920400+ entries in 0.676s
mircea_popescu: whether it's pirate idiocy like gigavps did, or price idiocy like keiser & co did, or simple
technical idiocy like pushing
tradehill or coinbase etc :
mircea_popescu: one of
the key factors eveeryone has
to consider when promoting idiocy,
mircea_popescu: yet he leaves
the field once somebody
takes out a machete.
mircea_popescu: yes. just like
the guy on first base is an instrument in
the game of baseball
ThickAsThieves: bot is an instrument in
the volatility game, yet goes
to bed when
things get volatile
mircea_popescu: which, on
the strength of
that alone, i find difficult
to contest
mircea_popescu: more like "nothing
that goes from 20
to 260 and
then down
to 60 has a future"
pgp: if we used your prices, converted
to USD and computed like convention option in USD, all puts are guaranteed losers...
mircea_popescu: as far as
the bot is concerned, bitcoin is a dead horse it would seem.
pgp: look at
the
trade in
the sense
that I start in fiat and end in fiat - guaranteed loser
mircea_popescu: this is something we've been discussing at length yest i
thought ?
pgp: no way
to win in fiat
terms
mircea_popescu: even if you count
those at $6 each, it's hardly a loser compared
to 30 bucks.
mircea_popescu: if you
trade it for puts and btc goes
to $6, you now have 44/6 * 5 = 35 btc or so.
mircea_popescu: if you keep it as btc and btc goes
to $6, you have 30 bucks. so from a fiat perspective lost 90% of your fortune.
mircea_popescu: if you atm have 5.4035 btc,
their value is whatever, 300 bucks.
mircea_popescu: ok, let's
try
the example
then. [MPEX] [O.USD.P050T] 5 @ 1.080704 = 5.4035 BTC [+]
pgp: lowest implied vol? just want
to walk
through an example
ThickAsThieves: the one with
the lowest break even i suppose would be
the "safest"
pgp: am i right in assuming
that O.USD.P050T is "best" put right now?
pgp: mp: i understand
that puts can be > 1, but if you look at it from a USD perspective all
the put are guranteed losers, right?
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 60.97661, Best ask: 61.50000, Bid-ask spread: 0.52339, Last
trade: 61.84948, 24 hour volume: 562839.81439493, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 97.69000, 24 hour vwap: 68.46823
mircea_popescu: pgp 1 is a max for calls, it has no particular relaiton
to puts.
Namworld: best puts are in
the money at 32 USD/BTC
Namworld: although at half
the strike value,
they're worth 1 BTC already...
pgp: if it clearly 60's,
there's a pretty good shot at upper 70's , i
think
pgp: all
this 0.01 shit on
the gox book is ridiculous...
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 61.49999, Best ask: 61.50000, Bid-ask spread: 0.00001, Last
trade: 61.49999, 24 hour volume: 553160.98601480, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 98.22700, 24 hour vwap: 68.72244
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 61.00102, Best ask: 61.69899, Bid-ask spread: 0.69797, Last
trade: 61.00102, 24 hour volume: 552465.69282423, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 98.22700, 24 hour vwap: 68.74805
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 59.89701, Best ask: 59.91000, Bid-ask spread: 0.01299, Last
trade: 59.91000, 24 hour volume: 549138.33281102, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 98.22700, 24 hour vwap: 68.83756
Scrat: if I were filthy rich I'd make a bot
that
trades based on gribble's eightball, just for kicks
Namworld: ;;eightball Will we see 40 USD/BTC in less
than 24 hours?
ThickAsThieves: we'll plateau or slight slope until buying/volume subsides,
then dumping will resume
Bugpowder: when its going down, wait it out, or
take short
term long positions on sharp selloffs, selling
the bounce, if you must
trade
Bugpowder: when it was going up, buy
the dips, buy calls
pgp: i agree,
though I
think we could break out here
to upper 60's
Namworld: well we've had lots of bounce. People each
time hoped for a quick rise back so
they could sell
their BTC
they bought at a premium.
error4733: when you
try
to compare with 2011 bubble, dont forget MTgox hack ! less
than a week after crash
Bugpowder: deadweasel_work: yes.
That's really
the only
thing I'm going on here.
