990000+ entries in 0.766s
smickles: Diablo-D3: because people shouldn't actually buy
those mining contracts,
the fact
that
there is a market for
that shit baffles me
Diablo-D3: okay, so you DO want diff
to go up if you want
to win at futures
mircea_popescu: as diff goes up you make less from mining but some money from
the future
mircea_popescu: look, it's really simple. you have 1k btc, want
to mine. case A : you buy mining gear worth 1k btc. mine. as diff goes up you make less btc from mining
smickles: you'd have
to keep
the mining farm operating
smickles: it's possible
to calc a point
to buy at where anything on one side of
the line is risk free profit
smickles: Diablo-D3: mircea_popescu and I are
talking about
two different
things, him: insureance, me arbitrage
Diablo-D3: because
the more mining hardware
they own,
the more
the diff goes up
Diablo-D3: mircea_popescu: if
they're playing
the future game?
mircea_popescu: no, whoever is mining wants
to insure against diff going up
Diablo-D3: because whoever is mining wants
to bet
the diff will only go up
Diablo-D3: well who creates
the futures
then?
Diablo-D3: I create
the futures, sell
them, and
then mine like no
tommorow?
smickles: so when you mine btc, you are essentially doing
the same
thing as selling
that contract
smickles: it's worth an amount of satoshis equal
to
the diff rate on dec 19th at midnight
smickles: X.IDIFF.DEC settles in BTC on
the
third Wednesday of December each year before midnight GMT as equal
to
the network difficulty
then current,
truncated
to an integer and expressed in satoshi.
smickles: if mining is equiv.
to selling diff,
then buying diff futures nixes it, and any leftover value (the extrinsic value) is profit
mircea_popescu: thus it helps
to have a supply of already bought virtual diff
mircea_popescu: when you are mining you are
taking virtual diff and
turning it into real diff.
smickles: your work pressures
the diff
to increase, so you are, in effect selling diff
smickles: ok, so, when you are mining, are you essentially buying diff, or selling diff by
the action of mining?
smickles: mircea_popescu: did i not chat with you about
this happening?
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 13.34640, Best ask: 13.34641, Bid-ask spread: 0.00001, Last
trade: 13.34640, 24 hour volume: 63684.39592991, 24 hour low: 13.00000, 24 hour high: 13.90119, 24 hour vwap: 13.59704
jcpham: that
time variable just got bigger
though
jcpham: gpu mining is profitable if you have free power and enough
time
mircea_popescu: abracadabra looks
to buy more gpus <<< prolly a safer investment
Diablo-D3: whats
the chances of diff increasing 115x from right now
smickles: Diablo-D3: it's not about your numbers, it's about my formula,
the delta of diff futures etc
Diablo-D3: smickles: wait, what was
the last you saw?
smickles: i need
to research futures a bit more :o
Diablo-D3: smickles: so you should be able
to script
that easily
Diablo-D3: smickles: 1300, 66, and 400 are dollars, gh, and watts from
the vendor per unit
jcpham: smickles let's create a mining asset and
take
the bitcoins!
Diablo-D3: dollars per kwh
to watt hour
times 6.06 watts convert
to btc convert
to day convert
to month
jcpham: smickles if you need a partner
to operate mining equipment for you...
smickles: Diablo-D3: so you said
that
the cost of equipment and elec. per month per gh was ~.09958?
Diablo-D3: so we'd need roughly 388 million diff for avalon
to become unprofitable
gribble: Estimated percent change in difficulty
this period | -9.6845456433 % based on data since last change | -15.4954531067 % based on data for last
three days
jcpham: i
think my asic purchase is only profitable for me up
to a 30x diff increase
Diablo-D3: gigavps:
this is a profit calculation
Diablo-D3: smickles: anyhow, I did
the hard part of
the math for you I
think
Diablo-D3: smickles: so how much would you be selling
the futures for?
Diablo-D3: diff cant increase
that after 24 months
jcpham: maybe asic will be here by
then
Diablo-D3: diff cant increase more
than
that in
the first 24 months
mircea_popescu: smickles
tbh i always
thought miner wants
to buy diff nto sell it.
smickles: Diablo-D3:
the idea is
to factor out
the diff changes
Namjies: Still no one in here willing
to lend me 100 BTC I presume?
Diablo-D3: you'll have
to substitute your own in for serious math
Diablo-D3: btw, I did
that math using 12 cents per kwh
smickles: Diablo-D3: and
the cost per Gh per month you figured?
Diablo-D3: [02:28:11] <gribble>
The expected generation output, at 1000.0 Mhps, given difficulty of 3370181.79928, is 0.149224647288 BTC per day and 0.00621769363698 BTC per hour.
smickles: ok, Diablo-D3
tell me straight, how many diff 1 shares per minute does 66 Gh/s expect
to produce?
jcpham: better
than diff/block reward
jcpham: and whether
they are all accepted or not
smickles: hey, how come cgminer
tell me
that i get 3 shares per minute on 200Mh/s?
jcpham: I cannot wait until
this asic shit materializes
jcpham: 41.31 according
to my stats
Diablo-D3: jcpham: so you're right in
the right range
smickles: mircea_popescu: so it
turns out my assumptions were way off
Diablo-D3: jcpham: no, Im saying, it has nothing
to do with hardware
Diablo-D3: 2**32 / 1000000000 = seconds it
takes at 1gh
to deplete
the range
Diablo-D3: it has nothing
to do with hardware
thestringpuller: sir smickles
the bitoin certified accountant, i have idea for you
smickles: so
that's 257 shares per minute
then?
Diablo-D3: so you pay 0.099 btc per month
to get 603492 shares.
Diablo-D3: it
takes 4.295 seconds
to go
through
the entire 2**32 space
smickles: and, is
that 838 shares per minute?
Diablo-D3: you're looking at roughly $200 per 7 of
those plus another 50 watts
smickles: also, who's going
to buy a 79XX now