813000+ entries in 0.54s
nubbins`: spent several months wondering where
the fuck
these people on
the forums were getting $2 blanks until i realized
that was a
thing of
the past
nubbins`: this was right around
the
time i started printing
nubbins`: the 2008 meltdown caused cotton prices
to skyrocket for a few months in late 2010
mircea_popescu: anyway,
that;'s a particularly well fit quote. if only
the various
twentysomething ex-geek now bitcoin financiers & investors had a financial culture.
mircea_popescu: surprisingly, it still delivers benefits way past
the 5th repetition.
mircea_popescu: that's ok, i just keep linking
the same shit over and over.
benkay: apparently i had
to read
that post 5
times before it made sense in context.
mircea_popescu: "Viewed individually, each company's capital investment decision appeared cost-effective and rational; viewed collectively,
the decisions neutralized each other and were irrational, just as happens when each person watching a parade decides he can see a little better if he stands on
tiptoes."
mircea_popescu: " Each proposal
to do so looked like an immediate winner. Measured by standard return-on-investment
tests, in fact,
these proposals usually promised greater economic benefits
than would have resulted from comparable expenditures in our highly-profitable candy and newspaper businesses."
benkay: some get
their goods at an acceptable rate and delivered on an acceptable
time, making money etc.
this drives others in who make less excellent ops decisions, ruining margin.
nubbins`: benkay:
the people buying mining hardware are falling over
themselves
trying
to get it hashing as fast as possible, so
they maximize
their returns
xoinfinityox: so accepting
that fact as
true, where is
the real war?
xoinfinityox: i know, im at a really
topical level right now
mircea_popescu: benkay well,
the hash power is designed
to be commodified.
this means it'll always sell just a shade under average cost.
benkay: or even ever, as a part of
the
thing?
benkay: nubbins`: but rational market participants won't buy if
their investment never returns, so how does unprofitable mining work forever?
mircea_popescu: xoinfinityox i guess
that may be interesting in
the sense pointing
the spot lights at airplane wrecks could be interesting. meanwhile in
the real war...
xoinfinityox: like i said, i'm a
total noob at btc but prooof
that gov'ts are mining would be a huge headline
benkay: mircea_popescu: yeah but fail
to draw
the dots
xoinfinityox: @mircea_popescu other news outlets and
tech blogs pick up gov't regulation / seizure of btc events
mircea_popescu: benkay you read
the buffett bit re commodified markets ?
nubbins`: it encourages people
to get
the hashrate climbing as fast as fucking possible
ozbot: imgur:
the simple image sharer
mircea_popescu: xoinfinityox other news outlets don't practically exist. what's out
there ?
nubbins`: halfway
through a 4-color print run
Duffer1: in
this case it's still probably worth paying attention
to
though
benkay: yeah i don't quite understand
that, mircea_popescu.
Duffer1: maybe
toffo with one o? :P
toffoo: if it
turns
there's some
truth
to
the statement, color me surprised
toffoo: I just saw
the article for
the first
time
today, when you linked it earlier..
mircea_popescu: Duffer1 yes,
that 16th of oct article linked earlier, is where it was announced.
toffoo has been asking me about whence and wherefore ever since.
mircea_popescu: <Duffer1> if confirmed i expect
the price will rocket << you know it was announced before btc rocketed ?
xoinfinityox: i'm not
trying
to argue here - still
trying
to figure out how
this market works
Duffer1: germany
timezone waking up
xoinfinityox: did
the market move based on mircea's article?
benkay: well by
the
time one waits for confirmation of a fact
the market has long since priced it in
typically
benkay: no,
they are playing
the game. you were making some sort of claim about
their goals vis-a-vis sketchiness.
xoinfinityox: a better analogy might be, you sit down and
the guy across from you is phil helmuth, or its some random guy
xoinfinityox: this isn't about strategy, its about whether
the US is playing
the game at all
benkay: why would any competent actor in
the scenario disclose
targets goals strategies or philosophies!?
benkay: wherein you derive some small benefit from knowing what i plan
to do and
the motivations behind it
benkay: we sit down
to a poker game
benkay: let's play a
thought game
xoinfinityox: i agree with you
that if
the goal is defense/intelligence/law enforcement keeping it secret is preferrable
benkay: bafflement and confusion? inability
to comprehend relevance of statement?
Duffer1: if confirmed i expect
the price will rocket
benkay: much like walmart does not hate women and want
to prevent
them from earning dollar parity with men,
the .75/1.00 ratio is
the accumulation of many individual's decisions
xoinfinityox: what's
the hypothetical effect on
the market of an announcement
that gov'ts are mining?
benkay: unless
the pentagon's doing it.
xoinfinityox: I understand mircea not wanting
to drop his sources, but I would
think you can follow an appropriations bill or something
to find
the proof
mircea_popescu: it became a definite a coupla months back, but
they had been doing it for a while.
xoinfinityox: if
they're gonna seize a couple $MM in bitcoins
toffoo: benkay only very briefly, like
the first day
benkay: didn't your name once only have one
trailing 'o',
toffoo?
toffoo: so mircea_popescu getting back
to us/china gov mining, did you just make
that up or is it based on any kind of evidence?
monolithik: i
think
that
the idea of using a memory-hard hash function (e.g. scrypt a la litecoin) is good, but not enough of a gain
to offset
the network effects of all
the infrastructure built up around btc
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo nah, davout's site is
the cannonical example opf
that.
mircea_popescu: monolithik perhaps many alt chains are futile. keeping one on hand just in case makes some sense
tho
Duffer1: there's legit innovation
that should occur, alts serve
that purpose
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: I believe Vircurex is now
the Canonical example of
the failure of RoR
to accomplish anything
benkay: what's more important is
their unifying
theme of irrelevance.
Duffer1: lower
transaction
times, different proofs work
xoinfinityox: what really distinguishes most altcoins at
this point anyway?
monolithik: thats why I
think altcoins are futile.
monolithik: (I don't
think we are disagreeing with eachother)
the best
technology doesn't always win.
The one
that is first
to market
that is un-shitty enough
to provide some value wins.
mircea_popescu: monolithik i agree, but
that means little in
the context.
mircea_popescu: but yeah, Duffer1 has a point,
trilema isn't exactly a manual, more like
that one asshole instructor in karate
that just beats
the shit out of you and
then laughs.
monolithik: mircea: I
think
that bitcoin or a direct descendant (i.e. forked from
the current chain, not some premined crap) will win. It's classic "worse is better".
mircea_popescu: sort-of like nobody figured out why ruby on rails utterly sucks until
they had
tried
to make websites in it for a few years and
they could never get one secure.
then it was pretty clear.
☟︎ mircea_popescu: monolithik exactly. also, if
there's going
to be improvements
to
the concept,
they may be discovered
this way. atm we don't really know what utterly sucks in bitcoin.
mircea_popescu: xoinfinityox hit
the bitcoin category, can't hurt anything.
mircea_popescu: that's kinda dying, really. anyway, yes, it's a good use of resources and has been for a while
to
try and specify
the code. bar
that, alternate implementations may work.
monolithik: Obviously
there are difficulties with ensuring
that
they all interoperate properly, but
that just leads
to better standardization, which is good.
xoinfinityox: what articles on
trilema are required reading for getting started with btc?
monolithik: yeah. I agree with
the need
to have multiple implementations. Right now
the main point of centralization is
the core development
team.
mircea_popescu: seems of late he's
taken
to heart
the invitation
to do less of
the speaking.