471800+ entries in 0.256s
ben_vulpes: as with dance, sex, wine, etc. skin in
the game as a prerequisite for competence.
ben_vulpes: the only way
to get good at it is
to do it.
isaackl: ben_vulpes: indeed. even smart people fuck
this shit up
ben_vulpes: isaackl: your 'wallet' experiment also suffers from
the inescapable existence of ease of use and security of cryptographic goods at opposite poles.
isaackl: To be clear, I wasn't proposing
to make such a
thing.
mircea_popescu: what's next, if you could make a bomber plane
that could get
through china's defenses
then
that'd increase demand for planes ?
ben_vulpes: what's scaring people off (which is unimportant, but let's pretend for a moment) is
the horrendous shitpile
that
the bitcoin source actually is.
mircea_popescu: isaackl you really
think i depend on you
to make me
the
tools
that
the universe requires for my survival ?
isaackl: What I'm getting
to is, if you can make a secure wallet
that's easy
to use for, say,
the peter schiffs of
the world,
that increases
the demand for bitcoin, no?
mircea_popescu: the monopoly on violence problem makes everyone unable
to actually hold gold.
ben_vulpes: besides, securing physical
things comes down
to guns.
ben_vulpes: assuming
that you can even amass a quantity of
the real stuff, and aren't playing with paper.
isaackl: ben_vulpes: yeah. another pro
to btc
mircea_popescu: unrelatedly, for
the journos and other news fiends watching
the log : i came
to a resolution of a major sticking point re
the rsa factorisation
thing, large article coming in a few hours.
isaackl: Clearly not
this universe. And gold has
the advantage
that people have millenia of experience securing physical
things. Bitcoin can be more secure
than gold, if you know what you're doing. But people lose wallets, forget passwords, choose crackable keys, etc
isaackl: And in
the universe where everyone with USD is a hyper-rational optimal investor, bitcoin
takes over.
isaackl: Anyway, all I was getting
to is
that in
the long run, even gold is softer
than bitcoin
mircea_popescu: anyway, all
this given here
to underscore
the fact
that
this shit is really fucking complex,
to
the point of excluding most specialists, let alone amateurs.
ben_vulpes: difference between what one expects
the monetary base
to do and what it's actually doing?
isaackl: Because
the mining rate is known in advance and already priced in?
mircea_popescu: obviously before bitcoin nobody even understood
that
there is ANOTHER kind of real inflation, and
thus
therefore
the real inflation from before is actually yet another kind of nominal inflation
mircea_popescu: Estimated Percent Change: -2.76227 <<
that
thing is
the last
term.
mircea_popescu: bitcoin inflation over an interval equals
the mined coins over
that interval divided by
the average monetary mass during
that interval plus
the percent change over
that interval.
isaackl: What is
this, a Google interview?
ben_vulpes: my problem is finding
the
things
that fit in my head
mircea_popescu: ben_vulpes yup. cultural archeology is
the superset, antrhopology being
the application. it's what
the wise do with
their
time.
isaackl: mircea_popescu: OK,
to connect it
to reality. Sovereign wealth fund, has a lot of USD. Realises USG is shaky and wants
to diversify. How do
they decide how much
to allocate
to gold or bitcoin?
ben_vulpes: "this coordinate system is highly unportable, and it always ended up being an intermediate stage
to some other coordinate system.
Thus
this coordinate system has been exorcised and should be avoided in
the future. JPM 1-29-91" << i am actually growing
to love software archaeology
mircea_popescu: isaackl come up with
the formula for bitcoin inflation, i'm curious.
isaackl: Then gold will quite possibly win
the runaway effect.
The gold mining rate is a constant 1.5% or so a year, so post a few more reward halvings bitcoin has
the advantage
mircea_popescu: isaackl
the idea being
that your representation of
this
thing is manufactured for
the needs of representation. it's what
they call a didacticism, with no actual connection
to reality. bad way
to
think.
mircea_popescu: very smart chicks develop
the same, because of
the same, only different but in
the end
the same.
mircea_popescu: it's
the blessing of suck, you know ? very beautiful (and i mean, VERY, stunner beautiful) chicks develop early adolescence dementia because of all
the insane sexual attention
they get and don't really want, need, or know what
to do with.
isaackl: No, just
the aggregate decisions of people with lots of USD. If 60% choose
to buy gold and 40% choose
to buy btc
ben_vulpes: poor
thing, no wonder she's spending her life in my little pony chans
mircea_popescu: ben_vulpes intel has her photo, at 16 and current. looks a little
tranny.
isaackl: Currency is a schelling point. People with lots of USD start buying bitcoin, eventually
there's a runaway effect
mircea_popescu: isaackl what's
this, like an exam of sorts ?
