Magick". There is, of course, far more to it that that, but it doesn't involve anything supernatural or anything like that.

furuknap: Or explaining something special in an easy to understand way :-)

furuknap: TAT: Yes, exactly. Again, somewhat simplified, but really, that's what's happening.

furuknap: Magick is far more than daily routine. It is about shaping yourself, your mind, and the environment around you to create a reality that matches what you will.

furuknap: TAT: Yes, but those are just supersticious morons.

furuknap: If that is within the realm of possibility and you know the "spells" to make it happen, certainly.

furuknap: :-)

furuknap: truffles: Well, everything you perceive and thus can think creates such a bubble. The difference is whether you are aware of that bubble and whether you have the ability to manipulate it.

furuknap: Hehe :-)

furuknap: The philosophy is called Thelema. Thelemite is the description of an adherent to that philosophy.

furuknap: To the extent of my abilities, it will be. It's not as much a report as a description of the method used to come to the analysis I mentioned previously.

furuknap: That way, you can work the numbers for any mining asset, not just AM.

furuknap: I'm not trying to do so, only find a way to evaluate what the fundamental value of a mining asset is.

furuknap: Speculation may not be rational. If my AM analysis is correct, it is not now, for example.

furuknap: I'm not trying to predict price, only value.

furuknap: Nope. I care for price only to the extent it affects cost of halving effect.

furuknap: I'm not trying to do so.

furuknap: No, I'm trying to say that the amount of coin a mining operation yields will need to be taken into account now, knowing that the value of a share is likely to drop of revenue from dividends drop.

furuknap: Bubbles are prices, not value.

furuknap: No, something costs what someone will pay for it.

furuknap: Repeating it doesn't make it true.

furuknap: Let's make a simple example. You can give me 10 coins now in escrow, and every year I will give you 1 coin in interest, thus yielding 10% per year. However, after 4 years, your initial 10 coins will be reduced to 5 coins. Thus, the yield is not 10%, it is negative 2.5% because over four years, you're left with 9 coins.

furuknap: True, but there must be that famous idiot that will pay you more than what your share is worth.

furuknap: TAT: Exactly, and that effect is higher than most realize. In fact, for AM, it's roughly 0.005 per week.

furuknap: But the stable income is not as high as people think it is. friedcat has said he expects 10% on average. That correlates to around 0.006 per week. From that, you need to deduct the halving effect, which is 0.005, yielding 0.001 in real ROI.

furuknap: The higher the price, the higer the halving effect.

furuknap: Or rather, there are enough people that don't take the halving effect into account to ignore it :-)

furuknap: Seeling hardware is an additional income yes, but competition will rise quicker there.

furuknap: I assume BFL or someone will ship in the next three years, yes.

furuknap: The future speculation is not very relevant, though. When companies get this big in terms of network percentage, it is much easier to speculate whether they will retain that.

furuknap: Chaang, it depends on how you evaluate risk. In my striclty personal opinion, I would evaluate a price between 1.3 and 1.5 to support my risk profile with a reasonable yield and expecting a network hash rate between 10 and 15% on overage over five years.

furuknap: Chaang, at 2.0, the ROI is roughly 2% per year, taking the halving effect info account.

furuknap: TAT: Very simple, there's no way I can get more reward from the dividends than I can from selling the shares.

furuknap: Yes, and what is the guess for 2017?

furuknap: I do.

furuknap: Yeah, I saw that. Don't think it's that much of an effect, though.

furuknap: Bitfury may be a very strong outsider. If they get their shit together for June, they're already one generation ahead of AM and can produce hashes much faster. Then, AM must catch up, and we don't know where in the process they are.

furuknap: They will have to be, and I really think they will be, but the picture isn't as one-sided as everyone thinks. Right now, we're cheering that AM wins the race every week, but nobody seems to notice there is only one horse.

furuknap: And thus you place your bets based on that. Nothing wrong with that.

furuknap: I just don't see the value that everyone else wants to pay.

furuknap: I probably would hold at 1.5 and possibly higher too if I knew more about the future plans, progress in 2nd gen chips, and if they were to hold back more of the dividends to secure themselves against future opporyunity loss.

furuknap: fiat: In bursts, maybe, but 0.036 represents mining 50% of the network, so probably not long-term or on average.

furuknap: True, but they announced them two weeks ago. If they get the revenue paid out as dividends in two weeks, then it takes a month to sell ฿20K, or ฿5K per week, which isn't enough to sustain 0.036 per week.

furuknap: Chaang, friedcat did say that if they needed funding, they would do so by selling off the BF part of the shares rather than issue new ones.

furuknap: ...as far as we know :-)

furuknap: I've tried to understand that, but I haven't found anything. It's mostly "we retain some money" but nothing solid about expenses, running or expected.

furuknap: That's why one of the things I asked friedcat to start publishing is financial reports. Once a quarter is fine, more frequent isn't really necessary.

furuknap: Investors who want to evaluate a share's value do.

furuknap: In that case, I'd do more research, fiat :-)

furuknap: ;;ticker

furuknap: Whoops. CRASH, CRASH, SELL, SELL!

furuknap: In scale, it seems that 100TH is the only thing currently lined up to match AM. I threw a few coins there to see what stuck. Either it goes to zero or it works. As far as I know, neither Avalon, BFL, or the swedes have anything public.

furuknap: Well, traditionally, selling shovels is more profitable than mining.

furuknap: Geez, and that was the extent of your research?

furuknap: ;;ticker

furuknap: And we're back.

furuknap: Is what going down?

furuknap: It was 119.5.

furuknap: It was just that I poked a bit of fun at the sell-off that lead to drop from 122ish to 119ish.

furuknap: I have more than I started with, and beyond that it's none of your business :-P

furuknap: TAT, what do you mean, you don't ahve a chatbot to represent yourself while you sleep?

furuknap: OK, guys, I'm back. Overslept this morning. How are everyone doing?

furuknap: <Chaaang-Noi> friedcat does, you bought a pt, not real shares *in AM* (FTFY)

furuknap: http://community.bitfinex.com/content.php/29-Litecoins <- Bitfinex to offer Litecoins for USD.