813800+ entries in 0.55s
mike_c: er, so you said
the losers
mike_c: company decision. it can be done so
that all
the money is split, or only
the losers money.
mike_c: you get half as many as
the 0.7 has
mircea_popescu: aite, so let's
try it. since you're somehow decided it must be 0.1s for some reason, i put 0.5 on dems. what's
that do ?
mike_c: as would
this. you are buying shares in dems. later, money comes in on reps, your intrinsic share value goes up
mircea_popescu: bbv1 is neutral on
thsi score. if someone buys
the other side later it lifts you up
mike_c: so coming in and dropping 10btc on a bet with only 0.3 on
the other side, not so great.
mike_c: if i guess
the bridge will fall down when you drive over it.
mircea_popescu: just guess
the value of
the integral, it won't kill you .not like it's a binding contract or anything
Vexual: u can have an algo gen weighting curve
tho, dont even need
to update faq
mike_c: i can specify, just can't do
the integral off
the
top of my head.
Duffer1: it sounds like you're
trying
to dumb it down for noobs by overcomplicating it
mike_c: you will be able
to see when you place your bet. it will say "1 share: 0.1 btc, 1 more share: 0.2 btc, 1 more share: 0.5 btc"
mircea_popescu: i got 10 btc on
the dems right here. i send it
to your site. what happens ?
mike_c: but
that share price is an integral
mike_c: now
there will be a share price for each one (there are a variety of pricing functions)
to buy a share in each outcome
mike_c: let's say
the democrats when
the next US pres election
mike_c: well, i
think parimutuel wagering on mathematical
things is silly :)
mircea_popescu: so let's run
through
this. bet is gribble's coin
toss comes out heads.
mike_c: the nice
thing about is
that you don't need a
time weight. early bettors get better odds, and it will naturally get squeezed off when
the market knows
the event is decided.
mike_c: if
there is sufficient interest from people i can work up a simulation.
mike_c: it does, however, allow you
to sell your shares if you want
mike_c: except,
there is always buy-liquidity from
the opposing side
mike_c: and
there is no market-maker
mike_c: but
the order book is filled with
the algorithmically determined prices
mike_c: and when an event is basically decided, share prices go
through
the roof on
that side
mike_c: price of shares will be driven
to whatever probability is currently expected.
mike_c: basically you buy shares in
the outcome (this is not
tradesports). share price is based on
the current proportion of bets. so buying one share costs 0.1, but buying
two shares cost 0.22, etc.
mike_c: i'll ask havelock. probably
tomorrow.
mike_c: ok.. i
think i understand enough
to design bitbet v2.
BingoBoingo: Whatever is wrong with
TeX for passing documents?
pankkake: multipage jpeg is called
tar :)
mike_c: how could i possibly open a pdf from someone i know could hack
the shit out of me if he wanted
to?
mike_c: it's got some good proposals for how
to do it. i'm working on
the
tl;dr.
mircea_popescu: mike_c did
the academia folks invent something again ?
Vexual: thats what i mean ascii,
the area is fake
BingoBoingo: kakobrekla: I
take
that
to mean
they'll randomly power up
the computer when you aren't using
to
to see if you found any bitcoins yet.
Vexual: no
thats
the beauty of it, by removing
that special part of
the whole game, you reintroduce it again
Vexual: then sell your 0 days
to market with
the advertising
Vexual: i still prefer
the physical areana with drones, paid for by discorvey channel
Vexual: you propose
to make it more sporting by making it less sporting
Vexual: can we have drones with cameras reading keystrokes in
the arena?
mircea_popescu: this was "news" in 200 bc
too. i dunno why it's so counterintuitive
mircea_popescu: i don't
think
there's possible substitution for reputation generally.
mircea_popescu: im kinda looking forward
to
the day when
the old world starts actually paying lawyers
to
troll irc.
mircea_popescu: not like i won't let you make a bet
that expires early or
that ends with w/e weight etc
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves
this discussion mostly started because users can't be arsed
to use
the fine
tuning implem,ents already available
mike_c: steep curves late are
the same as early closing imo
ThickAsThieves: then you can overlay
the curve chosen on
the graph pic for each bet
ThickAsThieves: what if you just offer 4 curve pictures when making bet, maybe in a Edit Curve button, one
tapers early, one late, one linear, one like Franks Weather
mike_c: yes. not unsolvable
though.