the heavenly
throne is holding a vote
to replace
the old usd with a spiffy young fellow ?
ben_vulpes: mircea_popescu: yeah i'm going
to find her photo and
then doxx her
isaackl: My reasoning was,
there's multiple candidates
to unseat
the USD. RMB, Gold, BTC
trinque: ben_vulpes: hoard ye all PDFs
that can be found!
isaackl: OK, unlike justJanne I'm very willing
to have my youthful derpiness forcefully removed
isaackl: This is indeed why I spend my
time right now just researching
mircea_popescu: 1) find some group you respect ; 2) work on
their ideas ; 3)
there is no 3. you will have ideas, yes, but you'll never have
to
try and sell
them like noobs with "my film idea" in hollywood.
☟︎ mircea_popescu: leaving alone how "concrete idea" is a contradiction in
terms.
mircea_popescu: trick question, wasn't one per se. but
the idea is why
the fuck do you
think you're having ideas ?
mircea_popescu: if you can do something useful, do it. if not, relax and watch
the show.
ben_vulpes: it's late, sense of humor got burned out at
tango
tonite
isaackl: Hypothetical example: a hyper-secure bitcoin wallet
that's easy enough for a Warren Buffet
to use. Maybe not actually possible, but if it existed, much more wealth would flow into bitcoin, no?
gribble: justJanne was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 16 hours, 8 minutes, and 45 seconds ago: <justJanne> Anyway, I'm sorry, but I don't have much
time arguing with people like you stupidly about fictional politics.
ben_vulpes: where'd
the 55 yo steelworker get off
to
ben_vulpes: nobody can do anything
to increase
the value of btc as an investment. it's here, it's queer, nobody's changing it.
isaackl: Sensible bitcoin businesses are
those
that increase
the value of btc as an investment (not user adoption or
transaction volume or anything like
that
isaackl: (i.e., after a few more reward halvings mean less coin is being dumped on
the market by miners, speculators have been burned enough
times
that more coin is held by long-term investors and volatility drops a bit)
isaackl: Well,
taking
the
thesis
that
the real value of bitcoin is as an inflation hedge, and
that funds will increasingly flow into bitcoin as people realise
this
isaackl: I'm just derping around in
Thailand, riding motorbikes, and reading up on finance, cryptography and bitcoin
isaackl: "cynical" but also, in
the long-run, impractical
isaackl: Last gig was freelancing for another startup (curiously, also backed by a16z and qualcomm).
Their big product was an Android emulator, lots of users, crazy schemes
to
try and monetize
them
isaackl: Indeed, my guess was Balaji raised on buzzword bingo (blockchain
technologee! IoT!) and
then groped around for an actual plan
punkman: 21 seems like a reasonable chumpatron
to me
ben_vulpes: the days of
thousand+ coin scams are nowhere near past us,
they're just denominated in dollars now.
ben_vulpes: 21 doesn't pass
the even-barely-making-sense
test.
ben_vulpes: overt "greater fool
theory" investments everywhere.
ben_vulpes: dude
the entire vc space is incredibly cynical
isaackl: Yeah, I figured
that as
the most likely null hypothesis
ben_vulpes: are you familiar with
the buckshot approach
to "investment" common in startuplandia?
isaackl: 21.co (and
their a16z backers) on paper seem
too smart
to be useful idiots
ben_vulpes: are you familiar with
the notion of "useful idiots"?
ben_vulpes: the waterfall was
the windmill-tilt at driving
the price
to zero
isaackl: So who are
the 5%, how has USG compromised
them
isaackl: I would still bet
that 95% of bitcoin startup guys are
true believers
ben_vulpes: isaackl: see
the copious historical
threads on how fiat-backed forays into bitcoin are more-or-less raiding parties for
the US
Treasury
isaackl: I.e., how many of
the VC-funded "crypocurrency! blockchain!" startups have realised
the optimal move is simply
to hoard bitcoin?
isaackl: Or do
they actually believe
that stuff and know are desperately looking
to put
their VC bezzlebucks
to good use
isaackl: Is
there 'bitcoin is a protocol' stuff a cynical ploy
isaackl: A bit at odds with
their plan
to leach electricity off consumers for mining
assbot: Logged on 13-05-2015 21:42:17; asciilifeform: re: '21' etc >> 'The cornerstone of
the strategy as presented would have been
the release of consumer products
that would
turn power from wall sockets into bitcoin
through
the widespread dissemination of bitcoin mining chips.' << -somebody- clearly reads
the 2013 #b-a logs.
isaackl: Figured since I've actually read a decent amount of
trilema.com and
the b-a logs I should finally join
the chan
isaackl: I was reading
the epic conversation with justJanne