log☇︎
213000+ entries in 1.613s
jurov: i like it.. but... 147,44 eur?
fluffypony: "Mhm, I met Garr a couple months back in real life.. Can anyone give me a summary of what happened?"
fluffypony: yeah I thought that post was great
assbot: Where i can sell my business plans and ideas about bitcoin and its dev?
punkman: "I have many ideas about Bitcoin business but no one is caring me.Only CEX cares my ideas and innovation.I want to deal with persons in this forum"
assbot: Where i can sell my business plans and ideas about bitcoin and its dev?
punkman: "I am going to be Bitcoin Entrepreneur soon,as i creates ideas for bitcoin and its projects.I have also given ideas to CEX.io and Coinbase and they are reviewing and forwarding to their teams.Now i am looking for any platform that accepts my ideas and buy.Is there any platform which cares user ideas and thoughts."
joesmoe: i need add the pgp key but am not sure how
joesmoe: i have no idea how to do this
joesmoe: oh well i give up for now
joesmoe: i already did
joesmoe: i am authenticated
joesmoe: and since i don't have any trust with assbot, does that mean that he won't voice me?
joesmoe: yup i didn't realize the "long key" was the same as fingerprint
joesmoe: oh its the fingerprint okay i have that
joesmoe: says i'm already registered anyhow
joesmoe: how do i get this key its asking me to put it in?
joesmoe: okay great, so i do need to setup gpg with gribble.
joesmoe: [11:36] gribble: I don't recognize you.
joesmoe: i've never setup GPG with gribble
joesmoe: anybody have any information on how to use assbot? Do I have to be auth'd with gribble with GPG or can i be bc authd?
joesmoe: yeah i know
joesmoe: ahhhh maybe i'm not getting these notices because of BNC
joesmoe: i'm trying that but getting no reply.
assbot: How I discovered CCS Injection Vulnerability (CVE-2014-0224) - OpenSSL #ccsinjection Vulnerability
assbot: How I discovered CCS Injection Vulnerability (CVE-2014-0224) - OpenSSL #ccsinjection Vulnerability
davout: do i read this one correctly or is euronext valued somewhere around a fifth of whatsapp
fluffypony: if I didn't know any better I would say that's OS X Guhurkagurkle
punkman: I don't see one
punkman: I'm wondering if it will make sense for the Yes side to rent some extra hashing power at certain points
punkman: that's why I went with Yes :P
BingoBoingo: Sigh, I guess I'm going to have to explain how this longshots thing works...
TheNewDeal: i've gotta get some sleep here
BingoBoingo: I just don't think we are getting that third change.
BingoBoingo: I think it is going to be hard to add enough hashpower these next 34 days to keep up with dying equiptment and raise the difficulty all that much.
BingoBoingo: And I only thing we are getting two changes
BingoBoingo: I think it is close.
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Maybe we wait a week. At the moment I think it looks like a bit like your side is more likely, but it is close to a coin flip.
BingoBoingo: Ah, there's the problem. We're looking at different things. You have a large stake in a probable bet, and I'm willing to offer a hedge so you can avoid a total loss. I'd be willing to unload part of my position, but... I am not an insurance company.
TheNewDeal: and i'm trying to figure out exactly how much would reduce your return and also mitigate my losses in case of some rare event
TheNewDeal: so I really only have incentive to offer you less return to reduce your loss
TheNewDeal: you bet later than i did, and on the less probable outcome (in my opinion)
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I think you might be trying to complicate this thing more than it needs to be complicated.
TheNewDeal: I'm using the current no and yes totals
TheNewDeal: I'm not using bitbet.py
TheNewDeal: the thing is I have to take in my whole stake
BingoBoingo: I might be amenable to .33 BTC at 25000 weight... the line looks like No 25000 0.33000000 1.65041127 1.32041127
TheNewDeal: then I think we're both stuck to the waiting game
TheNewDeal: if I send .25 btc to you representing 50k timeweight you would win .63 btc on No
TheNewDeal: one I was thinking of was buying .25 stake at 50k weight
TheNewDeal: i've been pondering over some calculations
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I think something about the math you presented for your example is wrong.
BingoBoingo: I'll think on this a bit.
TheNewDeal: i dont think bets are going to be made
TheNewDeal: I've got to go get some food before the bar closes
TheNewDeal: for me I would be winning 10% on my investment of 5.9 BTC on YES, or returning 27% of that investment on no
TheNewDeal: if I were to purchase .33 BTC at 30K timeweight
TheNewDeal: we could definitely swap, but I don't see how it would help you out
TheNewDeal: first off, I don't think there will be any late bettors here
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I'm thinking rather than adjusting time weight which could create a bit of a pickle if a lot of large late betting acticity swoops in we consider the matter of pricing a 0.5 stake in terms of the premium or discount applied to 0.5 BTC to purchase it.
