942300+ entries in 0.637s
Bowjob: Bah, idk about
those butthurt
trolls
Bowjob: You are showing your outward anger because you know you make close
to no sense. If anything,
this statement is worded vaguely enough
that it should be considered a bad bet.
The bottom line is
that if you go by
the betting statement wording and
the dates,
there are
two batches under pre-order. Good attempt
to sway betting action by writing a ridiculously vague statement,
though. Read
the betting statement word for word as it's
mircea_popescu: there's such a
thing as
too much attention, and so forth
mircea_popescu: tbh, from a macro perspective 100+ is prolly
too much.
cads: KRS1: hehe, no worries, it was just some meaningless
teasing
KRS1: Avalon seemed
to have raied
their prices?
Namworld: Yeah, well it's got
to be losing steam by now
KRS1: I
treaded mircea_popescu how?
Namworld: I'd really like
to see
the 100 breached.
Namworld: Is it really peaking
tho? It's weekend and price seems
to be holding
cads: KRS1: aww
that's cute how you
treat mircea_popescu as
the BTC godfather
cads: despite not being... entirely needed at
the
time
Bowjob: well, half of it is probably done
through
trading
cads: yeah, games are nice, but
trade center plans are nicer
Bowjob: i have 1800 hrs clocked in
that game
mircea_popescu: what's
that virtual reality game ? not second life,
the other one
KRS1: Am I wrong by saying it looks like
the market has peaked and is now heading downward?
mircea_popescu: only
to discover
that no, bitcoin is not instantaneous
cads: some plan
to design a building for someone
mircea_popescu: there were people who waited for btc/usd
to be 49.99 before betting
mircea_popescu: yeah well, people
thinking
they'll leech everyone else don't historically do so well on bitbet
Bowjob: they
think
they;ll win by
technicality since at
the
time, batch 2 was included
Bowjob: because
they
thought it includes batch 2
Bowjob: hey mp, some people are bitching
that
they bet on
the Avalon bet
mircea_popescu: {mircea_popescu} mpex is here
to arm bitcoin with all
the high impact high efficiency weapons fiat currencies have.
mircea_popescu: {mircea_popescu} people don’t understand many
things, chief among which
that
the world is at war, and finance is
the means of
that war.
cads: in
the sense
that derivatives is what will give BTC
the depth and complexity needed
to
take on
the real world
cads: I
think it will determine
the long
term fate of
the btc
mircea_popescu: even
tiny minute
things done in five minutes
today will be a career down
the road.
cads: well I'd better know how
to speak bitcoin before
the hiring managers at large hedge funds realize it :)
mircea_popescu: even leaving aside
the conference
trail clowns,
the ideological
types and all
the geek weirdoes,
mircea_popescu: i would guess about a
third of
the best minds of
this generation are more or less discreetly circling
the matter.
cads: using BTC and its derivatives as
the lesson ground and
the
tournament ground for
the students
cads: I can
turn
this into a virtual finance university in
time
cads: mircea_popescu: at least I will not be competing with well established finance phds already working in
the field :)
mircea_popescu: especially considering what
training
traders costs on
the fiat markets.
mircea_popescu: with
the current run up i'm not sure i'd call it low cost, but it IS moderate
cads: mircea_popescu: yeah, even if mpex and btc are superseded, what agents learn about
this market will be valuable in
the future
mircea_popescu: certainly
the best phds of
the future will b done on bitcoin/mpex/whatever
mircea_popescu: so
the more people
thinking about it
the better, a fertile field as it's called.
mircea_popescu: the
thing is new, price data extends little in
the past,
there's a lot of weirdness in
the market
cads: mircea_popescu: at
this point I'd like only
to understand how
to imagine, visualize, and refine an mpex investment strategy
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 67.11000, Best ask: 67.29998, Bid-ask spread: 0.18998, Last
trade: 67.29998, 24 hour volume: 67513.96570233, 24 hour low: 65.00000, 24 hour high: 73.69900, 24 hour vwap: 69.98189
mircea_popescu: but
this is just a sidepoint. if you're looking
to invest btc what are you going
to do ?
mircea_popescu: anyway, mpex charges .2% seller only. if you make .5 round
trip
then .3 difference will yiueld 30 btc over 10k
traded.
cads: mircea_popescu: so I could work with a 500 BTC base an recoup
the entry cost over a handful of months?
mircea_popescu: you know it occurs
to me... when new person
takes an hour just
to gaze at
the edges of
this
thing...
mircea_popescu: last calculation i recall something like 2k btc
total
trade volume justifies
the fee
cads: "if you have
to ask...."
cads: mircea_popescu: how much money is good enough
to play?
cads: mircea_popescu: what
type of option is
traded on
the mpex?
cads: since I'm most interested in options, and since
these
traditionally have
theory, I'm now wondering if any of
these guys have paid analysts
to derive appropriatate new pricing models for
these options
cads: do investors in mpex generally pay
their own analysts, for example?
cads: and am wondering what additional decision making measures
these investors generally adopt, above and beyond basic investment strategies
cads: or else
they risk wasting
the sizeable initial fee
cads: I mean only
that it seems
they must guarantee
that
their decisions are of high quality
mircea_popescu: they mustn't do anything.
they do what
they please,. buy, sell , whatever
cads: and what must
they do, from a decision making standpoint - average investors make decisions based on gut. Do
these investors use quant as well?
mircea_popescu: but anyway, since option stuff was your main interest, read up on
the oix
Namworld: I already paid
the cost of
the seat plenty
cads: can I learn what investors at
the exchange do?
mircea_popescu: and most wouldn't know what
to do with it if
they had it.
mircea_popescu: average investors are not expected
to buy
themselves a seat at
the exchange
cads: and
the investors can justify
this cost in expected revenue?
cads: mircea_popescu: do we still have
to pay 30 BTC in fees for account registration?
mircea_popescu: well, you can go
through
the MPEx category on
trilema,
there's a lot of stuff
there
cads: right now I'm not reading anything
technical with
the intention of
trying
to understand it :)
cads: I can generally eventually converge on an understanding of
technojargon, even without help
mircea_popescu: like pympex, coinbr,
there's also a windows gui and a phone one in
the works
mircea_popescu: a good section of
tools etc were actually developed by community peeps
cads: I may even mean
that as a compliment
cads: no offense, if
this is you
cads: I want
to shake his hand and punch him at
the same
time
cads: who
the fuck coded all
this?
cads: mircea_popescu: oh
thanks
to dogs
there is a faq.
mircea_popescu: mpex stands as an insult
to
the intelligence of
the average voter.
cads: I'm glad I'm not hallucinating,
then. :)
mircea_popescu: anyway,
the O.BTCUSD stuff,
those are all option lines
cads: mircea_popescu: as of
this moment what I see when I look at mpex.co is a hellacious mass of legal jargon smattered with quantitative data readouts :)
assbot: Yeah. No damn
tobacco,
that's for sure.
cads: hey mircea_popescu, I just noticed
the romanian version of your charter