log☇︎
75600+ entries in 0.998s
DeaDTerra1: I think that right about 2.4-2.5 is as high as you could argue for
ThickAsThieves: as in there were lower asks
deadweasel: misterbigg has a bigg ego and a lot of aggressive nonsense as his modus operandi. lame.
Chaaang-Noi: btct seems slow as fuck... ddos?
inhies: as much as i hate how fast AM is exploding
mircea_popescu: as you keep jogging my memory im sure it'll happen
mircea_popescu: as it doesn't seem to justify the time expenditure
mircea_popescu: i don;'t think that can work as an automated thing. i think it has to be curated
thestringpuller: As coffeehouses were frequented a lot for the latest news.
mircea_popescu: it's a fact tho. for the past year or so kakobrekla has been acting the superservant, and as a result the chan came to dominate bitcoin discussion.
ThickAsThieves: yeah as kids we dealth in cards, candy, and cassingles
ThickAsThieves: to hear something isnt always the same as understanding it
mod6: but http://blockexplorer.com/ shows 237093 as newest block
mod6: blockchain.info shows the last block as 237088
Chaaang-Noi: i slowly sell as it goes up, so i always win, unless it goes down, and i just by more, sop i win later :)
deadweasel: i did what jcpham did for the same reasons. course it was self-fulfilling prophecy as I dumped sdice.
mircea_popescu: might explain why actual ws types aren't as worried about it as the forum variety seekrs.
mircea_popescu: as far as i know tho, it's the borrowers who come to the terms of the lender
ThickAsThieves: i just dont see it as good enough diversification or hedging, if that's your aim
kakobrekla: >Don't worry about me. This is normal (for me, at least). Finland is a good country as regards the treatment of nuts.
BitHub: asicminer as a company probably has 200th up their sleeve, just sitting there waiting
furuknap: Your thinking is not very relevant to math. What you think is about as relevant as the current weather.
gribble: Nick 'PsychoticBoy', with hostmask 'PsychoticBoy!~Psychotic@pdpc/supporter/active/psychoticboy', is identified as user PsychoticBoy, with GPG key id 06DC71AFE4DAC520, key fingerprint 9E476C16F877E988110787BC06DC71AFE4DAC520, and bitcoin address None
PsychoticBoy: as you wish
PsychoticBoy: as back up ;)
Chaaang-Noi: i think they have avalon ordered as well
Chaaang-Noi: i think cog might be a bit over valued, but im using it as a hedge
Chaaang-Noi: yeah i hold cog as a hedge against my AM, cuz they are heavy avalon and BFL
ericmuys_: furuknap: this article makes no sense. if it takes 1 GPU 1 week to mine 1 BTC it doesn't matter how much the GPU is worth in USD. what 1 BTC is worth is what matters. higher is always better unless you consider the difficulty decreasing as the price decreases. otherwise common sense is pretty good here. "When the price of Bitcoin rises, our value denominated in Bitcoin drops drastically. When the price of Bitcoin
furuknap: If you just want coins for the curiosity of it, you're not looking at profitability and might as well buy them.
furuknap: The counter-intuitive thing that miners miss is that they're arguing that they want to pay as much as possible for their coins and then sell for the same price, which doesn't make sense when you think about it.
furuknap: Think of it even simpler: You have two states of operation. One is gathering coins, the other is selling coins. When you are gathering coins, you want the price to be as low as possible and when you're selling coins, you want the price to be as high as possible.
ericmuys_: why can't the dividends continue? this thing didn't just start rising, it's been rising for months with consistently good dividends. what are you going to pull out and put it into? sdice? the funny thing about the dividends is friedcat could cash out as the price is rising and pay that as a dividend and it would be insignificant. 150 BTC * $125 = $19000. once a week, cash out 20k and pay it to the growing herd to
furuknap: Oh, I know. The herd thing is dangerous. I just hope it doesn't taint BTC assets in general as bubble shares. I fear the train may have left for AM.
furuknap: When I talk to financial people, they tend to argue that "well, buying hardware is so much of a hassle, and what if it breaks? You're left with nothing!" not realizing how a miner with some hardwre competence can fix or replace hardware as easily as they purchase an option or future.
mircea_popescu: really slow uptake. i guess that's what you get when something starts as a hobbist market : hobbists.
furuknap: That is, and I'm not joking, the topic of my next article :-) Miners have a limited understanding of finance, just as financial people have a limited understanding of mining. When I talk to miners, they seem to argue that "just holding coins is really bad if the price drops while a miner can always resell his hardware" and not understanding anything about hedges in finance.
mircea_popescu: incidentally, this may interest : http://polimedia.us/trilema/2013/how-to-hedge-as-a-miner/
furuknap: I'm not sure it is as random as that. I wrote the article based on a lot of questions asked on the Reddit forums and people universally tended to completely ignore the effect of price fluctuations of their gear. One miner had just bought around 50 GPUs and hadn't realized that when the price of LTC dropped, he actually earned more from just having that gear than from mining.
mircea_popescu: inasmuch as the mining rigs are fiat items pretty much.
mircea_popescu: you could as well say that buying mining gear is a bet on the aliens showing up and wanting to buy it for infinite money.
mircea_popescu: as far as mining is concerned, difficulty is directly connected. the btc/fiat rate is contingent.
furuknap: I'm trying to understand what I did wrong, definitely. Talking about getting married as an investment doesn't do that.
mircea_popescu: ok. inasmuch as getting married isn;t a bet on some contingent future event
Chaaang-Noi: well as much as id like to stay and fuck around im off to burma
pizzaman1337: ("ZhouTonged" as in this group: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc6Hp_Zq3rU )
fiat500: as an exchange, please dont make decisions like that on my behalf
Chaaang-Noi: <fiat500> you guys let emotion get i nthe way of money? at times yes, i use money as a tool for power....
