920600+ entries in 0.65s
mircea_popescu: actually
the proof of
this would be a huge step forward in economic
theory.
ThickAsThieves: mp, re: common
thought, isn't it a different situation when
the very game IS common
thought (speculation)
mircea_popescu: is
the same as
the difference between
the strategy of martingale and
the strategy of playing s.dice
mircea_popescu: i
think statistically
the difference between
the strategy of averaging in and
the strategy of
timing
the
top
Bugpowder: but you can
tell you are probably in a bubble and peel off some gains on
the way up
Bugpowder: ezdiy: yup,
that's why averaging out and averaging in are useful concepts
gribble: smickles was last seen in #bitcoin-assets 1 week, 4 days, 19 hours, 46 minutes, and 7 seconds ago: <smickles> a bitcoin atm could be
the easiest way
to send money
to a friend, each of you just goes
to an atm
ezdiy: but never
the
timescale :(
ezdiy: however
this line
thinking is actually useless
to quantify bubless, because you can get
the shape right
ezdiy: also '' Men, it has been well said,
think in herds; it will be seen
that
they go mad in herds, while
they only recover
their senses slowly, and one by one. ,,
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves
to put it simply :
the more close
to common
thought you are,
the less likely it is
to be correct.
the further out you are
the higher chances for you
to be wrong.
this is how
thinking about bubbles works.
ThickAsThieves: i do
think we'll strike an anomaly against
the bubble
template
mircea_popescu: such as, airplanes were made in
the 1900s. ants are still not made.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder "I can calculate
the motions of
the heavenly bodies, but not
the madness of people."
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: I certainly have used
the last bitcoin bubble chart
to inform my position for
this one.
ThickAsThieves: the speculators note
that when i bubble pops,
this and
that happens, making it much more confident behaior
Bugpowder: takes higher order
thinking, reasoning debate
Bugpowder: maybe democracy is harder
to construct
than a spec bubble
ThickAsThieves: right but knowing what a bubble looks like, allows us
to construct it
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: I would argue
though
that
the dynamics of bubble formation and popping have such similarities
that
there must be common stages of collective emotion
that drive
them
Bugpowder: I wonder how
that guy
that quit his job
to play 10000 hours of golf is doing.
ThickAsThieves: also consider
that
the market price is manifesting itself from people doing what
they
think other people
think people are doing
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder i always suspected
the "fight" or "Game" representation of markets is an artefact of
the american mind and has nothing
to do with market reality.
deadweasel: yeah, but it's how we work ALL
the
time.
deadweasel: so if you know a subject well enough and long enough (10,000 hours i
think),
the instinct can be correct when you're conciously not sure.
mircea_popescu: leaving aside
the quite
typical cypriot failure mode of capital controls (ie, corruption), it still doesn't work.
Bugpowder: but
the seductive argument is
that
the current state of bitcoin pricing is based on new market participants with little experience, and by using information asymmetries, like spending 12 hours a day on #bitcoin-assets, I can beat
them.
deadweasel: we actually make very few decisions with our conscious mind. our unconscious makes
the decision and
the consciousness creates a story around it make so it feels special about 'making'
the decision.
mircea_popescu: well... mtgox is
the most extreme case of capital controls i've ever seen implemented.
mircea_popescu: for instance :
the common wisdom is
that capital controls help volatile macrofinancial situations.
Bugpowder: I wouldn't believe it if
this was a mature financial market
Bugpowder: although my brain
tells my
that I must be more skilled
than
the market
mircea_popescu: i wonder if
their concrete prefab building can
take it.
Bugpowder: I maintain
that luck has a huge role
to play here
KRS1: wow i've learned a
thing or
two since i've been here
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder in
the end it all boils down
to "it's an -ev game" and "everybody
thinks
they're special".
KRS1: that all sounds very positive
to me
Bugpowder: If you are ignoring volatility and bubble formation and popping, (which was obvious both during and in hindsight)
then you may be making an EV positive play, but it is far far far from
the best EV + play.
mircea_popescu: we're
talking net inflows,
the fact someone makes bets worth 10 btc on s.dice doesn't mean he has bet a
total over 1 btc
mircea_popescu: dub most of
the
trades count as wash
trades in
this perspective.
mircea_popescu: probably. if by long
term one means more
than a year or a few.
Bugpowder: and from a long
term EV perspective, buying at 260 is still positive
mircea_popescu: let's look at
this past week (dear lord, it is ONE WEEK) from a macro perspective. buncha noobs poured 20-25 mn into
the fiat/btc exchanges. miners
took out a few mn of
that, exchanges
took out a few mn out of
that
too as fees.
Bugpowder: based on
the stability of price at around 15 pre-bubble, and
the growth in bitcoin infrastructure since
then
Bugpowder: and we will see an undershoot on
that
mircea_popescu: conversely,
the nature of people is
to infer patterns in chance.
mircea_popescu: well,
that's
the nature of chance. sometimes it works.
Bugpowder: I
think economic activity associated with bitcoin currently supports a price of ~30
deadweasel: i agree. but for some reason
this has worked out better.
mircea_popescu: the only problem is
that it doesn't work longterm. might as well play s.dice.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder meaningful, as in having a price signal. you're currently unable
to make any sort of judgement as
to what bitcoin price should be other
than "what are others
thinking"
deadweasel: i'd rather be profitable
than be part of something in a meaningful sense.
Bugpowder: hence,
the people
that are market participants are
the people I'm
thinking about, since
they are pushing
the price around.
mircea_popescu: i know your goal is
to
try and speculate, but
this makes you not part of bitcoin in any meaningful sense.
Bugpowder: and my goal is
to make $ and coins from
the price movement
Bugpowder: but if
they didn't move on
the way up or
the way down,
they aren't participating in
the market
mircea_popescu: buncha noobs got
tjhemselves into a
tizzy. nobody really caresd.
Bugpowder: half
the
top 500 addresses didn't move during
the whole bubble
Bugpowder: are you
talking people or
talking
total bitcoins
mircea_popescu: the 1% or so bitcoins
that are held by noobs really don't matter in any serious discussion.
Bugpowder: and
the vast majority are in a panic
Bugpowder: I have made very few mistakes
tonight
mircea_popescu: the vast majority of bitcvoin holders don't give a shit what
the price is.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowder you're making
the mistake of
thinking "people" are like you.
Bugpowder: ThickAsThieves: 70 might be a bit rich actually… People will definitely want
to buy at 50, but at 69? At 69 people are probably counting
their blessings
that
they can sell
the bounce.
gribble: MtGox lag is 4.718365 seconds. During
this
time, light
travels 0.00945555063055 AU. You could have sent a bitcoin from Saturn
to its largest moon,
Titan (0.00802 AU).
pgp: how bout
that ... new low... a little sooner
than I expected, but hey...
Bugpowder: combo should really be posting funny shit on
the way down
too
pgp: thought I was going
to bed, but... not now!
gribble: There are currently 119758.3 bitcoins demanded at or over 31.0 USD, worth 5378138.64252 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 76.0023 seconds
pgp: bp: what do you
think?
pgp: happening faster
than i
thought...