log☇︎
963200+ entries in 0.663s
jurov: i can do it, too
thestringpuller: push them to smickles
mircea_popescu: i'll get rid of it one of these days, but what's the hurry.
mircea_popescu: i kept it on the books there for months, then eventually when we were preparing to launch bitbet i moved it to k.kbrl
mircea_popescu: so the entire mpex community didn't end up scammed
mircea_popescu: that deal fell through.
mircea_popescu: Namworld it was originally, believe it or not, preparing for a bitbond listing (amazingrando's thing)
Namworld: K.KBRL seems like Ka.KoBRekLa, the manager of this channel.
Bugpowder: That was the 10k shorted then rebought.
Bugpowder: [15:40] <Namworld> but 70k puts bought at 33-35... these are worth almost nothing by now. Those were last month right?
Bugpowder: thestringpuller: get you them?
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves more an inside joke than anything
Namworld: Well expect to repeat every few years I guess.
mircea_popescu: values 1 to 20 worked fine for like 6 months
mircea_popescu: i totally can't believe i had to do this once a month ffs.
mircea_popescu: the bot is going to quote under supervision for the next hour or so, trades may be reverted.
mircea_popescu: the even values will be exercised normally after which they will no longer be offered.
Namworld: eh, that's better
mircea_popescu: new option strikes available, 5 to 75.
jborkl: mp, I have imported and signed the new key- It will not work until the 10th, correct
Namworld: just like calls might have been executed early to take profit. It's hard to evaluate.
mircea_popescu: Namworld i think that was covered tho
Namworld: might have been exercised at some point between then and now.
Namworld: but 70k puts bought at 33-35... these are worth almost nothing by now.
mjr__: it would take a million and a half to move it to 28 i think
Namworld: I can make that person believe the price is currently 0.30 USD/BTC and he should stop loss...
Namworld: Unless someone drops 500k BTC on the market RIGHT NOW
Namworld: oh yeah... apparently I chose the wrong time for those options
Bugpowder: I think were most of the action
Bugpowder: lyspooner: there hasn't been that much volume this moth
lyspooner: why are the next months' volumes so low? usually by this time there's some open interest worth talking about
Bugpowder: If it gets to 40, then maybe add some more
mircea_popescu: so am i adding options to 50 or to 85 ?
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 30.53481, Best ask: 30.61690, Bid-ask spread: 0.08209, Last trade: 30.82357, 24 hour volume: 63933.39569825, 24 hour low: 29.67001, 24 hour high: 31.30000, 24 hour vwap: 30.39600
Bugpowder: and tomorrow
Bugpowder: rp44 There is massive and increasing risk of retracement today
rp44: any perceived risk for a retracement today? seems like there is still accelerating buying at the exchanges.
mod6: well, i think since we owe them, and basically we buy all their shit, is that not economic conquring?
Bugpowder: BTW your analogy about china conquering the US reflects more upon the folly of inference from archeological scraps that on the reality of the current power structure.
mod6: i've read a lot of russian lit, and someday if things are ever better in this world, I'd like to visit.
mircea_popescu: "because the engineer changed the engine for a bottle of vodka.
mircea_popescu: after a few hours they get impatient
mircea_popescu: "because the engineer is changing the engine".
mircea_popescu: buncha people inside a train car stopped in the middle of nowhere. they ask the conductor why aren't they moving ?
mircea_popescu: mod6 there's an old joke, goes something like this :
mod6: Each half-liter bottle of vodka was exchanged for ten liters of gasoline, giving vodka far greater effective energy density than rocket fuel.
mod6: jurov: thanks for that link
mircea_popescu: so basically... i need to add more option lines.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 30.80001, Best ask: 30.88023, Bid-ask spread: 0.08022, Last trade: 30.80001, 24 hour volume: 61512.77047919, 24 hour low: 29.67001, 24 hour high: 31.30000, 24 hour vwap: 30.38853
Bowjob: Can we stop the madness
jurov: and germany won the WWII
mircea_popescu: not my point tho.
Bugpowder: In 1986 everyone thought Japan owned the US and soon the world
mircea_popescu: if we were archeologists we'd look at the items we find and say yes it was.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder so has china conquered the us ?
TomServo: with USD being the reserve currency
TomServo: mircea_popescu: correct I'm just speculating - it just seems like common sense though.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder i don't see why you think those two are categorically distinct. seems the same thing to me.
mircea_popescu: TomServo this is a theory. we have no actual history to back it yet.
Bugpowder: vs internal collapse due to debt/corruption
TomServo: mircea_popescu: so america collapsing isn't going to just affect america
mircea_popescu: in general arts trail.
Bugpowder: How many of these collapses were due to outside influence 'changing the game'
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder some of the best surviving roman architecture is from right before and right after collapse.
Bugpowder: Like, the metro to Santa Monica is almost complete and there are some really nice parks being built.
mircea_popescu: i am pretty sure the correct model for understanding them is financial crisis.
TomServo: mircea_popescu: well, the roman collapse didn't affect anything going on in america at the time.
Bugpowder: I would think that the collapse would be more obvious ahead of time.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder black swan events. fat tail. all that jazz.
Bugpowder: BUT... the probability that in any given generation a collapse will occur rather than a muddling through is pretty low
TomServo: All good examples. I guess the difference this time being the 'shrinking' of the globe?
mircea_popescu: the hittite empire collapsed completely. the hellenistic empire (larger than any other, incidentally) did likewise
mircea_popescu: chinese society collapsed like 6 or 7 times
Bugpowder: It's driving the 24vwap up though
mircea_popescu: napoelon's france collapsed, royal france collapsed before that
mircea_popescu: the old south collapsed as such after the civil war. the british empire did the same.
mircea_popescu: TomServo the obvious one is the fall of the roman empire.
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 30.25000, Best ask: 30.66940, Bid-ask spread: 0.41940, Last trade: 30.25000, 24 hour volume: 61491.24221722, 24 hour low: 29.67001, 24 hour high: 31.30000, 24 hour vwap: 30.38573
mircea_popescu: in catastrophic situations knowing the right people is most valuable.
mircea_popescu: jurov now you know why the secret service people ended up entrepreneurs
jurov: by the way, you'll come around some tokens, too
jurov: i don't believe in some value tokens so much. i think rather having web of out-of-box thinking people is the key to survival.
mircea_popescu: the thing is tho, human society does collapse periodically.
Bugpowder: instead of sacrificing people to the volcano
mircea_popescu: it was discussed in the same terms and with the same motivs in like 1400
Bugpowder: The society collapse narrative is really driven by people that want to sell you gold, guns and ammo.
mircea_popescu: eat your girlfriends and fuck your wine for that's all you take with you!
mircea_popescu: the end of the world is nigh!
Bugpowder: short term top?
mod6: ok i gotta get some thing to eat.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder topic was us collapse not btc.
Bugpowder: how is that relevant?
mod6: hhaha, even if you are and your portfolio is worth 100bn, you won't be able to buy 6 eggs with that.
Bugpowder: Are we talking about global debt crisis or bitcoin prices, BTW?
mod6: but when the music stops, I hope you're not long.
Bugpowder: yes but there are many ways it could play out
mod6: all ponzi schemes do come to an end though...
Bugpowder: while you guys are all stressing about the end of the system. I'm going ride it up again.
mod6: Maybe I'm way off and this comedy will continue for 50 years...
Bugpowder: and ride the next asset bubble