Bugpowder: got cleaned out
then bounced
to 66 in
the space of 3 hours
Bugpowder: similar level of bids were
there when I went
to bed
gribble: A market order
to sell 30000 bitcoins right now would net 1585346.9489 USD and would
take
the last price down
to 50.0000 USD, resulting in an average price of 52.8449 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 0.0009 seconds
gribble: A market order
to sell 20000 bitcoins right now would net 1080445.3355 USD and would
take
the last price down
to 51.0000 USD, resulting in an average price of 54.0223 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 115.8273 seconds
gribble: There are currently 33142.458 bitcoins demanded at or over 49.9 USD, worth 1740332.85768 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 89.1672 seconds
Bugpowder: deadweasel: I suspect we could bounce as high as 90 in
the next few days, but also expect
to see 30 or below sometime in
the next 3
gribble: There are currently 68671.866 bitcoins offered at or under 100.0 USD, worth 5613040.35424 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 63.7432 seconds
ThickAsThieves: 14 hours ago:
There are currently 35974.547 bitcoins offered at or under 100.0 USD
gribble: 57-58 support | resistance: 70, 77, 85-88 | upper
target in case of breakout mid-90s - 100 | highest
targets 111-113 | updated by OneFixt at Apr 16 2013, 10:40 UTC (
tips:
http://bit.ly/YnxUM4 ) | disclaimer:
http://bit.ly/129bYJ6 |
this is not investment or
trading advice | #bitcoin-analysis | 2 hours, 15 minutes, and 16 seconds ago
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 59.29001, Best ask: 59.66249, Bid-ask spread: 0.37248, Last
trade: 59.66249, 24 hour volume: 547741.83685989, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 98.22700, 24 hour vwap: 68.88007
gribble: There are currently 51116.173 bitcoins offered at or under 90.0 USD, worth 3911649.1496 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 32.4811 seconds
gribble: There are currently 0 bitcoins demanded at or over 90.0 USD, worth 0.0 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 19.9924 seconds
gribble: There are currently 130246.66 bitcoins demanded at or over 30.0 USD, worth 5550385.33549 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 8.8607 seconds
Namworld: Also I don't understand how
this support/resistance is calculated...
Namworld: I'd be surprised 50 is
the bottom
gribble: 57-58 support | resistance: 70, 77, 85-88 | upper
target in case of breakout mid-90s - 100 | highest
targets 111-113 | updated by OneFixt at Apr 16 2013, 10:40 UTC (
tips:
http://bit.ly/YnxUM4 ) | disclaimer:
http://bit.ly/129bYJ6 |
this is not investment or
trading advice | #bitcoin-analysis | 2 hours, 7 minutes, and 48 seconds ago
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 59.00100, Best ask: 59.92000, Bid-ask spread: 0.91900, Last
trade: 59.89000, 24 hour volume: 547666.44717794, 24 hour low: 50.01000, 24 hour high: 98.22700, 24 hour vwap: 68.89155
deadweasel_work: are we going
to bounce around
this week and still return
to 30$?
BitHub: let me know about
teh asset
pgp: future fiat exchange will need blessing of govt and prolly a banking license
to be
truly succesful
pgp: gox 24h volume at 547k...
that's HUGE...
kakobrekla: the
tx is 'pending confirmation' for days now
Namworld: Honestly, if someone is going
to make an exchange or anything without much experience, make it clear BTC withdrawals will
take a long
time
to process. Because
there won't be a hotwallet.
mircea_popescu: on your
teeth motherfucker.
this is okay. because most retards are
tauight how
to write and nothing else,
then given internet access.
kakobrekla: "young enterpreneurs and still learning
their business"
Namworld: Maybe I should read more about
these cases, but I can't care enough
to go and do it.
Namworld: yeah but
that's not happening regardless, does it?
mircea_popescu: the bitcoinica victims, one of
their avenues
to recover something of
their lost money
Namworld: I didn't say it was good, I said it COULD be possible
to reuse some failed codebase if someone fixed it. Not
that I
think
this is likely
to have occured.
mircea_popescu: there's currently absolutely nothing jared kenna can do
to become a bitcoin business person again.
mircea_popescu: there must be standards, and if
those standards are breached
the person must be dead.