log☇︎
967800+ entries in 0.688s
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 24.97000, Best ask: 25.07000, Bid-ask spread: 0.10000, Last trade: 25.07000, 24 hour volume: 47520.26271140, 24 hour low: 23.64560, 24 hour high: 25.75000, 24 hour vwap: 24.64565
pigeons: the bubble is over! it's going to .02
jurov: i know, just i tried to find it for like 15 seconds in vain
kakobreklaa: its not too far from what google will say regarding eur usd ratio
kakobreklaa: i never checked it there
kakobreklaa: maybe there is money to be made here
kakobreklaa: want to buy bitstamp code?
jurov: or i'll go by car to slovenia to deposit first lol
jurov: if that happens
jurov: i'm considering to use this panic to sell bitstamp usd codes :D
ThickerThanThiev: "running to get more bucks"
ThickerThanThiev: i dont think people are as liquid as that
knotwork: if it falls 20% and stays down more than an hour people will be running to get more bucks to exhcanges to buy those cheap coins
mircea_popescu: ima write this up, brb
Bugpowder: to think otherwise is classic bubble delishion
knotwork: ever since I have figured it is fundamentally worth more than $32 or at least $32
mircea_popescu: btc side can only move very little to absorb that
mircea_popescu: this is why price moves so much : fiat side can increase 1000% in two weeks on account of very small basis (in fiat terms)
Bugpowder: There will be a lot of BTC on the market when the price falls 20% and stays down for more than an hour.
knotwork: I thought $32 was just people realising the potential and pricing it in
knotwork: I dont think $32 was really a bubble at all but saying it was plus all the hacks forced it into being one, self fulfilling prophecy
mircea_popescu: the reality is closer to 5-7%. certainly under 1/4
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder there's not really that much btc on the market.
knotwork: yeah its a famous high imaged to have been a bubble
ThickerThanThiev: just the fact that we're noting $32 means it's obv people will get skittish at that point
knotwork: seems likely at $32 people will worry that higher might be "just a bubble", and of course some folk will be already thinking it *is* a bubble, so likely should slow the climb around there
mircea_popescu: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html there's more famous quotes.
knotwork: yes I think so, if it keeps shooting up as fast when it passes $32 I'll start to think its likely to burst back down to $25 to 32 range
mircea_popescu: BTC prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the BTC market a good deal higher within a few months.
JWU42: I am selling about 5% at these levels
ThickerThanThiev: I think there are more and more people putting a portion of the their weekly paycheck into BTC
knotwork: (by whether to bubble I mean whether to shoot on up more, not whether to "burst")
mircea_popescu: i think many people are psychologically invested in passing the bubble
JWU42: I thought we would stop at 20
knotwork: so I would not be surprised to see it go to $32 shortly then think about whether to bubble or just gloat a while before continuing up
JWU42: true there MP
knotwork: its looking likely now that lots of folks will think we are finally recovering to our $32 we were at back before all those hacks hit the fans
JWU42: waiting to sell anything until $100 is, to me, piggish
JWU42: as the saying goes - pigs get slaughtered
JWU42: mega is the key word there
jurov: lol i'm looking up the usd/eur rate at bitstamp's bank... and usd isn't there
JWU42: and that is a growing % of people in the US
knotwork: next time it goes toward $2 it likely wont even get there
JWU42: mircea_popescu: for some people 100K is currently 5x their lifetime savings
Bugpowder: it will never go to .01
JWU42: and for some those odds might be worth it
mircea_popescu: all bitcoins in the world for 100k ? sure, i'll take em
JWU42: well - the only reason it goes to $.01 is that the project is effectively dead and broken
pigeons: if it was .01 i could buy them all
mircea_popescu: knotwork i was trying to play teh daytrader what can i tel lyou.
