assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.479 BTC [+]
assbot: Hell, ain't we about more fucked than a whore at closin' time, huh?
assbot: [MPEX:^OIX] 1D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 66.95953589 / 85.06143152 / 85.06556611 (111084 shares, 22,108.25 BTC), 30D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC)
KRS1: is that his warning
gribble: yes I am gribble. why do you keep bothering me?
thestringpuller: sometimes I wonder who actually has more power, people like you, or the blokes at the bank...
smickles: ya know, i don't recall bitcoinica going down as often as ya'll say bitfinex goes down
smickles: 'coinica really only went down once
MJR_III: i think it has to do with the cloudflare anti-dddos
jurov: so i just came from meeting about btc alternatives
jurov: that changed into ppcoin sales pitch
smickles: jurov: what's so good about ppcoin?
jurov: bitcoin is too power hungry, ppcoin is more ecological
jurov: plus we received stern warning that moeny is not morally nutral
MJR_III: if you find something that uses less power, more people will mine
MJR_III: driving difficulty up further and using the same power
jurov: so if we become suddenly rich, we shoudl thin about the outcome of our actions
jurov: and ppcoin is not using difficulty
jurov: everyone who has enough coins*time can have a right to issue a block
jurov: but it's not in effect yet, its mining normally until some time passes
jurov: for now i'm reserving my judgement, maybe buying some just in case
MJR_III: while i rate all other cryptocurrencies chances as around 1% might be worth it to hold a basket of all of them, just in case
smickles: no upper limit on ppcoin amounts either
jurov: that was mentioned too that he considers inflation as consequence of 2nd thermodynamic law and thus it should be allowed
smickles: i feel like the proof-of-stake bit turns it into a game, get 51% of the coins and you win
jurov: no, someone with older coins than you can issue blocks instead
jurov: you have to wait with your 51% to get the right
jurov: after receiving them
smickles: but, wouldn't that mean they have to do nothing w/ their coins to maintain
jurov: yes, if you spend the coins, you lower your weight
jurov: this actually would be motivation to hoard, hence inflation is necessary
smickles: so, if someone gets anywhere near 50%, then people have to stop spending coins to protect it
MJR_III: while it may be an interesting and novel approach
MJR_III: as with all the others i doubt it will gain the momentum it needs
jurov: if someone gets anywhere near 50% *he* has to wait to be able to pull 51% attack, meanwhile others mine blocks and lower his part
MJR_III: it would need to have a signifigant advantage
smickles: take many massive loans, get near 50%, the claim you can't pay because you have to protect the network!
jurov: but you can't use them as a proof of stake tomine
MJR_III: bugpowder: what's stopping you?
jurov: cuz all ur coins are new and shiiny
MJR_III: in some ways this ruins the fungibility of the money though
jurov: and only older coins can be used as proof of stake to mine
jurov: well, actually i heard about it today first time, that's how i understood it
MJR_III: i just finished reading their white paper
MJR_III: bugpowder: just find someone willing to lend you some
jurov: and all btc coins aren't equal too, as anyone who tried to spend new satoshidice outputs can attest
MJR_III: jurov: because they haven't been verified yet?
jurov: een after they were verified, satoshi client defaults to higer txfee
jurov: aside from that dusted consideration
Bugpowder: oh, here was that blog with the mining profit plots
jurov: anyway my peeve with them altcoins is they all use outdated satoshi codebase
jurov: both litecoin and ppcoin are based on 0.6
jurov: while bitcoind was quite much refactored in 0.7/0.8 versions
jurov: causing simple merging impossible
jurov: and boy, they are thrashy...
jurov: bitcoin is *not* ready to replace any amount of worldwide economy. we do need experiments/forks at this stage
jurov: but we also need someone to do it properly
jurov: yea, these poor silkroad dealers you mentioned yest. let's remember them with moment of silence.
MJR_III: what happened to the sr dealers?
jurov: tiberiusiv because it is too risky to keep big amounts on exchanges
Bugpowder: You can move about 0.5MM pretty easily
jurov: and that's actually good, it slows the rally while we accrue some real competency (by tial and error, but hopefully still)
pgp: need credible exchange
jurov: like if there were millions going in and out, that wouldn't cause wild swings?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41999999 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: single 1MM gox orders have been going off once a day for the past 2 weeks
Bugpowder: there is a 1.5MM bid at 76 right now
jurov: nonsense. if all 10m bitcoins were on mtgox's ask side
MJR_III: true which is around 30 seconds now
jurov: then 1m USD would still move the price considerably
jurov: so? don't clamor for impossible them.
Bugpowder: a 1M buy right now moves the price 5%
Bugpowder: I bet a 1MM bid moves any midcap stock at least as much
jurov: tiberiusiv so how do you propose to get instantly into 1trillion mkt cap?
jurov: so you can have your beloved liquidity?
jurov: it's necessary condition
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9700 @ 0.00067039 = 6.5028 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2718 @ 0.00066531 = 1.8083 BTC [-]
jurov: one of necessary conditions
pgp: bp - your right about comparing to trading in midcap stocks
pgp: the same can be said of companies that ipo
pgp: often they float <10% of there shares and often aren't that liquid
pgp: mt gox makes it a closed system to a certain extent
jurov: i'd argue that fiat is "overliquid" since it has inflated supply so you have too high expectations
jurov: bitcoin is scarce, not easy to just lend 10k block
jurov: and use it to trade
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.014 BTC [+]
jurov: but where you can take it from? someone will lend it to you
jurov: this isn't so easy with btc.. jus lend it on moment;s notice
jurov: tiberiusiv, all that "volume" and "liuquidity" on irl fin markets is thanks to leverage
jurov: and there were crashes every now and then
jurov: like we have now in btc
jurov: yes, and i do ask, where is the liquidity from?
jurov: from leverage, i say.
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 1 @ 0.37 BTC [+]
pgp: leverage and credit lines are the key to liquidity in modern financial markets
jurov: gold covered money was not either. $1m could really create panic at its time
jurov: this is fiat at the moment
MJR_III: ugh i can't trade like this
jurov: how so? they are printing and loaning it out in hopes some greater fool will come and eat all the debt
jurov: tiberiusiv don't change the topic
jurov: you obvoisly aren't trying to understand what i'm saying :/
jurov: what i told in last 50 lines?
jurov: obviously if you aren't even replying to my point
MJR_III: jurov: he is not interested in your points, he will always change topics once you have proven him wrong yet again...
MJR_III: i ignored him long ago...i wish everyone else would
MJR_III: i know how tempting it can be to show someone who is obviuosly wrong how and where they are wrong...but i couldn't get sucked into that trap any more
MJR_III: he is banking on you getting invested in trying to show him the intelligent way of looking at things
MJR_III: he'll devolve into ad hominem, and any other logical fallacy
jurov: i know. but it's useful for me to try and explain, too, even if he isn't listening
MJR_III: i at least enjoyed reading your points
bgupta: Is there a relatively conventional futures market in btc?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.41999999 = 0.84 BTC [-]
jurov: so? you want to pump and dump and can't?
jurov: and it can get you more if ye weren't inept and bought mpoe options with these 12k in meantime
jurov: they are most liquid instrument there is
jurov: dude they are just covered by tens of thousands of btc.
