808500+ entries in 0.527s
benkay: j-d made
themselves an inputs.io account
to which IIO victims could send btc without blockchain confirmations or such, and
the fidelity bond was
to cover however
that account
BingoBoingo: benkay:
They didn't have any dependency.
They just wanted more deposit options and
TF was willing
to deposit a fidelity bond
to cover deposits
through inputs.io
benkay: BingoBoingo: why did j-d have a dependency on inputs.io in
the first place?
BingoBoingo: The value of
the coins
though is as a store.
BingoBoingo: benkay: Of course coins in such an arrangement have
to stay cold.
BingoBoingo: Because such a deposit existed Dooglus was able
to extract exactly what he was owed as opposed
to submitting himself
to
the arbitrary fractional repayment/settlement mess
TF devised.
benkay: those coins have
to be 'cold' until
that contracts
terms are invoked, correct?
BingoBoingo: benkay: As I understand he made a deposit
to Dooglus in advance
BingoBoingo: Million dollar BTC doesn't happen because Bitcoin is a better gum buying
tool
than a quarter at
the gumball machine. It happens
through a lot of BTC being
tied up in contracts.
benkay: TF put btc on reserve, or promised
to pay?
BingoBoingo: benkay: Who said holding has
to be cold. I'm
thinking Fidelity bonds and such. One of
the few people who dealt with Inputs.io and didn't get fucked was Dooglus who made
TradeFortress keep a bond with him in exchange for him accepting deposits
though
TF's platform. Such
things seem a natural growth from GPG contracts and other crypto goodness.
BingoBoingo: I
think 3 sounds like a good over under for how many line betting ventures might fold
tomorrw
BingoBoingo: Oh, Auburn is leading
the handegg BCS
thing 14-3 right nao
BingoBoingo: KRS1: I'm not
talking about
that.
The BTC/Fiat interface is boring and overdone. I'm
thinking applications of BTC
tht
take advantage of its function as a store of value (ie
the most popular use of BTC)
KRS1: BingoBoingo: yeah
the markets have
to calm down a bit
mike_c: taking out
that one hard drive
that was holding
the whole
thing up? :D
BingoBoingo: KRS1: I'm more convinced
that as Bitcoin matures people will progress
through more and more advanced holdign styles
KRS1: im interested in moving
toward an algorithmic
trading style..not sure where
to start and i dont want
to write my own bot from scratch
KRS1: got an interesting email in ref.
to mastercoin
KRS1: funny, some are helpless
to it i noticed..darwin has a solution for
them
too
pankkake: blinded by greed,
they'll just open
the
thing without question
BingoBoingo: Wait, I
though Jurov was carrying
the breifcase
mircea_popescu: yeah, because people can afford
to pay a a coupla grand for airplane
tickets + hotels + etc
pankkake: would be better if davout_ delivered
the bills on your doorstep, in a metal briefcase
BingoBoingo: ArsKisS: You have like
two minutes left
to bet it on Handegg
tonight
ozbot: Source Code in
TV and Films
ArsKisS: kakobrekla, nah, i rather keep
them
pankkake: at least
the shares aren't losing value!
pankkake: bitcoin-assets.com still has btctttc
too
ArsKisS: kakobrekla, last one sounds extra shady,
two first I've heard something before.
BingoBoingo: ArsKisS: Everything is just one big market. Within
the one market
though
there are a lot of alleys where muggins happen. If you aren't careful you might even meet Rapin' Jameis
ArsKisS: how many markets
there is btw?
ArsKisS: BingoBoingo, yea, kinda. but some of
the stocks are good :/
BingoBoingo: Vircurex was hacked
twice and noone bother
to
take
the
the cryptostocks wallet from
that same sever out of pity
ArsKisS: only shows last 50
transactions
ArsKisS: mircea_popescu,
talking about Account -> Legend
BingoBoingo: Break
that into
three yes/no bets
though a b and c can all have bets such
that all
teams are favored
to win.
That creates an opportunity for great arbitrage, but...
This is Bitcoin and people still buy "mining"
mircea_popescu: ArsKisS
they know
their history won't ever look good, so why publish it
too much.
mircea_popescu: and isn't y/n more straightforward ? not
that a lot of adding shit is impossible
to do.
ArsKisS: this is silly
that
the history is just couple of pages long
ArsKisS: is
there a way you can see whole cryptostocks history somehow
mircea_popescu: cause if
the bet is "a wins" y/n,
then you deffo know what
the odds are.
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo let's
try and model.
three
teams, a, b and c. a has 20 btc on it
to win, b 15, c 27.
