4200+ entries in 0.104s
mjrIII: but i don't want to speculate on the rise and fall of btc prices, i just want to arbitrage
mjrIII: but if i CAN, maybe i can make some money
mjrIII: so anyway, i think that the options are really expensive, but it seems to be working for mp, so i understand why he wouldn't offer it cheaper
mjrIII: is that not called a movie?
mjrIII: well, given vol of 50, that option should cost $3 or so
mjrIII: so i looked at the one month in which volatility was the greatest
mjrIII: and that is still around 23
mjrIII: so i looked at the deviation from the mean for each closing month
mjrIII: not only on a daily basis (much lower, but irrelevant for a monthly option)
mjrIII: by the way, to calculate the volatility, i looked at historical data over the last year
mjrIII: which is probably why namworld said he'd be interesting in buying at .05
mjrIII: that put should cost around... .0466 btc
mjrIII: by the way, using my calculated volatility for bitcoin
mjrIII: to figure out how hedged I am, i need to calculate the total value of my position over different prices btc/usd
mjrIII: so...selling puts at .1 could be interesting
mjrIII: and yeah, i'd be selling them via mpex
mjrIII: curious as to interest levels
mjrIII: what if i offered it at .15
mjrIII: for example, i think the 68put is around .3 btc to buy
mjrIII: and then there is the rolling forward return of the futures contract, which is extremely weird
mjrIII: and also, since it is not possible to know how many bitcoins i would need as collateral, there is a little uncertainty in ROI
mjrIII: it gets complicated when you start evaluating profits in btc vs profits in usd
mjrIII: since i profit from the future's contract if the price goes down, as long as my premium is at a certain price, i won't lose money in the total portfolio though i lose on the put, my future should hedge me
mjrIII: for example, if i sell the future, i could sell a put
mjrIII: how covered am I if i sell an option that moves inversely
mjrIII: expiring at months end
mjrIII: if i sell a futures contract at the current price
mjrIII: but i am still working out the numbers
mjrIII: and that would be where my delta hedging comes in
mjrIII: but, if i can sell options, at a much more lower price, i should be able to collect a decent amount of bitcoin
mjrIII: because of these huge premiums
mjrIII: based on a few different calculations, i think the MAX volatility is 50
mjrIII: while bitcoin is volatile, it isn't that volatile
mjrIII: right now, the implied volatility of the options at the prices currently quoted is 300
mjrIII: i am looking to delta hedge positions so i can sell options
mjrIII: i've been doing financial calculations all night and i am so confused
mjr_: who is the one on reddit?
mjr_: check out buttonwood_advanced.meteor.com
mjr_: kakobrekla: you around?
mjr_: i would "recommend" reading REAMDE, it talks a lot about such things and I hope this becomes something like that
mjr_: by introducing monetization
mjr_: and i think you are doing that
mjr_: if you capture a small portion of WoW players in china it will be a smashing success
mjr_: that is a great strategy
mjr_: i like this already
mjr_: hmmm, so would it be potentially possible to profit by playing?
mjr_: where can i read about it?
mjr_: or should i say, 24hvwap
mjr_: yeah so its abs value of the difference between strike and current
mjr_: call is what... y = (x-strike)/strike ?
mjr_: but couldn't remember the put equation
mjr_: was trying to graph the function
mjr_: whats the equation for puts again?
mjr_: does anyone have bugpowders spreadsheet?
mjrIII: dude, asicminer share price is crazy
mjr_: would it be premium - (x) with x being the amount you have to pay out
mjr_: does anyone know the function that would map out the return from selling a put or call?
mjr_: without affecting the underlying
mjr_: its weird though, you can bid up the price of the pass through
mjr_: approaching dividends?
mjr_1: i used to love kiting strong people
mjr_1: hunters are the best
mjr_1: if anyone is a berliner
mjr_1: berlin is starting saturday
mjr_1: and yes, mt gox is increasingly irrelevant