mircea_popescu: ;;ticker

mircea_popescu: heh, in the 100 to 130 corridor huh ?

mircea_popescu: nice.

mircea_popescu: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174600.0;all

mircea_popescu: bitcoin-24 apparently cocked up ?

mircea_popescu: heh.

mircea_popescu: i see what you mean.

mircea_popescu: of course... i see mtgox as quite as risky myself

mircea_popescu: but then again i guess people have this too big to fail mentality going.

mircea_popescu: well take bitcoin-central.

mircea_popescu: they've done about the same thing, been in business for about the same interval etc.

mircea_popescu: on the other hand people like bitfloor indeed don't opr at least didn't protect the walletr worth a shiot.

mircea_popescu: show

mircea_popescu: well in as much as there's rebound oscialltions after yeah

mircea_popescu: but to my eye the rise and the fall are pretty distinct

mircea_popescu: i mean june had a pronounced bear trap on the way up

mircea_popescu: april did not.

mircea_popescu: april collapse was very deep and rebound sharply

mircea_popescu: early on

mircea_popescu: june did no such thing

mircea_popescu: how did you obtain red line ?

mircea_popescu: is it by some math or just hand drawn ?

mircea_popescu: a

mircea_popescu: that's dangerous as it may contain a lot of bias

mircea_popescu: sorta "see what you expect to see" thing

mircea_popescu: later

mircea_popescu: lolk

mircea_popescu: trust, but verify.

mircea_popescu: The French government announced that starting this week, ketchup will no longer be allowed in any school or university cafeteria

mircea_popescu: what's north korea got ?

mircea_popescu: lol free coins for what

mircea_popescu: http://trilema.com/2013/discovering-the-secret-villanies-of-alluring-strumpets/

mircea_popescu: for the classically-minded.

mircea_popescu: :)

mircea_popescu: seems pretty normal to me.

mircea_popescu: i am considering an algo adjustement. we're doing a bunch of modelling and measuring.

mircea_popescu: in no case will this be before the end of the month however.

mircea_popescu: can't make changes midmonth, especially as they'd be towards a reduction of premiums

mircea_popescu: as it'd be unfair to bondholders (whether any harm comes to them from it or not)

mircea_popescu: this on top of the usual consideration of just letting things be.

mircea_popescu: haven;'t had muich trade since the huge swings, no.

mircea_popescu: notably pretty much noboduy is goiong in the midmarket either,

mircea_popescu: in spite of the huge spreads.

mircea_popescu: yeah.

mircea_popescu: i9t's been days tho.

mircea_popescu: anyway, i think the financial tier is well spooked by all the insanity propagated at the exchange tier.

mircea_popescu: just all the wash trading going on strictly for mtgox's desire to keep on lieing about its market share should be enough of a problem

mircea_popescu: but there's tons of other issues. so i think pretty m,uch everyotne's models are off the charts,

mircea_popescu: they just have the advantage of not printing this as mpoe bot does.

mircea_popescu: well, "advantage"

mircea_popescu: an upgrade to a more ellaborate model (such as but not necessarily limited to or equal with rbh) has been in the plan since 2011.

mircea_popescu: however, we don't have the market to support it yet is my estimation.

mircea_popescu: certainly the idea is to keep financial instruments as sophisticated as can be borne.

mircea_popescu: certainly more brokers wouldn't hurt.

mircea_popescu: truth of the matter is there;'s plenty of room to get mpex stuff packaged as a sellable vehicvle. both equities and derivatives (diff, fiat, etc)

mircea_popescu: this could be done via hedge funds or via other vehicles, but yeah

mircea_popescu: the thing is, most of this is yet immature. take the idiff futures as a great example. it will be a great instrument down the road buyt for now the underlying is just too nonsensical.

mircea_popescu: (and the people who really need the instrument, ie miners, are much too financially clueless)

mircea_popescu: yes, i was about to say : a simple way to test rbh specifically is to just open a brokerage offering rbh-based leverage to customers.

mircea_popescu: this is much better than exchange-level implementation because it's so much easier to limit things. throw 1k btc at this project see how long it takes you to lose it all.

mircea_popescu: fold orderly, you've contributed no market instability and in fact an orderly folding is better for one's reputation than continued success.

mircea_popescu: more generally the limited capital and orderly folding is a very important concept that i've been discussing with other people looking to make financial instruments in thsi chan

mircea_popescu: it's crucial for further development i think.

mircea_popescu: there's a reason llc companies irl list their capital.

mircea_popescu: currently everyone is play-pretending this "unlimited theoretical liability" angle. it's just not workable in any practical way.

