883100+ entries in 0.602s
mjr_: so hopefully, if it were possible
to hedge better, one should be able
to offer better prices
mjr_: 3. I know
this obvious but higher prices mean less deman
mjr_: 1. Options volume used
to be higher
mjr_: that is
the problem
mjr_: yes, you have
to map out where you are covered and more importantly where you aren't
mjr_: in other words, i am long
the future
mjr_: for example, let's say i
tell my friend i will buy 1000 coins from him at 75 dollars at
the end of august
mjr_: anyways, financial engineering should allow me
to abstract away whatever risks i don't want, and focus on
the risks i do want, and
then collect on
those risks
mjr_: i was saying similar
to, not
the same
mjr_: i can get <money> cheap here, and i can lend <money> for more
there
mjr_: eh, its really just abstracting
the currency and focusing on
the market
mjr_: for example, if i borrow yen
to lend out dollars (yen is low yield, dollar is higher)
that is a classic example
mjr_: i
think
this is more similar
to a Carry
Trade, rather
than an arbitrage
mjr_: i would raise money
to start market making aggresively
mjr_: well, if i come up with a strategy
that works, and can mathematically be shown where exactly my risks are
ThickAsThieves: if you can properly cover your ass, and only intend
to offer small amounts in mid-market
mjr_: its closer
to a standard deviation
mjr_: mp chooses not
to hedge options, which is perfectly valid
mjr_: my calculations over
the last year on a daily basis (365 data points) show a historical daily volatiltiy of 120
mjr_: i mean
that is my goal,
to figure out if
there is something here, or not
mjr_: but need
to
test a LOT before i
try
that
mjr_: and i
think i can perhaps offer lower prices
mjr_: so i have been applying standard
tools
to
these options
mjr_: then i can/should
treat it as such
mjr_: that was an oblique reference
to a harry potter fan fiction (LOL) in which harry is curious about
the arbitrage possiblity between wizard gold and gold on
the spot market in
the muggle world
mjr_: then i want
to see how
they compare against
their "muggle" counterparts
mjr_: if
they aren't magic
mjr_: concepts like
theta, gamma and delta are irrelevant
mjr_: if yes,
then i should ignore every mathematical model
that
the financial world has constructed
ThickAsThieves: i dont
think
time decay is built in but its possible his volatility portion of
the algo outweights it
mjr_: just cuz vwap is
the same with 30 days left, i shouldn't pay
the same as 1 day left
mjr_: because
to me it doesn't seem like it is
mjr_: basically, i'll just come out and say it, is
time decay built in
mjr_: i am saying,
they are adjusted every day?
mjr_: does
the bot, change
them, or have
they basically been static (what i am assuming)
mjr_: do
the prices of
the options adjust daily?
mjr_: or is accepted
to people who send in >100 btc with
the last 3 digits set
to 8
mjr_: but
that is monthly and uses an auction symbol...i forget
the details\
mjr_: mpbor or something like
that
mjr_: hmmm....i
think
that
the bond has a symbol
too, but i can't remember what
mjr_: but i guess
those are
the
three asset classes
mjr_: i
think we all went over
the symbology last
time mp changed it
mjr_: S in
the context of mpex means Security i mean
CheckDavid: is
there anything
to interpret in it's structure?
mircea_popescu: however, it's well discussed
there ,
this future of payments in bitcoin
topic.
mircea_popescu: well may be an idea
to read back becauyse
there's some great stuff in 2012. i'd love
to find you
the exact one but i gotta jet right now
mircea_popescu: consider
that most in light of
the effects of me saying "stop buying"
mircea_popescu: it seems
to me you're
the only one who doesn't read
trilema
ThickAsThieves: but it's quite interesting
to me
that no one else does
ThickAsThieves: so you don't see bitcoin as a
the populous currency of
the future?
mircea_popescu: and if
that'd happen
they'd immediately buy groceries.
mircea_popescu: for
the benefit of people whose income could at most be upset by finding 20 bucks on
the sidewalk,
mircea_popescu: just like i showed
the SDRs as
the exact equivalent, and people ignored it because well...
they never had one so it don't exist.
☟︎ mircea_popescu: and everyone ignored it because welll...
they didn't like
to hear it.
mircea_popescu: but
they make a poor standard, as
they're not wealthy or socially needed.
mircea_popescu: i understand
that
the life of most consists of a daily struggle
to produce "A little pocket change".
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves what if you
turned all your dollars into land ?
ThickAsThieves: you are saying my complaint is, damn
the dollar is worth
too much
today
CheckDavid: it doesnt? So he has
to sell his house as well
ThickAsThieves: but when i must pay my bills and buy
things not available in btc, I
then look
to
the exchange rate
mircea_popescu: if you
turn all your dollars into btc ostensibly political process and government behaviour no longer affects your wealth.
mircea_popescu: the only way
the
terms make sense is if you're
talking about fiat's value (in Bitcoin)