MJR_III: cue talking shit about mircea_popescu
MJR_III: i can't see what he wrote but i'm guessing gypsy something
jurov: yea btc is illiquid hence everything is shit lalalalala
smickles: mp is just a greasy wanabe pimp
MJR_III: love that he can still surprise me
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 72 @ 0.41 = 29.52 BTC [-]
MJR_III: guessing his arguments from watching half the convo
MJR_III: how many people has he called poor? over/under 3
jurov: tiberiusiv nobody here agrees with you. so you must have indeed better understanding :)
taub: downpressure is stronger than ever
jurov: no i'm mere sockpuppet
jurov: so we finally arrived at name calling :D
jurov: seems i did convince you as well
jurov: granted, i did convince them first :)
jurov: yes? what did he try to sell you?
jurov: and how do you know for example iDiffs i'm selling aren't overvalued trash?
jurov: and you have obsession with undoing someone, i see :)
jurov: oh seems talking to self mode activated
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 21636 @ 0.00067234 = 14.5467 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00067326 = 3.3663 BTC [+]
jurov: sorry to disrupt your thought processes
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 15664 @ 0.00067327 = 10.5461 BTC [+]
smickles: what've you got against psycopaths?
MJR_III: have we arrived at this point already?
smickles: psycopaths are usually productive members of society
jurov: yea, especially sociopaths are among the most productive
MJR_III: they say a lot of ceo's are sociopaths
smickles: i dunno about that, seems kinda off-handed remarkish
MJR_III: yeah, its more of an urban legend i suppose
MJR_III: i can't trade at all right now, bitfinex is fucked
smickles: MJR_III: what do you want to trade?
MJR_III: not sure...maybe just short at 92
MJR_III: its mostly for fun on my bitfinex account, i usually just lend out the money, but interest rates have dropped, so i am actively trading the account to try and grow it a bit
smickles: wow, you picked a winner of a site do trade on
MJR_III: lol, only margin trading platform really
smickles: icbit works better than this place
MJR_III: i was wondering though, and maybe mircea_popescu has some experience, but what if you used some sort of system to break up the channel of info
MJR_III: like have orders on a certain port
MJR_III: or if you had a vpn session or something
smickles: i bet they could direct ddos at any port
MJR_III: i wonder if you could create a fix engine in a web browser
MJR_III: i'm sure they could smickles
MJR_III: hence you have to have a valid logon
MJR_III: and then your trading session goes across that
smickles: you'd still have to negotiate the logon
MJR_III: i just had another idea...but not sure if it would work
MJR_III: you know how yubikey or any of those authenticators work?
MJR_III: what if you used that for port based connection
MJR_III: only registered customers could connect cuz they know what port to connect on
smickles: eventually, that port would be known
jurov: i'd use ssl certificate
MJR_III: no, the port constantly changes
jurov: with some ddos protection that supports ssl
MJR_III: but since your auth is changing the same way as their client
jurov: the ddos coinbr saw would have no problem penetrating all 65535 ports
Troic: hmm what good is a different port if your upstream connection is saturated ?
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.007601 BTC [-]
MJR_III: thats what you were telling me
jurov: using various IP addresses instead of port may work
jurov: but you still need to expose some stable anchor where users authenticate
MJR_III: i still think that you could use the yubikey method
mircea_popescu: <jurov> but we also need someone to do it properly << i'm with him
jurov: hmmm... maybe create DNS entry <nextyubikeycode>.domain.com seems doable?
mircea_popescu: ppcoin sounds more like "what does this button do" than anything.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.787948 = 1.5759 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: <pgp> often they float <10% of there shares and often aren't that liquid <<< /me grins
MJR_III: jurov yeah that is what i was thinking
Troic: nothing to stop the dosser getting the ip, well 30btc, unless each user has a differnt ip/isp
assbot: [MPEX] [S.DICE] 3 @ 0.0039999 = 0.012 BTC [+]
MJR_III: how would he get the token?
jurov: yes you need a pool of ips
MJR_III: only registered users would get it
MJR_III: and yes, a pool of ips, but that shouldn't be that hard
jurov: yubikey creates a pseudorandom string and you know what the strign is going to be, no?
jurov: as you issued the yubikey
Troic: pool of IPs on different AS, that is expensive, at least you can shut the account down :)
MJR_III: and it changes every 20 seconds according to a pattern that only you can tell]
jurov: bah, it can be just a bunch of spot instances or cheap vpses
MJR_III: i guess it would be similar to the one time password that gribble does
MJR_III: exactly, its just a simple authenticator which serves as a gatekeeper before you connect
Troic: 'bunch of spot instances or cheap vpses' all on same router for dos to target
jurov: Troic, on amazon you can have the instances on like 10 diff places
MJR_III: AWS instances in different zones?
jurov: for almost the same price, yes
mircea_popescu: some ninny actually took the time to blow them up one at a time
jurov: mircea_popescu cuz you didn't use amazon loadbalancer... granted, with 10TB traffic it would get a bit expensive :)
MJR_III: what is the cost of a ddos of that magnitude?
jurov: yes we were talink about that, but after experimenting i realized hiding these cheap vpses behind loadbalancer is the way to go
mircea_popescu: i hear 1gbit for 30 seconds is like 5-10 bux for random noob.
MJR_III: 10 terabytes? that has got to cost quite a bit
jurov: 10TB is around 300bux iirc
jurov: thre's maybe hope they are onyl counting legit traffic that ges through
jurov: i should research it
jurov: $0.008 per GB of data processed by an Elastic Load Balancer, no further details
jurov: plus $0.025 per Elastic Load Balancer-hour (or partial hour)
MJR_III: you could bring it up when the attack starts
MJR_III: and i think you would be blocking their expensive attack with a cheap shield
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 10 @ 0.48 = 4.8 BTC [+]
taub: what do you guys think? up/down?
taub: I'm still bearish short term, this retracement isn't over
MJR_III: think we are somewhat stablising
MJR_III: i think we bounce between 92 and 88
MJR_III: maybe if gox lag gets bad quick spikes in either direction
MJR_III: mircea_popescu: so what is cloudflare actually doing for bitfinex
mircea_popescu: i dunno who was asking me about ddos protection services and i said they all have their issues
taub: bitfinex would work better if they would deploy on a more solid exchange
MJR_III: bitfloor has the best response time i think
taub: yea, its the least worst exchange i've seen
MJR_III: wish there was a better order interface
taub: okay mpex is the pinnacle, but for btcusd
MJR_III: also margin and shorting would be nice
jurov: mircea_popescu: options did exercise but old names still stayed
jurov: or it's scheduled for later?
MJR_III: also...roman told me that he could handle 2k orders per second
MJR_III: mircea_popescu: so if its the router...if it just drops all but a certain subset of traffic, can it still be overloaded?