mircea_popescu: it's a fiction, and financial fiction never happy ends

mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves that may work nicel.y

mircea_popescu: you mean hash futures specifically ?

mircea_popescu: ah. yeah, i've been talking to people. i will list futures, but i will only list physically settled.

mircea_popescu: so there must be someone with the ability to make deliveries.

mircea_popescu: nah, monthly settled by actual delivery.

mircea_popescu: cash settled is meaningless bullshit practically indistinguishable from a scam.

mircea_popescu: whoever runs the future will have to yes

mircea_popescu: so it's pretty much limited to the exchanges. few actuallty have the sense to know wtf this all is so...

mircea_popescu: me ? what business of mine is it ?

mircea_popescu: pgp the idea is for someone who has the ability to make fiat settlements to run the future.

mircea_popescu: this would be an exchange for many practical reasons

mircea_popescu: also because they'd have to marketmake it

mircea_popescu: which they'd be in the best position to do.

mircea_popescu: it really is a perfectly valid and probably profityable niche.

mircea_popescu: but then again, i participate in 20+ discussions a day, all end with "yes, this is yet another niche, just need the people with a clue to do it"

mircea_popescu: if you are already running an exchange you'd better have the paperwork in order already, in which case...

mircea_popescu: no extra burden

mircea_popescu: anywhere you have a banking license as first choice.

mircea_popescu: i really think the best way to go is partner with licensed institutions rather than try and do bermudadollars or w/e

mircea_popescu: there's what, 150 countries in this world. each has at least five banks.

mircea_popescu: you tell me out of 10k banks there's not a single one you can partner with ? that seems improbable.

mircea_popescu: might work.

mircea_popescu: isn't panama one of the select few countries of which the us kidnapped the head of state ?

mircea_popescu: the question is more if the govt is capable of defending new business.

mircea_popescu: what's the problem with slovenia ?

mircea_popescu: just that it's insolvent ?

mircea_popescu: but it's neither here nor there.

mircea_popescu: so it's insolvent. what problem of yours is that ? you bring fiat in.

mircea_popescu: o

mircea_popescu: pastebin omg./

mircea_popescu: heh.

mircea_popescu: what's to trade ? they who wanted btc have them, they who wanted dollars have them.

mircea_popescu: logically the only reason they'd say anything about it is if they bought high and it counts as a capital loss.

mircea_popescu: taub the fact department is pretty thin

mircea_popescu: savetheinternet mpex does about 80% of bitcoin denominated financials trade.

mircea_popescu: pgp mining at the very least has the impact that when btc goes under mining cost miners move from selling to buying.

mircea_popescu: this switch would by far dominate any functioning market.

mircea_popescu: is btc market functional ? anyone's guess.

mircea_popescu: http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/src/136588457332.jpg

mircea_popescu: lol

mircea_popescu: great place to be.

mircea_popescu: it's only nasty if you're not doing it.

mircea_popescu: here, just for error4733, a gif of my workplace http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/src/13606663711.gif

mircea_popescu: lol

mircea_popescu: believe it or not i actually have an article about this.

mircea_popescu: http://trilema.com/2012/statistica-matematica-cu-numere/ it's in romanian, but the numbers you can get.

mircea_popescu: ~120 mn kms of unused cunt in the world because of the delta.

mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves just as soon as i figure it out yeah.

mircea_popescu: france always cheats.

mircea_popescu: actually,

mircea_popescu: Adaugind toate astea rezulta ca pizda medie parcurge 10.8 metri per futai, in medieii. Cum un an are 12 luni rezulta ca intr-o viata (de 70 de ani) pizda medie parcurge-n pula 9.07 kilometri in decursul vietii ei. Cum ejacularea medie are cam doi mililitri rezulta ca pizda medie scoate o economie de 18.5 litri la suta de kmiii ceea ce-i de altfel destul de ineficient. Pe de alta parte emisiile nu polueaza (ci sunt chia

mircea_popescu: r opusul polutiei).

mircea_popescu: which says

mircea_popescu: "adding it all up, the average cunny rides about 10.8 meters per fucking. since a year is 12 months long it comes to a lifetime's worth of riding being about 9.07kms.

mircea_popescu: since the average cum is ~2ml, the average cunt runs on 18.5 liters / 100km efficiency, which isn't so very great. on the other hand emission doesn't pollute, being the exact opposite of pollution.

mircea_popescu: there be great power in statistex

mircea_popescu: aww

mircea_popescu: lol hi

mircea_popescu: either riding her to work or work on riding her works.

mircea_popescu: o hey

mircea_popescu: !ticker m s.bbet

mircea_popescu: um

mircea_popescu: $vwap s.bbet

mircea_popescu: kakobrekla ^ bug in assbot ?!

