log☇︎
928500+ entries in 0.653s
MJR__: ThickAsThieves: it is ponzi mode EXCEPT that believing makes it true in some ways
ThickAsThieves: its appalling how little the average person cares about inflation, etc
MJR__: I think in 2016, monetary policy will be big during elections
ThickAsThieves: rising this quickly is totally ponzi mode, so increasing risk of people left holding the bag
MJR__: and now seems to be the time...
MJR__: and while I don't want it to grow too fast, it's no ones to control
MJR__: we will see many things launched in San Jose in may
MJR__: we'll see, but I think this will be known as the summer of bitcoin
ThickAsThieves: i'm thinking 185 at end of option period
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 155.01201, Best ask: 155.95871, Bid-ask spread: 0.94670, Last trade: 155.95871, 24 hour volume: 33977.68618309, 24 hour low: 141.31000, 24 hour high: 157.00000, 24 hour vwap: 147.18995
ThickAsThieves: bots are probably that bad yet, I think there have been a fair amount of buys that haven't broke even yet.
taub: mircea_popescu: are the bots losses big yet?
gribble: There are currently 31163186 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 11546304.8383 USD in total. | Data vintage: 54.2963 seconds
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 155.00000, Best ask: 155.19999, Bid-ask spread: 0.19999, Last trade: 155.00000, 24 hour volume: 33890.45484523, 24 hour low: 141.10000, 24 hour high: 157.00000, 24 hour vwap: 147.00146
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 155.00000, Best ask: 156.94419, Bid-ask spread: 1.94419, Last trade: 155.00000, 24 hour volume: 31538.74456478, 24 hour low: 141.10000, 24 hour high: 154.00000, 24 hour vwap: 146.28584
gribble: MtGox lag is 107.523063 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.215475014364 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin between Earth and Venus at their closest approach (0.254 AU).
gribble: MtGox lag is 67.013025 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.134293351785 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin ten times between Jupiter and Callisto (0.12567 AU).
gribble: There are currently 2082.1976 bitcoins offered at or under 159.0 USD, worth 323973.73347 USD in total. | Data vintage: 57.7730 seconds
gribble: Next difficulty estimate | 9035656.70557 based on data since last change | 8255413.27355 based on data for last three days
ChaangNo_: well im off to dinner peace
ChaangNo_: not even 1 m usd to 165 lol
gribble: There are currently 4250.6917 bitcoins offered at or under 165.0 USD, worth 678554.100851 USD in total. | Data vintage: 37.7185 seconds
gribble: There are currently 1744.9707 bitcoins offered at or under 159.0 USD, worth 272416.846437 USD in total. | Data vintage: 21.3470 seconds
anarchy5: thats at least several thousand people wanting to wire huge amounts of money
gribble: There are currently 20470.759 bitcoins offered at or under 225.0 USD, worth 3665049.412 USD in total. | Data vintage: 0.0017 seconds
gribble: There are currently 31169744 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 11568570.0482 USD in total. | Data vintage: 114.3914 seconds
ChaangNo_: we could see 225 easy this week
anarchy5: that should tell you enough
anarchy5: ChaangNo_: you can bet your ass on it, my friend is number 13630 in the verification queue lol
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 153.00000, Best ask: 153.58998, Bid-ask spread: 0.58998, Last trade: 153.58999, 24 hour volume: 30061.67247586, 24 hour low: 141.10000, 24 hour high: 154.00000, 24 hour vwap: 145.95625
ChaangNo_: pretty sure more than 1.5 million usd will hit the market next week
gribble: There are currently 9233.7121 bitcoins offered at or under 175.0 USD, worth 1535430.41877 USD in total. | Data vintage: 82.7095 seconds
gribble: There are currently 2447.8068 bitcoins offered at or under 160.0 USD, worth 385530.858307 USD in total. | Data vintage: 68.6515 seconds
Diablo-D3: on ASICs, we decide the layout
Diablo-D3: in GPUs we dont decide how the chip is laid out so we try to make th ebest use of it
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 152.55000, Best ask: 153.00000, Bid-ask spread: 0.45000, Last trade: 152.55000, 24 hour volume: 29167.67662843, 24 hour low: 141.10000, 24 hour high: 154.00000, 24 hour vwap: 145.70414
Diablo-D3: ANYTHING that makes it slower, no matter if its technically an optimization or not, is verboten
Diablo-D3: each chip is very expensive to produce, it needs tso hash as fast as possible
Diablo-D3: and you want the cores as small and as stupid as possible so you can pack more onto the chip
bitesak: it's nice to see the bid price on Call options rising
Diablo-D3: because that takes more room on the chip
Diablo-D3: you CANNOT precompute any part of the beginning
Diablo-D3: we do the first 64 on the cpu, precompute everything we can for the second 64, and then skip the last 7 steps of the last 64
Scrat: Diablo-D3: yeah, significant gains other than that would imply a weakening of sha256
Diablo-D3: Scrat: I even wrote a SSA compiler in perl that optimizes for parallel execution that you feed it opencl and get opencl
gribble: There are currently 1579.7787 bitcoins offered at or under 155.0 USD, worth 240784.985216 USD in total. | Data vintage: 50.6103 seconds
gribble: There are currently 599.86303 bitcoins offered at or under 151.0 USD, worth 90105.2013641 USD in total. | Data vintage: 33.9313 seconds
gribble: MtGox lag is 12.944595 seconds. During this time, light travels 0.0259408234451 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin ten times between Earth and Moon (0.0257 AU).