TheNewDeal: My position will currently pay out 1.22 per 1 invested, but I have like 4X more invested, so it doesn't make much sense to buy a small fraction
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I'd actually be more interested in swapping a fraction of the no for a fraction of the Yes. If we are trading Bitcoin against the position... I'd maybe be interested in offering a bit of extra timeweight.
TheNewDeal: let's say I were to send you a fraction of a BTC (let's say a half) on the no bet. Would you consider giving me a larger timeweight than what you have bet at?
TheNewDeal: if I purchased your whole position, I would make 3.78% on yes, or lose 28.8 percent
TheNewDeal: the maximum i stand to make on my yes prop is 1.25 btc with 5.6 bet (assuming no more NO bets come)
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Yeah, but I usually like to survey the whole field at once. Creates a real appreciation of time weight
mike_c: blech. i feel another bitbet blog post coming on.
mike_c: i do :) i should clean up some of my scripts and publish them sometime..
TheNewDeal: i use excel or simply Calculator
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: I'm curious, are you running Bitbet.py?
TheNewDeal: i take that back
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: Well, let's not reveal the particular bet since we are miming what making such a deal would look like and Assume I have this position http://bitbet.us/bet/677/bitcoin-network-difficulty-14bn-on-bastille-day/#b39 And would like to swap half of the balance for a favorably priced yes position.
TheNewDeal: hmmm I'm going to have to do some research. thought I read something that said they were upping the amount of BTC bet
TheNewDeal: thats possible. I have 5.6 total BTC in for a timeweight of ~197,000. Care to share what you're trying to trade?
TheNewDeal: that I would pay out to your address
TheNewDeal: I don't want any of your no :D
TheNewDeal: oh I don
BingoBoingo: TheNewDeal: How do these arrangements work? Suppose I wanted to trade some of my no for your yes, how do we price these?
TheNewDeal: bitcoinpete picked up a mere .1 BTC when I am looking for more
TheNewDeal: I have bets on Yes , and I would still like to trade exposure
mircea_popescu: i think your talking about bitbet is incidental to what it'll actually do.
TheNewDeal: will bitbet start reporting the results of their bets in the manner I was talking about yesterday?
TheNewDeal: I play around with my model a little bit and try to make it look realist. Gribble and bitcoinwisdom are pretty much looking at something like the last 500 or 1000 blocks and predicting off that
TheNewDeal: gribble was guessing like 0% when I was guessing around 5
TheNewDeal: I'm very sad I didn't get to see the sexy Sharapova in action :(
mike_c: hah, yeah, i'm glad i didn't watch it. too much of a sweat.
mircea_popescu: i caught it starting with the 4-6 6-7 1-0 moment
mircea_popescu: mike_c btw, the coffee shop i happenedto stop for my pasteleria today (which dubs itself as a "local de encuentro" and during the night time doubles as a whorehouse) just happened to run the match on a large screen
TheNewDeal: I love mango and I love ginger, but I haven't had the combination. Sounds like an indian dish to me
mircea_popescu: well i guess with all teh encouragement ima make more travel log posts
asciilifeform: tbh, i wasn't properly banned from any of them.
asciilifeform: (lw is another reddit clone that makes hn, etc. look sane. inhabited by folks terrified of robo-apocalypse. i was drummed out of lw as a 'future genocidal criminal' for... considering resurrecting doug lenat's 'eurisko.') ☟︎
thestringpuller: but I guess with pankkake 's bot that's not necessary anymore
mircea_popescu: h, and of course, no one but the people I responded to will ever read the things I wrote hours after the thread dropped off the front page."
mircea_popescu: I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I can easily follow 50+ page PHPbb threads that drag on for months or even years, or 4chan threads with hundreds of posts and more on the way every time you refresh, but a small conversation (in reality; I considered it huge by my HN standards) I had on here the other day with about 10 comments or so made my head spin. I wrote half the posts and it was still hard to follow! O
mircea_popescu: "enjoyment of the first look you take at a comment page is prioritized over active participation. That's great if you're trying to attach ads to pictures of cats, but if you're trying to have a real conversation, it just gets in the way. I can read, I don't need an algorithm to tell me which comments are notable and which ones are junk. If I see a troll post on any other site, I don't seize up and have an aneurism, I j
mircea_popescu: so i guess the kids in charge have some deep seated issues with this sort of passive-agressive nonsense.
mircea_popescu: dub actually the material i've seen included a lot of derping about how fucking horrible and psychologically blabla that is.
midnightmagic: oh yeah. Like +z. I love +z.
BingoBoingo: I have to wonder who the original autist was to come up with the idea of a slowban.