MJR_III: mircea_popescu: so there is unblockable ddos?
jurov: if they flooded with fully legit gpg-encypted requests for example
KRS1: i dont think there is such a thing MJR
MJR_III: KRS1: a purely hardware overload
KRS1: you can filter it through a proxy
KRS1: thats what my friend does for a living..he mitigates attacks
MJR_III: KRS1: if the proxy is overloaded
KRS1: i know a bit about it being in IT but i'm not an expert in that area
MJR_III: well, i think every piece of hardware will have a limit
MJR_III: and this is just theorizing
MJR_III: but if any piece is overloaded (it could restart, or have its buffers flooded) you break the site
KRS1: the proxy typically is equipped for the traffic and then its filtered and sent to the customer
MJR_III: mircea was talking about terabytes of data
KRS1: the idea is that if you cant accept the traffic something needs to accept it for you that cant be overwhelmed
KRS1: even for terabytes of data
MJR_III: but my point is that as far as i know there is no device with unlimited capacity
ThickAsThieves: how many hours til newstyle options might be released?
KRS1: with additional hardware
MJR_III: so if you had a 100gb router (they exist) it could still be brought down
KRS1: sure why not...any distributed effort can be bigger than its target.
MJR_III: of course you probbably donb't need to stop theoretical attacks just make it impractical
KRS1: hopefully you have something that can accept the traffic that can handle it
MJR_III: but for example, i am setting up an stunnel to bitfloor
MJR_III: so worst case if the site goes down, that should not bring down my stunnel
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 14 @ 0.00385 = 0.0539 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 20 @ 0.00381 = 0.0762 BTC [-]
MJR_III: so for an institutional client, some sort of vpn on dedicated hardware is probably best
KRS1: encryption adds a lot of overhead
KRS1: i think i see what you are saying
KRS1: what would be the target though
KRS1: hopefully multiples that can failover if need be
KRS1: the cisco ASA can vpn too
MJR_III: and 6509's 2 of them VSS'd
KRS1: dont forget about bandwidth when setting up stunnel, encryption adds overhead
MJR_III: hmmm, what is the best router out there?
MJR_III: the asa is actually a firewall right
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 2 @ 1.895 = 3.79 BTC [+]
MJR_III: juniper makes some nice stuff
MJR_III: fuck when i finally got back on bitfinex i am greeted by the position i didn't know i had
MJR_III: it actually is not that bad of a position though...short at 90.50
jurov: mircea used vwap 90.34 ??? quite a boost we got there :P
MJR_III: i exercised at 71, what a sucker i am
MJR_III: that was awesome, my local pizza place delivered me cigarettes
MJR_III: i wonder...how will ipv6 change the DDOS landscape
KRS1: router-depends on what you use it for
KRS1: ipv6 is just a transport mechanism not sure it would matter
MJR_III: you could have a MUCH greater address pool
KRS1: sorry i mean addressing method
MJR_III: and also you wouldn't have to worry about NATing
KRS1: yeah ipv6 would increase the # of ddos participants against the target if you could ever get there
KRS1: router- depending on the application
jurov: lol certain lucky coinbr user made 4 btc out of one using calls (not tibby obviously)
jurov: thestringpuller don't be impatient :)
jurov: so all the bonds that went below 100BTC will be paid out automatically or we need to ask?
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.MPOE-PT] 700 @ 0.000617 = 0.4319 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.MPOE-PT] 120 @ 0.000616 = 0.0739 BTC [-]
jurov: mircea_popescu: and why so high vwap got used? did it really fell from 90.34 to 89.55 in 10 minutes?
taub: i dont like this price action one bit
mircea_popescu: there's a lot of volume right at the edge of the rolling window
MJR_III: wow mircea_popescu, that did make me nauseous
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.4 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.4199 BTC [+]
jurov: converted even bad news into sales pitch...
jborkl: we all knew the bot was going to beat like rodney king
MJR_III: but why did bugpowder think that would affect dividends
jurov: mpex.co now looks so easily comprehensive, all options gone
MJR_III: bitfinex sucks, they don't actually send orders out, but whatever engine they have doesn't send them out quickly enough, which partially gox's fault
MJR_III: it traded down to 87 without me getting filled
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 10 @ 0.4 = 4 BTC [-]
jurov: 20 to 200 with step 3 planned? we'll have 244 new options then...
MJR_III: wouldn't it be 90 puts and 90 calls for each month?
jurov: no, 61 puts and 61 calls
jurov: if i'm to believe this oocalc thing
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 50 @ 0.4 = 20 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 30 @ 0.4 = 12 BTC [-]
MJR_III: lol, thats why i should use gribble
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 40 @ 0.4 = 16 BTC [-]
jurov: C750 to be upgraded to C77, yum
MJR_III: looking forward to sdice financials this month
MJR_III: jurov: isn't that downgraded?
MJR_III: unless you were short i suppose
MJR_III: but if i was long that call i would have rather gone to 74
smickles: BUY|O.USD.C920T|7|11344696 <<< does that look wrong to anyone :D
Diablo-D3: no because I have no clue wtf it says
jurov: that looks VERY bullish
jurov: Diablo-D3: smickles wants option to buy 7 BTC at $920 each :)
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.4 BTC [-]
jurov: at measly 1.134 per option
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.4 = 0.8 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.4 = 0.8 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK:SDICE] 1D: 0.35000000 / 0.41321889 / 0.46500000 (457 shares, 188.84103088 BTC), 7D: 0.35000000 / 0.45346676 / 0.53000000 (1701 shares, 771.34695284 BTC), 30D: 0.35000000 / 0.5143263 / 0.68950000 (6033 shares, 3102.93054732 BTC)
Diablo-D3: but I bought a bowl and everything :<
MJR_III: would it be fun to have an open cry pit for bitcoins?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3600 @ 0.00067327 = 2.4238 BTC [+]
MJR_III: i mostly want to do it for the cool jackets...
smickles: ok, what's wrong with BUY|O.USD.C89T|7|12279228 ?
smickles: mircea_popescu: why does it show on mpex.co as C89T?
mircea_popescu: so : the mpsic change is complete. if you had N's that were realocated they should show up.
mircea_popescu: the entire thing is trading under supervision and stuff may be rolled back if there's issues.
taub: thats a lot of options :D
MJR_III: what do you think mircea_popescu, trading jackets and open cry pit?
MJR_III: plus the hand signals look cool
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 5 @ 0.78791 = 3.9396 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 3 @ 0.787948 = 2.3638 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.78795 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.788 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 10 @ 0.78895 = 7.8895 BTC [+]
thestringpuller: mircea_popescu: that was the saddest financial report ever
taub: oh sick bids @ mtgox
gribble: There are currently 8425.506 bitcoins offered at or under 94.0 USD, worth 779353.416378 USD in total. | Data vintage: 72.7984 seconds
gribble: smickles was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 14 minutes and 57 seconds ago: <smickles> oh, it just changed
mircea_popescu: <MJR_III> it traded down to 87 without me getting filled << usually the sign of bucket shoppery.
gribble: There are currently 16363.067 bitcoins demanded at or over 85.0 USD, worth 1467808.69682 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0052 seconds
gribble: There are currently 46099.881 bitcoins demanded at or over 75.0 USD, worth 3796776.10301 USD in total. | Data vintage: 26.1647 seconds
mircea_popescu: <jurov> C750 to be upgraded to C77, yum << you mean 74 ?
jurov: yes i stand corrected
MJR_III: that is a huge ass wall at 92
MJR_III: this movie is pretty fun to watch
Chaang-Noi: 10k and growin, like 13k now... bull trap maybe? get people to place bids at 92, then crash market? :)
mircea_popescu: i might have lost 15k rthis month, but on the upside who the duck else has monthly report and whole mpsic changeover in 2 hours ?
