775200+ entries in 0.479s
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: like i said earlier. i dont view
this as an argument, when i question it is just
to learn. i am always willing
to consider an opinion or formula or whatever, even if i dont accept it in
the end.
mircea_popescu: as in, not have
to rollover any day/week/whatever loans
mike_c: also,
they aren't really "bots". just computer programs.
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids anyway, don't let any of
the foregoing impugn on your intelligence or usefulness for
the space.
mike_c: fire up
the day
trading bots
mike_c: however
the altcoin market.. getting
tight! 100 satoshi spread on x-bt
herbijudlestoids: the next
tells me you can infer future performance from
the past inefficient price
ThickAsThieves: it would be less crazy
to look at past data
to see what
that implies for
the future
mircea_popescu: (which again is proven by
the diff curve, with its attendant problems, and by
the fiat/btc prices, and by a
thousand other glimmers)
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids i r sorry but it is. pretty much any assumption of market efficiency in any bitcoin market is
touched in
the head.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: so, for
the sake of experiment, we are not allowed
to make assumption
that MPOE price is locally efficient?
thats stupid now?
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids stop being so fragile. he just said you're presuming
the market is efficient and
therefore oyu're stupid
herbijudlestoids: mike_c originally said
that i assumed
the market was efficient and
therefore MPOE was overpriced. i did not saythat.
mircea_popescu: currently bitcoin is woefully inefficient : people get beaten into shit,
they
turn around and reimplement
the same
thing.
mircea_popescu: see ?
that's what mike_c was basically saying originally.
mircea_popescu: obviously
the seats in
the one restaurant which serves food go by "how much people hungry can afford
to pay"
herbijudlestoids: MPOE is infinitely valuable compared
to scams. sure. no worries, no argument.
herbijudlestoids: by
the avg asset do you mean
the shite on havelock or whatever?
mircea_popescu: the value of
the only asset which yields a + is pretty muchj... infinite
KRS-One: love
that pic of magical
tux
herbijudlestoids: so? still waiting
to understand how my notion of "growth" is imported from fiat and why i should focus on
the "rate of conservation"
mircea_popescu: can't fucking apply numeric methods on something
this conceptually fragmented.
mircea_popescu: and obviously, "dude it's a scam
through and
through" is a
third.
mircea_popescu: for
that matter,
the other angle i can't reduce or disprove is "very small certain income > any other alternative, seeing how all other assets are -EV so far"
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: store of value which is hoardable without restricting
the economy, non dilutable, no counterparty risk, etc
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids you seem strangely immune
to
the currency notion.
herbijudlestoids: then investors will underperform relative
to holding cash or
the index
herbijudlestoids: if
the economic activity (or lack
theroef) in
those assets does not provide an appropriate amount of EPS growth
mircea_popescu: but yes,
to complete
the story : for all you know s.mpoe is
the fractionary reserve of
the btc superrich. for all you know s.mpoe is
the doge of assets. for all you know s.mpoe is
the golden
ticket people dream with.
mike_c: is
TWTR value derived from its economic activity or from pipe dreams about future potential?
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids
there's no compelling reason
to believe
the price of mpoe isn't derived from its value as a currency.
herbijudlestoids: ok maybe i am making some assumptions, but i
think
those assumptions: 1.
that
the price of MPOE is derived from something, 2.
that MPOE is an economic entity 3.
that
the price of MPOE is derived from
that economic activity
mircea_popescu: o btw...
the bitcoin guild in rift ? biggest
thing on server.
mircea_popescu: and in general,
the safe assumptions in fiat are at
the very least suspect in btc.
mircea_popescu: wherein a number of large players keep pushing back and forth holdings of s.mpoe as
tokens of credit
mircea_popescu: such as for instance as roughly
the equivalent of a discounted us fed
mike_c: the havelock market implies a lot of
things
herbijudlestoids: how do i know what...that
the price of MPOE is derived from economic activities?
mircea_popescu: (don't get me wrong, i get
the ample wtftude involved here. i humbly submit it's not because of me but because of fundamental issues stemming from
the nature of btc)
Duffer1: mike_c ah
thanks i misread conservation
mircea_popescu: what makes you
think you can calculate
the eps growth rate implied by
the market ?
mircea_popescu: herbijudlestoids perhaps not
the best expression of
the concept, but anyway.
mike_c: Duffer1 :)
that's
the second
time. are you deliberately misspelling conservation?
herbijudlestoids: cos you said some bullshit about my focus on growth coming from fiat and
that i should focus on
the rate of conservation
ThickAsThieves: cuz someone said if
things were different,
things would be different or such
mircea_popescu: o wait. we are arguing because you're claiming you can calculate
the eps growth.
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: showing what
the market is implying
the EPS growth rate will be on an infinite horizon...
ThickAsThieves: i
think it's like a currency rate burdened by indeterminable inflation rates
mircea_popescu: ThickAsThieves it's an indetermination (inf/inf) it'll have
to be somehow resolved
mircea_popescu: this will need more research rather
than simple c/p stuff
that really doesn't work in fiat anyway
mircea_popescu: basically
the lot of what i'm saying is
that
there are no acceptable models
to valuate here.
mircea_popescu: this makes
the substitute p/b for any other way
to get btc in
the indefinite future also properly infinite.
mircea_popescu: if one continues
to interpolate
the current difficulty of mining curve,
mircea_popescu: whenever you seem just about
to get it you retreat
to declaring you ain't getting it
herbijudlestoids: if yall were
trying
to explain something...or make me see some kind of light, im not seeing it
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i am
totally fine with valuing MPOE on a book value basis. so what is
the current P/B multiple?
herbijudlestoids: mircea_popescu: i said *asset*. any of
them, it doesnt matter.
mike_c: underperform compared
to what
though.
herbijudlestoids: mike_c: i
thought
the article ...i just wrote...makes it pretty clear? if youre buying one asset based on
the 6 month historicals,
then
the future has
to play out in a certain way for your investment
to not underperform.
mike_c: i said
the same historicals. obviously no one "knows"
the future rate of return.
herbijudlestoids: if you know
the future rate of return will be
the same
then yes
mike_c: no, i'm
talking about with
the same historicals (price and eps for last 6 months)
herbijudlestoids: uh...so youre
talking about
two securities, both with
the same known future rate of return?
mike_c: hm,
try
this. would s.mpoe returning 1% a year be
the same
to you as 7C returning 1% a year?
mike_c: i'm not claiming
that.
herbijudlestoids: so, S.MPOE priced at 100BTC per share is just as good an investment as S.MPOE at 0.0000001 per share
then
mike_c: well,
that was part of his point.
the pmb will necessarily decay. mpoe won't.