902900+ entries in 0.666s
fiat500: how do you
think
that would affect dividends?
Chaaang-Noi: id say
the board knows almost nothing
the public does not
fiat500: ThickAsThieves: lets say BFL rolls out enough hw
that AM can roll out 100TH/s without risking control of >50%
Chaaang-Noi: i dont want
to evaluate, you guys forget
that we invested in
the idea ages ago... we no longer need investors.. we dont care, we dont need money....
furuknap: Investors who want
to evaluate a share's value do.
Chaaang-Noi: he was back before
the new year but after not so much
furuknap: That's why one of
the
things I asked friedcat
to start publishing is financial reports. Once a quarter is fine, more frequent isn't really necessary.
Chaaang-Noi: they are better
than debt free,
they have cash on hand :)
furuknap: I've
tried
to understand
that, but I haven't found anything. It's mostly "we retain some money" but nothing solid about expenses, running or expected.
Chaaang-Noi: he did not sell more
than 163k just look at
the updated op in
the
thread
Chaaang-Noi: yeah, friedcat is pretty damn solid about
this
fiat500: so
this makes me more confident in /their/ confidence of AM's viability
furuknap: Chaang, friedcat did say
that if
they needed funding,
they would do so by selling off
the BF part of
the shares rather
than issue new ones.
fiat500: them selling would signify cashing out
to me
Chaaang-Noi: i asked him in a board meeting, might not have been a rule but he said
tehy wont sell
the 200k
fiat500: this PT has something like 15k shares atm, how many have been issued
total?
Chaaang-Noi: i dont
think
they can even sell
the shares
ThickAsThieves: fiat500, AM would be fools
to sell
their unsold shares
furuknap: True, but
they announced
them
two weeks ago. If
they get
the revenue paid out as dividends in
two weeks,
then it
takes a month
to sell ฿20K, or ฿5K per week, which isn't enough
to sustain 0.036 per week.
Chaaang-Noi: depends how many of
the 10,000 usb miners we sold
furuknap: fiat: In bursts, maybe, but 0.036 represents mining 50% of
the network, so probably not long-term or on average.
fiat500: are asicminer dividends per share likely
to increase beyond 0.036?
furuknap: I probably would hold at 1.5 and possibly higher
too if I knew more about
the future plans, progress in 2nd gen chips, and if
they were
to hold back more of
the dividends
to secure
themselves against future opporyunity loss.
ThickAsThieves: I believe
that
the only reason we havent seen 200TH yet
Chaaang-Noi: well
to be honest, im selling a bit at 2 and 2.5, not buying, but i would hold at 1.5
to 2
Chaaang-Noi: there are lots of hourses, but only AM figured out how
to not fall on its own legs and get out of
the starting box
furuknap: I just don't see
the value
that everyone else wants
to pay.
furuknap: And
thus you place your bets based on
that. Nothing wrong with
that.
furuknap: They will have
to be, and I really
think
they will be, but
the picture isn't as one-sided as everyone
thinks. Right now, we're cheering
that AM wins
the race every week, but nobody seems
to notice
there is only one horse.
furuknap: Bitfury may be a very strong outsider. If
they get
their shit
together for June,
they're already one generation ahead of AM and can produce hashes much faster.
Then, AM must catch up, and we don't know where in
the process
they are.
Chaaang-Noi: yes
they ahve some prototypes
they are
testing
Chaaang-Noi: you guys are silly
thinking bfl is minning with much
furuknap: Yeah, I saw
that. Don't
think it's
that much of an effect,
though.
Chaaang-Noi: see
this is why he cant hurt AM price, people will see his
thinking and lulz
Chaaang-Noi: that was a guess assumming BFL could ship, its clear now
they cant
Chaaang-Noi: your assumption
that we will only get 10
to 15% of
the network over 3 years is silly
furuknap: Yes, and what is
the guess for 2017?
Chaaang-Noi: we are at 30% of
the network and sell off hardware, while having
THs 1000
THs in
the pipeline... you are using some bull shit 10% number
that was a guess 9 months ago...
furuknap: TAT: Very simple,
there's no way I can get more reward from
the dividends
than I can from selling
the shares.
furuknap: Chaang, at 2.0,
the ROI is roughly 2% per year,
taking
the halving effect info account.
ThickAsThieves: why you would sell off after a few months, yet use
theories
that span 5 years
Chaaang-Noi: furuknap i
think you undervalue it, i
think we will see 3 btc before 1.5 btc
ThickAsThieves: AM's value is derived from
the published plans of Friedcat, dividends, liquidity, and quantity of byers
furuknap: Chaang, it depends on how you evaluate risk. In my striclty personal opinion, I would evaluate a price between 1.3 and 1.5
to support my risk profile with a reasonable yield and expecting a network hash rate between 10 and 15% on overage over five years.
KRS1: so its feasible
to say AM could be a victim of
their own success?
ThickAsThieves: maybe his design strategy is
to have chips at 400% efficiency by
then
ThickAsThieves: furuk, you also presume
that Friedcat is not planning for
the halving
furuknap: The future speculation is not very relevant,
though. When companies get
this big in
terms of network percentage, it is much easier
to speculate whether
they will retain
that.
Chaaang-Noi: okay
then if in 3 eyars, im going
to suspect you
think AM is worth around 5 btc each
then?
Chaaang-Noi: yeah fried cat will odds are have gen 2 out before bfl can ship other
than a few prototypes
ThickAsThieves: BFL will be shipping while AM is selling off
their used 1st gen
furuknap: I assume BFL or someone will ship in
the next
three years, yes.
furuknap: Seeling hardware is an additional income yes, but competition will rise quicker
there.
Chaaang-Noi: there is no reason not
to
think AM can have 45% of
the network and still ahve sold 45% of
the hardware making up
the other 55% of
the network.
Chaaang-Noi: furknap firedcat said his goal was 105 and
this was when he
thought bfl was going
tio ship first
ThickAsThieves: also Friedcat has commited
to a 10% minimum, no average
furuknap: Or rather,
there are enough people
that don't
take
the halving effect into account
to ignore it :-)
furuknap: The higher
the price,
the higer
the halving effect.
furuknap: But
the stable income is not as high as people
think it is. friedcat has said he expects 10% on average.
That correlates
to around 0.006 per week. From
that, you need
to deduct
the halving effect, which is 0.005, yielding 0.001 in real ROI.
ThickAsThieves: in 1 month, it is very unlikely AM willl be worth less
than
the divs paid+sale price
furuknap: TAT: Exactly, and
that effect is higher
than most realize. In fact, for AM, it's roughly 0.005 per week.
truffles: furuknap if u wrote like
this on
the website i might read at least 50% of it!!
furuknap: True, but
there must be
that famous idiot
that will pay you more
than what your share is worth.
Chaaang-Noi: price of btc ehre matters as well, cuz we need
to buy stuff with yuan, so higher
the btc price
the higher
the percent of divdends
ThickAsThieves: but
that can be offset if
that asset can be resold any
time