793900+ entries in 0.578s
mircea_popescu: i rest
the case on
the representation of southpark.
this guy is mj, and i'm ignorant.
nubbins`: or maybe
the other way around? heh
nubbins`: carl jung would have loved
to meet
this guy
ThickAsThieves: seems
the answer
to all
these queries is Embrace Chaos
nubbins`: the part where he goes on about whether a piece is "finished" or not is good,
too
ThickAsThieves: i suspect
the editing floor contains some less respectable moments
though
ThickAsThieves: his convinction and consistency made it easy
to follow along on something so abstract
nubbins`: like how
there are no "problems" in art
nubbins`: hahah hey look, i'm practically in
this article
ThickAsThieves: anyone know a better way
to reach bluematt
than
this coingen email?
ThickAsThieves: it is pretty on point considering your efforts
to clearly define niggers.txt
mircea_popescu: dude so meta and self absorbed and awareness rasing
this.
ThickAsThieves: verb: give a negative rating
to a posting or a definition in Urbandictionary (thumbs down)
ThickAsThieves: (V) 1.
To
treat someone of
the same color with
the disrespect of racial discrimination. 2.
To disregard a respectable black person because of
their skin color
ThickAsThieves: (N) 1. An ungrateful person, behaving as if
they were entitled
to everything. 2. A white person behaving as if
they were black.
nubbins`: my endocrine glands don't produce
thc
mircea_popescu: to
think people actually BUY drugs. whatcha got endocrine glands for, ya
tits ?!
mircea_popescu: anyway, i woke up after six hour's sleep with
two article ideas in my head and ended up writing a
third in chat while
taking a break from writing my first ;/
mircea_popescu: well, science employed
to dominate idiocy is
the idiot's definition of sinister.
ThickAsThieves: having mpoe-pr on
tv just wouldnt be as profitable ad Mad Money
ThickAsThieves: it's also funny
that
this is just economics, nothing sinister
mircea_popescu: in fact, she's so novel
that people
that go by "what i've seen" generally imagine she's a poor pr.
mircea_popescu: because
the scammors can pay, and can scream, whereas
the idiots can't pay, and can scream
too, and
they will scream against
their interest.
ThickAsThieves: how often
tv picks work out
to be worse
then flipping a coin
mircea_popescu: "ll
the obscure web "financial experts", or bet picking experts" :)
mircea_popescu: this allows you
to actually extract a profit out of
the stupidity of people who are
too stupid
to realise just how stupid
they are.
mircea_popescu: that latter list is your money maker.
the merged list is where you mine for idiots.
mircea_popescu: 4. you subdivide both divisions. now you have a list of people who know you fucked up
twice,
this you discard ;
two lists of people who
think you go
tone out of
two.
these you merge ; a most valuable list of idiots who
think you got 2 out of 2.
☟︎ mircea_popescu: now you have 50% of
the list worth of people who
think you must be on
to something.
mircea_popescu: 3. you split
them in equal halves and give one half one pick,
the other your opposite.
mircea_popescu: 2. you gather leads for your "special picks" list, which you contact via email.
this is your stable of suckers.
mircea_popescu: 1. you put up a site with some content and drive a
ton of
traffic
to it. google ads, whatever.
this is your start-up cost.
mircea_popescu: incidentally,
this is how idiots like keiser work,
too. all
the obscure web "financial experts", or bet picking experts, or so on work on
the same business model :
☟︎ mike_c: that would be better
than betting on jd.
mike_c: works for sports
touts
mike_c: sell predictions.
tell half of
them it's going up,
the other half it's going down. next week, split your list again and repeat.
mike_c: herbijudlestoids: i
think
the more analysis
the better, so i hope you keep at it. i'm just not a believer.
Vexual: is doog on wot? who's he
tight with?
mircea_popescu: if memory serves i was up 50 btc or so, whenever
that was
Vexual: yeah i dont doubt
that mp
mircea_popescu: Vexual
the first
time it happened it spooked doog
to all hell.
Vexual: the lucky chap claimed
to have spotted it when he
took jd for
thousands
mike_c: like people at a baccarat
table marking player vs banker
mike_c: point being, you could backtest and find patterns
that would look profitable but are in fact completely irrelevant.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids jd is a dice site. people gamble on it. its house edge is 1%.
the returns it pays investors vary wildly.
herbijudlestoids: the simplest betting strategy is
to bet on
the low volatility bets, i.e.
those
that have a low payoff but high probability of succeeding
herbijudlestoids: is it a listed stock somewhere? or do you mean apply it
to bets on
the site itself? i couldnt see it in my mpex data
mike_c: apply your quant
to JD and see what you can predict
herbijudlestoids: mostly
through
the use of adaptive algorithms, for me, personally
mircea_popescu: predictive. ie,
that somehow a numeric manipulation of
the past yields
the future.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids his question is simply
this : both qa and
ta rely on a fundamental predictive presumption.
mike_c: ohh, so if you find patterns in a random walk,
then
they must be valid going forward
herbijudlestoids: and what does it say about success rate of
this pattern mike_c?
mike_c: If price fails
to drop more
than 10% below
the bottom of
the head-and-shoulders bottom,
then it could be forming a double bus
mike_c: your QA site is
talking about h&s
herbijudlestoids: this isnt really
technical analysis so much as quantitative analysis
herbijudlestoids: it doesnt have
to
trade down all 20
ticks, right? just a - return
mike_c: hm. just watch out for
those head & shoulder patterns, i hear
they're rough.