111400+ entries in 1.084s
mircea_popescu: mike
_c but how dares microsoft tell x y z ppl what to do!
lampelina: mike
_c, will do my best for site to be up asap
bitcoinpete: mircea
_popescu: quite enjoyed your fun article. the sizes of the gaps between those layers is nothing to sneeze at :)
diametric: mircea
_popescu: people selling wow gold is technically stealing it.
diametric: mircea
_popescu: in the same way if I stole your TV and sold it, you're not responsible for capital gains on it.
diametric: mircea
_popescu: oh none of course since nothing gets realized
mike_c: thanks MisterE mircea
_popescu
mircea_popescu: mike
_c the point about "it dun really matter so much to correctly identify the house" stands too, for the angle discussed in chat.
mircea_popescu: mike
_c the one you exclude a) always has the same output as one of the remainder two and is either made at weight 100k
mircea_popescu: mike
_c the correct selection for house bets is to take the first three bets of any wager, and exclude one of them
nubbins`: mircea
_popescu is there a way to exchange btc for whatever the fuck rift uses for currency?
mike_c: mircea
_popescu: didn't get it..
BingoBoingo: mike
_c: I Mr. Stern still the commissioner?
benkay: kakobrekla, mircea
_popescu: where's the bitbet api again?
nubbins`: Mats
_cd03: plenty of blotter art on ebay, even
nubbins`: mircea
_popescu: for that matter, i don't think the chemist generally lays the blotter at all
nubbins`: Mats
_cd03: i haven't been keeping track of the clones at all
nubbins`: mircea
_popescu: as it happens, the best i've tried has been white-on-white (no design at all)
nubbins`: Mats
_cd03: would actually be a neat business to get into, supplying blotter paper
davout: mircea
_popescu: thank you kind sir
davout: mircea
_popescu: who was arguing that ?
davout: mircea
_popescu: doesn't your argument boil down to : "assets are risky because they can depreciate" ?
davout: mircea
_popescu: how would bb buy anything in the first place ?
Neil: mircea
_popescu: So, somehting I've wondered. Do the "bitbet" terms at MPEX prevent bitbet branching out into other revenue streams?
Neil: mircea
_popescu: Though I think he actually got some contra bets late in the game, which meant he came out near break-even, by luck of said coin toss!
Neil: mircea
_popescu: Happy to entertain any other bet, of over 0.5 BTC per side, where someone has bet both ways. I'm not holding my breath, given the performance so far...
Neil: mircea
_popescu: My claim and offer stands. Let's leave it at that. :)
Neil: mircea
_popescu: But it's only you on the other side. What do you suggest?
Neil: mircea
_popescu: So regarding
http://bitbet.us/bet/635/1btc-10-000-usd/ and our friend 1K4Fs, I'd be happy to bet real BTC that 1K4Fs loses money regardless of outcome. It's extremely likely (>90%) and given an integral of payoff against probability, I think it's clear betting both ways is a losing proposition. Well, to me at least, which is all that matters.
Neil: mircea
_popescu:
http://bitbet.us/bet/619/bitcoin-difficulty-at-or-above-2b-before-feb/ 16tA0 (apologies for remebering wrong above) bets 11 and 8 (19 total) gets less than 14 back. I claim that is typical, and can support with more examples. Can you give me even one example of a two-way bet like this, for similar amounts in size, that was a profit for the bettor?
mircea_popescu: Mats
_cd03 Neil not that there's anything wrong with intuition, it's how great things start. it still has to be actually checked with data.
Neil: mircea
_popescu: I'm still waiting for your counterexample to my claim.
mircea_popescu: Mats
_cd03 spam is not misspelled because the spammers can't hire editors. spam is misspelled because that selects for idiots, and they are looking for idiots (false positives are very expensive for them)
Neil: mircea
_popescu: But of course. I'm not stupid. The 16% is a good example: the house wins the more people rationally take all that is available "for (near) free".
Neil: mircea
_popescu: Given your stake in the process I don't expect you to agree with me. But I think the facts speak for themselves. If someone believes 2-way betting pays they're welcome to continue doing it.
Neil: mircea
_popescu: A big, and time-dependent, "if".
Neil: mircea
_popescu: Don't be daft. One can't take the opposite of his bet.
Neil: mircea
_popescu: Are you claiming some fudge for the first 4 days would fix it? You're smarter than that.
nubbins`: mircea
_popescu: that's the gamble. someone with pocket change could swing it either way
Neil: mircea
_popescu: MisterE no actually, betting both sides is the way to play. << I think, judging from the public histories on bitbet, that this is very poor advice. It seems that waiting pays; I think bitbet probably needs harsher time decay than linear.
mpexbot: mircea
_popescu: S.MG 1 day: average: 0.000154 high: 0.000154 low: 0.000154 volume: 1050 btc: 0.1617 7 day: average: 0.00011355 high: 0.000154 low: 0.00010001 volume: 8050 btc: 0.9140788 30 day: average: 0.0001282 high: 0.000154 low: 0.00010001 volume: 13282 btc: 1.7026868
davout: mircea
_popescu: admin//twocansandastring42
the20year: mike
_c: i'm not sure where hte last update was here. We have 6 total properties either purchased or in contract. closed on #4 today, supposed to close on #5 any day now. #6 closes the 7th of next month
Apocalyptic: mike
_c, also the fact that svn handles branches awfully
benkay: you're simply outrageous, mircea
_popescu
duduqa: mircea
_popescu: I said "ban" exactly because of that
BingoBoingo: mircea
_popescu: He was one of those daytime shows that keep those with nothing to do during the day sated in between ration tickets.
bones`: My hometown shining star of Reality TV, mircea
_popescu
BingoBoingo: mircea
_popescu: Well, of all of the things to have drawn contempt from, asses might not be that bad
CheckDavid: Any short comments on it mircea
_popescu ?
CheckDavid: mircea
_popescu: do you know about Master coin ?
MisterE: what do you mean mircea
_popescu ?
ninjashogun: mircea
_popescu, or even default swaps for example?
moiety: ;; later tell Izzy
_ Do you still need help?
benkay: Mats
_cd03: tack another three order of magnitude on for thuggery.
ninjashogun: Mats
_cd03, we know for a fact that with real currencies the answer is "yes". We know because people used paypal when paypal froze merchant's accounts and ruined their businesses. We know because people use US Banks when US Banks freeze people's accounts while they're under investigatoin. etc.