775300+ entries in 0.546s
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if im dependent on
the ask price at end of life
then its a speculation not investment
Bugpowdurr: Also damn, I'm on a network
that doesn't let me send BTC.
Bugpowdurr: but doesn't at
the moment due
to unannounced options segregation
ThickAsThieves: herb
the problem with all
that really is you can't apply your numbers without making assumptions, but in fact, only one assumption can be made, you're making
too many assumptions
Bugpowdurr: I was
thinking
that someone could deduce whether
the whale short
the puts had been stopped out by MKOPT / EXERCISE a number of options and see how many were assigned
to him vs. other.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids only if mpoe is
to close shop in 10 years.
Bugpowdurr: "Bear in mind
that whenever someone exercises options of your symbol you will be allocated a portion of
the executions corresponding
to your
total share of created contracts for
that symbol.
Thus if you create 100 O.BTCUSD.C50T and someone else creates 150, in case
there's an execution of 50 contracts you will be assigned 20 of
those."
mircea_popescu: normally executions are distributed
to actual held options randomly, but atm im holding
the pre 14th set apart.
mircea_popescu: Bugpowdurr how would
they force someone's short position anyway ?
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: if
the price i pay
today for MPOE is more
than
the
total amount of gains
that MPOE can bring in over say, 10 years,
then it is a bad investment for people looking for assets
to invest in for 10 years
Bugpowdurr: And in
theory, a 3rd party could force exercise of someone else's short position by mkopt -> exercise chains?
mircea_popescu: atm
the entire option
thing is quarantined because of
the price signal bs
Bugpowdurr: If
there are 3000 contracts of an option outstanding sold
to bot,
then another user creates another 500 contracts, and
then exercises
them without selling
them, does
that force
the exercise of a fraction of
the previously sold options?
mircea_popescu: in short...
this is a complete nonsensical mess of wires sticking out.
ThickAsThieves: for an many
things as herb covered he only scratched
the surface
mircea_popescu: you'd have
to compare s.mpoe mkt cap with an actual corp's mktcap - book value
mircea_popescu: for
that matter, even
the s.mpoe mkt cap comparison
to an actual comp is broken.
mircea_popescu: no other business in
the history of business sits in
this position of "can only
turn a profit"
mircea_popescu: trying
to compare
those Ys with
these Ys misses both points.
mircea_popescu: mpoe is so structured shareholders can only make a gain.
thus Y > 0, X =0.
mircea_popescu: anyway, let's consider
the historical case as it played out. s.mpoe vs pmbs
herbijudlestoids: youre saying something like...the rate of return is not important,
this other rate,
the rate at which an economic activity can "conserve" bitcoins
herbijudlestoids: im asking. you said focus on rate of conservation...i fail
to see why i would invest in any security in
that case, rather
than investing in good wallet practices etc
mircea_popescu: but i suspect
this is
the overarching point here : 1% gains over a century are immense,
mircea_popescu: mike_c
this is actually
true,
tho at
the rate we're going by
the
time btc moneyness reaches balance
the remaining inflation will indeed be very low
mike_c: plus inflation. bitcoins in
the sofa will shrink on a % basis.
chetty: well mine has
this silly habit of growing when I don't look
too often :)
mircea_popescu: why do people bet on bitbet ? "so
they can't spend
the btc", sez someone yest.
mircea_popescu: but im attacking herbi because he's much
too immersed into fiat nonsense.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: why do i need
to buy a security
then?
the rate of conservation for holding bitcoin is 100%
mircea_popescu: well it's all highly speculative, nobody has
the first inkling wtf is going on here.
Duffer1: do you post
that info anywhere MP?
herbijudlestoids: if
the price of S.MPOE does not include growth,
then why am i paying more
than its dividend value for it?
