log☇︎
926000+ entries in 0.686s
gribble: MtGox lag is 94.39232 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.189161152411 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin ten times between Jupiter and Callisto (0.12567 AU).
mircea_popescu: deadweasel i think speed limit is 55 here
jurov: we now know why do americans remove the u in colour, honour and other words.. to give to mircea
mircea_popescu: if you're a weasel from texas no wonder you're dead.
deadweasel: i'm from texas, i don't speak right.
deadweasel: we can't say it in our heads w/out a U. hell, we can't even say it. you know that.
mircea_popescu: ya i dunno why people give me all their us
deadweasel: oops, sorry about the u, stupid one hand type
deadweasel: i thought so, but never asked.
deadweasel: volume ticked up from 101000 a few hours earlier.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 233.68090, Best ask: 234.00100, Bid-ask spread: 0.32010, Last trade: 233.36000, 24 hour volume: 104028.45730655, 24 hour low: 184.58200, 24 hour high: 240.11100, 24 hour vwap: 213.48161
gribble: There are currently 0 bitcoins offered at or under 232.0 USD, worth 0.0 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0013 seconds
Bugpowder: I want to see the curves and EV
ThickAsThieves: but you can look at the %
Bugpowder: maybe I will write a little matlab toolbox for MPEX options
Bugpowder: I used to have an excel sheet that did this
Bugpowder: yah, we should plot the curves.
mircea_popescu: you need to add the entire area
mircea_popescu: the otm one breaks even slightly earlier, but the itm one spends a lot longer itm
mircea_popescu: seems a dubious way to go about things.
Bugpowder: I should really automate this analysis
ThickAsThieves: okay so in summary, what you bought breaks even at 275, and the break even for C200 is lower, yet what you bought is better?
Bugpowder: unless I KNOW where the market is going to go
mircea_popescu: you're supposed to find all sorts of bot errors and whatnot
mircea_popescu: what sort of throwing in the towel is this
Bugpowder: Thus, if a few strikes are priced 8% cheaper than others, I should buy those
Bugpowder: If mircea_popescu programmed his bot right, which I assume he did, the average EV of each strike should be roughly equal, given the population distribution of future price expectations
Bugpowder: if the price doesn't move
Bugpowder: in terms of % losses
Bugpowder: I don't know where there price will go
ThickAsThieves: for the example one
Bugpowder: is it though?
Bugpowder: your options were 8% under the bot price
ThickAsThieves: is that the best approach though?
Bugpowder: I just try buy the best 'deal'
Bugpowder: I don't really care what the curves look like
Bugpowder: the curves are steeper the higher out you go in strike
ThickAsThieves: but i'm comparing to 350
ThickAsThieves: so you'd only need price to hit 275 to make the same .08
ThickAsThieves: the break even on the bots C200T
ThickAsThieves: but even if price rises to 350
ThickAsThieves: Bug, lets take the [MPEX] [O.USD.C110T] 40 @ 0.605 = 24.2 BTC for example
jurov: fuck someone had to chose this night for pentesting coinbr
ThickAsThieves: right, theyll be in the money at 265 or so
Bugpowder: I only bought cause they were midmarket
Bugpowder: I didn't see them
mod6: well, have to figure in theta tho
mod6: (15:33) < ThickAsThieves> diminishing returns on those, no? << if the price of the underlying continues to rise, so should the CALLs regardless of strike
Bugpowder: where are they?
ThickAsThieves: diminishing returns on those, no?
ThickAsThieves: wouldnt it be better to buy higher strike price options?
ThickAsThieves: thank you whoever bought those :)
KRS1: no matter where you say it, you know that you'll be heard
KRS1: its the code word
Bugpowder: mircea_popescu: If you wouldn't mind flushing my deposit, I'd appreciate it. tx
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 237.25000, Best ask: 237.45900, Bid-ask spread: 0.20900, Last trade: 237.46000, 24 hour volume: 98777.78340359, 24 hour low: 184.58200, 24 hour high: 240.11100, 24 hour vwap: 211.72212
gribble: (bids [--under] <pricetarget>) -- Calculate the amount of bitcoin demanded at or over <pricetarget>. If '--under' option is given, find coins or at or under <pricetarget>.
mircea_popescu: at the rate mining has been going that'll be tomorrow anyway
Bugpowder: wanted to see if I could get a quick flush when it comes in
Bugpowder: I wuz thinking of depositing some more coin
topace|2: 10btc is rediculous at todays rates
jurov: topace|2: thx
topace|2: jurov: fee reduced to 1BTC
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 237.00000, Best ask: 237.10000, Bid-ask spread: 0.10000, Last trade: 237.10000, 24 hour volume: 101568.77369191, 24 hour low: 183.00000, 24 hour high: 240.11100, 24 hour vwap: 210.66450
mircea_popescu: you know that cristal stuff isn't all that grand.
thestringpuller: he be trollin, he be hatin, trynna rob us dirty
Lyspooner: 23,800 yen to buy a bitcoin
thestringpuller: tiberiusiv the troll
jurov: er... but transfers between accounts are prolly 10btc too... no help here
jurov: btw if anyone is interested to split the fee let me know
jurov: no wonder when topace allows sdice transfers in only one direction
ll: jeez that fell fast
Lyspooner: the owner of the company that produces cristal said something bad about black people, like, "i wish they wouldn't be drinking my champagne"
dub: never actually seen any cristal taht i can recall
dub: Lyspooner: thanks for that
ThickAsThieves: not al the same person
jurov: and there are supposedly some billboards with bitcoins around
Bugpowder: or traded their coins for stuff on SR.
jurov: my mother said today "oh yes i'm seeing bitcoins everywhere"
unbalanced_: jurov, that's what I mean, when you're around you do what you can to expedite. But you gotta sleep sometime.
jurov: or just the media attention completely deafened anything other
dub: 'down with the state! eat the rich! oh shit nigga im rich? break out the crystal'
jurov: they became rich and are disgusted of thmeselves?
dub: what I like about this rally is the deafening silence of the 'cryptoanarchist' brigade
unbalanced_: (I'm a small fish compared to some of the whales around here though.)
unbalanced_: jurov, I appreciate you helping out on the transfers as you have mentioned here before
ThickAsThieves: when you day trade
ThickAsThieves: its not always thats imple though
unbalanced_: It's taken me a while but I am learning to plan ahead to get BTC where I need 'em before I need 'em.
ThickAsThieves: to reduce this risk
ThickAsThieves: not that simple, i could debate more relevant angles, but i'm not interested in arguing I guess
jurov: i'm interested what they'll say.
jurov: try complaining to your bank how much you lost due to them "delaying" a wire
ThickAsThieves: tens of thousands of $?
ThickAsThieves: many of those options are already in the money
ThickAsThieves: i wonder how much potential money was lost waiting for that deposit
Doffx: As usual I was over complicating the why.
Doffx: Ugg, just read a site aout options that finally made sense to me.
mod6: ok thanks!
unbalanced_: I saw talk on the wall watcher thread about China on Sunday