MJR_III: mircea_popescu yes, nice transition
MJR_III: this is the most interesting thing about trading, is that for every trade there is someone else on the other side
MJR_III: and i think economics forgets that at times
MJR_III: and people who trade with each other a lot, its like your win can be their loss
MJR_III: yeah looks like we are headed to 94 for sure
Chaang-Noi: lol, like im going to scare the bulls :)
Chaang-Noi: we might get 100 before april after all
gribble: There are currently 23844.076 bitcoins offered at or under 100.0 USD, worth 2309880.5722 USD in total. | Data vintage: 63.0708 seconds
Chaang-Noi: asic miner, too many rich holders eh? well lets wait for the 260 ghs :)
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2282 @ 0.00066531 = 1.5182 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 6068 @ 0.00066529 = 4.037 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C098T] 230 @ 0.22099114 = 50.828 BTC
assbot: [MPEX:^OIX] 1D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 66.95953589 / 85.06143152 / 85.06556611 (111084 shares, 22,108.25 BTC), 30D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC)
jurov: MJR_III: coinbr should be done too
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.P050T] 8 @ 0.0157744 = 0.1262 BTC
MJR_III: jurov: have we gotten divs yet?
jurov: s.mpoe hasn't paid yet
jurov: oh yes, i must tell to deprived they weren't in order
MJR_III: i take it you are a recipient of the double cherry truck award?
jurov: yea, i have drawn it and awarded mpex. got 5btc in return :)
jurov: in memory of Patrick Harnett
mircea_popescu: jurov : if you have any artist friends you can always troll them
mircea_popescu: by pointing out that they don't ger 500 bux for a vignette
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.01449 BTC [+]
MJR_III: lets see that wall disappear
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.0145 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.016 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.017 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.019 BTC [+]
jurov: yea. that was actually second time i won some such contest
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 11 @ 0.01966 = 0.2163 BTC [+]
MJR_III: so, did you transfer rights to the double cherry truck award to mpex, or do you retain the rights to award said trophy
jurov: MJR_III: i guess once btc will rise enough, i can find lawyer to pick the case pro bono
MJR_III: i think that award will be worth a lot in the future...i would like to be a recipient of the double cherry truck award, but i think that the moody's triple a rating will be slightly smoky dragon
mircea_popescu: i'm gonna have to come up with criteria to award these now
jurov: and i'll be awarding ravaging mermaid
jurov: kakobrekla: you should make banners with rotating bets and put them on reddit, some bet fall quickly into obscurity
jurov: especially some i'd like to bet moar
Chaang-Noi: large drama on bitcoin talk = large bets
Chaang-Noi: a company to profit off of bitcoin drama, best idea evar
jurov: Chaang-Noi: have you seen the one "bitcointalk treasurer to be scammer tagged"?
Chaang-Noi: i expect Og to be the scammer of the group
Chaang-Noi: also dont forget theymos is the guy who hands out tags:)
mircea_popescu: o also, someone be kind enough to put march report on reddit ?
MJR_III: who put up that wall and to what end?
Chaang-Noi: want has btc or want has btc price move up?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 92.52001, Best ask: 92.74995, Bid-ask spread: 0.22994, Last trade: 92.74995, 24 hour volume: 73187.25009339, 24 hour low: 85.50000, 24 hour high: 94.00000, 24 hour vwap: 90.09023
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.MPOE-PT] 47 @ 0.000607 = 0.0285 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 3 @ 0.797793 = 2.3934 BTC [+]
gribble: There are currently 34671020 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 10482734.1184 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0176 seconds
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 9 @ 0.797794 = 7.1801 BTC [+]
gribble: There are currently 18564.837 bitcoins offered at or under 99.91 USD, worth 1797672.6472 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0022 seconds
gribble: There are currently 20005.793 bitcoins demanded at or over 85.0 USD, worth 1792948.69182 USD in total. | Data vintage: 25.0206 seconds
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 1 @ 0.3451 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.38000001 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 1 @ 1.88 BTC [-]
gribble: Current Blocks: 228740 | Current Difficulty: 6695826.282596251 | Next Difficulty At Block: 229823 | Next Difficulty In: 1083 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 2 hours, 50 minutes, and 50 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 7311735.07761 | Estimated Percent Change: 9.1984
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.8 = 3.2 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.79 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.78 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.771 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 5 @ 0.77 = 3.85 BTC [-]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 91.30001, Best ask: 91.98999, Bid-ask spread: 0.68998, Last trade: 91.30000, 24 hour volume: 68373.91210877, 24 hour low: 85.50000, 24 hour high: 94.98000, 24 hour vwap: 90.17684
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2200 @ 0.00066394 = 1.4607 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7868 @ 0.00066409 = 5.2251 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1347 @ 0.00067673 = 0.9116 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 36 @ 0.00067674 = 0.0244 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 3 @ 0.37 = 1.11 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [COGNITIVE] 7 @ 0.1565 = 1.0955 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8 = 1.6 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 2 @ 0.37 = 0.74 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.BBET-PT] 10 @ 0.00158 = 0.0158 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 18664 @ 0.00067674 = 12.6307 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.485 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 20 @ 0.00399 = 0.0798 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [PAJKA.BOND] 1 @ 0.1059 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C092T] 600 @ 0.24766633 = 148.5998 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 936 @ 0.00067685 = 0.6335 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1214 @ 0.00066805 = 0.811 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5901 @ 0.00067952 = 4.0098 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 299 @ 0.00067955 = 0.2032 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 7586 @ 0.00066805 = 5.0678 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 912 @ 0.00066394 = 0.6055 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.81 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8 = 1.6 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.485 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 25400 @ 0.00067955 = 17.2606 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 22 @ 0.8 = 17.6 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 1 @ 0.37 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] [PAID] 196.89044015 BTC to 500`000`000 shares, 39 satoshi per share
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 2 @ 0.37 = 0.74 BTC [+]
greenglue: is there any sort of stock market for BTC? other than MPEx which costs 30BTC to join
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00067953 = 3.3977 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 37 @ 0.00067955 = 0.0251 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2863 @ 0.00067955 = 1.9456 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [B.YABMC] 1 @ 0.007701 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2050 @ 0.00067955 = 1.3931 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 1 @ 0.4999 BTC [+]
ThickAsThieves: wtb 5000+ SDICE pm if you have fair price (below current market asks)
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.8 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.0041 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 399 @ 0.0041 = 1.6359 BTC [+]
pgp: question: MPEX support a socket based implementation for requesting trades from a certain seq number forward. Why isn't there something like that for quotes?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41499999 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 25 @ 0.00409 = 0.1023 BTC [-]
taub: hm, maybe there wont be a big second downmove from here
ThickAsThieves: i have bids up, was just fishing to see if there were any sellers inside the spread that dont have asks up
Bugpowder: Historically it averages 12% return on notional exposure a month
Bugpowder: It's all in the financial statement
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.8 = 1.6 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.39999999 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: This was always possible, very clearly so
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.4 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [PAJKA.BOND] 7 @ 0.106 = 0.742 BTC [+]
OneMiner: There's no doubt that this is self aggrandizing trolling. If what you are saying is the truth or not you're trying to make yourself the center of attention. Knock it off.
