918400+ entries in 0.584s
gribble: There are currently 32795971 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 22394946.7165 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 0.0123 seconds
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 127.50000, Best ask: 127.70000, Bid-ask spread: 0.20000, Last
trade: 127.50000, 24 hour volume: 63794.59686465, 24 hour low: 120.00000, 24 hour high: 129.20000, 24 hour vwap: 125.07695
mircea_popescu: which is, of course, "sing o goddess
the anger of achilles"
mircea_popescu: aeide would be some sort of praise,
tell
the story of,
kakobrekla: i mean
there is no "PENIS" and "VAGINA"
to be seen
kakobrekla: that static captcha
test must have worked
kakobrekla: im suprised by
the lack of
trolls and spam
pgp2: in getting more people
to bet - I
think
that
the complexity is a barrier
to new users...
pgp2: then compute
the current payout percentages on both side, or somthing - I really
think
that it would help
kakobrekla: not sure if avg pool weight will help avg user
though
kakobrekla: smth in
that sense will be added in
teh new interface
pgp2: like maybe display average pool weight - stuff so
they can compute something round in
their head and not have
to resort
to a calculator
pgp2: I know
that it's settable, just suggesting a firm minimum so
that EV can never get
to far out of whack.
pgp2: yes, but could be a bit more
transparent - i found it confusing at first.
mircea_popescu: on
the other, it's fully setable, min can be 100k or anything down
to 1
mircea_popescu: ie, bet says what your wright is, and what
the minimum is
pgp2: the problem, ultimately, will be PR. As more people bet, others will come
to
the same conclusions - people will
talk shit about bitbet and you didn't even get
to benefit from any of
that negative EV...
pgp2: just saying
that maybe a decay minimum of 20,000 would be appropriate...
pgp2: at 10,000 weight with pool average of 50,000...
that's
terrible EV...
The pool should be closed or EV disclosed...
mircea_popescu: the fact
that either side is still +EV seems pretty good
to me. means if you have a conviction you can still
take a side.
mircea_popescu: why would you be betting both sides 95% of
the
time in ?
pgp2: I was surprised,
though, at just how BAD
the odds can get. Perhaps you should consider a minimum decay value
pgp2: for popular bets
the it can be an significant incentive
pgp2: just wanted
to confirm
the analysis
mircea_popescu: basically you can make a little % by financing
the odds. so you can pretty much run a line bookie
thing on
top of bitbet.
mircea_popescu: anyway.
there's incentive for you
to do
this
type of bet (ie, a marketmaking bet) early in
the bet's life.
mircea_popescu: the good news being
that you're guaranteed half your money back no matter what
pgp2: for small bets relative
to
the whole
pgp2: if you look at avg weight (total weight /
total bets)
pgp2: I bet 2
to win EITHER 1.04 OR 1.24
mircea_popescu: alrgiht so we have confirmation on
the numbers at least.
pgp2: so I bet 2 BTC
to return either 1.05 or 1.26
pgp2: EV on
this one is -44%
pgp2: right, but still...
there are open bets where
there's like -40% EV - people stop betting...
pgp2: I get
that, but decaying by 5 orders of magnitude seems extreme
pgp2: hey mp, why do you prefer
to decay
the weight (or allow originator
to set
the decay) for bitbet? I've been doing some analysis and it really creates a heavy skews favoring early betting.
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 128.79001, Best ask: 128.59143, Bid-ask spread: -0.19858, Last
trade: 128.99990, 24 hour volume: 60612.58053853, 24 hour low: 119.21210, 24 hour high: 128.89000, 24 hour vwap: 123.57448
mircea_popescu: this is what i'm saying,
things are what
they are not what some dood gleaned from 15 minutes of skimming wikipedia.
mircea_popescu: "The Opening Auction will occur at
the Indicative Match Price —
the price at which
the maximum volume of orders is executable at
the
time of
the auction"
mircea_popescu: even if it's a situation of loaded book,
they're settled by fixing
taub: oh well okay
the prices would have
to intersect
taub: opening acutions right before
the market opens
taub: well
that actually happens
mircea_popescu: not even him. but
that's okay cause he goes back and puts an "usually" in paranthesis
there. problem fixed.
mircea_popescu: who
the fuck even heard of exchange settling a 80 bid and 90 ask at 85 ?!
mircea_popescu: therefore let me
tell you how
things are and how'd
they be better"
mircea_popescu: what offends me is
this "i am a
teenage cock with no experience whatsoever
taub: who are you responding
to?
kakobrekla: Starting a
trade site? > I have
two domains available
to me, so it only makes sense
to use one for
trading.
mircea_popescu: kids often do
this, "what if i were
the emperor of Rome" or "what if i was
the only person in
town" etc.
kakobrekla: what is
this indian malarkey, its missing skateboards
Doffx: or -lah so we can see
the symlinks?
gribble: BTCUSD
ticker | Best bid: 125.74001, Best ask: 126.43000, Bid-ask spread: 0.68999, Last
trade: 126.43000, 24 hour volume: 63681.08188621, 24 hour low: 115.20000, 24 hour high: 127.30000, 24 hour vwap: 122.64010
Doffx: I wish I was able
to help you more Luke-Jr but I honestly dont understand it.
Doffx: the clocks stablize in MPBM and
then never change once
they reach
the spot
they like
Doffx: I seem
to get more in Bfgminer
then
Luke-Jr: Doffx: maybe
the balance is off
Luke-Jr: Doffx: drops are
triggered by hw errors usually
Doffx: Why
though, it doesent drop in MPBM, it stays
the same indefinitely as far as I can
tell.
Luke-Jr: Doffx: because
the freq drops?
Doffx: I would use it if he could figure out why I lose 800 MH over
time with my Cainsmore :P
Doffx: That's good
to know.
Luke-Jr: Doffx: anyone mining with BFGMiner will automatically use GBT if
the pool supports it (unless
they specifically set stratum)
Doffx: Forcing
the pools would also be difficult, not sure why
they decided
to use Stratum however
Doffx: Well, Luke-Jr seems like it makes sense
to use, however you would somehow need
to convince
the miners
to use it.
Doffx: That looks like some sort of custom mining app, I have never seen
that before and I
think I have
tried just about every pool
Luke-Jr: Doffx: using GBT doesn't require any extra effort from
the miners like stratum does :p
bowjob: which site is
the account from