923100+ entries in 0.7s
mircea_popescu: thestringpuller all
this rarara bitcoin is going over 590685804589 stuiff
Namworld: the bot uses available BTC
to make options
pgp: i am not advocating
that call should be cheaper - mp has
to do whatever he
thinks is right - just making observations...
pigeons: people might even agree with you some
tiberiusiv if you lost
the racism,
the eskimobobism,
the blind rage ignoring facts, etc
Namworld: So really, another loss reduce bondholders which reduce how many options
the bot can make
Namworld: Only
the bonds
thing would hurt, not
the exchange
mircea_popescu: moreover, pretty much all financials got axed as people flew
towards
the exchange
to play
there.
pigeons: yeah its not really known how elastic betting is
to btc price, and it isnt really knowable because
the users and
their behavior may change
mircea_popescu: to be perfectly fair : we have jackshit for data as
to all
these
things.
pgp: betting is inelastic
to BTC price
thestringpuller: tiberiusiv: don't speak unless you contribute something
to economy other
than being a
troll
pgp: you have
to consider fiat, because
the bond investment is selling fiat options
mircea_popescu: and from mid 90s
to 260ish on
the spot in april, and
then down
pgp: yes big loss in BTC
terms - but not in fiat
terms
pigeons: how is it an edge if no one buys
them?
pgp: merely opining - i don't know what
the right price should be...
mircea_popescu: we;ve done more collective shrugging
this past week
than
the shrugging monks of livonia.
mircea_popescu: pgp i am not saying
the bot is right here. i am just saying, it's not directly obvious
to me how it is wrong and how much.
pgp: here we just have
the bot
pgp: but
then again
that assume many market makers...
pgp: except
that in most asset classes, when bubbles burst, impl vol goes down, not up...
joecool: i haven't seen
that idiot in a minute
mircea_popescu: no but srsly. from
this perspective i could see it wanting 200 for breakeven wtf.
pgp: nonetheless - your "cheapest" call from an impl vol perspective is C116T. avg would need
to go
to $139 in
two weeks
to breakeven -
tough call...
mircea_popescu: but i am loath
to change it because i have never done so yet.
pgp: aha -
that makes sense...
mircea_popescu: now it's 0.26 so based on
the volatility we could say bot is hinting at interest rates over 50% per month.
mircea_popescu: now, exactly how much he considers
that cutorff
to be... in many months it was 0.02 or 0.03 etc.
mircea_popescu: this is an artefact of how
the bot is financed, not a mispricing per se,.
mircea_popescu: he could
theoretically buy 10k calls for 10 BTC
total, so at 0,001 and
then get 25 btc for his b ond
mircea_popescu: if someone ahs a bond in at say 25% and
there are 10k btc at lower %
than him
mircea_popescu: i mean
this : each call sold counts as 1 BTC in
the needed capital.
mircea_popescu: bot has a "won't sell a call for under X"
to protect
the book from padding.
this because of
the open auction style of
the bonds financing it. you understand what i mean ?
pgp: how does
that make sense?
pgp: all
the ask prices are
the same from C119T
to C389T...
joecool: well
they were right, solved excessive lag by crashing frequently
mircea_popescu: they are just very expensive
to my eyes. but it's what bot
thinks.
lippoper1: Dare I say
the market is becoming stable?
pgp: but
the implied vol on
the calls just doesn't seem worth it given where we are now...
Namworld: albeit if
they were priced correctly,
they would be lowest gain but also lowest losses
Namworld: yeah. Could be improved upon
tho so
the effect is less and
the low calls are actually good
Namworld: Well even when it was quoting under, breakeven went skyhigh near
the lowest calls
mircea_popescu: pgp his point is valid
tho, should never be quoting above 1. rough edge
there.
jborkl: woot, sent dust spam
to sd on less
than 2000 and won
mircea_popescu: we're still working
to mapping out
this entire
thing, it's not exactly a
trivial
task
mircea_popescu: and based on
the past history it had an engine made. as i said yest, i
think security and pricing got melded
together in some edge cases
mircea_popescu: "i have spent 8 years in romania, and im shocked
that
this mind is coming from
this country :)"
joecool: i
thought $70 would be a good number for 2013, i did a large buy at $30 feeling
that way
splnkr: 18x --> 5x hope next
time isn't just a boring old 2x boo
Namworld: yeah, well I noticed
the more volatility
there was,
the higher
the asks
the bot asks for
mircea_popescu: the sort of drop it's seen (260 -> 50) makes it
think
the world is ending really.
Namworld: if ask is higher
than one, it's strike divided by a negative number
Namworld: I'd love for someone
to pay me
that much for
the privilege of offloading
their BTC into my hands
Namworld: For example,
the calls struck at 41 USD/BTC will be in
the money at... -1885.90 USD
pigeons: if mp is doing something
that you
think needs
to be changed, its really intentional
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 75.92000, Best ask: 75.99000, Bid-ask spread: 0.07000, Last
trade: 75.99000, 24 hour volume: 415482.07084261, 24 hour low: 54.25000, 24 hour high: 140.00000, 24 hour vwap: 82.26400
Namworld: so
that asks prices for calls
tend
toward 1 for example without ever reaching it.
Namworld: eheh, no, I mean,
the algorythm might need
to be changed a bit
mircea_popescu: Namworld i'm aware
the bot is in "we've been attacked by aliens" mode.
gesell: also lets be honest, all
the exchanges probably have shitty code
gesell: Also if interested... it
takes 50 seconds for my order
to show up in
the
http API based orderbooks (didnt check websockets). so if you are realying on
the non-websocket API's for up
to date information, DONT
gesell: on
the web UI it looks as
though I have
two orders both at near max of
the FIAT
gesell: So if I place
two orders for BTC
that "nearly" max out my FIAt what it does is fulfills
the first and aadjusts
the second
to be for only
the amount of FIAT left. Interestingly
this will show up in
the orderbooks (API2) but not
the web interface
pigeons: although
they have pulled a mircea_popescu and rolled back before ;)
pigeons: yes
they even bailed out users of other exchanges like bitomat
Namworld: even if
they are slow... I
think
that's
the reason
tehy survive even if
they can't make
their exchange work right.
Namworld: at least
they never vanished with users funds
gesell: Okay ive
tested how it handles multiple orders
pgp: what's
the matter with me
today - can't
type or spell...
splnkr: that should
take
the edge off
pgp: if
they did - i'm sure lag would be a lot better
Skarr_: I'll at least know
to keep an eye on it now.
Skarr_: Ahhhhhhh. You're right.
They knocked it outta
the park communicating
that one.
Thanks for
the heads up.
joecool: mircea_popescu: i don't
think
they did it yet