fiat500: given a long enough time frame, btc is just as likely to be worth $1 as it is to be worth $1k
ThickAsThieves: otherwise known as evoorhees
Chaaang-Noi: fiat500 if i were you i could buy cognitive as a hedge on your AM
furuknap: In scale, it seems that 100TH is the only thing currently lined up to match AM. I threw a few coins there to see what stuck. Either it goes to zero or it works. As far as I know, neither Avalon, BFL, or the swedes have anything public.
furuknap: ...as far as we know :-)
furuknap: True, but they announced them two weeks ago. If they get the revenue paid out as dividends in two weeks, then it takes a month to sell ฿20K, or ฿5K per week, which isn't enough to sustain 0.036 per week.
furuknap: They will have to be, and I really think they will be, but the picture isn't as one-sided as everyone thinks. Right now, we're cheering that AM wins the race every week, but nobody seems to notice there is only one horse.
furuknap: But the stable income is not as high as people think it is. friedcat has said he expects 10% on average. That correlates to around 0.006 per week. From that, you need to deduct the halving effect, which is 0.005, yielding 0.001 in real ROI.
Chaaang-Noi: price of btc ehre matters as well, cuz we need to buy stuff with yuan, so higher the btc price the higher the percent of divdends
furuknap: To the extent of my abilities, it will be. It's not as much a report as a description of the method used to come to the analysis I mentioned previously.
truffles: sounds like explaining daily routines as something special..
furuknap: That's about as far as you need to go to understand "Magick". There is, of course, far more to it that that, but it doesn't involve anything supernatural or anything like that.
ThickAsThieves: i wouldnt call it magic, but I do believe that as species we almost literally capable of anything
furuknap: "The Secret" as far as I've understood, is mostly based on thelemic principles, yes. It's a bastardization as far as my peers have determined it, but I have not read it so I don't know.
furuknap: In that case, feel free to ask your questions. I'll answer as best I can.
Scrat: Firecoin2 initially began as a Feathercoin2, a joke coin created to poke fun at all the recent altcoin releases. However, after a surprisingly smooth launch, and some community support, it has been decided that this coin will relaunch as Firecoin2.
ThickAsThieves: simple as that
ThickAsThieves: as best i can
furuknap: ...or will be perceived as such. Declaration of interests make the reader aware of any bias and can evaluate the information in that light.
furuknap: truffles, if my information is biased, I will make it as clear as I possibly can.
furuknap: You are quite right. As was I :-)
furuknap: [17:14] <truffles> im viewing it as, u think ur info will be so factual that none will think otherwise > I still do not care what others think. I care about what I think.
furuknap: I'm talking to you because my statements about AM was a matter of discussion and part of that discussion was the analysis I had made that showed AM had no chance in hell to make back investments at these levels. I said I would publish those numbers but decided as a matter of fairness to instead publish a simplified method for determining it yourself.
truffles: im viewing it as, u think ur info will be so factual that none will think otherwise
ThickAsThieves: the only way to have a chance of being received as neutral
furuknap: I don't care about their perception, I care about my perception. If I come about as someone that even in the remotest of possibilities may say something for any other purpose than neutral information, I've failed and thus need to reevaluate my approach.
ThickAsThieves: as if taaki is leading a revolution of weirdos
ThickAsThieves: yeah but taaki comes of as vagrant gutter punk militia
Chaaang-Noi: you know this is not only a bitcoin irc chan, but one devoted to using it as an economy, as in the hard hard hard core of the geeks who use btc
Chaaang-Noi: i plan to sell 400 as soon as we are over 2 again
mircea_popescu: Chaaang-Noi so basically you're going to be howling about how you sold for the top just as soon as it goes down
asciilifeform: as if a fellow who can afford world-class hashing power would forgo TOR.
mircea_popescu: just as long as i say something every 100 lines the noise is under 99%.
mircea_popescu: ya names used to be BTCUSDblabla, changed when i got forced to move digits around so as not to ruin downstream code.
ThickAsThieves: otherwise known as a big old bubble
mircea_popescu: heh, some people don't have wives (tho not married but only regarding themselves as such)
kakobrekla: isnt this the same webpage as that other one
mircea_popescu: i would say there's exactly zero difference between your average bureaucrat and your average bitcoinite, such as https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=209159.msg2193424#msg2193424
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform i was commenting about how ppl will "invest" in anything just as long as itwon't work.
ThickAsThieves: iwas picked on as a child ;)
ThickAsThieves: as part of your mdel
furuknap: Was thinking about it as a thing to gain some experience running an asset. Not sure it's worth it, though.
mircea_popescu: to date i don't think any btc merchandising did well, in spite of the apparently great siotuation (as there's no ip holder to pay out)
pizzaman1337: if anyone here as at the bitcoin conf in San Jose, I'd love to meet and say hey today, just PM me
ThickAsThieves: exchanges are all listing avalon group buys as assets
mircea_popescu: Chaang-Noi it is a good company. just as soon as it's willing to go legitimate it can list.
Chaang-Noi: investments are investments, but a btc stock is not the same as apple stock and its not the same as a lotto ticket...
Chaang-Noi: he should do that as well
WILLdude: Is there anywhere I can read up on BTC investements and study the market as suggested?
blehg: mp: I'm not around much, normally logged in as aknap3, but not at that terminal right now
mircea_popescu: you actually want to piss away money on something as stupid as "who is the next idiot who thinks he's as important to bitcoin as bitcoin is to his empty life" ?
truffles: as much as i dislike silver spoons, still have to take advantage of oportunities