log☇︎
236500+ entries in 2.362s
BingoBoingo: Ah, there's the problem. We're looking at different things. You have a large stake in a probable bet, and I'm willing to offer a hedge so you can avoid a total loss. I'd be willing to unload part of my position, but... I am not an insurance company.
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: The Bitbet.py numbers are a bit off for these new bets because it figures the new sum into the No pile.
BingoBoingo: Selling a .33 stake at 30,000 weight for.33 BTC isn't going to be feasible.
smickles: easily a few more bil in things like BPOs and BPCs
BingoBoingo: I'll think on this a bit.
BingoBoingo: And lets say at 16`367 you spent .33 to purchase 0.5, 0.6 or whatever on No (In case miners betting late on No make covering the offer at a higher weight a challenge, Spz. No becomes obvious and a member of the math challenged drops 1000 BTC on No)
BingoBoingo: Ah, so what works again? You want to pay ? for a stake with the timeweight adjusted upwards? Wouldn't it be easier to adjust the price paid or the portion of the stake purchased?
TheNewDeal: the yes pays less than half a percent at 1 btc
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I'm thinking rather than adjusting time weight which could create a bit of a pickle if a lot of large late betting acticity swoops in we consider the matter of pricing a 0.5 stake in terms of the premium or discount applied to 0.5 BTC to purchase it.
TheNewDeal: My position will currently pay out 1.22 per 1 invested, but I have like 4X more invested, so it doesn't make much sense to buy a small fraction
asciilifeform: BingoBoingo: in principle, it would make a pretty good 'low tech testable' precious metal. simply determine melting point.
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I'd actually be more interested in swapping a fraction of the no for a fraction of the Yes. If we are trading Bitcoin against the position... I'd maybe be interested in offering a bit of extra timeweight.
TheNewDeal: let's say I were to send you a fraction of a BTC (let's say a half) on the no bet. Would you consider giving me a larger timeweight than what you have bet at?
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Yeah, but I usually like to survey the whole field at once. Creates a real appreciation of time weight
BingoBoingo: Well, it is a relic of BitBet's earlier days
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: It's a simple tool. You past in the lines from bitbet and get the whole thing laid out.
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Do you have a more interesting tool for calculating Bitbet outcomes then?
TheNewDeal: let me do a quick calculation
BingoBoingo: How do we go about pricing No at a weight TheNewDeal versus yes at a weight?
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Well, let's not reveal the particular bet since we are miming what making such a deal would look like and Assume I have this position http://bitbet.us/bet/677/bitcoin-network-difficulty-14bn-on-bastille-day/#b39 And would like to swap half of the balance for a favorably priced yes position.
TheNewDeal: MP, but recently they have upped the amounts they bet, by a large amoutn
mircea_popescu: <TheNewDeal> but if they're bets are going to be a large portion of the gains/losses, it seems like investors would want to know what their history has been on the bets << you know investors can readily revbiew this as they're all published
TheNewDeal: thats possible. I have 5.6 total BTC in for a timeweight of ~197,000. Care to share what you're trying to trade?
TheNewDeal: you would give a amount, say 1 BTC, and we would tack on a timeweight to it
TheNewDeal: bitcoinpete picked up a mere .1 BTC when I am looking for more
TheNewDeal: but if they're bets are going to be a large portion of the gains/losses, it seems like investors would want to know what their history has been on the bets
TheNewDeal: I play around with my model a little bit and try to make it look realist. Gribble and bitcoinwisdom are pretty much looking at something like the last 500 or 1000 blocks and predicting off that
mircea_popescu: but what's the point/use for a changing prediction ?
mike_c: hah, yeah, i'm glad i didn't watch it. too much of a sweat.
mircea_popescu: at some point the russian fowled 5 serves in a row
mircea_popescu: that little shit gave sharapova a good run for her tits.
mircea_popescu: mike_c btw, the coffee shop i happenedto stop for my pasteleria today (which dubs itself as a "local de encuentro" and during the night time doubles as a whorehouse) just happened to run the match on a large screen
mike_c: best part of winning a bitbet: gloating in the comments.
mircea_popescu: it turns out to be a pretty great breakfast!
asciilifeform: (lw is another reddit clone that makes hn, etc. look sane. inhabited by folks terrified of robo-apocalypse. i was drummed out of lw as a 'future genocidal criminal' for... considering resurrecting doug lenat's 'eurisko.') ☟︎
asciilifeform: dig up a (solved) problem (or, 'problem'), peddle solution (or 'solution'), ???, profit
asciilifeform: ^ a problem gleefully re-introduced by quite a few 'language of the day!' designers
dub: life is not always a forum
mircea_popescu: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I can easily follow 50+ page PHPbb threads that drag on for months or even years, or 4chan threads with hundreds of posts and more on the way every time you refresh, but a small conversation (in reality; I considered it huge by my HN standards) I had on here the other day with about 10 comments or so made my head spin. I wrote half the posts and it was still hard to follow! O
mircea_popescu: "enjoyment of the first look you take at a comment page is prioritized over active participation. That's great if you're trying to attach ads to pictures of cats, but if you're trying to have a real conversation, it just gets in the way. I can read, I don't need an algorithm to tell me which comments are notable and which ones are junk. If I see a troll post on any other site, I don't seize up and have an aneurism, I j
mircea_popescu: it's utterly dependent on you living in a boring environment. or in other words, if shunning works, your life sucks.
mircea_popescu: dub actually the material i've seen included a lot of derping about how fucking horrible and psychologically blabla that is.
midnightmagic: what's a hellban?
