414800+ entries in 0.16s
mircea_popescu: if it were 3.1x, even less than nobody would be underwriting it.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves you are not reading it seems. CURRENTLY, at 2.9x, NOBODY is underwrtiting it.
mircea_popescu: jurov dividends are shown as the sum of div transactions in mpex.
mircea_popescu: i'm not increasing collateral maargin for the simple reason that even as it is underwriting is dismal.
mircea_popescu: ie, a case where diff increases > 3x during 3 months. this isn't normal.
mircea_popescu: of course i am. this is exactly what we have here, an extreme
mircea_popescu: then the system "would work" in all fringe cases, except nobody will depost 1k btc for a 1btc contract
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves listen : i could make minimum collateral 1000x.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves i have no idea. prolly, if any serious hash is delivered.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves hopefully the network stabilises and we'll be fine.
mircea_popescu: but otherwise it imposes a capital burden on underwriters. so it is guesswork
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves obviously it's a trade-off. 2.9 might not be optimal in some fringe cases
mircea_popescu: if you don't know what diff was you can't trade futures
mircea_popescu: jurov like, if you don't know what btc/usd is you can't trade options
mircea_popescu: that's exactly it : you know you won't get less than x.
mircea_popescu: so each and every single contract has to be specified independently.
mircea_popescu: no example. if you make contracvts any way you want, what's the buyer supposed to buy ?
mircea_popescu: you will only get ~half of what you originally thought you will get.
mircea_popescu: and someone makes a contract now which is 0.46 covered
mircea_popescu: now if you had bought a contract back in july thinking it's 4.95 covered
mircea_popescu: how much should someone have to pay per option at that date ?
mircea_popescu: if you create one X.IDIFF.MAR future, you will have to pay 2.9**4*.07 as collateral.
mircea_popescu: because executions must be allocated uniformly to old and new contracts.
mircea_popescu: think about it : today someone makes a 4 quarters out option
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves it's not just a simple matter of a field.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves ya well, there's no practical way to disclose top exposure tho.
mircea_popescu: thanks to bug's support tesla is about to buy apple :D
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves minimal coverage is discolosed tho, that's what that contract is there for.
mircea_popescu: much more concerning would be the possibility diff doesn't go over 13.75mn by july tho
mircea_popescu: Unlike other futures X.IDIFF.* will require 2.9x the difficulty at last settlement for each quarter out, so for instance if traded in January 2013 X.IDIFF.MAR will require 0.097735278 BTC per contract as collateral whereas X.IDIFF.DEC will require 2.383665695 BTC per contract as collateral (all numeric examples based on 3370182 as last settlement difficulty value).
mircea_popescu: ;;later tell bugpowder : here's an idea : make hashing processors out of dragonfly brains.
mircea_popescu: at least jesse powell is not *completely* out of the financial loop
mircea_popescu: "BOOM. While you've been out poppin' bottles with models, the Payward team has been slaving away at a proper exchange for arbitrary cyborg-alien currencies of the future, and bitcoin."