975700+ entries in 0.67s
smickles: how do human
trials of drugs find subjects?
smickles: that's why it needs
to be double blind
mircea_popescu: smickles well if we just kidnap
test subjects off
the street its unethical and if i let you bring your own you'll cheat.
smickles: we could probably setup a double blind crossover
trial
smickles: 10 btc, It's probably just a coincidence
that it's high heels, could've been converse allstars
jcpham: my data doesn't support
that hypothesis
smickles: mircea_popescu: if women fuck better in highheels, I'm willing
to bet
that it's just a (possibly localized) social phenomenon
mircea_popescu: why do women fuck better when
they have real high heels on ?
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 19.63201, Best ask: 19.70472, Bid-ask spread: 0.07271, Last
trade: 19.63201, 24 hour volume: 49943.54713803, 24 hour low: 18.70000, 24 hour high: 19.70323, 24 hour vwap: 19.36427
mircea_popescu: for
that matter, once
things blow over do you suppose
the usd will only drop 90% ?
mircea_popescu: do you
think
the greek drachma would have ONLY dropped 90% recently ?
DeadWeasel: true,
they can't even control it as is.
mircea_popescu: most national currencies are worse
than btc in
that perspective.
jurov: would be infinitely better
than
their current $
mircea_popescu: DeadWeasel btc is not particularly volatile for
that purpose.
DeadWeasel: when I can afford my own atoll in
the south pacific, i'll run my country on BTC.
DeadWeasel: can't run a country on volatility like
this. maybe later.
mircea_popescu: the
thing is,
they're not smart enough
to do any of
tham.
jurov: and list on mpex, if you allow
them lol
jurov: they should kick mugabe and move
to bitcoin
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 19.46042, Best ask: 19.60448, Bid-ask spread: 0.14406, Last
trade: 19.46042, 24 hour volume: 49860.53894881, 24 hour low: 18.70000, 24 hour high: 19.63999, 24 hour vwap: 19.35926
mircea_popescu: i'd imagine at a bare minimum
there should be 50% coverage which would put
the volume in
the 100k range per month or somrthing
mircea_popescu: i
think like 20 sold or something, but
that's really nothing.
jurov: well, remains
to be seen if it actually
trades at such price
mircea_popescu: and for
that matter i dunno if i'd buy at 7.5mn. what, diff doubles in
the next six weeks ?
jurov: it's lowest price offered
to date. and seems nobody will sell it for less.
jurov: we'll see how it goes after we open it. just
that i
think
that buying future at 0.075 , while expected cover may be 0.0095 or maybe more isn't so attractive
jurov: it can be anywhere from (lowest difficulty in
this quarter)*2.9 and more
mircea_popescu: buyer knows it's not going
to be less
than 2.9x whatever quarter he buys in
jurov: yes, but
the buyer doesn't know where it is exactly. especially if previous quarters are mixed in
mircea_popescu: jurov
the collateral is 2.9x
the current diff per set, so march are currently about .1 ad june about .3
mircea_popescu: there's
this kaballah
thing where
they look for
the nth letters sort of
thing
markedathome: doesn't really matter, you could make any sequence of chars out of something if you look hard enough.
took me a while
to get smpoe
mircea_popescu: markedathome i guess by now pretty much everything's somewhat connected
to mpex
gribble: There are currently 5527.276 bitcoins demanded at or over 19.0 USD, worth 105766.29329 USD in
total.
gribble: (bids [--under] <pricetarget>) -- Calculate
the amount of bitcoin demanded at or over <pricetarget>. If '--under' option is given, find coins or at or under <pricetarget>.
markedathome: mircea_popescu: i just
thought it was funny
that I could get
those words out of
the way
the addresses were arranged.
gribble: There are currently 14954.611 bitcoins offered at or under 20.0 USD, worth 297782.475441 USD in
total.