JWU42: and then something goes batshit bad and BTC goes back to $.01
JWU42: so - BTC gets to $95 in 5 years
knotwork: tho likely by time it hits $100 that'd have to be changed to "anything less than $150"
knotwork: cashing out at anything less than $100 is more a daytrader thing or a desperately need the cash thing really
jurov: i have my parents lined up for buying btcs if that happens
mircea_popescu: so far im losing on that idea.
mircea_popescu: jurov i sold 200 btc's worth specifically to rebuy once price tanks back to 20.
gribble: There are currently 17410.07 bitcoins offered at or under 30.0 USD, worth 488875.899895 USD in total.
jurov: lol this is insane... just few hours ago i cashed out a bit at 24.21
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 25.31000, Best ask: 25.40000, Bid-ask spread: 0.09000, Last trade: 25.31000, 24 hour volume: 44738.61190480, 24 hour low: 23.64560, 24 hour high: 25.75000, 24 hour vwap: 24.61882
gribble: There are currently 9937.51 bitcoins offered at or under 29.0 USD, worth 266608.244608 USD in total.
pigeons: pizza was the first useful thing you could buy with bitoin
knotwork: as you could end up trapped owing something that you cannot get hold of or not at decent price
knotwork: borrowing is always dangerous but particularly so for things there arent many of
ThickerThanThiev: that pizza article made it to BBC too
knotwork: and maybe borrow some other coin that seems overpriced or at least not at a crazy low
knotwork: now instead its time to buy all those cheap devcoins to pay back the loans
knotwork: that worked great with devcoins for a while but now devcoins are so crazy cheap its looking dangerous that they might go back up before you pay back the loan
mircea_popescu: knotwork that's very dangerous.
knotwork: shorting something else to buy bitcoins might be best maybe, such as borrow some other type of coin using bitcoins as colalteral, and sell what you borrow to buy more bitcoins to use as more collateral etc
mircea_popescu: i wonder what the trouble is
mjr_: and you have way more accounting to do
knotwork: kind of abstractly using my increased riches to buy more bitcoins, without actually spending my bitcoins to do so since they *are* my riches
mjr_: so if i can scoop up cheap coins on camp bx, or bitfloor, i would, simply cuz i plan on holding them
knotwork: yeah that is what I'd like to be able to do
mjr_: yeah, well, i mostly use the strategies i've said to try to get as long as possible, for as little money as possible
mircea_popescu: i think book is deceptive, as btc ppl are very impatient.
pigeons: yeah i see high prices at havelock, then i look at the order size, right
mircea_popescu: i doubt there's 100 bux to be made working campbx/stamp/mtgox/w/e
mircea_popescu: there's like, what, 3-4 btc worth to be made arbing that ?
mjr_: not enough volatitliy and razor thin margins cuz of transferring money back and forth
mircea_popescu: i mean, take the havelock/mpex s.dice difference.
mjr_: they are already taken
mircea_popescu: i think arbing the fiat exchanges is more work than it's worth.
pigeons: how many though
mjr_: especially very early in the morning or late at night
mircea_popescu: still some decoupling, but as btc mkt cap increases there will be less and less.
mjr_: it is more bullish bitcoin than anything
knotwork: I missed opportunities I could have in theory got by selling high and buying back in low but I could not be sure there would ever be a low to buy back in at
mircea_popescu: mjr_ selling calls on the usd or buying calls on the btc are very similar i think
knotwork: they went down from $32 but lately its finally looking like they are recovering
mjr_: yes, i would definitely sell calls on the US dollar
mircea_popescu: knotwork very true.
knotwork: yeah nice thing about just holding one's coins indefinitely is it doesnt need much/any thought
mjr_: well...aren't there options on currency?
mjr_: it's just hard when pretty much i think "it's going up"
mircea_popescu: unlike forexy things where you just mash the buy/sell buttons
mircea_popescu: the only thing is, it needs thinking
mircea_popescu: or buy them back
mircea_popescu: or if you sold puts short, you can sell calls too