966600+ entries in 0.724s
mjr_: and i
think he has started
mjr_: but,
the guy is
trying
to pay back at least
DeadWeasel: well, i'll just watch for now,
thanks mircea_popescu
mircea_popescu: so, i wouldn't keep btc
there. but if you're ok with
the risk, hey.
mircea_popescu: DeadWeasel
they had a breach and currently owe
the customerbase btc
DeadWeasel: good security? safe
to keep btc
there?
mjr_: the bank of america option is
the way
to go
DeadWeasel: nice, i just reg'd last night. didn't have
time
to explore.
mjr_: i got my money in
there in a half hour with no ID, and i
think a $2 fee
mjr_: by
the way, bitfloor is my new favorite exchange
mjr_: hehehe, it is fun
trying
to front run people :)
mjr_: but seriously, you get
the upside, we get
the downside
mjr_: for
the most part, no offense
to any bankers
mjr_: bailout was a very dirty word back
then
mircea_popescu: cause "everyone" knew if it comes
to it fed is going
to pick jpm
to save
mjr_: i'm actually reading "too big
to fail" right now
mircea_popescu: and at
that
time, citi and boa seemed primed for
the same fate iirc.
mjr_: cuz
they get scared
mircea_popescu: depends. some
things actually go out.
that's why i picked leh.
mjr_: but what
they end up doing is buying at
the
top of
the hill and selling at
the bottom
mircea_popescu: ya well, you don't know if it ever recovers is
their idea
mjr_: i'm down 4% on MPOE, i am going
to double my position
mjr_: because you want
to own something
that is profitable and you don't want
to own something
that is down
mjr_: they wait
till
they lose
their profit and are down and
then
they sell
mjr_: and i say you want me
to flatten it?
mjr_: i have seen people call up
to check a position
mircea_popescu: advisors are actually
telling people like stanford
to sell when price goes down, and
the more it goes down
the more
to sell
mjr_: it is counter
to normal
mjr_: and i see a lot of people do
that
mircea_popescu: reason and emotion use
the same circuitry but different heuristics is all
mjr_: they are a lot smarter, but still, driven by emotion
to some degree
mjr_: they could literally not care less about what
the company does
mjr_: in fact, some of
them just buy and sell at
the same price just
to make liquidity rebates
mjr_: i
think everyone gives
these people WAY
too much credit
mjr_: which doesn't care about any of
that
mjr_: to make a penny or
two
mjr_: they are riding
the emotions of others
mjr_: they are scalping and playing around,
they have no idea of fundamentals
iz: well, i'm glad i could help illustate your point
there
then :D
mjr_: yeah...the prop
traders i see...they are super inside
iz: so if it seems "irrational", maybe it's just
that you haven't seen all
the data everyone else has
mjr_: what you
think is best
iz: there's more data
there,
than just
the earnings
mod6: AMZN beat (barely iirc) and it went up a bunch
too -- until
the following week where exuberance dropped. I
think
traders were spooked by
the -1.0% GDP print... and any good earnings news was like "heaven sent"
mjr_: irrational markets, focused on short
term
mircea_popescu: mjr_
the key is if
they find a new jobs.
they don't,
they're dead.
iz: netflix also secured big exclusive contracts with 2 major studios in
the future
mjr_: but i made more money
than you expected
mjr_: still
though, i sold a record # of widgets...ok you suck, we don't want your stock
mjr_: get a straddle and just play
the volatility
mircea_popescu: ya well, netflix didn't have every hipster
tard on
their wagon
mjr_: to
try
to cater
to a fickle market
mjr_: how many
times have i seen a company BEAT earnings and STILL get smoked
mjr_: but
then again it is nyc
mjr_: they want
to see pretty green arrows
mjr_: but convincing joe six pack
that you know best about servers or
the
tech market is
too
tough
mod6: mircea_popescu: could be. lot of companies upped
their dividened payments before
the end of '12
to front-run
the up coming
tax hikes.
mjr_: ie. it may be best
to invest ahead of
the growth curve for a while,
take a loss, for future gain
mjr_: public companies divorce
the interest of
the company from
the interest of
the owner
mircea_popescu: mod6 i suspect
they have some wicked
tax avoidance idea
they'll
tery
mjr_: you can
think long
term
mjr_: no more worrying about what analysts have
to say
mod6: they must have some awful shit on
the books, or
they couldn't get it
to an attractive price for a buyer, otherwise why
take it private?
mjr_: oh, i love
the idea
mircea_popescu: i never quite understood
this
taking private business.
mjr_: btc/usd could affect
that but
that remains
to be seen
mjr_: dell is being
taken private
mod6: its a joke from
the Dell commericals
mjr_: so my point is
that
the revenue
they bring in and
the dividends
they pay is way more likely
to change
the share price
than
the price of btc at
the moment
mjr_: i am not at all interested in mining hardware speculation, if
they deliver
they deliver
mod6: yeah.
there were massive bets and everything iirc.
mjr_: again,
the
two are not
the same
mircea_popescu: people would
take
things like "diff will be under 50mn" at even money etc.
mjr_: even
though btc is up
mircea_popescu: 100 btc bet
then worth like 700 or w/e, 200 btc won now worth like 5k ?
mjr_: as opposed
to just
taking
the ride on btc, i am basically doubling down my bet
mircea_popescu: well if you want
to look art it
this way, i was making bets on diff
this year as far back as aug/sept 2012
mjr_: i am happy with
that
mjr_: i hope
to get 3% on my position