Bugpowder: Actual losses of principal were 19k of which mircrea provided 75% of
OneMiner: Ya, just wanted to pass into. Like everything you've said about it and how your opinion matters so much. Don't flood.
ThickAsThieves: my only question is, has the bot algo been adjusted to mitigate this exposure in the future
Bugpowder: Well considering the max bond exposure is always less than the total capital, indefinitely.
Bugpowder: Although the bot liquidity might go bye bye
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.4 = 1.6 BTC [+]
ThickAsThieves: but if MP lost that much covering the bonds, I'd like to hear if changes have been made to mitigate
ThickAsThieves: Bug who are you talking to, i must have them on ignore
Bugpowder: Anyway, if you dont understand the risks of being a bond holder, you should probably go back to the gloves kiddy pool
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 9 @ 0.00409 = 0.0368 BTC [-]
Bugpowder: Because he didn't understand the real risks
ThickAsThieves: MPs losses are a small portion of his assets, but I have to assume he will asjust exposure of the bot after this, no?
Bugpowder: Mpoe bonds never seemed like a good value prop To me.
ThickAsThieves: right, so rather than litter this chan with bitching, I'm just asking what I think is a sensible question,
mircea_popescu: <ThickAsThieves> my only question is, has the bot algo been adjusted to mitigate this exposure in the future << no.
ThickAsThieves: MP, so you'll continue to take on the majority liability of the bot?
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder the issue is that people make assumption based on the algo as is
mircea_popescu: the correct fix is for bond ppl to set appropriatge interests
mircea_popescu: not for me to dick around in the fabric of the universe.
ThickAsThieves: but the sustainability of your setup is in danger if price continues to move violently
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves i've always backstopped the bot, since day one.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder anyway, the variance would be fucking high. +400% a month fml.
OneMiner: Why is the whole internet a troll magnet? Be respectful, please.
Bugpowder: And for me, if I don't see what I consider to be mispriced options, I'm not going to buy them
OneMiner: Just don't be rude about it. There's no reason to be a jerk.
OneMiner: Cool, say it once and be done.
Bugpowder: Not seeing it. I'm seeing clear contracts traded and honored
Bugpowder: What about covered exposure are you pretending you don't understand?
OneMiner: I personally don't know and don't hold any of this asset. But I'm being prevented from listening to any intelligent talk about the issue by trolling.Wether you think you are justified or not.
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C092T] 575 @ 0.24943748 = 143.4266 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: fucking hell am i going to be paying .6 btc worth 200 each on these ?
mircea_popescu: i tell you, running the options book is the worst fucking racket there is. when you get no trade you're depressed, when you do get trade you're worried.
OneMiner: Oh lord. +b tiberiusiv He's just repeating himself over and over.
mircea_popescu: OneMiner prolly ignore works better than banning people.
OneMiner: Ignore is confusing. Can't tell who is talking to who.
mircea_popescu: it DOES make unignored people look like muppets when they're in effect talking to themselves lol
Bugpowder: Ciuciu is back! I thought he was gone after robbing everyone
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder girl said he was there to warn everyone about her shirt
assbot: [MPEX:S.MPOE] 1D: 0.00066393 / 0.00067378 / 0.00068314 (591559 shares, 398.58 BTC), 7D: 0.0006 / 0.00066121 / 0.00071369 (2268750 shares, 1,500.12 BTC), 30D: 0.0006 / 0.00073136 / 0.00078628 (17700228 shares, 12,945.38 BTC)
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C089T] 120 @ 0.26539875 = 31.8479 BTC
thestrin1puller: there is a 29k loss for bondholders, maybe bondholders aren't mpoe holders
mircea_popescu: then again... i guess i can see it. shareholders don't care, not their skin. made a 39 per which is not really much lower than usual
mircea_popescu: thestrin1puller they are lol. i hold most of mpoe and held most of the bond book >.<
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: what's the plan to bring MPOE bot to MPOE bot 2.0
ThickAsThieves: how are bonds purchased, other than thrue the coinbr bitfunder assets?
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves you send no less than 100 btc to 1JPvucRfu3ZzEvfBUQTJwsxMrZjeTqD6zR ending in 888 (so like 100.00000888) after you've emailed me stating your beneficiary addy and desired %
thestrin1puller: dunno, seems the bot has trouble with times of extreme volatility
mircea_popescu: listen, there's no way to make a bot so you always win.
ThickAsThieves: sensible, but it seems odd to be THAT exposed in the algo
mircea_popescu: but this is what it does. mpoe bot is in the market of buying exposure.
mircea_popescu: so other people can sell their exposure and increase their safety.
mircea_popescu: it's sort of like insurance, if you will. you pay a little every month
mircea_popescu: when a hurricane hits the insurer pays through the teeth.
mircea_popescu: thestrin1puller well they don't really. the idea is they're taking on risk for a high %
mircea_popescu: mpoe-bonds are pretty much the highest reward / highest risk actgion in btc.
ThickAsThieves: the history of gained % seems a bit disproportionate to the risk
mircea_popescu: if that's true then bondholders have been mispricing their %
mircea_popescu: well ya on this month. i rarely participate in the actual market.
mircea_popescu: as in, i don't set a %, i just take whatever the max was
DeaDTerra: WTS GSDPT shares and BTCQuick shares :)
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: why not create a war chest? For times like thse.
mircea_popescu: atm mpoe is a 0 capital venture, which is a good thing.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 9014 @ 0.00067281 = 6.0647 BTC [-]
thestrin1puller: I've used the same model for some of my real life ventures, it's a very good model in that you view capital as "equipment"
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 10 @ 0.48 = 4.8 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 6 @ 0.4994 = 2.9964 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 12 @ 0.4995 = 5.994 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 72 @ 0.4999 = 35.9928 BTC [+]
thestrin1puller: however it's the riskiness involved in "borrowing" the capital (can it be paid back /w interest)
Scrat: the trolling potential of this channel is quite high. how could I miss this
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41499998 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41499999 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK:HIM] 1D: 1.88000000 / 1.89 / 1.89500000 (3 shares, 5.67000000 BTC), 7D: 1.41000000 / 1.72614891 / 2.00000000 (182 shares, 314.15910103 BTC), 30D: 1.40000000 / 1.82208764 / 17.25000000 (716 shares, 1304.61475269 BTC)
taub: I guess I can now go to my grave having contributed ~15k BTC of my own to the stabilisation of BTC <- was that big push you yesterday? :>
mircea_popescu: <Bugpowder> Mpex is a sideshow <<< if it weren't for mpex there'd have been no divs this month at all.
