679900+ entries in 0.445s
mike_c: but even
that was better
tested. hypothesis was formed before
the analysis, not as a result of
the analysis.
mike_c: strategy like MPIF's is really based more on a belief about how
the system works rather
than statistical analysis.
mike_c: punkman: you can cut up
the data you have into pieces. but I really don't
think
there's enough for much confidence in results.
punkman: mike_c, wanna make some synthetic data for
testing?
mike_c: yup, i got
that. just
talking about
the fees.
TheNewDeal: I said something more like 2 BTC
to begin with
TheNewDeal: mike_c if you read what I said, I
told you
that I was NOT comfortable risking 10 BTC on coinbr/mpoe
mike_c: TheNewDeal: last comment from me, i'm really not
trying
to sell you. But
that 'tiny percentage' you were
talking about from hedge fund managers is usually 2%. which is
the same fee as coinbr in your 10 BTC example.
TheNewDeal: is
there a minimum for password protected bets?
mike_c: punkman: you should look into some of
the
theory about backtesting. like, you can't use
the same data you develop your hypothesis on
to
test your strategy.
TheNewDeal: arent you just picking and choosing past bets
that would make money?
punkman: well if
this retarded strategy can do 46% I
think I got some margin for error
moiety: how can you be wrong wanting
to earn your money XD
moiety: nothing wrong with
that, i'm same
TheNewDeal: the
thing I also like about bitbet is
that you can pick off bets
that are almost for sure winners, and look for a certain return
mike_c: except kako, who won't
take any money unless he
thinks he earns it (very un-hedge fund like)
punkman: just
testing over past bets
TheNewDeal: punkman, have you done
this successfully?
TheNewDeal: usually is a
tiny percentage of what
they manage
mike_c: hm. hedge fund managers get a fee
too.
TheNewDeal: I would prefer
that he were like a hedge fund manager, making % off your winnings
mike_c: how would you feel if
the monthly fee were lower and
the
trading fees higher?
TheNewDeal: what I would really like
to do is start off with 2 or so BTC until I feel comfortable with it
mike_c: ok. lemme ask
this
then. if you
thought you could get a 20% return on coinbr in a year, would you invest 10 btc?
TheNewDeal: coinbr is restricted
to MPOE stocks, and I'm very unfamiliar with
them compared
to
those who
trade
assbot: BitBet - 1BTC >= $10,000 USD :: 75 B (15%) on Yes, 415.18 B (85%) on No | closing in 5 months 22 hours | weight: 42`696 (100`000
to 1)
mike_c: but you would be comfortable putting
that much on bitbet?
mike_c: ok. so point #1, you
think it's
too expensive. but why wouldn't you be comfortable putting in 10 btc?
TheNewDeal: with NO withdrawls,
that has just
taken 1/4 of my profits over a year
TheNewDeal: subtract account management fees, and
thats 10.76
TheNewDeal: let's say I am comfortable investing 10 BTC
through coinbr ( I'm not)
mike_c: i'm not
trying
to bust balls, i'm honestly curious.
mike_c: ;;gettrust
TheNewDeal jurov
mike_c: you
think coinbr is
too much counterparty risk?
TheNewDeal: I
trading what I own and owning what I
trade
TheNewDeal: staying far from coinbr for
the
time being
mike_c: coinbr is full featured
these days.
TheNewDeal: would love
to, but just not my reality
TheNewDeal: I don't have
the capital
to
trade on mpoe
TheNewDeal: and
those people were probably just looking at pot odds
mike_c: all i'm saying is, if you
think you have an edge, whip up some IDIFF.SEP contracts.
TheNewDeal: after 84'000 weight,
there were only 2 Yes bets
TheNewDeal: The majority of
those
that bet Yes on May bet early
mike_c: k. betting
that difficulty won't double in a month is not "betting against diff"
mike_c: ok, so with your superior prognostication, what weight did you get on
the may bet?
TheNewDeal: mike_c , what I'm saying is
that some people don't know how
to calculate a good difficulty
benkay: lol ya diff is watching bitbet just
to fuck people who bet against it
mike_c: TheNewDeal: everyone says
that because 1) you can't draw a line from previous diff changes
to future (see moore's law), and 2) despite
this it just keeps marching up.
benkay: TheNewDeal:
that
TSLA bet is interesting - aren't we p.close
to 250 already?
assbot: BitBet - Cardano
to Ship in 2014 :: 1.08 B (96%) on Yes, 0.05 B (4%) on No | closing in 6 months 1 week| weight: 85`913 (100`000
to 1)
moiety: not
the smallest window of
time XD but i'll wait patiently :]
benkay: but also probably after
the cardano ships
moiety: firefox just lost five pieces of work
that ive been doing for past
two days, so pissed off
benkay: aaaand i may not even use a cacheing layer at
the end of
the day
punkman: guy's doing some good
there with
that Jepsen
thing
benkay: decision made
thank you punkman
TheNewDeal: part of
the bet requires an actual decent estimate on what
the diff will be at
that point
TheNewDeal: tried
to make a little hedge bet on with
the next change and it backfired in my face
TheNewDeal: I wouldn't mind if
the hash jumped off a cliff right now
TheNewDeal: this current potential change and
the last
BingoBoingo: mike_c:
This is a
troubling increase in hash
TheNewDeal: yes but
this would have been a different situation, as bitcoin was $1000+ at
the
time
benkay: hang on i may be a few
too beers deep
to keep
track of my +/- axes
TheNewDeal: I don't
think
the dealeship would allow your
to return it for
the same amount of btc
Mats_cd03: you
think dealerships have
the freedom
to hold btc?
benkay: wow
there's a fucking hack
assbot: Man Buys $103K
Tesla Model S With Bitcoin
Mats_cd03: in practical
terms it ends up converted
to fiat anyway
benkay: i guess
that's what you get when you sell directly -
the freedom
to
take whatever
kakobrekla: afaik you can buy
tesla with btc (buttstamp guys didit)
benkay: anyone with
the btc
to lay on a
tesla can lay
the cash on it, and probably more easily.
TheNewDeal: benkay
totally confused me for a second
there
Mats_cd03: you'd
think he was jesus preparing
to
take
the believers
to live on mars
Mats_cd03: people are unreasonable when it comes
to musk
TheNewDeal: QE is definitely pumping
the stocks at
the moment
benkay: whats
the qt you're
talking about - not
the UI kit?
TheNewDeal: holy shit.
Tesla was at 30$ last year?