397800+ entries in 0.266s
psztorc: I should edit
that because PT did finish reviewing it.
assbot: Searching pgp.mit.edu for key with fingerprint: 16C81597E76E86E6C01EF037AA4B3330F162C410.
This may
take a few moments.
assbot: That does not seem
to be a valid fingerprint.
psztorc: Well I
tried
to do it when I discovered your blog, which was like last autumn.
mircea_popescu: well what do you want me
to do.
they don't, per se, have a liquidity problem, not being
the sort of
thing
that may have a liquidityy problem.
they simply have no relation
to liquidity whatsoever.
pete_dushenski: ary.
The vehicle could otherwise interpret
the
test procedure as a dangerous situation or malfunction, activating
traction control or stability control. By enabling a
test mode,
the vehicle will be able
to operate during
the
test process. Once
the
test is complete and
the car is restarted,
the car reverts
to its normal function. And once
the cars are in on-the-road mode, nitrogen oxide levels increased by 10
to
assbot: Logged on 18-09-2015 18:54:21; pete_dushenski: either a) when anything plugs into
the obd-ii port, or b)
the whole
thing is a parallel construction
to keep ze germans at bay against
tbtf 'domestics'
pete_dushenski:
http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=18-09-2015#1278736 <<
turns out
that i was off
the mark here.
to wit : "Emissions system and fuel economy
testing is conducted while a vehicle is placed on a dynamometer—think of it as a
two big rollers or a
treadmill—rather
than driving on
the road.
The vehicle has only its driving wheels rolling (the front ones, in
the case of VW vehicles). But
the rear
tires are station
☝︎☟︎ psztorc: I
thought I had, like a year ago. Does it expire or something?
mircea_popescu: how about you get registered in assbot so i can give you a rating so i don't have
to keep doing
the upping.
mircea_popescu: didn't help
them, especially once
they didn't have
the capital.
mircea_popescu: understand : rules are generally powerless.
the soviets had rules about how capital should be allocated.
mircea_popescu: im not entirely sure what "market scoring rules" are. but by
the excel reference i vaguely expect a bayesian atrocity.
mircea_popescu: you know,
the abbreviation happens
to already have a meaning, in
the space.
psztorc: Feel free
to use your fast knowledge
to evade more questions : )
psztorc: Do you believe
that MSRs have a liquidity problem?
psztorc: And yet, you change
the subject so frequently.
mircea_popescu: ie, your attempt
to get fatties laid already suffers from
the "wide area low height" problem. putting a coin on
top of
this is just crushing it into oblivion, and going exactly
tyhe opposite directionm of solving it.
mircea_popescu: all
this in an attempt
to solve poorly an already solved problem (solved by centralization).
mircea_popescu: this is not a question, it is a statement of fact. counterintuitively, perhaps (not sure why, but
this only happens
to some people), your addition of a coin
to
the problem has in fact worsened your efficiency, by introducing a significant friction factor.
mircea_popescu: unlike in my example, where i scrubbed off all incidentals
that may hide
the matter.
mircea_popescu: understand,
the scenario is in no sense astonishing or at all unlikely.
the scenario repeats itself 100% of
the
time in your model, just, you're not usually well instrumented
to notice
this.
mircea_popescu: so your liquidity has a problem in simply materializing from
the, if you'll excuse
the pun,
the ether ?
psztorc: You're
the only one who did anything.
psztorc: In
that astonishingly unlikely scenario, no one.
psztorc: Well
then you lose all of your coins...
mircea_popescu: there's not gonna be any sort of solar eclipse
tomorrow.
psztorc: You
traded 1 mn coins for 1 mn shares
mircea_popescu: where will
ten billion coins spring for
to liquidate my position ?
mircea_popescu: and i expect
to see fair liquidity. say 10k
to 1 against me.
mircea_popescu: i really don't care what
they cost. i am
taking
them all.
psztorc: As will your 2nd and all
the rest.
psztorc: If you really own all
the coins, and you didn't put any in
the middle, your first share of Yes will cost you 1.
mircea_popescu: for instance : when i put 1 btc on
the
theory
that ethereum dies by
the end of
the year, i got liquidated 5:1 within hours.
mircea_popescu: now, suppose i make a bet
that
tomorrow will be a solar eclipse.
psztorc: A given claim is more likely
to be false if only one person has assessed it.
mircea_popescu: but as
to
the experiment : suppose your coin exists. suppose it has a
total issued volume of 1mn coins. suppose i own
them all, because i'm an asshole and i buy
them all.
mircea_popescu: i mean srsly nobody cares if you came up with it or clark gable did.
that's not at issue. and in general "original research" is even a
topic only among
the wikitards. it's not a legitimate consideration.
