136200+ entries in 1.04s
mircea_popescu: ;;later tell psztorc "BetsOfBitcoin Also old, yet closed Mysteriously. Funds stolen or missing. " << nothing mysterious about it. back in 2012 inaba was pushing the bfl scam, had
a deal with the various "bet site operators" to allow bets on bfl delivery and then anull if it doesn't deliver. betsofbitcoin went for it, got called out for it, was dead after that.
https://bitbet.us/bet/7/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-befor mircea_popescu: pete_dushenski> and even after that they're unlikely to lead
a project << maybe we'll allow your argument re civilised places. but in the us specifically, none of the stuff you discuss ever happens.
pete_dushenski: and even after that they're unlikely to lead
a project
pete_dushenski: sure, if you're fresh out of school, you know dick all, which is quite specifically why architects aren't 'licensed' until damn near
a decade of practice
pete_dushenski: 'modernisations', 'reskinning', and other forms of revamping that rely on the existing bones of
a building are what keep cities alive and allow neighbourhoods to go through multiple phases of waxing and waning
assbot: Logged on 22-09-2015 13:57:38; mircea_popescu: (which happens to be true, architects know
a lot about how buildings may be, and for this reason nothing about buildings that are)
mircea_popescu: and yes, /me grew up in
a world without glasses. or divorce.
pete_dushenski: psztorc: btw, even 'lines' change y'know. so... not static. so... time for
a new definition !
mircea_popescu: "For millennia, there was suffering and misery. Can you imagine
a world without music, or eyeglasses, or DayQuil?" << wut is dayquil ?
mircea_popescu: THAT's not betting. it's just like college ponzi,
a scamatron.
assbot: Successfully added
a rating of 1 for psztorc with note: Has no idea what post-structuralism is. Just like everyone else.
assbot: Searching pgp.mit.edu for key with fingerprint: 16C81597E76E86E6C01EF037AA4B3330F162C410. This may take
a few moments.
assbot: That does not seem to be
a valid fingerprint.
mircea_popescu: well what do you want me to do. they don't, per se, have
a liquidity problem, not being the sort of thing that may have
a liquidityy problem. they simply have no relation to liquidity whatsoever.
pete_dushenski: ary. The vehicle could otherwise interpret the test procedure as
a dangerous situation or malfunction, activating traction control or stability control. By enabling
a test mode, the vehicle will be able to operate during the test process. Once the test is complete and the car is restarted, the car reverts to its normal function. And once the cars are in on-the-road mode, nitrogen oxide levels increased by 10 to
assbot: Logged on 18-09-2015 18:54:21; pete_dushenski: either
a) when anything plugs into the obd-ii port, or b) the whole thing is
a parallel construction to keep ze germans at bay against tbtf 'domestics'
pete_dushenski:
http://log.bitcoin-assets.com/?date=18-09-2015#1278736 << turns out that i was off the mark here. to wit : "Emissions system and fuel economy testing is conducted while
a vehicle is placed on
a dynamometer—think of it as
a two big rollers or
a treadmill—rather than driving on the road. The vehicle has only its driving wheels rolling (the front ones, in the case of VW vehicles). But the rear tires are station
☝︎☟︎ psztorc: I thought I had, like
a year ago. Does it expire or something?
mircea_popescu: how about you get registered in assbot so i can give you
a rating so i don't have to keep doing the upping.
mircea_popescu: im not entirely sure what "market scoring rules" are. but by the excel reference i vaguely expect
a bayesian atrocity.
mircea_popescu: you know, the abbreviation happens to already have
a meaning, in the space.
psztorc: Do you believe that MSRs have
a liquidity problem?
mircea_popescu: ie, your attempt to get fatties laid already suffers from the "wide area low height" problem. putting
a coin on top of this is just crushing it into oblivion, and going exactly tyhe opposite directionm of solving it.
mircea_popescu: this is not
a question, it is
a statement of fact. counterintuitively, perhaps (not sure why, but this only happens to some people), your addition of
a coin to the problem has in fact worsened your efficiency, by introducing
a significant friction factor.
mircea_popescu: so your liquidity has
a problem in simply materializing from the, if you'll excuse the pun, the ether ?
mircea_popescu: now, suppose i make
a bet that tomorrow will be
a solar eclipse.
psztorc:
A given claim is more likely to be false if only one person has assessed it.
mircea_popescu: but as to the experiment : suppose your coin exists. suppose it has
a total issued volume of 1mn coins. suppose i own them all, because i'm an asshole and i buy them all.
mircea_popescu: i mean srsly nobody cares if you came up with it or clark gable did. that's not at issue. and in general "original research" is even
a topic only among the wikitards. it's not
a legitimate consideration.
psztorc: Again this isn't something I made up,
a physicist designed it like 15 years ago and it is currently being used in
a few places. With play money at SciCast.
psztorc: MSRs are
a formula which relate [1] the current quantity of outstanding shares (of mutually-exclusive states) to [2] an account filled with money.
psztorc: I could link to
a pdf on market scoring rules
mircea_popescu: suppose you're in
a VC office trying to close
a deal. and i drop by to take the guy out to golf.
mircea_popescu: "My design was able to solve
a few other PM-problems as well. Any user can create
a market about anything, removing the dual-requirement that
a PM-administrator must not only be trustworthy, but also share your prediction-interests. Market scoring rule technology ensures that trading volume is irrelevant, and traders will always be able make
a trade updating the price to their estimation (even if they are the only trad
psztorc: Hey, when you wanted to read Satoshi's pdf whitepaper, did you like ask
a friend to print it out for you or something?
