409600+ entries in 0.12s
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder in the end it all boils down to "it's an -ev game" and "everybody thinks they're special".
mircea_popescu: we're talking net inflows, the fact someone makes bets worth 10 btc on s.dice doesn't mean he has bet a total over 1 btc
mircea_popescu: dub most of the trades count as wash trades in this perspective.
mircea_popescu: probably. if by long term one means more than a year or a few.
mircea_popescu: let's look at this past week (dear lord, it is ONE WEEK) from a macro perspective. buncha noobs poured 20-25 mn into the fiat/btc exchanges. miners took out a few mn of that, exchanges took out a few mn out of that too as fees.
mircea_popescu: conversely, the nature of people is to infer patterns in chance.
mircea_popescu: well, that's the nature of chance. sometimes it works.
mircea_popescu: the only problem is that it doesn't work longterm. might as well play s.dice.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder meaningful, as in having a price signal. you're currently unable to make any sort of judgement as to what bitcoin price should be other than "what are others thinking"
mircea_popescu: i know your goal is to try and speculate, but this makes you not part of bitcoin in any meaningful sense.
mircea_popescu: i don't imagine a recoupling is ever likely at any rate.
mircea_popescu: the mtgox "market" is very decoupled from economic reality, as it happens.
mircea_popescu: buncha noobs got tjhemselves into a tizzy. nobody really caresd.
mircea_popescu: the 1% or so bitcoins that are held by noobs really don't matter in any serious discussion.
mircea_popescu: the vast majority of bitcvoin holders don't give a shit what the price is.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder you're making the mistake of thinking "people" are like you.
mircea_popescu: basically you can't initiate a sepa wire except from an european bank or subsidiary
mircea_popescu: thuis is kinda the advantage of vbeing american/english
mircea_popescu: yes culture has to be written. else it's maybe civilisation
mircea_popescu: culture mostly means written shit 500 years old or older.
mircea_popescu: it's not dreadful. it's sort of like hm... virginia maybe.
mircea_popescu: there;'s evenb a freenode romanian server what arte you talkin' about
mircea_popescu: anyway, i'd love to stay and chat but i'm due in some meetings. we continue later.
mircea_popescu: mostly the drop triggered what looks more like safety than actual pricing assumptions
mircea_popescu: anyway. the bot's pricing algo is proprietary, yes. i don't see why it wouldn't be.
mircea_popescu: ezdiy you know, there have been 10k btc single orders on mpex.