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 19.42769, Best ask: 19.54999, Bid-ask spread: 0.12230, Last
trade: 19.42769, 24 hour volume: 50009.52094866, 24 hour low: 18.70000, 24 hour high: 19.63999, 24 hour vwap: 19.35837
mircea_popescu: markedathome I seriously have played a grand
total of maybe 3 btc on s.dice.
jurov: i'm going
to improve idiff futures ;)
jurov: CoinBr.IDiff will come
to bitfunder soon ;D
jurov: yes,
there is no way
to know what
the cover is. well, i got an idea how
to fix it
Bugpowder: what
the actual distribution of 27 and 9s is
jurov: but
the cover averages over all idiff shares, no?
Bugpowder: and when
the 9
threshold is hit,
the expiry is spread across both sets of sold futures
Bugpowder: I've had a long discussion wiht mp about
this
jurov: so basically you bought futures for 1.7BTC
that are covered only up
to 1.95
jurov: so
these i made only up
to 9 M
jurov: so, unless mircea corrects me, it comes out
they are covered only up
to 2.9x current difficulty
jurov: oh Bugpowder you weren;t around when i discussed
the mpex idiffs ?
Bugpowder: knock 3
times and
the door
to $20 opens?
gribble: There are currently 4392.8697 bitcoins demanded at or over 19.0 USD, worth 84249.722342 USD in
total.
gribble: There are currently 17178.888 bitcoins offered at or under 20.0 USD, worth 340747.595972 USD in
total.
gribble: There are currently 35300.69 bitcoins offered at or under 29.0 USD, worth 746476.392038 USD in
total.
gribble: There are currently 35300.69 bitcoins offered at or under 29.0 USD, worth 746476.392038 USD in
total.
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 19.45001, Best ask: 19.52026, Bid-ask spread: 0.07025, Last
trade: 19.42100, 24 hour volume: 53313.83367467, 24 hour low: 18.70000, 24 hour high: 19.80000, 24 hour vwap: 19.35731
jurov: If nobody is
to be routinely
told exactly what a worthless, pointless accidental and undesired item
they are
then certainly nobody’s
to be
told
they’re welcome
to dream into one palm, piss in
the other and see which feels warmer
to
the
touch.
DeadWeasel: i'm pretty sure he's
transporting
them as 12" crystal meth dildos
to get past customs.
jurov: (see second recent
trilema article)
jurov: no, he's buying
twelve pound solid bricks of crystal meth
markedathome: clearly, dooglus is
trying
to out mircea_popescu as
the mystery player, why else can I get "MPEX pay SDICE with SMPOE" out of
the addresses listed in #782
malaimo: but I guess if you consider regression
to
the mean satoshidice will be fine...
malaimo: if you have a look at
the statistical analysis
thread over at bitcointalk.org you can see
that yesterday was a very bad day for s.dice
gesell: based on
the S.DICE betcount
total on Jan 1 and current count I'm seeing a %14 increase in dividends. It's a simplistic calculation. Match what everyone else
thinks or does someone have something more sound?
jurov: poor bugpowder, first
that s.dice blunder,
then
this :DDD
jurov: would you buy future for 1.7BTC
that's covered only up
to 1.95 ? i doubt
jurov: but
the cover is actually less, am searching how much it was
jurov: i have sold 20x x.idiff.mar
to bugpowder fellow for 1.7711 BTC
jurov: and buyers don't know what
to expect, let's have practical example
jurov: practically every
time you do MKFUT, collateral changes, not even saying anything about next quarters
kakobrekla: i showed
that xdiff
thingie
to a guy with ~300ghash
jurov: when i buy some and difficulty rises, when
they'll go *poof*?
jurov: how do i know how much is
the cover?
Graet: i'll read it laterm kids dinner
time mircea_popescu
mircea_popescu: course,
this is all speculation about what people may be speculating about lol.
mircea_popescu: stuff like
the recent online casinos opening btc
to
the us is prolly more pressure
than whether someone makles or loses 10k
maximian: I do anticipate
that - it makes sense
mircea_popescu: actually i imagine
the largest single factor affecting price is people's judgement of how likely a sale
to a large player is.
maximian: bowjob: s.dice is practically brand new and is just getting going - its big earning days are still ahead of us. Variances like a 9k loss
to a whale are meaningless if you're in for
the long
term.