948900+ entries in 0.672s
mircea_popescu: it allows for easy separation between bulls and bears by
taking advantage of
the
the nature of options
mircea_popescu: on average,
they expect 39.31 next week.
the call side expects 57.59,
the put side 37.32
Guest7560: What do
the 2nd and 3rd values mean?
Guest7560: mircea_popescu:
Thanks! So 39.31 (57.59 / 37.62) means sentiment is
that it's going down
Bowjob: so
the
traders
think BTC will go down
to 39.31
mircea_popescu: it sums up what
the option
traders
think
the price will be next week
Guest7560: (I've read
the blog article - still confused)
Guest7560: Anybody can explain
the mpex oix in laymens
terms?
FabianB: yeah, i guess it's just a few characters needed for
the 1d avg
mircea_popescu: smickles, could $vwap be cleaned up a little so
that
the 1 more msg
thing is not printed ? perhaps
take out all
the u
too
FabianB: let me
turn
that off for a moment
FabianB: yeah, if it wouldn't at
the end say "(1 more message)" ;)
Bowjob: i feel
that fuckup on
the
twelth kinda killed
the rally
Bowjob: we're actually less
thatn 10.8m
tiberiusiv: which is very low compared
to
the 10.8 mil coins
mircea_popescu: you know in spite of
the spikes avg volume is like 20-30k
Bowjob: the volume sucks
though
Bowjob: yawn, we've been declining
today
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 46.50001, Best ask: 46.64899, Bid-ask spread: 0.14898, Last
trade: 46.50001, 24 hour volume: 19605.08858072, 24 hour low: 46.27070, 24 hour high: 47.44999, 24 hour vwap: 46.91298
mircea_popescu: tiberiusiv
that's why i regularly use
the 30day price figures for mkt cap, and
the 24 hour averages for btc prices on option pricing and so forth.
tiberiusiv: bowjob: market caps should be used
to determine value, its better
then price
tiberiusiv: bowjob: market caps
tend
to be BS in
the real world,
they are based off of
the last sale irrelevant of volume
midnightmagic: Bowjob: No. He didn't want
to be involved in all
the conflict. People kept coming in and insisting
the code was shit. Except people like Hal Finney.. but
they were so rare
that
they were drowned out in
the noise. And
then people were suggesting
too early
that wikileaks start using it and and and.. :)
Bowjob: I
thought Satoshi had "better
things
to do"
mircea_popescu: the solution is quite simple : don't get politically involved. stick
to writing code.
midnightmagic: It's pretty stressful for
them,
the abuse. It's actually
the reason why Satoshi left. Did you know
that?
Namworld: No, it might have been bought earlier for cheaper. It's a C for call, so yeah,
taking profits.
Bowjob: just
taking profits
then
midnightmagic: And by "with
the devs onboard" I just mean cooperation and expertise
transfer.
Bowjob: If BTC reaches 39 dollars,
this dude gets money?
mircea_popescu: heh calls are covering. either
they're right and a
top is in
midnightmagic: I
think a strong, with-the-devs-onboard alternate implementation
to create client heterogeny would probably be a welcome relief for most of
them.
Namworld: Anyway, almost 4 am... I
think I'll be heading off.
Namworld: that's not really
the point but yeah.
mircea_popescu: im not saying it's impossible
to move
the actual implementation as it is into shape by incremental improvements ftr.
Bowjob: you cant find someone willing
to pay 500m for 10.8m BTCs
midnightmagic: It was supposed
to just be a reference implementation, never
The Real one. Even Gavin has made many and numerous noises about how much better off bitcoin would be with multiple implementations.
Bowjob: imo
that market cap number is bullshit
midnightmagic: I
thought so at first. But
then it's been my experience since
then
that each strange decision ended up having long-reaching, and resilience-related consequences for
the distant future.
mircea_popescu: in
terms of, fuck it, it's not supposed
to work long
term, it's stupposed
to show how
this could work
Namworld: Reddit
thing is about premium subscriptions sales. I don't know of many premium subscription service which allows
to cash out said subscription...
mircea_popescu: midnightmagic wwithout having
talked
to
the man, it is my impression he basically wrote a spec and
then hacked
together a mcguyver implementation he didn't
think much of
midnightmagic: Namworld: Is it possible
to withdraw BTC *from* reddit?
