922000+ entries in 0.663s
Bugpowder: I
think its a very reasonable strat
unbalanced_: Taleb says it's like a
thousand little paper cuts. A bunch of little ouches but you never "blow up" and lose
too much.
unbalanced_: Buy a few puts with a long enough
time horizon
to be right, and
then wait.
unbalanced_: Change
that chart
to CROX weekly and check out 2011: it was priced on earnings expectations
that would have meant
that every shoe sold in
the US would be a Croc for
the next N years. Bubble, had
to pop.
unbalanced_: Yes you have
to assume you will lose 100% on a
trade if you are wrong and restrict your bet size accordingly.
Bugpowder: I had huge account swings with options
trading
Bugpowder: yeah but after earnings
the volatility premium suddenly drops
unbalanced_: Pick a company
that could have drama in
the next 90 days: earnings at risk, ridiculously overvalued or undervalued.
Bugpowder: I did a fair amount of options
trading in 0708
unbalanced_: Right, but with options you
take synthetic positions, e.g. straddles and strangles. You're already doing it here.
Diablo-D3: never invest in
things you dont understand
unbalanced_: I was in
this strategy
then and
the portfolio was horizontal when all
the world was crashing around us.
unbalanced_: I'm not a big believer in Modern Portfolio
Theory after 2008.
unbalanced_: E.g. Apple in January, Amazon shortly after,
that MLM company Ackman and Icahn are fighting over
unbalanced_: Max downdraft in any one year, no matter what happens, is
the amount in your Risk On slice, if every one of
the 40 positions you
take
turns out
to lose 100%.
unbalanced_: If you mean your return on 80% of your portfolio may not keep up with inflation, my position on
that is: who cares?
The longshot options in
the other 10-20%,
the at risk portion of
the portfolio, are what will provide portfolio return.
Bugpowder: if you are doing 2 year
T Bills or shorter
term, very little risk
unbalanced_: Yes I wouldn't
touch 'em but here in Canada I use vanilla "high interest" savings accounts or money market funds for
that portion.
unbalanced_: It has
the advantage of avoiding
the fact
that in a bear market / crisis, all asset classes are suddenly highly correlated in a rush
to liquidity.
Bugpowder: also
treasuries are pretty dangerous right now
unbalanced_: Bug, re your ideas for
the fiat portfolio yesterday, have you considered sticking
to options on other asset classes rather
than EFTs / funds / stocks? E.g. 80-90%
treasuries 10%-20% at risk in 10-40 small longshot speculations per year?
kakobrekla: bottom was 0.2 and it picked up from
there rather quickly
kakobrekla: which i expect
to slowly getting lower since asic
Bugpowder: which is basically
the price when
the bubble started
to inflate
Bugpowder: well I would say, 16.1212 is
the bottom
kakobrekla: at
the current diff
the bottom would be 50 (0.2 mhash per 100 around)
thestringpuller: What's
the deal with ASICMINER did
they announce new divs?
kakobrekla: and
that chart uses weighted daily price
kakobrekla: Bugpowder, speaking of bubble, imho
this one was 4times smaller
Bugpowder: usually a good idea
to buy at .0006
thestringpuller: do you
think bondholders are going
to keep
their money
this
time lol?
Bugpowder: mp
turned
the S.MPOE buying bot back on ;-)
thestringpuller: Bugpowder: why do you
think MPOE stock is skyrocketing
today?
error4733: time will say ;) we just need a good news,
that it
Bugpowder: now its going
to get
tougher for a while
Bugpowder: Making money was easy on
the way up
the bubble
thestringpuller: If I were a hedgefund manager and saw all
this news I would rush
to btc world due
to lack of regulation.
thestringpuller: Yea but what if
that never occurs because someone arrives
to
the game.
Bugpowder: I
think it will get cheaper
though
thestringpuller: If someone competent arrives
to
the game
the price will rise again
thestringpuller: Bugpowder:
the
times change
though. 100 could be
the actual price
Bugpowder: I have bids starting at 52 and going down
to 13.
Bugpowder: My feeling is
that
the EV on
the 3 month
timescale, if you were long BTC at
this price, is negative
Bugpowder: yes but similar patterns happen all
the
time
error4733: same crash but
totally different context
Bugpowder: I don't really have a great idea of where its going, but
the past bubble pattern has me worried
Bugpowder: I mean, my deep analysis is based on lining up
the last bubble chart
to
this one
ThickAsThieves: last night someone was maintaining a 7k btc floor for a long
time
Bugpowder: wobble around 100,
then a slow fade over
the next 2 months
gribble: There are currently 44183451 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 14395071.0479 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 0.0215 seconds
gribble: smickles was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 1 week, 3 days, 0 hours, 39 minutes, and 52 seconds ago: <smickles> a bitcoin atm could be
the easiest way
to send money
to a friend, each of you just goes
to an atm
b0n1: ;;eightball can we
trust mtgox ?
gribble: One would be wise
to
think so.
error4733: ;;eightball can we
trust bitcoin-central ?
KRS1: do u have
the gems u need
error4733: with
the secuity breach, maybe githud is not updated yet
error4733: my guess is
they change a lot last week
b0n1: it works all find at first and get
the url for
the authorization code, on
token.get i get an empty boday
b0n1: KRS1, directly under Full usage example i used
the ruby gem code
error4733: dunno, but speculate on mtgox improvement before
they happen is just... useless!?
b0n1: KRS1, i look at
the official API doc from
the homepage of bitcoin central
TheMonarchTx: or do you only need
to verify
to withdraw funds?
TheMonarchTx: do accounts need
to be verified before
they can send API calls?
error4733: same % of new account provide paper for verifiaction,
that what
they say when some ppl ask
the same question as you !
error4733: bitcoin-central ?
try bitcoinica !