BingoBoingo: Well, depending on how you approach
the problem of pricing in
that situation it could be more of a nightmare of it could be a glorious consilodated market.
pankkake: "A consortium is an association of
two or more individuals" ok I guess
that works
ArsKisS: they pay some good looking dividends and
then skyrocket
mircea_popescu: how does it make pricing more straightforward ? i
thought it makes it a nightmare
BingoBoingo: Close
that bet when
the season starts and as
the season progresses let bets open for
the outcomes of individual
teams.
BingoBoingo: Well, consider a futures bet for X wins championsip of such and such league. Where
the
teams competing are fixed well in advanced of
the seasons start. 30 baseball
teams for example, you can bet on anyof
them
to win
the world series. Maybe
the pot isn't bigger, but having all of
the options in one pool makes pricing risk more straight forward.
pankkake: btc poor is
teenagers with gpus
pankkake: I
thought
tennis was
the sport for rich people. like golf
mircea_popescu: how is a single bet for 6 people better
than 6 yes/no bets ? cause larger pool ?
BingoBoingo: Bitcoin
tennis fans aren't rich enough
to balance your love for her
tits
though
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: A lot of fiat books are showing longer odds
that Halep wins.
This is
the sort of bet
though where outcomes other
than yes/no might make BitBet more interesting (meaning for example a single French open bet with
the option
to bet on each competitor, ie you run bets like
the pony
track does for some events)
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo you're better at
this
than me, can you get me what
the bookies say on
this prop ?
ozbot: BitBet - Simona Halep
to win Roland Garros
mircea_popescu: once it sprinted from 30
to 1k people see 10k with different eyes
mircea_popescu: i imagine
throwing away btc is a lot more painful
than it used
to be
too
BingoBoingo: Inaba probably laid out for yes, but obviously doesn't have
the capital he had last year...
BingoBoingo: I dunno. Around here people will pay you
to
take a horse. We really need
to get
to eating
them already.
mike_c: next
time i beat
the horse i will have a simulator in hand
to show how
the alternate model works.
mike_c: I agree weight of some
type is important. but we beat
that horse dead a couple weeks ago.
BingoBoingo: mike_c: Sports bets do benefit from some sort of attached weight
though, especially in hand egg because of injuries, arrests, and fat athletes having heart attacks
mircea_popescu: 5 minute differences or w/e may be
the round-trip
time for "x got injured" among
the bookies won't show up in
the bitbet weight anyway
mircea_popescu: mike_c
they're all in
the same
timeline so
they really don't care about
the weight
BingoBoingo: mike_c: BitBet now works fine. Just when you write a sports bet make sure
to not end
the weight at 1
mircea_popescu: allows people
to be entrepreneurs, allows risk
to be correctly handled, allows punters
to not have
to
think and be fleeced for it.
BingoBoingo: Sure, like
the cloning intrade but actually backing it on BitBet which is real
mircea_popescu: they can't sanely hold on
to
this, so
they all bet on
the yes/no bitbet according
to
their book
mircea_popescu: then
they actually
trade
their
takes on bitbet. say one got 50 btc on yes 12 on no,
the other 5 on yes 64 on no etc
mircea_popescu: so
the model for sports is,
there are say 10-12 respectable bookie
type sites, which do all
the forum spamming and general dicking around with
the punters,
BingoBoingo: They might stretch it out a while. People can be irrational longer
than we expect as Usagi being able
to list a silver instrument of some indeterminate form on a scam exchange illustrates.
mircea_popescu: but
these will lose
their shirt within months, not decades.
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo no but
the idea is,
the ops
themselves have more of a clue. obviously as it is now, every failed seo expert/14 yo running his own site
this won't be
the case
mike_c: and bitbet is welcome for
the audit :) my fee is 0.061 btc.
BingoBoingo: mircea_popescu: Sure, but given how often
the gambling
type (the kind who are so quick
to forgive SealswithClubs for
their hack) go for
the familiar over
the good it might be a decade. At least Bitcoin has plenty of
time
to fix
this.
mike_c: yeah, all
those prop bets with
terrible odds at
the bookie would be much better on bitbet like "team
to win
the championship" or super bowl props.
BingoBoingo: Maybe even more navel gazing
than bitcoin.
mircea_popescu: BingoBoingo ideally it evolves as an exchange (ie, a myriad actually honest operators do line betting and promotion, and
then meet on bitbet and hedge in a liquid market)
BingoBoingo: Sports betting I've come
to see is kind of a niche market.
jurov: i dunno, i can easily imagine football junkies prefer betting where
they know
the win in advance