gribble: There are currently 609.96465 bitcoins offered at or under 150.0 USD, worth 91494.697263 USD in total. | Data vintage: 107.2627 seconds
Diablo-D3: they just dont do them
Diablo-D3: btw, if they're using a sea of rolled cores, they can already terminate the last 7 rounds
Diablo-D3: on asics its going to be less of an importance
Diablo-D3: Scrat: the precomputed parts of the beginning allow me to do more in parallel for example
Diablo-D3: Scrat: I made more gains out of DiabloMiner doing OTHER tricks
Scrat: Diablo-D3: is the gain 10%? because you're adding quite a few jumps
Diablo-D3: which doesn't exist, theoretically or otherwise
mircea_popescu: Diablo-D3 im just saying, suppose somebody somehow DOES manage to optimise it.
Diablo-D3: at the start you can precompute parts of several rounds but still have to perform the rounds
Diablo-D3: Scrat: the last few steps yes
Scrat: Diablo-D3: so you skip the final permutation step because you can check for the first few bytes
Diablo-D3: you skip the last few steps because you only need H
gribble: BTCUSD ticker | Best bid: 149.90000, Best ask: 149.97999, Bid-ask spread: 0.07999, Last trade: 149.90000, 24 hour volume: 26217.06280203, 24 hour low: 141.10000, 24 hour high: 149.00000, 24 hour vwap: 145.13057
Diablo-D3: you skip some steps at the start because its identical for that set of 2**32 nonces (its precomputed on the cpu and you send the state variables to the kenrel/asic/whatever)
mircea_popescu: the fact that asicvendors can optimise towards 50%
mircea_popescu: as it will be our first line of warning to hash weakness
mircea_popescu: still, research in this field is very valuable
Diablo-D3: it really is as secure as they say it is
Diablo-D3: mircea_popescu: people have done static analysis on the process already
Diablo-D3: uh, you need to learn how mining works bro
mircea_popescu: you waste power too
Diablo-D3: you waste ROOM not time
mircea_popescu: CAN being the key word.
Diablo-D3: asics can do the same thing
mircea_popescu: Diablo-D3 i was talking asics
Diablo-D3: mircea_popescu: GPU kernels ALREADY only check the first number, H
Scrat: the hash block size is the minimum divisible entity in the hash afaik, it's the smallest unit that you can compute
mircea_popescu: it's trivial if you're thinking software. as far as the chip goes, it has to be actually etched on the chip.
mircea_popescu: why would you compute the whole thing ?
Scrat: and the check is only done in the end, the difference is trivial
Scrat: mircea_popescu: I dont think you understand how the hash is computed
mircea_popescu: it's mind boggling to me that nobody has so far implemented this.
mircea_popescu: if it didn't... you skip to increasing the nonce.
mircea_popescu: so here's a basic improvement to current asic hardware : you only need to compute the 2nd hash digit if the 1st came out as 0
ChaangNo_: the 14,000 in the gox line is such a bullish sign, as is new ATH on a sunday
ChaangNo_: yeah, i will look into it, iv been traveling and dead tired
mircea_popescu: not like they're going anywhere
mircea_popescu: well if it's not you might do it the day after
ChaangNo_: too much to do :/ if the price is about the same i might do it tomorrow
ChaangNo_: i wont tonight, but might tomorrow
ChaangNo_: oh it expires the 27th?
mircea_popescu: real easy to calc, strike / (1 - premium) for calls
ChaangNo_: hmm, yeah we might get that but ill pass,
ChaangNo_: what does the price need to be for me to break even at that price?
ChaangNo_: so like $219ish to break even just doing the maths in my head
ChaangNo_: thats why i did not get it, you had fiat in there
mircea_popescu: ChaangNo_ you pay .082122etc btc for the dollar value of 1 btc over 200
ChaangNo_: lol im not sure what im even looking at, and i used to trade gold options
jurov: lol the bidprice is so telling
jurov: u can go to mpex.co?
ChaangNo_: happen to have the price on hand?