BingoBoingo: I have to wonder who the original autist was to come up with the idea of a slowban.
asciilifeform: BingoBoingo: slowban << poor site performance emulated for a very special someone
BingoBoingo: WTF is a slowban
BingoBoingo: Is there a link to when this announcement was announced?
mircea_popescu: nobody can point to such a broken spot on the interwebs, but nevertheless the apparent abundance of such is why every lemming wears plaid.
mircea_popescu: this is such an amusing thing, because of all the utterly meaningless forums out there pretending to be communities and deluding themselves as to their own relevancy, not a single one would admit it's a failure
mircea_popescu: "But in the absence of some system of law, the tiny minority of users out to do harm – intentionally or not – eventually drive out all the civil community members, leaving behind a lawless, chaotic badland."
mircea_popescu: pretty cool way to run a bet i say
mircea_popescu: so if you predicted it i send kako a btc, if not you do ?
mircea_popescu: can be a bet for charity. whole bet goes to b-a donation address
mike_c: hm, ok, i'll make a small wager. i'm not super-confident, but i think i've got it.
mircea_popescu: pure and simple, at some point in whatever, 1995, some derp with a blog/forum/platform came up with the idea of BANNING
mike_c: a prediction for later. i want proof that i called it.
asciilifeform: for a turdmeister, wielding the banhammer isn't really satisfying unless he imagines that he's adding heretics to an all-important 'index librorum prohibitorum'
mircea_popescu: so theykinda have a bit of an identity issue
mircea_popescu: "I was recently met with a torrent of downvotes –nearly 100, might have actually crossed that– for poking fun at HN’s incessant we’re-not-reddit-we’re-much-more-sophisticated circlejerking"
mike_c: crazy. well, he'll find a paycheck somewhere.
mircea_popescu: prolly tried to resist a salary cut
benkay: <mircea_popescu> Mats_cd03: benkay is a queen << ahahaha they got yo numba nao vulpes. // y'all ain't even seen me in my heels yet
asciilifeform: 'reddit' may be a cesspool, but hn is a very special kind of echo hell.
asciilifeform: the interesting thing isn't that pg & co. zap posts they aren't particularly fond of. rather more interesting: the elaborate gymnastics to maintain a pretense of being an uncensored forum.
asciilifeform: (to anyone in usa, 'mossberg' is a '12' caliber shotgun)
mircea_popescu: "Another common criticism of this practice has been that while in theory, it's a smart and effective way to discourage trolling, in actuality, the trolls and spammers are the first to become wise to this, and instead many innocent users get hurt, being unaware of what's going on."
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform wait, you're NOT ONLY A WIKIPEDIA SPAMMER ARE YOU!!1
asciilifeform has the honour of running a site hellbanned on hn.
PeterGriffin: i smell a ban coming
gribble: The bot responds when you start a line with the ! character. A good starting point for exploring the bot is the !facts command. You can also visit the bot's website for a list of help topics and documentation: http://gribble.sourceforge.net/
mircea_popescu: mike_c he held the thing by the fucking blade, too. a 12 inch knife sharp enough to slice beef on touch
Namworld: Barring shopping at a place with higher quality products. The outlets would need to be similar in both place.
Namworld: They don't, but assuming a large amount of varied goods, probably rarely more difference than 10%-15% for the same stuff.
mircea_popescu: "This white paper seeks to put forth the economic and technical reasons that the digital tokens known as “AppCoins” can develop a value in the market and maintain their value over the long term, should their associated application gain adoption by users. "
mircea_popescu: asciilifeform well, the heinz is a direct import.
mircea_popescu: the blockchain is a bettercook than benkay
mike_c: i could only guess at the cab ride. i'm a better cook than benkay but that's about it.
mircea_popescu: mike_c: tapes are $20 / TB. can't beat that with a stick. << quite true.
Namworld: 300 USD? Sounds a bit too high. Even for Canada/US
mircea_popescu: Mats_cd03: benkay is a queen << ahahaha they got yo numba nao vulpes.
mircea_popescu: so i just did a round of solid shopping.
mircea_popescu: admitting against all evidence that there even exists a distinmction between stupid and poor.
asciilifeform: 'yer doing 5mm/sec in a 4mm zone'
mircea_popescu: it just implies "accessibility" is about as dumb a thing to think about re bitcoin as you know, speeding tickets for snails.
benkay: and weren't you just harping on the upsides to a size-constrained block? more competition for limited resources?
benkay: so this implies a rather hard fork.
mircea_popescu: benkay " let me know when it's realistic." << let me explain realistic. if there's 4k txn a second, which weigh a conservative 512 bytes each, at 512 seconds per block you get...
asciilifeform: 'sparkletina' is apparently a 'key word' used by various u.s. (?) folks who wish they could move there
gribble: sparkletina - Yahoo Answers: <https://answers.yahoo.com/activity?show=KWGBHWRCDPYNIHJ42B5LQ3VGI4&t=g>; I need help creating a livingroom with a masculine flair like an ...: <https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061028054928AACOmEw>
dub: I recall seeing a paintball dot matrix printer in some promo
asciilifeform: ^ robotic graffiti isn't new; i vaguely recall a 'printer van' with eight spray cans that spat out text as it went, circa '04
mike_c: tapes are $20 / TB. can't beat that with a stick.
mike_c: that v14 must have been a killer
gribble: Error: I am not seeing this user on IRC. If you want information about a registered gpg user, try the 'gpg info' command instead.
cazalla: nubbins`: too easy against cpu or online play? i've got to buy a pro wii controller as the gamepad gives me rsi with mk8
benkay: in a sauna.
benkay: or a SUPERNODDDDDDDE
jurov: or a goat
Mats_cd03: benkay is a queen
benkay: but embedded in a sceptre