Bugpowder: In terms of the main profit engine
Bugpowder: Mpoe has provided most of the returns and volatility
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 5 @ 1.93 = 9.65 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: mpex makes sure there's warm server soup on the table.
benkay: isn't that what the help is for?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [KCIM] 1 @ 1.198 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 2 @ 0.41499998 = 0.83 BTC [-]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 4 @ 0.41499998 = 1.66 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 24 @ 0.37 = 8.88 BTC [+]
taub: yesterday on mygox there suddenly was 15k on the bid
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.7701 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.7701 = 1.5402 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.77 = 1.54 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.7653 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 6 @ 0.7605 = 4.563 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 8 @ 0.7603 = 6.0824 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 10 @ 0.7602 = 7.602 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.75 = 1.5 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 6 @ 0.75 = 4.5 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.75 = 3 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 38 @ 0.74 = 28.12 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [BASIC-MINING] 5 @ 0.38 = 1.9 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [KCIM] 1 @ 1.1999 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41499998 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 48 @ 0.00409 = 0.1963 BTC [-]
taub: but mpex either needs more horrible traders
taub: or you could start hedging your options
taub: to bring down that big variance...
taub: you're basically operating a bucket shop
taub: but not enough suckers
taub: who lose on their options
taub: because you take the other side of each trade, if traders only win against you then you lose money
taub: in forex i thought it was, a broker taht assumes most of their customers are gonna lose money
mircea_popescu: but anyway : mpoe can't hedge. what it does is it allows others to hedge against it.
benkay: would you elaborate on what a bucket shop is and why MPEx is not that?
taub: the exchange i solid
taub: the option bot is the worrysome part
benkay: i also do not understand the option bot's behavior.
taub: mircea_popescu: if the underlying volume and depth cant support your options you shouldnt be offering them like that maybe ;)
jurov: lol all the hate. inbetween, coinbr got possibly most deposits in one day in few hrs i was afk
benkay: or its role. mircea_popescu, would you elaborate on the bot's role?
jurov: they will be processed shortly
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 20 @ 0.4999 = 9.998 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: a bucket shop is a currently illegal, historically popular venue to take side bets on stocks.
jurov: as well as mpoe dividend
mircea_popescu: the operator would offer very high margin and trade with low net worth parties who couldn't participate in the real marketsd.
mircea_popescu: mpex does offer stocks, but that's not under discussion here. as for the derivative trade, ie options, these are a different market from the underlying.
taub: most forex brokers still operate like that
benkay: yes, that makes sense. and the bot?
mircea_popescu: okay. the bot itself is a primary seller of safety in btc.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 10143 @ 0.00067879 = 6.885 BTC [+]
benkay: I don't understand the phrase "seller of safety in btc".
mircea_popescu: this is what it does. if i go buy safety somewhere else then i'm no longer PROVIDING it
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 1 @ 0.41499999 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: benkay take the insurance example, because it is really very apt.
mircea_popescu: it would be beneficial for them to buy flood insurance.
mircea_popescu: the only way to actually underwrite this is to have a lot of money, sign insurance policies with the farmers.
taub: i dont think thats how real option issuer work tho
mircea_popescu: the alternative would be to simply re-buy insurance somewhere else. but this isn't underwriting, this is simply trading.
mircea_popescu: i'm not trading volatility, i'm actually providing the hedge endpoint.
mircea_popescu: or if you prefer the example of the internet : second, third and higher tier providers BUY bandwidth.
mircea_popescu: but the 1st level providers don't buy it, cause there's nobody to buy it from
mircea_popescu: the moment i go in the market to hedge i'm basically releasing all the risk out there. this isn't waht mpoe does. mpoe just soaks up the risk.
benkay: thanks mp, i understand the mechanism a little better now. what I still don't understand is what the MPOE bot is up to.
thestrin1puller: "You can't pull yourself up by your breeches and for the very same reason you can't have everybody in the market hedge. Someone needs to provide the support everyone else relies on to hedge. I'm that someone." - MP
benkay: we are engaging in a discussion of this topic, yes
benkay: no as in like wtf is it actually doing
benkay: how does it decide where to place its bids?
benkay: so it behaves as just another trader?
benkay: providing liquidity to the market?
assbot: [MPEX:^OIX] 1D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC), 7D: 55.14018691 / 85.06423935 / 85.06556611 (111010 shares, 22,104.19 BTC), 30D: 0 / 0 / 0 (0 shares, 0 BTC)
taub: they are binary options yea? dont think i quite understand their pricing from 0 to 1
benkay: what exchange-proprietary information does the bot get access to?
benkay: obviously you have to say that.
thestrin1puller: am I the only one who feels bad for this month's bond holders?
bitesak: thanks mp for the service you provide;
jurov: mircea_popescu: exercises are not public
mircea_popescu: bitesak i'd normally say my pleasure... but this month was a little rough.
bitesak: do you adjust the algo going forward to take into consideration what causes big losses?
jurov: no replies on btctalk so far... but we'll see when ppl come to bitfunder to receive only 0.081 pre share
thestrin1puller: "All complaints of bondholder loss should be directed to Bugpowder who now holds your money"
jurov: heh, i made some myself, tooo
mircea_popescu: poor guy lol. one day he's claiming market success like what... 99% of all internet ppl in financial rooms
thestrin1puller: Maybe he'll start a company to benefit bitcoin (yay optimism LOL)
jurov: he;'ll benefit tesla motors
thestrin1puller: tiberiusiv: option writers make the most money when there is no volatility in the underlying security
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [SDICE] 3 @ 0.41499998 = 1.245 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX:S.DICE] 1D: 0.00337335 / 0.00368422 / 0.0039999 (14099 shares, 51.94 BTC), 7D: 0.0031 / 0.00338624 / 0.0045 (675573 shares, 2,287.66 BTC), 30D: 0.00300001 / 0.00449093 / 0.00637777 (1675373 shares, 7,524.00 BTC)
jurov: thestrin1puller: he knows everything, no need to explain anything to him. and ofc, thars NO LIQUIDITY
thestrin1puller: Up until this month MPOE bonds were profitable long term (all profits + all losses > 0)
jurov: tiberiusiv: ofc, if mp goes out of money he stops sellin options. happened before already
thestrin1puller: I know they are, this month they are, just like an insurance company loses money during a natural disaster...
jurov: tiberiusiv: those who profited by buying calls see the credibility soar :)
thestrin1puller: insurance companies also have reserves they invest to hedge that risk...
thestrin1puller: that's not up to mircea_popescu it's up to his bondholders
benkay: that's an expansive claim.
benkay: what sheet, tiberiusiv?
jurov: tiberiusiv: there's mircea's private activities like MPHF
jurov: = shorting GLBSEsque assets
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: are ALL your financials public knowledge? lets clear this up
mircea_popescu: thestrin1puller no. i paid twennyfive dollars for a girls pair of stockings out of pocket yesterday.
benkay: how many months of 15k losses can MPEx/Mircea Popescu sustain?