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids seems
to me all notions of growth are imported from fiat.
mircea_popescu: so inasmuch as google is worth 1% of all dollars
today and 1% of all dollars in 2050, a high price of google stock is warranted at all points because google is important
herbijudlestoids: there is no fiat involved and i explicitly state so at
the end of
the article
mike_c: you gotta
thicken your skin a bit. you get riled
too easy.
mircea_popescu: a high price in btc does not reflect an expectation of
that
thing
to grow.
herbijudlestoids: misread
the post, misunderstood
the point, derogate me based on
that
mircea_popescu: fwiw, i don't
think
the entire "growth" bs is worth
two shits.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: see
that is useful feedback which i appreciate. your earlier comments just get my grill.
mike_c: add
those
thoughts
to your post. it will improve it. blog readers like opinions with
their stats.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: well it depends i guess. mircea_popescu was
telling me something about 1% being
the natural RoR in bitcoin under one calculation but in a different calculation 1000s of %
mike_c: you want an opinion out of me? s.nsa is underpriced. go ahead and
trade on it.
benkay: what's weird about
talking your book?
benkay: yeah and
talk your book
Duffer1: Herbi you should paywall your blog, make
them work for it ^.^
benkay: 'cause nobody's going
to read your blog
mike_c: why not do both?
talk your book.
herbijudlestoids: you guys sure are weird sometimes. benkay,
the point of
the article is
to highlight
things
that people might not know about. if i had some info or opinoin
that MPOE was undervalued or overvalued, why would i put it on
the blog for morons
to see instead of just buying or selling MPOE?
benkay: but nearly always forget
that
the interpretation is where
the real money's at
benkay: quants like programmers want
to be valued because
they can make
the numbers do stuff
mike_c: ok, so forget
the article. i am curious what your opinion is.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: whether or not i have an opinion really has shit all
to do with
the article
mike_c: so you have no opinion on
the price? you are just a calculator?
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: im not saying
too high lol, im saying *this is what
the market is implying EPS growth will be*
mike_c: i don't care if you are saying it was
too high, you are entitled
to your opinion.
benkay: humans operating in
those fields frequently lose
the ability
to communicate with others outside of
those narrow, ultraspecialized fields.
benkay: the curse of
technical fields
herbijudlestoids: "This premium over normal fair values (compare
to our earlier SPY example) assigned by
the market under assumptions
that EPS growth will be very large. Investors who pay
the premium
today will be rewarded with reasonable returns only if
the actual future EPS growth averages at or above
this level for a significant period of
time. Otherwise
the investment can reasonably be expected
to provide a poor long
term retur
mike_c: very very seems
to be impying
too high :)
mike_c: "that
the Market Implied EPS Growth rate for S.MPOE is very, very high."
mike_c: "We are
talking a range of 126% - 170% here" << i read into
this a
tone saying it was
too high. not what you were implying?
herbijudlestoids: if you can somehow prove
the price is (or isnt) locally efficient,
then we can
talk about how informative
the price is
herbijudlestoids: theres nowhere
that says its overvalued.
the point is, you get paid a decent long
term return if
the implied EPS is <= actual future EPS. if its >
then you dont.
herbijudlestoids: i said, if we assume, for
the sake of an experiment,
that
the market has priced efficiently,
then
this is what its implying as EPS growth
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: if what you quoted is what you
took away from
the blog post, i guess i must suck at communicating.
herbijudlestoids: guise, i setup a page
to grep
the log.bitcoin-assets for mentions of my name
mircea_popescu: <mike_c> i love quants. "if we assume
the market is correctly pricing
this stock,
then we can derive
that
this stock is overpriced" :) >> pretty much it.
benkay: back
test all
the
things
mike_c: ;;later
tell herbijudlestoids it would be interesting
to analyze s.mpoe price based on 2012 earnings and
then see how
that analysis would have performed over 2013.
mike_c: i love quants. "if we assume
the market is correctly pricing
this stock,
then we can derive
that
this stock is overpriced" :)
nubbins`: heh, had
to check. apparently not :(
ThickAsThieves: it has Bitcorn,
the only naysayer from
the NY hearings
nubbins`: gg, didn't even see
that coming :D
ozbot: Pipe bomb handed back
to passenger Skylar Murphy by airport guard - Edmonton - CBC News
nubbins`: always
the bridesmaid, never
the bride
nubbins`: maybe
the second worst move possible