904100+ entries in 0.665s
furuknap: They may sell, but
they'll sell
to someone far better at math
than me.
furuknap: TAT: Yeah,
that could be a solution, but
to do
that,
there would need
to be funds for research, production, marketing, etc, etc, etc. Right now, it doesn't seem like friedcat is willing
to
think
that far ahead.
ThickAsThieves: what if in 2 years AM sells
the company at a 25% premium?
jurov: lol do
tell me, i sell diff derivatives. but btc price is pretty much not predictable, and it affects am much.
furuknap: At some point, someone will do
that math. Bitcoin mining is quite predictable due
to its finite reward. If we had inflation,
this wouldn't be a problem.
jurov: seems
to work for him
jurov: he claims
to
take irrationality into account
jurov: we need soros-level analysis instead of
these maff nerds
jurov: mircea_popescu:
that remains
to seen whether
the demand is really so elastic.
furuknap: I doubt very many people realize all
the factors in evaluating AM sustainability and are just seeing huge dividends, expecting
that
to stick around forever.
furuknap: Really, it doesn't bother me if people mindlessly run in one direction, but I'm somewhat bothered by having information
that may help people not get burned. If
they still want
to stampede, fine.
furuknap: Yeah, and
that herd is driving
the price now, not anything fndamental.
Scrat: supernodes are pumping
the price
mircea_popescu: it's like birds chipring
to one another "op
there's many of us we'll be safe chirp chirp"
mircea_popescu: 2. people wish
to be "together",
this is like
the one
thing where
they can be
together
jurov: and you seem
to imply
that AM will be around in unchanged form 3 years from now, and also we won't increase blocksize (and
thus
txfees). which is pretty unlikely.
furuknap: Oh, I agree. People bay hundreds of dollars for an iPhone and
that is just a piece of shit.
mircea_popescu: the main components are 1. people wish
to participate,
they see mining as participation,
they can't afford rigs so
this is
the next best
jcpham: mining
turds never repay
mircea_popescu: i doubt price formation has much
to do with any sort of rational
thinking.
furuknap: That's why it's an assumption, but really, AM must double
their network percentage
to maintain
the same dividends. AM wasn't paying mining-based dividends at anything close
to what
they're expecting over
the next years.
jcpham: what's so bad about being charged with manipulating
the price
furuknap: subtract
that from
the dividend based on expected hashrate (which
technically is also an assumption).
kakobrekla: > subtract
that from
the dividend based on expected hashrate (whi
furuknap: I was
thinking something like
that, but really, is isn't required.
The numbers won't change so
they are
the same in
three months or a year and will just show
the same results.
mircea_popescu: maybe also publish
the wordcount, just in case kids don't comprehend hashing.
mircea_popescu: furuknap : make a statement of it, publish
the hash of it
furuknap: It's really not
that complicated. It makes a couple of assumptions. 1) With
the current dividend level, AM will focus solely on churning out cash, not preparing for 2016 halving, and 2) in 2016 due
to halving of revenue, share prices will halve
too. If
those assumptions are correct, you simply divide half
the current share price over
the number of weeks or months, subtract
that from
the dividend based on expected hashrate (whi
furuknap: Besides, it's mostly
targeted at surviving 2016. Most 'investors' now don't see past
the next dividend. I doubt it will help anyone.
furuknap: It's not a 'secret' per se, but if I'm right and publish in advance, I'll just be charged with
trying
to manipulate
the price. I have no intention of manipulating anything. I have no insider information, just an analysis
that shows
there is no way for investors
to recouperate
their investments at
these levels.
furuknap: Heh, yeah,
that'd stay secret for about, I don't know, 10ns?
furuknap: Damn, I so want
to publish my numbers and model. I'll hold back,
though. If I'm right, it's easily proven after
the fact. If I'm wrong, it won't help anyone.
furuknap: I
think a lot of
the people right now are missing something, possibly vital
too.
ThickAsThieves: "Possibly put an intern or Jenna (if she has
time) on reach out duty"
furuknap: It is. Quite common
term, actually. It's all HTML5 and moving
things and stuff.
ThickAsThieves: 'front end dev' is
that what
they call it
these days ;)
ThickAsThieves: "This is amazing,
thanks for posting
this Ben! If Dwolla was located in Chicago I'd be applying for a front-end dev job right now."
jcpham: and she wants
to be
the sub
jcpham: what if
the woman wants you
to be her dominant partner
ThickAsThieves: " I’m
trying
to see if you’re building something and if so, on what, for whom, so I can figure out how
to find you."
mircea_popescu: anyway,
the reason \women don't work for him is cause he's a creepy looking dude.
ThickAsThieves: like "hey fuckface, show me
the fucking proof and
tell me all ur backroom dealz nao!"
ThickAsThieves: mp,
the article is funny, but i was anticipating someting more directly bitcoin-provocative :(
mircea_popescu: people are very much used
to
this basically nonsensical crap
they spend
their life in cause it's "easier"
mircea_popescu: it's basically
the same idea, "crafting is for fun not for making
tria" vs "running pts is for fun not for making btc"
Chaang-Noi: iv made so much more off of ltc
than btc
furuknap: Dammit! I just sold one of my GPUs
to buy LTC and didn't get
the cash in
time.
kakobrekla: well Chaang-Noi
thanks for providing slang updating service
Chaang-Noi: kako, keep uo with
the almost weekly changing slang
Chaang-Noi: no one is seeing
the same market at
the same
time, crazy shit
Chaang-Noi: the only question was if friedcat would move
them or not
KRS1: whats with
that wall at $125
Chaang-Noi: he had an options contract with me held by jahn
the dong
Chaang-Noi: he
talked
to me personally,as im
the guy who cooked him up so he could do it,. he just wanted it on his exchang first
Chaang-Noi: he
tried
to get me
to run
the pt but i would not do it being a us site and all
furuknap: I agree, and
to me, it's a red flag.
mircea_popescu: <ThickAsThieves> we just dont know what << funny cause i'm just writing an article sort of on
the
topic
Chaang-Noi: DT did it for free cuz ukto helped out DT in
the past
furuknap: I
think I heard why DT runs his PT for free sometime, but can't for
the life of me remember what it was.
Chaang-Noi: he just wanted
to keep people on his exchange, as he knew AM was
the best hing evar
Chaang-Noi: some
times naked short selling is fine
Chaang-Noi: but really... have
to read
the contract
ThickAsThieves: Burnside would pass off his PT if it didnt have
to be no-fee
ThickAsThieves: I'm not accusing so much as saying I
think
they SHOULD show proof
Chaang-Noi: he could have sold 2 or 3
times what i sent, but i know he has many many many
Chaang-Noi: i sold
them and had friedcat send
them
to him personally
furuknap: Of course
there is, but he's very clear about it.