mircea_popescu: i'm kinda puzzled why
the problem is not directly obvious.
psztorc: Again
this isn't something I made up, a physicist designed it like 15 years ago and it is currently being used in a few places. With play money at SciCast.
psztorc: If
they pay
the right amount,
the
trade goes
through, otherwise it does not.
psztorc: People propose updates
to
the share quantity, and can locally calculate how
the account [2] would have
to change.
psztorc: The derivative of [1] share quantity happens
to be
the prices.
psztorc: The
traders, although you can put some money in
the middle (which you'll lose)
to create...
psztorc: MSRs are a formula which relate [1]
the current quantity of outstanding shares (of mutually-exclusive states)
to [2] an account filled with money.
mircea_popescu: or you could keep it simple, and explain why your excel spreadsheet isn't hard at work finding boyfriends for all
the very fat lonely feminists out
there.
psztorc: I could link
to a pdf on market scoring rules
psztorc: This has nothing
to do with
that.
psztorc: That isn't post structuralism... PS is when
the audience is supposedly more important
than
the author's
text or intent.
mircea_popescu: whence in
the everloving fuck will you summon into existence counters for all
the solo
traders
trading with no one ?
mircea_popescu: fiat, delta knowledge on valuation. i doubtr you'll find anyone who even will entertain
the approach, within finance. but moving on :
mircea_popescu: uhm. what ungodly sort of post structuralist lacanian approach
to finance is
this supposed
to be!
mircea_popescu: and you're like, almost
there, and all i do is recite
that and laugh. you're out on your ass.
mircea_popescu: suppose you're in a VC office
trying
to close a deal. and i drop by
to
take
the guy out
to golf.
mircea_popescu: because if i want
to sink your chances, understand, all i need is
to quote
this and snicker.
mircea_popescu: "My design was able
to solve a few other PM-problems as well. Any user can create a market about anything, removing
the dual-requirement
that a PM-administrator must not only be
trustworthy, but also share your prediction-interests. Market scoring rule
technology ensures
that
trading volume is irrelevant, and
traders will always be able make a
trade updating
the price
to
their estimation (even if
they are
the only
trad
psztorc: Hey, when you wanted
to read Satoshi's pdf whitepaper, did you like ask a friend
to print it out for you or something?
psztorc: Well we have
to compare apples
to apples don't we?
mircea_popescu: ok, sure, for a given level, as long as
that level is very high,
they are in fact cheaper.
psztorc: Also, I'm sure you've heard of
the Lightning Network.
psztorc: For a given level of security,
the payments are now cheaper.
mircea_popescu: it's ironclad, sure. but a
tank has not very good fuel economy.
mircea_popescu: the entire "bitcoin is efficient"
thing is very 2010s naivete. it is anything but.
mircea_popescu: ement device is BY FAR
the most expensive, cumbersome and unwieldy mechanism for settlement ever devised. it was not even feasible
to contemplate before computing and major bandwidth was available.
mircea_popescu: "Although Bitcoin does not solve our PM problems, it demonstrates
that a blockchain can provide scalable, censorship-resistant, and
trustless solutions. Blockchain solutions also generate efficiency by cutting out middlemen and avoiding overhead costs (no brick-and-mortar, compliance, administration, etc.)." <<
this is miserable. what exactly is "solutions" supposed
to mean ? and more importantly :
the blockchain settl
psztorc: And
the sentence I wrote was
to explain exactly why "proofs of solvency" are insufficient (which you have just restated)
mircea_popescu: the only
thing "proofs" will do is make people optimize for
the exam.
that is all.
psztorc: Of course, as I'm sure you know, "credit" comes from
the latin "cred-" for "belief/faith"
mircea_popescu: the notion
that "proving" "solvency" which is
to say, having money may somehow buy character, and on it
trust.
mircea_popescu: "Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it...Because a man I do not
trust could not get money from me on all
the bonds in Christendom."
psztorc: I'm afraid I couldn't find
the definition.
mircea_popescu: anyway,
the jpm
thing is more important, so let's get back
to
that for a second.
the matter was put
to him, in a congressional hearing, "Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?"
mircea_popescu: much
to
the disbelief of
the entire collected "foundation" & assorted jesuses, captains of industry and whatnots.
mircea_popescu: anyway : consider
that when mp said mtgox goes away, mtgox actually went away.
mircea_popescu: but no,
the various hanger ons
trying
to insinuate
themselves in bitcoin do not by
this desire actually become part of
the
thing.
psztorc: that's a lot more
than MPEX's volume
mircea_popescu: these claims must be novel. ever since
they forgot
to mention how shockingly little
they processed for "black friday"
psztorc: And BitPay claims
to process over 100,000 Bitcoin per month