409000+ entries in 0.15s
mircea_popescu: so there's not one but actually two different doods doing a bitcoin pixel page + bitcoin gem thing
mircea_popescu: the 2nd is a 100px wide rendition of the "swiss dinar"/usd rate
mircea_popescu: well... ok, formally : it contains no tables and a total of 3 figures in 28 pages. the third is a 100px wide rendition of the "bitcoin supply schedule" in 6 data points.
mircea_popescu: sometimes i wonder if humanities departments have ever read an actual scientific paper.
mircea_popescu: this "Synthetic Commodity Money" "paper" is singurarly ignorant/uninformed/unscientific/laughable and ridiculous
mircea_popescu: is that we've managed to switch from a drama powered to a drama-and-comedy-gold powered model.
mircea_popescu: if the bet is "stock will be over x on y day" then y-3 works juyst fine i guess
mircea_popescu: well depends on the bet. bitbet has a 7 to 3 day interval settable iirc
mircea_popescu: if you review closed bets, the system as it is works superbly to discourage the tail betting.
mircea_popescu: people kinda complain about too much weight for early bets tho
mircea_popescu: can you prove there exists some manner to select the better curve ?
mircea_popescu: however we couldn't find a way that was both intuitive for non-math people to specify and practicable in a web interface.
mircea_popescu: zebedee_ i doubt it too. the original plan was to allow curve definition at bet introduction
mircea_popescu: which is, of course, "sing o goddess the anger of achilles"
mircea_popescu: aeide would be some sort of praise, tell the story of,
mircea_popescu: on the other, it's fully setable, min can be 100k or anything down to 1
mircea_popescu: ie, bet says what your wright is, and what the minimum is
mircea_popescu: the fact that either side is still +EV seems pretty good to me. means if you have a conviction you can still take a side.
mircea_popescu: why would you be betting both sides 95% of the time in ?
mircea_popescu: basically you can make a little % by financing the odds. so you can pretty much run a line bookie thing on top of bitbet.
mircea_popescu: anyway. there's incentive for you to do this type of bet (ie, a marketmaking bet) early in the bet's life.
mircea_popescu: the good news being that you're guaranteed half your money back no matter what
mircea_popescu: 0.2475 * curr_weight * (no_pool/yes_weight + yes_pool/no_weight) + .495
mircea_popescu: alrgiht so we have confirmation on the numbers at least.
mircea_popescu: i get 1.04 and 1.24 must be you made your calc at earlier weight ?
mircea_popescu: this is what i'm saying, things are what they are not what some dood gleaned from 15 minutes of skimming wikipedia.
mircea_popescu: "The Opening Auction will occur at the Indicative Match Price — the price at which the maximum volume of orders is executable at the time of the auction"
mircea_popescu: even if it's a situation of loaded book, they're settled by fixing
mircea_popescu: not even him. but that's okay cause he goes back and puts an "usually" in paranthesis there. problem fixed.
mircea_popescu: who the fuck even heard of exchange settling a 80 bid and 90 ask at 85 ?!
mircea_popescu: therefore let me tell you how things are and how'd they be better"
mircea_popescu: what offends me is this "i am a teenage cock with no experience whatsoever
mircea_popescu: kids often do this, "what if i were the emperor of Rome" or "what if i was the only person in town" etc.