898700+ entries in 0.629s
furuknap: Not according
to
the numbers I've run. In 2 years,
the bond will have repaid itself many
times over and still produce small (ie above US
Treasury, but just barely) profits.
furuknap: It is more profitable in a
two-year
timeframe with all
the assumptions coming
true. If any of
them don't
then all hell breaks loose...
ThickAsThieves: yet you dont prove whther it is actually MORE profitable
than AM
ThickAsThieves: because you also argue
that
the stock of 100TH would be very profitable
furuknap: I can't control what people do. I can only give
them
the numbers.
furuknap: No, it's explained just befoire
the numbers.
ThickAsThieves: furuknap, while you mentioned repeatedly in
text
that AM sells hardware and 100TH bonds do not have
that benefit, you exclude hardware sales from your outlook numbers.
This is misleading, no?
assbot: !mp <signcrypted dpaste.com url> (desc: returns
the response from MPEX order)
assbot: !ticker <exchange> <ticker> (desc: returns current
ticker values, supported: MPEX, HAVELOCK, BTCTCO) {short: !t}
furuknap: Two hours left of
the crypto-trade deadline... Which number is
this,
the sixth?
trzu: they are worse
than bfl
ThickAsThieves: no point hacking yourself without
taking some coins with you
fiat500: im looking for an alternative
to bitvps
furuknap: It's not
terribly important,
though.
furuknap: I just need a number
to illustrate reinvestment cost
to maintain hashrate, but my Google-foo couldn't find a friedcat mention of
that number.
furuknap: Right. So either
they stop mining or
they pay some sum of money per
TH, and I believe
that number
to be $10K.
fiat500: no, i wouldnt even do
that
today
furuknap: They're only abale
to do
that because nobody else is shipping. Will you still pay $5K for a 10GH/s in one year?
fiat500: why would
they do
that if
they are selling 10GH/s miners for $5k?
furuknap: Didn't I read
that ASICMiner can put 1TH online for around $10K?
furuknap: How much of an increase was
the last retarget in percent?
furuknap: What was
the previous increase btc? Just
to have as a point of reference...
furuknap: Actually, since 10% means 20% per month, 5% would be better, but I don't want
to be
too unrealistic.
gribble: Next difficulty estimate | 13355540.2437 based on data since last change | 12915952.6158 based on data for last
three days
furuknap: Not looking for formulas right now, and difficulty really isn't part of
that equation at all :-)
furuknap: And is
that just a complete random number or do you
think it is based on at least some rational
thought?
ThickAsThieves: that gives you an easy number
to make a formula with
too
furuknap: We know it's not going
to be 10000% or 1% so it's somewhere in between.
furuknap: Impossibe
to give me your best?
furuknap: I need
to be proven wrong again... Give me your best estimate on network increase (in percent) per month over
the next 12 months on average.
Chaaang-Noi: i
think it might peak near 1 btc each if his preorders hit at
the right
time
Chaaang-Noi: it wont get better
than AM ever imo but it was undervalued when i bought in massivly at .115
deadweasel: i dunno, i figure it's
the ltc of mining, but I was gonna
take a look
error4733: kakobreka : yes, drama of
the day :)
gribble: There are currently 104685.69 bitcoins offered at or under 1.11111111111e+17 USD, worth 6.99157250609e+13 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 25.4900 seconds
gribble: There are currently 13709258 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 18594766.4567 USD in
total. | Data vintage: 18.2833 seconds
fiat500: fuck em anyway, charging 6%, what is
that
orkaa: it's not
that perfect it would seem
Chaaang-Noi: once auctions were 70 btc plus we were like fuck.. lets do
this...
Chaaang-Noi: but we more or less picked
this path like 2 months ago
ThickAsThieves: selling hardware at
the highest quantity and cheaper
than competitors is
the real cashcow
ThickAsThieves: I was already caring less about
the growth of
their mining farm
ThickAsThieves: he merely helped me clarify my desires for
them as a company
fiat500: a 300MH/s usb stick
that generates < $1/month isnt
that
fiat500: ThickAsThieves: its a bit of a stretch
though, HP built hardware
that people could do work/play on
Chaaang-Noi: <ericmuyser> "i want 0.02 divs!" *buys in and loses 0.8 from
the drop* you will be even in a month :)
ericmuyser: "i want 0.02 divs!" *buys in and loses 0.8 from
the drop*
ThickAsThieves: because HP didnt want
to
the PC business after
they got it
fiat500: ericmuyser:
they are even less
to us
ericmuyser: fiat500: but i dont
think
the divs are much
to
them really
fiat500: their only hope right now is
to cash out big before
the nethash skyrockets
fiat500: the more
they wait,
the longer it will
take for
them
to get started
Chaaang-Noi: fiat500 i agree, but
they are buying lots right now
Chaaang-Noi: right now
they have shit loads of btc
to spend
fiat500: Chaaang-Noi: at
this scale
they shouldnt be paying divs out,
they should be reinvesting and
trying
to get
their hands on as much hardware as possible, soon
Chaaang-Noi: i bought into AM just cuz
they were in china
ThickAsThieves: which makes it more likely
that any notable competitor of
theirs would have
to also be
there
ThickAsThieves: while sorting a way
to
transcend
the
traditonal mining market