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: it seems tiberiusiv knows your financials because they are all public
jurov: thestrin1puller i told ya, he knows everything
benkay: i suppose. does polimedia srl's corporate structure provide for funding MPEx?
mircea_popescu: it's a romanian-based llc (srl in romanian) that i own ~99% of
benkay: then, how many months of 15kbtc losses can the exchange sustain?
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu you make a bunch of people rich this month, and people still complain...
mircea_popescu: thestrin1puller ya well, the thing is this : mpoe and mpex are VERY complex, well thought out intricately designed gems.
mircea_popescu: "people" have been busily ignoring it for the past year or two
mircea_popescu: now "people" are confronted with the rude awakening of reality. kinda bound to be a little thrashing about.
gribble: Error: "bc,24hprc" is not a valid command.
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.792 = 3.168 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 90.49001, Best ask: 90.50000, Bid-ask spread: 0.00999, Last trade: 90.50000, 24 hour volume: 51005.98011536, 24 hour low: 85.50000, 24 hour high: 94.98000, 24 hour vwap: 90.64316
bitesak: Roumania is taking Europe over__
benkay: ooh. what's the difference between MPOE and MPEx?
jurov: MPOE is the options trades, MPEx is the exchange
thestrin1puller: Hmm. mircea_popescu could one externally hedge risks of being a bondholder with other investments no?
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [KCIM] 7 @ 1.198 = 8.386 BTC [-]
jurov: thestrin1puller hedge them by buying options :D
mircea_popescu: bitesak lol considering the state of finances everywhere in europe vs romania... that's not quite so far off.
thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: for instance I put x BTC in Bonds during a bad month, but some other investment say, S.DICE growth, effectively neutralizes my bond losses
mircea_popescu: to hedge you would need things which for good reason move in opposing directions.
jurov: thestrin1puller: BTC growth itself effectively neutralized your bond losses, don't forget
mircea_popescu: if you have 105 btc and put 100 btc into mpoe bonds expect a wild ride.
mircea_popescu: jurov that is a point, in fiat terms the bondholders made money :D
mircea_popescu: actually... this is interesting. from a purely fiat perspective mpoe bonds may be one of the best btc-investments you can make.
bitesak: I have been saying that for sometime in Switzerland :)
jurov: tiberiusiv, you forget there's someone who actually sees your portfolio and call you on your BS
mircea_popescu: thestrin1puller thinking more about your question : it would seem to me there is some relation here:
mircea_popescu: MPOE bonds make money on calm fx market, lose money on volatility.
assbot: [MPEX] [S.DICE] 1750 @ 0.0039999 = 6.9998 BTC [+]
mircea_popescu: so maybe the best play is a weighted binary portofolio, bonds and mtgox shares
mircea_popescu: it's moot practically as they're not listed, but since we're discussing theory.
taub: mtgox makes money on volume, not volatility
jurov: tiberiusiv, i actually did it once when everyone was like "half reward is coming, brace ur"
jurov: i did a split, sold both puts and calls
jurov: and indeed nothing happened then
jurov: but won't dare to repeat it
mircea_popescu: i guess btc is still very much a contrarian market. whatever the public consensus is, it's prolly wrong.
jurov: that kakobrekla fella
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla what's it like there ? i can't make sense of all the bs i'm reading.
jurov: about impending doom
kakobrekla: fyi italy is in yurop and you worry bout slovenia?
jurov: slovenia to sunk into adriatic, austrians want some coastline :D
assbot: [MPEX:S.DICE] 1D: 0.00337335 / 0.00371908 / 0.0039999 (15849 shares, 58.94 BTC), 7D: 0.0031 / 0.00338783 / 0.0045 (677323 shares, 2,294.66 BTC), 30D: 0.00300001 / 0.00449042 / 0.00637777 (1677123 shares, 7,531.00 BTC)
brianethier_: With a lot of headecks, we managed to put together another site from wich you can buy Amazon Gift Cards with Bitcoins. You no longer need an account, it’s much simpler to use now. We received a lot of complaints that user accounts are not necessary so we removed them. We are still a bit rugged, but donations are open so you can donate (if you want to) so we can improve the site. The new site is at:
http://amazonbitco thestrin1puller: mircea_popescu: it seems you win again ;) I would say, all and all for a month that is a beating, you have come out relatively unscathed...
mircea_popescu: why can't he participate in the chan like normal human beings.
jurov: what are headecks?
jurov: something like tinfoil hats, just for stupidity?
jurov: his previous post is also interesting
jurov: not US resident anymore
KRS1: <tiberiusiv> and it will be even harder now
KRS1: <tiberiusiv> with BTC deflation
KRS1: I thought BTC wont go through deflation period until almost mined up
KRS1: maybe i dont understand the context..but..
KRS1: from what I understand about economics, like inflation deflation is not necessarily good
KRS1: so this is a good case of deflation
ThickAsThieves: alternative idea for channel bannings: offer ignore bounties, pay .001 to anyone that ignored the desired person, if you are caught responding to that troll you pay .1 penalty, profits go to assbot dev
KRS1: How do you get that figure mircea popescu
KRS1: thats low as far as im understanding it and not bad either
KRS1: these are all good indicators i think
mircea_popescu: (the exact way is left as an exercise to the user, seeing how depending on how you do it you get diff results)
jurov: CoinBr.MPBPT-O paid out, 0.07679501 BTC per share (nominal value 0.1 BTC)
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.795 = 1.59 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 4 @ 0.7999 = 3.1996 BTC [+]
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 90.80001, Best ask: 90.98999, Bid-ask spread: 0.18998, Last trade: 90.98999, 24 hour volume: 49893.62640319, 24 hour low: 85.50000, 24 hour high: 94.98000, 24 hour vwap: 90.70184
toffoo: prolly not going to be over easter holiday weekend
toffoo: gotta wait for the snail banks to open again to get more fresh buying funds into the market
gribble: There are currently 16264.821 bitcoins demanded at or over 85.0 USD, worth 1422076.42737 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0064 seconds
toffoo: looks like maybe litecoin is the one that's rockin to new highs these days
gribble: There are currently 6698.9219 bitcoins demanded at or over 88.0 USD, worth 596157.374234 USD in total. | Data vintage: 5.3952 seconds
gribble: There are currently 11822.091 bitcoins offered at or under 96.0 USD, worth 1113104.50621 USD in total. | Data vintage: 21.2181 seconds
gribble: There are currently 3311.6116 bitcoins offered at or under 93.0 USD, worth 306592.030934 USD in total. | Data vintage: 33.4255 seconds
toffoo: maybe litecoin will cross $1 before bitcoin crosses $100
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 971 @ 0.00067327 = 0.6537 BTC [-]
toffoo: well it's worth $0.81 right now ...
