933800+ entries in 0.655s
jurov: i know i'm unfair and disgruntled sometimes... but you seem really
to have a problem even
to hire PR and evangelist
ThickAsThieves: their max payout is last settlement * 2.9, which is <
the sell price
ChaangNoi: ltc goes from 5 cents
to $1.40 in no
time
jurov: few fools are willing
to invest into anything mpex-related
jurov: or perhaps mp expects someone other do do all
the computations and dirty work, but
that isn't working
ThickAsThieves: man,
those sure are some cheap IDIFFJUN futures listed, someone should snatch
them up
jurov: then investor comes
to result
that it's covered somewhere between 0.14 and 0.27
jurov: just
that it needs research what
the previous settlements were
ThickAsThieves: it's okay, i see your
take on it, and wanting
to use hard numbers, but all i'm
trying
to do is get you
to open
the idea of finding a formula
that is more likely
to be useful in
the current environment
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves
that's how futurtes work. settlement
to settlement.
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 101.05100, Best ask: 101.50000, Bid-ask spread: 0.44900, Last
trade: 101.05100, 24 hour volume: 56319.87614438, 24 hour low: 91.00000, 24 hour high: 101.00000, 24 hour vwap: 95.98390
mircea_popescu: so what, if he cancels
the bid
the futures dissapear from his account ?
mircea_popescu: he makes
the chosen price 1 satoshi, deposts 1.25 satoshi per
mircea_popescu: this is perfectly fine, but
they are different
things.
mircea_popescu: can you underwrite some with jurov and sell
them
to him ?
ThickAsThieves: they use a price
that is reasonable, for a potential payout
that is reasonable
jurov: and also marketmaking
them
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 100.98001, Best ask: 101.00000, Bid-ask spread: 0.01999, Last
trade: 101.00000, 24 hour volume: 54713.02069310, 24 hour low: 91.00000, 24 hour high: 101.00000, 24 hour vwap: 95.83748
mircea_popescu: this doesn't work, because market
traded contracts have
to be standardised.
mircea_popescu: ok, well...
the other
thing i got was "make each idifff a different, user specified contract"
mircea_popescu: if it were 3.1x, even less
than nobody would be underwriting it.
gribble: There are currently 8865.2797 bitcoins offered at or under 110.0 USD, worth 940190.755187 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 5.5899 seconds
mircea_popescu: jurov dividends are shown as
the sum of div
transactions in mpex.
ThickAsThieves: just feels stubborn
to me, you could be offering a feature
that people would use much more
jurov: or if
that's beyond mpex mission,
then don't show dividends either
mircea_popescu: i'm not increasing collateral maargin for
the simple reason
that even as it is underwriting is dismal.
mircea_popescu: ie, a case where diff increases > 3x during 3 months.
this isn't normal.
mircea_popescu: of course i am.
this is exactly what we have here, an extreme
mircea_popescu: then
the system "would work" in all fringe cases, except nobody will depost 1k btc for a 1btc contract
jurov: if i'm
taking September 19 into account
Bugpowdurr: my iphone
ticker cant display
the price??
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 100.00000, Best ask: 100.90000, Bid-ask spread: 0.90000, Last
trade: 99.98000, 24 hour volume: 53736.31362686, 24 hour low: 91.00000, 24 hour high: 100.00000, 24 hour vwap: 95.75237
pgp: here come
the post 100 froth...
jurov: okay, not
to get flamey, for public record:
ThickAsThieves: do you agree
that
the odds of IDIFFJUN closing at any sort of profit are nigh impossible?
jurov: better clearly mark
them
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves hopefully
the network stabilises and we'll be fine.
jurov: you just shoot
the 0.07 number which isn't
true
jurov: mircea_popescu but you know now how easy is
to get false information
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves obviously it's a
trade-off. 2.9 might not be optimal in some fringe cases
gribble: There are currently 35118439 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 9804244.95426 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 57.1263 seconds
gribble: Next difficulty estimate | 7647329.85957 based on data since last change | 8527812.32019 based on data for last
three days
mircea_popescu: if you don't know what diff was you can't
trade futures
mircea_popescu: jurov like, if you don't know what btc/usd is you can't
trade options
gribble: There are currently 1143.0168 bitcoins offered at or under 100.1 USD, worth 114294.520819 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 0.0008 seconds
ThickAsThieves: because odds are
that
the diff will be much higher
than your minimum payout
mircea_popescu: that's exactly it : you know you won't get less
than x.
mircea_popescu: so each and every single contract has
to be specified independently.
mircea_popescu: no example. if you make contracvts any way you want, what's
the buyer supposed
to buy ?
ThickAsThieves: i make one anytime i want for any amount, covered
to any man payout i want
ThickAsThieves: if
the futures were simply offered under simpler
terms at will, wouldnt
that still work
mircea_popescu: you will only get ~half of what you originally
thought you will get.
mircea_popescu: now if you had bought a contract back in july
thinking it's 4.95 covered
gribble: There are currently 34918304 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 10082902.8829 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 74.5978 seconds
gribble: (bids [--under] <pricetarget>) -- Calculate
the amount of bitcoin demanded at or over <pricetarget>. If '--under' option is given, find coins or at or under <pricetarget>.
mircea_popescu: how much should someone have
to pay per option at
that date ?
mircea_popescu: if you create one X.IDIFF.MAR future, you will have
to pay 2.9**4*.07 as collateral.
ThickAsThieves: si it's possible for me
to sell at a price
that has 0% of profit
ThickAsThieves: if i resell
these at .15 and
theyre original
top is .139, what happens for
the new buyer?
mircea_popescu: because executions must be allocated uniformly
to old and new contracts.
ThickAsThieves: they could simply be written as offer price, max payout price, with no relation
to past settlements, no?