mircea_popescu: Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine in Utah- the US’ 2nd largest silver mine and world’s largest copper mine has just suffered a massive landslide which will likely shut down production at the mine for years as upwards of 1 billion tons of dirt and ore have collapsed into the basin.

mircea_popescu: thats like 4mn oz of silver a year

mircea_popescu: http://www.flickr.com/photos/riotinto-kennecottutahcopper/8644405476/sizes/z/in/photostream/

mircea_popescu: pretty cool pix

mircea_popescu: b0n1 probably should chat davout up.

mircea_popescu: deadweasel the hype machine. i

mircea_popescu: 'm waiting foer the day when "the press" goes "everyone who listened to us got fucked for a slice of ~20 mn in the btc market"

mircea_popescu: "because that's what we do : we cost you money"

mircea_popescu: right.

mircea_popescu: because fox news knows.

mircea_popescu: this bets of bitcoin twitter account keeps following me like weekly on twitter.

mircea_popescu: fucking bs.

mircea_popescu: damientrog it's a gamble on the proposition "Everyone else will be more inept than them".

mircea_popescu: sure, normally they'd fade. still, it's been 9 months and still no actual asics.

mircea_popescu: no. avalons don't count.

mircea_popescu: it's a limited volume private run.

mircea_popescu: "asics" means, we will sell you ANY QTY as long as you pay within 60 days of ordering.

mircea_popescu: tjhat's what supply means.

mircea_popescu: if i want to buy memory chips I can buy 1mn, 100mn or 1 trn chips.

mircea_popescu: fact that some guy is making 300 units for his friends./whatever... hardly count in a market sense.

mircea_popescu: yea but still.

mircea_popescu: heh.

mircea_popescu: you've not bought anything imo. maybe lottery tickets.

mircea_popescu: a, yea. not impugning uyou, just sdayin'

mircea_popescu: from a macro perspective exactly.

mircea_popescu: @ericschmidt For every person online, there are two who are not. By the end of the decade, everyone on Earth will be connected. #NewDigitalAge

mircea_popescu: Mircea_Popescu @ericschmidt For every softie that thinks "every person counts" there's ten hardies that disagree. #NewWorldWar

mircea_popescu: curious what he says to that heh.

mircea_popescu: "made from pickled herring" ?

mircea_popescu: hello

mircea_popescu: jurov http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-WO73Dh7rY

mircea_popescu: for the inside of that joke

mircea_popescu: unkown247 this is the #bitcoin-assets chan. we're stock brokers etc here.

mircea_popescu: try #bitcoin-otc for that.

mircea_popescu: exfortuna tried bitcoincharts ?

mircea_popescu: unkown247 no. bitcoin-denominated securities such as shares, options etc.

mircea_popescu: jurov ok let's see if this exists

mircea_popescu: jurov seems it doesn't exist. pity.

mircea_popescu: lol over 100k google translate requests for trilema this month.

mircea_popescu: i hope the readers are enjoying gt's humour

mircea_popescu: not bad.

mircea_popescu: http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/src/128227433695.jpg wouldn't it kick ass if that was Bitcoin branded ?

mircea_popescu: deadweasel 100 to 130.

mircea_popescu: kinda.

mircea_popescu: taub nope.

mircea_popescu: jurov possibly because nobody on the interwebs knows any girls ?

mircea_popescu: thestringpuller specifically ?

mircea_popescu: taub i don't have the time/patience/interest.

mircea_popescu: thestringpuller i still don't ghet it.

mircea_popescu: so you put your own bets, promote them among friends or w/e

mircea_popescu: how's this different from everyone else using bitbet ?

mircea_popescu: what's not to allow ?

mircea_popescu: zeroconf it.

mircea_popescu: send a bet along with your bet.

mircea_popescu: lol

mircea_popescu: but seriously, you get a little "send a bet" option as you make a new proposition.

mircea_popescu: if you send nothing mods are meh, random shit.

mircea_popescu: if you send sometyhing you're more likely to get "a, somebody wants this, ok".

mircea_popescu: bets with nothing on have to be judged as cool enough. bets with a decent something on just have not to suck, different standard.

mircea_popescu: well thestringpuller, more generally, everything i do is to help people start their own rackets.

mircea_popescu: sometimes even against their will.

mircea_popescu: also, shoes : http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/src/131722396096.jpg

mircea_popescu: http://polimedia.us/dtng/c/thumb/133180234433s.jpg lol

mircea_popescu: i pretty much never do

mircea_popescu: ;;ticker

mircea_popescu: lol