846300+ entries in 0.476s
mircea_popescu: so you can lay
two unrelated bets. if
they're unrelated
that;'s not arbitrage.
b0n1: don't see
the point here
mircea_popescu: so
then if
the events are unrelated
then
this is simply atiomic betting. you can bet no on all
the various miner deliveries on bitbet and win with all
b0n1: the quotes for bet/lay of an event A are not "entangled" with bet/lay of an event B so
to say
mircea_popescu: the only problem is,
traditional betting venues work much like
the casino,
to skim as much as possible.
mircea_popescu: people are used
to
the very cloistered situation
traditional betting venues offer.
mike_c: ok. i agree with you (and
therefore will place a bet). let me find a better example or understand
that I was wrong.
mircea_popescu: i dunno
that you can derive 10% gains over ghold staying under 2k an ounce for
the rest of
the year
mircea_popescu: seems
to me it's actually pricing
the
thing pretty darned accurately. if you look at options
they're a worse deal.
mircea_popescu: seeing how it's 1.3k atm... seems about right
to me. you get better odds on
that somewhere ?
mike_c: yeah. just seems like
the weight drops off so quickly
that its
tough
to get in.
The weighting system seems
to go against your philosophy of monitoring
the bet and pushing
the other side if you
think
the bet has moved
the wrong way.
nubbins`: okay, i'm going
to step outside for a few moments
b0n1: mircea_popescu, i am not sure whether
that is of
the same nature as
the point i want
to mention here
mike_c: yeah.. my issue is
that it feels like unless you get in early
there is no way
to bet.
mircea_popescu: unless you
think it's 64.5
to 1
they actually deliver,
there's some arbitrage
there.
mircea_popescu: you can do
the same exact
thing on mutual betting, except paying less vig.
b0n1: because prices are set by supply and demand from
the users, at least
thats how it works on betfair
mircea_popescu: i don't see we have such a shortage of events
that we need
to make
them last by creating dozens of bets out of
the same one
thing
b0n1: yes, but you can for example lay b and bet a and can do arbitrage with
that
mircea_popescu: sure,
the event can be repackaged every which way, but fundamentally it's either a or b.
b0n1: there can be many scenarios where
there are arbitrage opportunities
b0n1: for example in a football game when you can bet on
team A or
team B or draw and also lay every bet,
too
mircea_popescu: b0n1 so basically, mutual betting is better for
the bettor. line betting is great for
the bookie. lay/back is great for
the site/liquidity provider
mircea_popescu: a back/lay bet you can only cancel if someone is willing
to unwind you.
mircea_popescu: a mutual bet you can always cancel by making an appropiate bet on
the other side.
b0n1: yeah, i see
that point
mircea_popescu: b0n1 ok, simpler case of
that : mutual betting is lay/back with no spread. if you can lay for 45 cents
then you can back for 55, precisely.
nubbins`: "The last
time I had seen grown humans
throw up like stressed out cats we were in a ditch and being fired upon."
mircea_popescu: okay. do you see how
that can be used
to shave a significant edge off
the naive players ?
mircea_popescu: do you see how
the back/lay system distributes liquidity arbitrarily ?
mircea_popescu: mkay.
this is a problem of maffs. let's
try something else :
mircea_popescu: do you grok
the part of how back/lay is a subset of mutual betting ?
BingoBoingo: Thanks mircea_popescu
they seem like
they can't even
throw a proper labcoin style AMAZINGCOMPANY shitstorm.
This might be more boring
than I anticipated.
ozbot: Least likely
to succeed character :
The upseller pe
Trilema - Un blog de Mircea Popescu.
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves strangely enough for a "dutch central bank" rep, nobody heard of
this ebe fellow.
dub: I
thought .co domains were free
nubbins`: because
they might really NEED
that
ten bucks,
this
time next year
b0n1: mircea_popescu, still
there?
nubbins`: after reading
that, i wondered if
they even knew what addresses
the funds are in
ThickAsThieves: the FBI has seized some 26,000 Bitcoins, but
they have "not been able
to get
to Ulbricht’s personal Bitcoin yet. 'That’s like another $80 million worth,' [and FBI spokesperson] said
ozbot: The Switchboard:
The FBI has only seized 26,000 of
the 600,000 Bitcoins Silk Road raked in
blastbob: i
think one of
the other guys at coinbase said in a video
that
they wasnt going
to
pankkake: that sounds like another diaspora* in
the making
blastbob: alot of altcoin focus on
that convetion?
ThickAsThieves: apparently no one filmed me asked
the quantum mining guys who
they
thought
they were fooling
assbot: [HAVELOCK] [XBOND] [PAID] 0.69348300 BTC
to 1`386`966 shares, 50 satoshi per share
ozbot: Decentralized Exchange Panel -
The European Bitcoin Convention -- 2013 Amsterdam - YouTube
nubbins`: full of pictures of wizards, fantasy landscapes, and a small section of women's faces on
the very last page, with cut-out photos of himself glued on
top
BingoBoingo: Oh,
the Ryan Dickherber character got a mention here. At some point he contacted me in response
to some local meetup I half assedly
tried
to organize. He seemed rather boring so I didn't bother. Pretty sure it is actually his name
though.
pankkake: I like
those guys,
they make me
think I have a normal sexuality
nubbins`: and i found diapers in his room,
too
nubbins`: the guy who drew
that has a 9yo daughter
jborkl: lol
that is kinda strange
nubbins`: that's one of
the
things
the
tenants left behind
ozbot: imgur:
the simple image sharer
pankkake: is
this
the special fanboy edition?
pankkake: why does
the mac have more
than one apple logo?
ThickAsThieves: it's
the only question no one on
the panel attempted
to answer
ThickAsThieves: the audience question basically boils down
to "Who are
the real criminals, and what are you doing
to regulate yourselves"
pankkake: interesting
that non-hard-core-bitcoiners were
there
ozbot: Regulation Of Bitcoin -
The European Bitcoin Convention -- 2013 Amsterdam - YouTube
dub: who ate
the biscuit?
ThickAsThieves: did i already
tell you guys about
the moment with
the central banks being put on
the spot?
ThickAsThieves: he said
there's no situation where gavin would just do what
they vote for
ThickAsThieves: i both appreciate
that some party is making
the effort, and worry
that it's just one party
ThickAsThieves: he says Gavin knows what's best and he
trusts him, basically
nubbins`: mircea_popescu: i just need
to figure out how
to structure
the "house edge"
ThickAsThieves: that accepting
the devs as "core" is
the most dangerous centralization in bitcoin
mircea_popescu: you pay X
to join, you get a percentage of all subsequent joins equal
to your "trust rating"
ThickAsThieves: basically i expressed
that
this name alone worries me,