mircea_popescu: ok, sure, for
a given level, as long as that level is very high, they are in fact cheaper.
psztorc: For
a given level of security, the payments are now cheaper.
mircea_popescu: it's ironclad, sure. but
a tank has not very good fuel economy.
mircea_popescu: "Although Bitcoin does not solve our PM problems, it demonstrates that
a blockchain can provide scalable, censorship-resistant, and trustless solutions. Blockchain solutions also generate efficiency by cutting out middlemen and avoiding overhead costs (no brick-and-mortar, compliance, administration, etc.)." << this is miserable. what exactly is "solutions" supposed to mean ? and more importantly : the blockchain settl
mircea_popescu: "Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it...Because
a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom."
mircea_popescu: anyway, the jpm thing is more important, so let's get back to that for
a second. the matter was put to him, in
a congressional hearing, "Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?"
psztorc: that's
a lot more than MPEX's volume
psztorc: It is
a question of definition...I chose to define it that way.
mircea_popescu: you don't think walmart is
a tide business for instance, do you ?
mircea_popescu: the proposition that mtgox was
a bitcoin business is tenuous.
mircea_popescu: "Although businesses can prove their solvency, proof of future-solvency is impossible, and even solvent Bitcoin PM-businesses would be able to steal funds by trading on and then reporting incorrect prediction outcomes." << this is
a feckless misstatement of the situation.
a centralized business is predicated on the trustworthyness of its living owner. whose word is, to repurpose
a JPM quote, "worth more than all the bo
mircea_popescu: together these make up
a good 90% of bitcoin busiensses.
mircea_popescu: this is why money is important, this annullment of
a perceived difference.
mircea_popescu: and thje best example to verify this is,
a situation where you and another guy sit in
a bar for the space it takes to drink two drafts each.
mircea_popescu: there's nothing magical about money being "your own". the situation where you own house
A, and live in house B which is identical but you rent ; and the situation where you own house
A and live in house
A is imaginary.
mircea_popescu: i disagree with the notion that whether bitcoin was designed for people to hold own money or opm follows from bitcoin being p2p ; that there is
a way to differentiate between opm and yom. and other things
psztorc: It is in the pdf formatting that I am continuing my explanation of prediction markets in
a different way.
psztorc: That sentence is not
a claim that I make.
mircea_popescu: "i once got formed an idea while in front of the tv ergo tv has
a gift" ?
mircea_popescu: " Television has
a gift for simplifying and communicating ideas" << o lordy.
mircea_popescu: none of this stands to actual scrutiny, but hey, peopel got enamoured with whatever that irish thing was called, and it got to die
a hero's death so we'll hear about it like we wouldn't have heard if it just died naturally.
mircea_popescu: info-sources in
a way that is consistently and unanimously acceptable." << like that.
mircea_popescu: why would it be
a magic number and why would the number reference an undefined concept.
psztorc: That was actually
a footnote. It was $1 in the pdf
mircea_popescu: ""Whereas
a stock market is
a place to buy and sell shares of
a corporation’s earnings,
a Prediction Market (PM) is
a place to buy and sell predictions. Valid predictions entitle their owner to $11"" << this, foir the record, is horrible writing. do not mix things so far apart the abstraction scale, it confuses idiots and it gives smart people the impression your abstractor really has very little breadth.
mircea_popescu: in any case, the question here isn't whether you could stuff the heart of an ox, the guts of
a pig and the lungs of
a horse inside the skin of
a skinned goose.
mircea_popescu: but you will notice you downloading porn and the functioning of
a market are unrelated.
gernika: mircea_popescu: I can see
a bbs as
a public forum, yes. The decentralization is not as clear to me, at least not in the way I used them. I only ever dialed into one.
mircea_popescu: gernika
a) would you agree that the superset of this inquiry is the bbs and b) would you say it meets definitions of either "forum" or "decentralized" as you use them ?
gernika: Is it impossible to implement
a public forum on
a decentralized architecture, such as
a dht?
mircea_popescu: (clearing, obviously, is
a term of art, in finance. it's the process whereby definite items are recognized by others. very similar to the function of
a torens title registrar, or the births book, or the military despatches.)
mircea_popescu: ok. it's for clearing risk in
a centrally-controlled environment.
psztorc: What "is" is
a different question than what "is for".
mircea_popescu: well bitbet is plainly
a central market for clearing risk.
mircea_popescu: to take
a step out of the purest theory closer t oactual practice.
BingoBoingo: How
a trusted third party could possibly be agreed upon though is among the most centralizing mechanisms possibru
mircea_popescu: in this sense, "the earth centralizes the imago-es of all astral bodies, as their light projection". nevertheless, the earth is not
a black hole.
mircea_popescu: but the "meet" in "market" has
a different intension from "meet" as in "sql join".
mircea_popescu: this argument is not even apparent if people were spherical cows in
a vacuum. but as people are, it's impossible to obtain an outcome by opposite process.
psztorc: One is
a process, the other an outcome.
psztorc: Can't
a decentralized market centralize trade?
mircea_popescu: well no. the fundamental problem is that the function of
a market is to centralize trade. decentralized market is like cool boiler.
psztorc: The fundamental problem is tying the market to reality, without invoking
a trusted 3rd party.
mircea_popescu: you understand the fundamental problem with trying to create
a "decentralized market" do you ?
mircea_popescu: "Truthcoin is my ambitious project to create
a trustless P2P prediction-marketplace. This is possible because, unlike most marketplaces, the end product of
a prediction market (PM) is information. "