toffoo: i'd managed to ignore it all all other *coins until now,
toffoo: but this month it has gotten my attention
ThickAsThieves: all in all I'd have been better off not dabbling in LTC at all, other than that it introduced me to Deprived, who's pretty interesting
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 1 @ 1.94999999 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 2 @ 1.97999999 = 3.96 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 1 @ 1.98 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 1 @ 1.99999999 BTC [+]
kakobrekla: ThickAsThieves why would you be better off
kakobrekla: made 100% in 3 days or so and never looked back
toffoo: well, my investment thesis is something like the following:
toffoo: i've always followed pretty closely the effect of difficulty on bitcoin prices,
toffoo: and now with ASICs moving that to the moon,
toffoo: the feeling is that a lot of the GPU mining farms will drop out and start mining litecoin,
toffoo: which will cause it's difficulty to start rising,
toffoo: and therefore market prices are following
kakobrekla: well you can invest in eskimo bobs ART and thats about it
mircea_popescu: kakobrekla o totally forgot. how's the clay business i wonder
toffoo: try to find a chart of litecoin difficulty the past few weeks
ThickAsThieves: basically, i started to learn the price manipulation patterns in BTC-e for LTC,
ThickAsThieves: but i covered a bit by sniping underpriced assets at ltcglobal
ThickAsThieves: i even got props from Deprived for a couple of my moves :)
assbot: [MPEX] [S.DICE] 430 @ 0.003512 = 1.5102 BTC [-]
mircea_popescu: you know in retrospect... that s.dice ipo price was judicious
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3000 @ 0.00066871 = 2.0061 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [S.DICE-PT] 36 @ 0.005455 = 0.1964 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCT:S.DICE-PT] 1D: 0.00459 / 0.00521 / 0.005455 (81 shares, 0.4 BTC), 7D: 0.00366 / 0.00452 / 0.0055 (4499 shares, 20.3 BTC), 30D: 0.00361 / 0.00525 / 0.00643 (30048 shares, 157.8 BTC)
jurov: but whole order book is 13btc bids, 18btc asks... not worth bugging deadterra about
jurov: haha i see now... and GSDPT is copletely elsewhere
jurov: the same exchange, yet one would need to engage two ops to arbitrage
jurov: why they just can't list one pt together
mircea_popescu: somebody should plot the various pt price vs mpex one day
ThickAsThieves: but in the end there has alway been variance between each PT
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 2239 @ 0.00066871 = 1.4972 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 4122 @ 0.00066869 = 2.7563 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 239 @ 0.00066868 = 0.1598 BTC [-]
fdas: toffoo, I have reasoned the same about LTC
jurov: have you looked to past performance? not every month is his exposure needed.
jurov: and if btc goes up twice again next month, some 20% loss wouldn't be so tragic
jurov: well. so there will be no options. that is the point.
jurov: happened already, no prob
gribble: There are currently 34833411 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 10285047.2026 USD in total. | Data vintage: 55.2628 seconds
thestrin1puller: you know what the Oracle says about men who say they know everything
benkay: what would your preferred implementation be, tiberiusiv?
ThickAsThieves: tib, by selling bonds he's already letting people underwrite the options
ThickAsThieves: you dont think that him losing XXXXX btc is a test of his risk management?
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 17450 @ 0.00066868 = 11.6685 BTC [-]
jurov: lol that's just some assertions, not truth
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.00323 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 282 @ 0.00323 = 0.9109 BTC [-]
jurov: obv if you come to btc in a "i know shit" fashion you'll get burned
jurov: i started trying options only after few months observations, went off well enough so far
jurov: no, you're not payng attention, i do. with iDiffs.
jurov: adn i do write mpoe options occassionally, too
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00067326 = 3.3663 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 11529 @ 0.00067327 = 7.7621 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 543 @ 0.00067469 = 0.3664 BTC [+]
Diablo-D3: wtf is ThickAsThieves even talking about
jurov: Diablo-D3: perhaps you ignore tibby?
jurov: so, thick was chatting with him
kakobrekla: the sad part is he made more than 95% too
jurov: just coinbr-managed holdings are way more than whatever you're insinuating here.
jurov: and i have no illusion that even all users combined it's one of smaller players here
jurov: *all coinbr users together i mean
ThickAsThieves: sry diablo, i got sucked into th vortex, tib is back on ignore now
jurov: sorry tibby, my insanity threshold is clearly lower than average, but you just crossed it
jurov: <tiberiusiv> mircea has lost in 1month probably more bitcoins then 95% of this channel hold combined.
Diablo-D3: mircea doesnt have more than 1000 BTC so clearly false
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 3450 @ 0.00066869 = 2.307 BTC [-]
thestrin1puller: tiberiusiv: keep talking you're making the stock shortable
kakobrekla: tiberiusiv just make sure you are on the other side of the stick and more welth to you no'
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1574 @ 0.00066869 = 1.0525 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 14726 @ 0.00066868 = 9.847 BTC [-]
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C200T] 200 @ 0.05079251 = 10.1585 BTC
jurov: ^^ let's see what will happen
jurov: lmao reddit found it itself
arij: is there a guide for options trading
arij: seems so confusing :/
jurov: but the linked page from that thread is missing... since it's referenced much, maybe MPOE-PR can update it
jurov: using MKOPT/SPLIT instead of email
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1 @ 0.00408 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [HIM] 2 @ 1.95 = 3.9 BTC [-]
assbot: [BTCTC] [GSDPT] 1948 @ 0.00409 = 7.9673 BTC [+]
thestrin1puller: Havelock is slowly becoming the berkshire hathaway of btc investments...
jurov: was going to reply "there was one already"
thestrin1puller: tiberiusiv: Havelock is a savings medium different space than the others
jurov: yes, and there was a 1GH or so future.. going quickly down to 1 satoshi
gribble: There are currently 34845084 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 10289649.6484 USD in total. | Data vintage: 115.2992 seconds
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C116T] 1 @ 0.1536719 BTC
assbot: [MPEX] [O.USD.C116T] 19 @ 0.1536719 = 2.9198 BTC
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 7 @ 0.4999 = 3.4993 BTC [+]
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [VTX] 5 @ 0.5 = 2.5 BTC [+]
taub: I don't think anyone is mad at him?
KRS1: cant always win jeez
KRS1: if u put out you need to expect to lose too
KRS1: can anyone provide advice? I am hearing more about mtgox every day and even though i dont have a lot in there, i'd like to protect what i do have..i dont use redeemable codes..do I have to pull out of gox and go with another?
KRS1: i think all the news is around the codes but im not using em
KRS1: and they're moving to the canada deal forgot the name..coin something
KRS1: prob because of the US regulation now? idk maybe im talking out my ass
jurov: KRS1 you you use it a wallet, definitely pull out by any means
jurov: *if you use it as wallet
jurov: and even if you daytrade, i'd recommend preemptively pulling before the coinlab deal goes into effect
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 1300 @ 0.00067465 = 0.877 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 5000 @ 0.00067466 = 3.3733 BTC [+]
assbot: [MPEX] [S.MPOE] 8700 @ 0.00067469 = 5.8698 BTC [+]
assbot: [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.78 = 1.56 BTC [-]
jurov: so, slovak PM is to show on a trial started by ex-PM
jurov: except that police nor anybody else know his address
jurov: bulletproof legal immunity
jurov: oh and also his office is not accepting such mail