Namworld: Yeah, but at
the price of electronics, 1 user could easily fit 1k USD on average.
That's like 100 - 500 buyers
total.
midnightmagic: +1 for multiple implementations. It is in fact something
that Satoshi hoped would happen much earlier
than where we are in bitcoin adoption.
Bowjob: id actually use it.. but
then again
Anduck: still
theyve sold pretty much
Bowjob: not as bad as you
think, but pretty bad
Namworld: and
too many fucks up
to come ahead
to get major capital invested in
the near future.
Namworld: Either way, I don't believe
there's enough of a genuine userbase growth
to sustain
those prices.
Namworld: Something close
to 10% of sales. A good amount considering it's BTC and
the low usage among
the general population.
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 46.50000, Best ask: 46.61000, Bid-ask spread: 0.11000, Last
trade: 46.61000, 24 hour volume: 19651.52807249, 24 hour low: 46.27070, 24 hour high: 47.44999, 24 hour vwap: 46.91393
Namworld: Reddit had massive BTC sales initially.
Then it lowered and lowered
to peanuts.
Namworld: bitcoinstore was a good way
to cash out BTC usefully. Probably done by
the existing userbase who now had an opportunity at last
to put
their coins
to good use. What's
the point now
that
they're filled up on electronics
they need if
there's not more users
to keep buying?
BitHub: but not everyone is gon do
that
Bowjob: might as well just pay in btc,
that way, you dont hurt
the sell value
BitHub: if 99% of people
that have bitcoin said "okey we're all holding
till it hits $1000" well
then could be a prob
Namworld: I'm expecting a sharp correction
to somewhere like
the steady growth
throughout 2012 would have us at.
mircea_popescu: "Hello guys, I am a psychologist in
training and I would like
to offer my knowledge, insight and experience with understanding women."
Anduck: bitcoinstore got sold over 100k usd worth of stuff in pretty small
time
Namworld: The current price is very interesting
to most holders...
Bowjob: with
the demmurage fee
Bowjob: isnt
this what freicoin is
trying
to fix
Namworld: The genuine userbase is growing slower. And
the Bitcoin software ain't ready either.
BitHub: not everyone is going
to hold for over 5 years
tho
Namworld: Okay, merchants now accept BTC, but what's
the point without
the spending userbase and just speculators buying up on
the next big
thing?
Namworld: western union, people will still mostly use Paypal when available.
Taking
the
time
to get Bitcoin is an extra step which is not required. Growth comes from people adopting Bitcoins out of
the need
to use
them of for
their property as money and actually getting implicated
to actual do as much
transactions
they need
to do in Bitcoins if available.
Namworld: Well reddit's BTC acceptance seems
to be failing
too. I
think many newcomers/investors/older bitcoiners were buying on
the premise of more merchants accepting Bitcoins. But if
the userbase only grows by speculators/accepting merchants, it's not really working out. We need people spending
those BTC. And it's not going
to happen merely because merchants now accept BTC. Merchants can accept
mircea_popescu: it was a
tough sell,
the events of
the 12th were
the kiss of death.
mircea_popescu: the run-up was pretty much driven by everyone's wish on both sides of
the divide
to merge btc and some finance.
Namworld: Someone might just be in need of
the funds however.
Namworld: I'm
thinking
the latest grow might be exaggerated... I still consider
the ideal value per BTC
to be around 16-18 USD/BTC (and raising). But I'm not sure if
the current price is warranted.
mircea_popescu: i was just about
to say hm,
the calls covering, are we in for a drop ?
Bowjob: dice not looking
too good?
mircea_popescu: seriously
tho, who is handling gift certs
these days ?
Bowjob: i
take it molec will ship before BFL
moleccc: Namworld,
this is exactly what I was hoping for: people buying more
than 1 ;)
Namworld: Can I pay on monday? I'm expecting a payment
then. I don't want
to get all my bids on exchange shifted around.
Bowjob: now
this sucks, my wallet says 199
mircea_popescu: i'm not gonna weigh your bottom line down, i can get as many coins as i want for myself, but nice way
to spread
the love.
moleccc: ah, you guys found my
thread ;)